The document provides an outlook on global markets and asset classes for July 2012 from The Henley Group. It summarizes the recent meeting of the Council of Europe regarding the eurozone crisis, noting there was no formal agreement reached. It then provides an overview and assessment of various asset classes, including fixed income, currencies, property, equities, and commodities, noting concerns about the sustainability of government and private debts in developed economies while maintaining a neutral stance on property and selective positive views on other assets.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic and market outlook for July 2012. It summarizes that European governments and banks are insolvent, US governments and banks also face challenges, and foreigners are abandoning the US dollar in favor of alternatives like gold. While central banks are providing liquidity, high debt levels, weak growth, and political uncertainties persist as major concerns. The outlook remains negative across many asset classes.
The document provides an outlook on global markets and asset classes for May 2012 from The Henley Group. Key points include:
- The period of calm in European markets following ECB intervention was short-lived as concerns over Spain's debt resurfaced.
- Problems facing the global economy like high debt levels remain systemic and structural.
- Spanish debt levels and unemployment are high while property markets and banks are struggling.
- Many banks remain highly leveraged which could lead to insolvency if losses are incurred.
- Political changes in Europe may undermine austerity efforts, adding further uncertainty.
- Precious metals and miners' shares are recommended as long term holdings.
The document provides an outlook on global markets and asset classes for June 2012. It discusses ongoing issues in Europe, including uncertainty around Greece's future in the eurozone. It also mentions weakness in China's economy and concerns around derivatives exposures and potential defaults. Overall, the outlook remains cautious due to ongoing risks and challenges around the world.
The document provides an overview of the monthly market outlook for June 2012. It discusses the ongoing crisis in Europe, with a focus on the elections in Greece and France and how they have changed Europe profoundly. It notes the short-term focus remains on Europe and how Germany is now isolated in its refusal to support growth measures. It also briefly touches on concerns around Greece running out of money, Spain's banking troubles, and slowing growth in China. In conclusion, it states the fate of Greece and the euro remain the major cliffhangers for the month.
The document summarizes the February 2012 monthly market outlook from investment firm The Henley Group. It discusses the ongoing negotiations between Greece and its hedge fund creditors over restructuring Greek sovereign debt. It also covers the European Central Bank providing liquidity to European banks and governments to alleviate financing pressures as several countries need to refinance hundreds of billions in debt in the coming months. The report expresses concern about inflation risks from the rapid expansion of central bank balance sheets and recommends accumulating gold and silver as a hedge.
This document provides an outlook on global markets for January 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses challenges and risks across various asset classes including fixed income, currencies, property, and equities in major regions. Some of the main points covered include ongoing issues in the Eurozone debt crisis, concerns about hard landings in China, the fragile state of the US economy, and political risks remaining high in Europe. Overall the outlook maintains a cautious stance due to numerous risks and uncertainties in the global economic and market environment.
The document provides an overview and assessment of various global markets and asset classes in May 2012. It notes that the brief period of calm in European markets following ECB intervention had ended, with concerns shifting from Greece to problems in Spain. Fixed income investments are viewed negatively due to high debt levels and political uncertainty in Europe. Property prices are seen as neutral overall, with weakness in some areas offset by strength in others like Asia and London. US and Japanese equities are given negative and positive outlooks respectively, based on country-specific economic factors.
The document provides a summary of the monthly market outlook for October 2012. It discusses that September 2012 was one of the most important months for markets since 2008, with the ECB and Fed announcing open-ended unlimited monetary stimulus. It also summarizes views on various asset classes, including a negative outlook for fixed income given low government bond yields, and a neutral outlook for property with a focus on specialized assets.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic and market outlook for July 2012. It summarizes that European governments and banks are insolvent, US governments and banks also face challenges, and foreigners are abandoning the US dollar in favor of alternatives like gold. While central banks are providing liquidity, high debt levels, weak growth, and political uncertainties persist as major concerns. The outlook remains negative across many asset classes.
The document provides an outlook on global markets and asset classes for May 2012 from The Henley Group. Key points include:
- The period of calm in European markets following ECB intervention was short-lived as concerns over Spain's debt resurfaced.
- Problems facing the global economy like high debt levels remain systemic and structural.
- Spanish debt levels and unemployment are high while property markets and banks are struggling.
- Many banks remain highly leveraged which could lead to insolvency if losses are incurred.
- Political changes in Europe may undermine austerity efforts, adding further uncertainty.
- Precious metals and miners' shares are recommended as long term holdings.
The document provides an outlook on global markets and asset classes for June 2012. It discusses ongoing issues in Europe, including uncertainty around Greece's future in the eurozone. It also mentions weakness in China's economy and concerns around derivatives exposures and potential defaults. Overall, the outlook remains cautious due to ongoing risks and challenges around the world.
The document provides an overview of the monthly market outlook for June 2012. It discusses the ongoing crisis in Europe, with a focus on the elections in Greece and France and how they have changed Europe profoundly. It notes the short-term focus remains on Europe and how Germany is now isolated in its refusal to support growth measures. It also briefly touches on concerns around Greece running out of money, Spain's banking troubles, and slowing growth in China. In conclusion, it states the fate of Greece and the euro remain the major cliffhangers for the month.
The document summarizes the February 2012 monthly market outlook from investment firm The Henley Group. It discusses the ongoing negotiations between Greece and its hedge fund creditors over restructuring Greek sovereign debt. It also covers the European Central Bank providing liquidity to European banks and governments to alleviate financing pressures as several countries need to refinance hundreds of billions in debt in the coming months. The report expresses concern about inflation risks from the rapid expansion of central bank balance sheets and recommends accumulating gold and silver as a hedge.
This document provides an outlook on global markets for January 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses challenges and risks across various asset classes including fixed income, currencies, property, and equities in major regions. Some of the main points covered include ongoing issues in the Eurozone debt crisis, concerns about hard landings in China, the fragile state of the US economy, and political risks remaining high in Europe. Overall the outlook maintains a cautious stance due to numerous risks and uncertainties in the global economic and market environment.
The document provides an overview and assessment of various global markets and asset classes in May 2012. It notes that the brief period of calm in European markets following ECB intervention had ended, with concerns shifting from Greece to problems in Spain. Fixed income investments are viewed negatively due to high debt levels and political uncertainty in Europe. Property prices are seen as neutral overall, with weakness in some areas offset by strength in others like Asia and London. US and Japanese equities are given negative and positive outlooks respectively, based on country-specific economic factors.
The document provides a summary of the monthly market outlook for October 2012. It discusses that September 2012 was one of the most important months for markets since 2008, with the ECB and Fed announcing open-ended unlimited monetary stimulus. It also summarizes views on various asset classes, including a negative outlook for fixed income given low government bond yields, and a neutral outlook for property with a focus on specialized assets.
The document summarizes the October 2012 monthly market outlook from The Henley Group. It discusses how September 2012 was one of the most important months for markets since 2008, with the ECB and Fed announcing open-ended monetary stimulus. It predicts this will accelerate currency debasement and a potential hyperinflation. Real assets like precious metals are expected to perform well due to monetary stimulus inflating prices, while bonds and cash are risky. Geopolitical tensions are also discussed.
The document provides an overview and assessment of various asset classes and markets for November 2011. It notes that European politicians seemed to start addressing the arithmetic of their debt crisis in October but the situation has since degenerated into a "tragic farce". Fixed income is viewed negatively due to downgrades in Europe and high funding costs in China negatively impacting businesses. Property prices are seen as stabilized after falls in 2009 but fundamentals remain weak in some areas. Equities are given a neutral outlook with weaknesses for the US noted around its fiscal position and housing market.
The document summarizes the February 2012 outlook from The Henley Group. It discusses the ongoing negotiations between Greece and its hedge fund creditors over restructuring Greek sovereign debt. It also summarizes the European Central Bank providing nearly half a trillion euros to the European banking system to relieve financing pressures as several countries and banks have had their credit ratings downgraded. The outlook remains negative on the US dollar, British pound, and euro over the medium to long term.
The document provides an overview of the global economic and political outlook for March 2012. It discusses the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, particularly focusing on Greece's struggling economy and negotiations over private sector involvement in debt relief. It notes rising gold and silver prices as a sign of uncertainty. The document also critiques policies in the US that undermine civil liberties and allow large banks and corporations to avoid accountability. It presents an uncertain and unstable political and economic landscape globally.
The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for August 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses concerns around ongoing weakness in the Eurozone and prospects of hyperinflation. Fixed income markets remain challenging with central banks trying to stimulate growth through low rates. Cautious outlook on property markets except for prime central London, with concerns around overvaluation in some markets like India, Brazil, and parts of China.
The document provides an update on the precious metals markets from May 1st, 2012. It discusses that gold has been trading sideways between $1,630 to $1,680, and that a move above $1,680 could push prices up to $1,800 an ounce. Silver has also been relatively stable, trading between $31 to $32 an ounce. The newsletter recommends continuing to buy gold and silver in small amounts to average purchase prices, as manipulation by governments and central banks could cause sharp price rises in the future. It also announces free shipping for orders over 3,500 euros in their online shop.
Deutsche Bank is a leading global investment bank with operations in over 70 countries. It offers a full range of financial services to corporate and individual clients. Deutsche Bank aims to be a leading global provider of financial solutions and create lasting value for its stakeholders. It has strong regional diversification with substantial revenue from major world regions. Deutsche Bank continues to invest in talent, technology, and social responsibility to build on its long-term success.
This document provides an economic outlook and investment outlook for 2012. Some key points:
- The US economy is expected to grow around 2% in 2012, supported by solid business spending and modest consumer spending. Inflation may recede early in the year.
- Stocks are expected to post gains of 8-12% in 2012, supported by mid-to-high single digit earnings growth as sentiment improves to converge with economic data.
- Government and corporate bond yields are expected to rise over the course of the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending around 3%. The gap between government and corporate bond yields is expected to narrow.
- Major policy events in Europe, China, and
Deutsche Bank was founded in 1870 in Germany and has expanded to have a presence in 72 countries across all continents. It has over 80,000 employees and its headquarters are in Frankfurt, Germany. The bank is led by CEO Josef Ackermann and is looking to further expand its markets in regions like the Middle East, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and Asia Pacific. Deutsche Bank first started operations in India in 1980.
Etude PwC sur les transactions dans les services financiers en Europe au T2 2012PwC France
Sharing Deal Insight fournit des perspectives sur les dernières tendances et les futurs développements dans les services financiers. PwC a analysé les données fournies par mergermarket, Reuters et Dealogic de transactions annoncées et celles en attente de clôture au deuxième trimestre 2012. Les transactions analysées portent sur une part d’acquisition supérieure à 30% - ou sur une part importante donnant le contrôle effectif à l’acquéreur.
The document discusses lessons that can be learned from Germany's stable mortgage market. It finds that Germany avoided speculation through conservative lending with standard products like low LTV loans and 30-year annuities. Regional housing prices rose steadily rather than booming. Germany's Pfandbrief covered bond program provided very stable long-term funding. Overall, Germany's conservative, standardized approach helped its mortgage market withstand the financial crisis better than other European countries.
1) European banks loaded up on risky mortgage-backed securities from the US financial crisis and sovereign debt from struggling eurozone countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain.
2) This exposed the European banking system to major losses as the sovereign debt crisis intensified and economies weakened. Stock indices for major European banks have declined sharply.
3) The risks to the European financial system have grown as the European Central Bank has had to intervene in markets to suppress borrowing costs for troubled eurozone countries like Greece. This calls into question risk models and assumptions of safety regarding government debt.
Emily Cote's presentation for SMBTV Workshop #2 on Social Media for Nonprofits. Emily offers tips on how to unify many projects under one brand, and ways to maximize social media marketing impact on a small budget.
The document discusses user experience (UX) design and provides examples from Amazon. It describes the role of a UX designer as combining graphic design, UI design, problem solving, and an understanding of development platforms. It also emphasizes understanding how and why users will interact with products. The document outlines Amazon's simplification of its checkout process from requiring registration to a single "Continue" button, which increased sales by $300 million in one year. It lists keys to a good user experience as knowing what users should do, removing obstacles, designing for all devices, refining iteratively, and sometimes ignoring experts.
Sarah Gordon of Farmie Market's presentation for SMBTV #15. Sarah is the owner of Farmie Market, and offered up tips for balancing promotion and business management through time management.
El documento describe las características fundamentales de las células. Explica que las células son la unidad básica de la vida, que pueden ser procariotas u eucariotas de tipo animal o vegetal. Además, las células tienen una composición química y estructura definida, con material genético y proteínas, y realizan funciones vitales como la nutrición, el crecimiento y la evolución.
Indonesian dances reflect the country's diverse cultures and ethnicities, with dances from Bali often relating to religion. Architecture also varies between ethnic groups and regions. In contrast, dances in the US are not typically based on environment or meaning, and housing styles differ based on location rather than ethnicity. Recreational activities in Switzerland include hiking, skiing, and rock climbing in the rural landscapes, unlike more urban US activities centered around sports. Culture and etiquette in Algeria are heavily influenced by Islam, unlike in the more secular US.
What's the major challenge with social media for local businesses? Competing not just with other local competitors, but with the social media feeds of friends and family. You need to be strategic! Claim your territory, optimize your presence, share great content, and engage your followers.
This document discusses various social media tools and features provided by Twitter and Facebook that can be used to engage users and drive traffic. It covers Twitter features like embedded tweets, timelines and cards that allow sharing content and metadata. It also discusses Facebook tools like like, share and comment buttons, open graph protocol and APIs that enable custom integrations and actions. The document provides examples and documentation links for developers to utilize these social media features.
The Overlap of Social Media with the National Labor Relations Act- Michael Bi...SMBTechValley
This document discusses how the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) protects employees' rights to engage in protected concerted activities, even without a union. It provides examples of the NLRB finding social media posts to be protected when discussing workplace issues and conditions. However, the NLRB has also ruled that some social media posts lose protection due to inappropriate or harassing conduct. The document concludes by noting a recent NLRB decision found an employer's social media policy to be too broad in restricting protected concerted communications.
Gender affects politics and media coverage in several ways. Women candidates tend to receive more coverage focused on their novelty as the first woman in their role, as well as more coverage of their personal traits and political issues. In contrast, men are rarely referred to by their gender alone because they are the norm. Some critics argue that the media treats men and women politicians equally, but comparisons of coverage show Obama portrayed positively as a superhero while Clinton is negatively depicted as an ugly bride, emphasizing differences in coverage by gender.
Ellis medicine Social Media Strategy - Presenter Matt Van PeltSMBTechValley
Matt Van Pelt's presentation for SMBTV's second workshop on Social Media for Nonprofits. Matt presents some great ways to use low budget options like blogging to make an impact, and how to turn customer service issues into brand wins.
The document summarizes the October 2012 monthly market outlook from The Henley Group. It discusses how September 2012 was one of the most important months for markets since 2008, with the ECB and Fed announcing open-ended monetary stimulus. It predicts this will accelerate currency debasement and a potential hyperinflation. Real assets like precious metals are expected to perform well due to monetary stimulus inflating prices, while bonds and cash are risky. Geopolitical tensions are also discussed.
The document provides an overview and assessment of various asset classes and markets for November 2011. It notes that European politicians seemed to start addressing the arithmetic of their debt crisis in October but the situation has since degenerated into a "tragic farce". Fixed income is viewed negatively due to downgrades in Europe and high funding costs in China negatively impacting businesses. Property prices are seen as stabilized after falls in 2009 but fundamentals remain weak in some areas. Equities are given a neutral outlook with weaknesses for the US noted around its fiscal position and housing market.
The document summarizes the February 2012 outlook from The Henley Group. It discusses the ongoing negotiations between Greece and its hedge fund creditors over restructuring Greek sovereign debt. It also summarizes the European Central Bank providing nearly half a trillion euros to the European banking system to relieve financing pressures as several countries and banks have had their credit ratings downgraded. The outlook remains negative on the US dollar, British pound, and euro over the medium to long term.
The document provides an overview of the global economic and political outlook for March 2012. It discusses the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, particularly focusing on Greece's struggling economy and negotiations over private sector involvement in debt relief. It notes rising gold and silver prices as a sign of uncertainty. The document also critiques policies in the US that undermine civil liberties and allow large banks and corporations to avoid accountability. It presents an uncertain and unstable political and economic landscape globally.
The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for August 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses concerns around ongoing weakness in the Eurozone and prospects of hyperinflation. Fixed income markets remain challenging with central banks trying to stimulate growth through low rates. Cautious outlook on property markets except for prime central London, with concerns around overvaluation in some markets like India, Brazil, and parts of China.
The document provides an update on the precious metals markets from May 1st, 2012. It discusses that gold has been trading sideways between $1,630 to $1,680, and that a move above $1,680 could push prices up to $1,800 an ounce. Silver has also been relatively stable, trading between $31 to $32 an ounce. The newsletter recommends continuing to buy gold and silver in small amounts to average purchase prices, as manipulation by governments and central banks could cause sharp price rises in the future. It also announces free shipping for orders over 3,500 euros in their online shop.
Deutsche Bank is a leading global investment bank with operations in over 70 countries. It offers a full range of financial services to corporate and individual clients. Deutsche Bank aims to be a leading global provider of financial solutions and create lasting value for its stakeholders. It has strong regional diversification with substantial revenue from major world regions. Deutsche Bank continues to invest in talent, technology, and social responsibility to build on its long-term success.
This document provides an economic outlook and investment outlook for 2012. Some key points:
- The US economy is expected to grow around 2% in 2012, supported by solid business spending and modest consumer spending. Inflation may recede early in the year.
- Stocks are expected to post gains of 8-12% in 2012, supported by mid-to-high single digit earnings growth as sentiment improves to converge with economic data.
- Government and corporate bond yields are expected to rise over the course of the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending around 3%. The gap between government and corporate bond yields is expected to narrow.
- Major policy events in Europe, China, and
Deutsche Bank was founded in 1870 in Germany and has expanded to have a presence in 72 countries across all continents. It has over 80,000 employees and its headquarters are in Frankfurt, Germany. The bank is led by CEO Josef Ackermann and is looking to further expand its markets in regions like the Middle East, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and Asia Pacific. Deutsche Bank first started operations in India in 1980.
Etude PwC sur les transactions dans les services financiers en Europe au T2 2012PwC France
Sharing Deal Insight fournit des perspectives sur les dernières tendances et les futurs développements dans les services financiers. PwC a analysé les données fournies par mergermarket, Reuters et Dealogic de transactions annoncées et celles en attente de clôture au deuxième trimestre 2012. Les transactions analysées portent sur une part d’acquisition supérieure à 30% - ou sur une part importante donnant le contrôle effectif à l’acquéreur.
The document discusses lessons that can be learned from Germany's stable mortgage market. It finds that Germany avoided speculation through conservative lending with standard products like low LTV loans and 30-year annuities. Regional housing prices rose steadily rather than booming. Germany's Pfandbrief covered bond program provided very stable long-term funding. Overall, Germany's conservative, standardized approach helped its mortgage market withstand the financial crisis better than other European countries.
1) European banks loaded up on risky mortgage-backed securities from the US financial crisis and sovereign debt from struggling eurozone countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain.
2) This exposed the European banking system to major losses as the sovereign debt crisis intensified and economies weakened. Stock indices for major European banks have declined sharply.
3) The risks to the European financial system have grown as the European Central Bank has had to intervene in markets to suppress borrowing costs for troubled eurozone countries like Greece. This calls into question risk models and assumptions of safety regarding government debt.
Emily Cote's presentation for SMBTV Workshop #2 on Social Media for Nonprofits. Emily offers tips on how to unify many projects under one brand, and ways to maximize social media marketing impact on a small budget.
The document discusses user experience (UX) design and provides examples from Amazon. It describes the role of a UX designer as combining graphic design, UI design, problem solving, and an understanding of development platforms. It also emphasizes understanding how and why users will interact with products. The document outlines Amazon's simplification of its checkout process from requiring registration to a single "Continue" button, which increased sales by $300 million in one year. It lists keys to a good user experience as knowing what users should do, removing obstacles, designing for all devices, refining iteratively, and sometimes ignoring experts.
Sarah Gordon of Farmie Market's presentation for SMBTV #15. Sarah is the owner of Farmie Market, and offered up tips for balancing promotion and business management through time management.
El documento describe las características fundamentales de las células. Explica que las células son la unidad básica de la vida, que pueden ser procariotas u eucariotas de tipo animal o vegetal. Además, las células tienen una composición química y estructura definida, con material genético y proteínas, y realizan funciones vitales como la nutrición, el crecimiento y la evolución.
Indonesian dances reflect the country's diverse cultures and ethnicities, with dances from Bali often relating to religion. Architecture also varies between ethnic groups and regions. In contrast, dances in the US are not typically based on environment or meaning, and housing styles differ based on location rather than ethnicity. Recreational activities in Switzerland include hiking, skiing, and rock climbing in the rural landscapes, unlike more urban US activities centered around sports. Culture and etiquette in Algeria are heavily influenced by Islam, unlike in the more secular US.
What's the major challenge with social media for local businesses? Competing not just with other local competitors, but with the social media feeds of friends and family. You need to be strategic! Claim your territory, optimize your presence, share great content, and engage your followers.
This document discusses various social media tools and features provided by Twitter and Facebook that can be used to engage users and drive traffic. It covers Twitter features like embedded tweets, timelines and cards that allow sharing content and metadata. It also discusses Facebook tools like like, share and comment buttons, open graph protocol and APIs that enable custom integrations and actions. The document provides examples and documentation links for developers to utilize these social media features.
The Overlap of Social Media with the National Labor Relations Act- Michael Bi...SMBTechValley
This document discusses how the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) protects employees' rights to engage in protected concerted activities, even without a union. It provides examples of the NLRB finding social media posts to be protected when discussing workplace issues and conditions. However, the NLRB has also ruled that some social media posts lose protection due to inappropriate or harassing conduct. The document concludes by noting a recent NLRB decision found an employer's social media policy to be too broad in restricting protected concerted communications.
Gender affects politics and media coverage in several ways. Women candidates tend to receive more coverage focused on their novelty as the first woman in their role, as well as more coverage of their personal traits and political issues. In contrast, men are rarely referred to by their gender alone because they are the norm. Some critics argue that the media treats men and women politicians equally, but comparisons of coverage show Obama portrayed positively as a superhero while Clinton is negatively depicted as an ugly bride, emphasizing differences in coverage by gender.
Ellis medicine Social Media Strategy - Presenter Matt Van PeltSMBTechValley
Matt Van Pelt's presentation for SMBTV's second workshop on Social Media for Nonprofits. Matt presents some great ways to use low budget options like blogging to make an impact, and how to turn customer service issues into brand wins.
The document provides a summary of the monthly market outlook for October 2012. It discusses that September 2012 was one of the most important months for markets since 2008, with the ECB and Fed announcing open-ended unlimited monetary stimulus. It also summarizes views on various asset classes, including a negative outlook for fixed income given low government bond yields, and a neutral outlook for property with a focus on specialized assets.
The document provides an overview of the global economic and political outlook for November 2012. It notes that the next few months could see significant changes or events, as issues in the US, China, Europe and elsewhere may be coming to a head. The outlook remains uncertain, as America faces its "fiscal cliff" and debt ceiling, China transitions to new leadership, and debt problems continue to threaten Greece, Spain and the eurozone more broadly. However, the IMF may be preparing for reforms to the broken monetary system by revisiting an alternative proposed in the 1930s.
The document provides an overview and assessment of various asset classes and geopolitical issues for the month of November 2012 by The Henley Group. It notes that the next few months bring uncertainty from leadership transitions in the US and China as well as ongoing debt issues in Europe and America. Fixed income is viewed negatively due to low yields and inflation risks. Property is given a neutral assessment with selective opportunities. Currencies are predicted to further devalue against commodities and the Yen is seen as a safe haven.
The document provides an overview and assessment of various asset classes and geopolitical issues for the month of November 2012 by The Henley Group. It notes that the next few months bring uncertainty from leadership transitions in the US and China as well as ongoing debt issues in Europe and America. Fixed income is viewed negatively due to risks of higher inflation from monetary easing. Property is given a neutral assessment with selective opportunities seen in Asia.
Henley November Outlook Hong Kong 2012(Low)Tania Scott
The document provides an overview and assessment of various asset classes and geopolitical issues for the month of November 2012 by The Henley Group. It notes that the next few months bring uncertainty from leadership transitions in the US and China as well as ongoing debt issues in Europe and America. Fixed income is viewed negatively due to low yields and inflation risks. Property is given a neutral assessment with selective opportunities. Currencies are predicted to further devalue against commodities and the Yen is seen as a safe haven.
September 2012 was one of the most important months for markets since 2008, as both the ECB and Fed announced plans for open-ended, unlimited monetary stimulus. This stimulus will likely lead to higher inflation in the short term and further debase paper currencies over the long run. Precious metals and mining funds are expected to perform well due to ongoing monetary stimulus, while financial assets face increasing risk after adjusting for inflation.
Henley December Outlook Hong Kong 2012 LowTania Scott
The document provides an overview and analysis of global markets and economic conditions in December 2012. It discusses uncertainties in the US around resolving the fiscal cliff issues and debates around raising the debt ceiling. In Europe, more bailouts are being crafted for Greece but are only temporary fixes. Japan may see new stimulus policies from an incoming government. Across asset classes, the outlook is neutral to negative due to ongoing debt and economic challenges facing developed nations. High dividend stocks and select property investments are preferred over fixed income given inflation risks.
The document provides an overview and analysis of global markets and economic conditions in December 2012. It discusses uncertainties in the US around resolving the fiscal cliff issues and the unsustainable level of national debt. In Europe, more bailouts are being crafted for Greece but the experiment continues failing. Japan may see new stimulus but promised results seem like "Christmas magic". Overall the outlook expresses skepticism around resolutions to major economic issues and sees continued monetary easing fueling future inflation concerns.
The document provides an overview and analysis of global markets and economic conditions in December 2012. It discusses uncertainties in the US around resolving the fiscal cliff issues and debt ceiling debates. In Europe, more bailouts are being crafted for Greece but fail to solve underlying issues. Japan may see new stimulus but past attempts have not succeeded. Overall the outlook expresses skepticism around resolutions to major economic problems and sees continued monetary easing fueling future inflation risks.
The document discusses the uncertain global economic and political environment over the next few months. It notes that the US faces budget issues as tax cuts are set to expire and spending cuts will be implemented. China is also transitioning to new leadership. In Europe, Germany does not want to directly fund bailouts for troubled countries like Greece, Portugal, and Spain, making their conditions impossible to meet. The global monetary system is unsustainable long-term, and the IMF is exploring alternatives like those in the Chicago Plan from the 1930s.
Equity prices have risen over the summer despite a weak global economy. Europe remains at risk of recession while China is showing signs of slowing. The prospect of further monetary easing is driving stock prices higher even as economic data remains poor. Agricultural commodity prices have risen sharply due to drought conditions, making agribusiness equities more attractive investments. The US Federal Reserve is expected to take substantial easing action to support the economy should growth stall further.
The Henley Group Monthly Outlook September 2012jenks23
Equity prices have risen over the summer despite a weak global economy. Europe remains at risk of recession while China is showing signs of slowing. The document suggests equity prices have risen due to expectations of further monetary easing from central banks. It recommends agricultural equities as crops face drought conditions and reviews minutes from the US Federal Reserve that indicate consensus for more stimulus if growth falters further. Gold and silver prices jumped on the Fed minutes as investors anticipate additional quantitative easing.
Equities pushed higher over the summer months, recouping losses from May. However, the document notes the health of the world economy looks far from great, with Europe flirting with recession supported mainly by Germany. The document discusses how monetary easing is driving equity prices higher despite weak economic fundamentals. It provides an overview of various asset classes and regions with a generally neutral outlook, noting preferences for high dividend stocks and selectivity in alternative investments.
The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for August 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses ongoing concerns around the LIBOR manipulation scandal and hopes that issues with unallocated gold schemes will be similarly exposed. The outlook then covers views on currencies, fixed income, property, equities, commodities, and alternative investments. Fixed income is viewed negatively due to challenges facing central banks and struggling economies. Commercial property is given mixed views, with caution on US and UK markets but growth seen in other regions.
The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for August 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses views on currencies, fixed income, property, equities, commodities, and alternative investments. The outlook expresses negative views on the US dollar, British pound, and euro, as well as fixed income generally. It notes slowing economic data from China and concerns about high home prices in some markets like India, Brazil, and parts of China.
Henley December Outlook Singapore 2012 Optimisedjaydean71
The document provides an overview and outlook of various asset classes for December 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses uncertainties in the markets as holidays approach and whether "Christmas magic" will provide solutions. It also summarizes views on fixed income, currencies, property, equities and other asset classes with a focus on developments in the US, Europe, UK, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore. The outlook is mostly neutral to negative given continued uncertainties and concerns over fiscal and debt issues in developed economies.
Canada Life is a leading provider of life, pensions and investments in Ireland with over 100 years of experience. It receives high financial ratings and partners with top investment managers to offer a broad range of investment choices to Irish investors. The Canada Life/Setanta Dividend Fund follows a value investing strategy focused on companies that pay above average dividends. Research shows dividends provide a major contribution to long-term stock returns, with high dividend paying stocks outperforming lower dividend stocks. The fund takes a diversified, value-based approach to investing in high quality dividend paying companies.
The document discusses recent market trends and the relationship between two opposing forces - the "Bubble Chain" and the "Deleveraging Chain".
The Bubble Chain refers to rising asset prices driven by central bank liquidity, moving from government bonds to corporate credit to equities. However, a Deleveraging Chain is also occurring, shown through weakness in commodities, emerging markets, and gold. These two chains send inconsistent signals about the economy.
The document argues one chain will have to give way at some point, allowing for a realignment. It also analyzes gold's recent sharp decline, putting forward several hypotheses for what triggered it and what implications it could have. The author remains uncertain about which
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook for retailers in 2012. It discusses slower anticipated growth in Europe, the United States, China, and other BRIC countries. The three possible scenarios for the Eurozone are integration with fiscal union, failure of the Eurozone, or continued "muddling along" with slow growth and uncertainty. The outlook for China includes an economic deceleration and concerns about rising debt levels. Retailers may face challenges like weak consumer spending but also opportunities for global expansion.
The document summarizes economic concerns from a single day in May 2012. It discusses Greece potentially leaving the eurozone and going into economic collapse. It also mentions the weakening European economy, troubles in the European commercial real estate market, and issues with J.P. Morgan that were hurting market sentiment. However, the document expresses that diversification may help investors weather volatility and that the outlook is better than 2008-2009 despite some challenges still existing.
Similar to Henley Outlook July 2012 Hong Kong (20)
1. Monthly Market Outlook
July 2012
At the time of writing, the umpteenth crisis meeting of the Council of
Europe has just finished and the markets are being ramped upwards
into the half-year close. The European Union smoke-and-mirrors
merchants want us to believe that a game-changing agreement to
solve the euro crisis has been reached; but there is no agreement, any
more than there is a plan to bail out the Spanish banks. They just say
they have a plan. There is no plan; no formalised, agreed plan.
The Henley Outlook
July 2012
THE WEALTH MANAGEMENT PROFESSIONALS
2. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Overview
ASSET CLASS HOUSE VIEW REMARKS
Fixed Income Investment Grade
High Yield
Student accommodation only
Property
Equities US
Japan
UK
Europe Ex UK
Australia
ASEAN
Broad equity exposure
Greater China including the region preferred
India
Other Emerging Markets
Commodities Energy
Precious Metals
Industrial Metals
Agriculture
Selective strategies only
Alternative Investments
Key: Positive Neutral Negative
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3. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Global Overview
At the time of writing, the umpteenth crisis meeting
of the Council of Europe has just finished and the
markets are being ramped upwards into the half-
year close. The European Union smoke-and-mirrors
merchants want us to believe that a game-changing
agreement to solve the euro crisis has been reached;
but there is no agreement, any more than there is
a plan to bail out the Spanish banks. They just say
they have a plan. There is no plan; no formalised,
agreed plan.
What we have is a Memorandum of Understanding,
the weakest form of non-binding document
possible. We have EUR120bn of (mostly) previously
announced spending being amalgamated and
trumpeted as a new growth package. We have no
new bailout money. We do have some technical
changes to the European Stability Mechanism,
which are to be applauded. We also have a central supervisory authority for banks to be run by the European Central
Bank. But we will really have all this only if that wish list can be converted into a legally-binding agreement. As usual, the
devil will be in the detail, in the camels which have to be squeezed through the eyes of needles and in the time and money
which it is all going to take. Déjà vu, anyone?
In conceding even to the Memorandum, Chancellor Merkel has opened the floodgates on a torrent of hostile legal
challenges within Germany. (Perhaps, now that the chips are down, Germany is reverting to her old ways, seeking a
German Europe, rather than the European Germany we have seen her pursue since the Second World War? Probably not,
but who could blame her)? The constitutional consequence of the litigation may have to be a German referendum on the
way forward; so Italy’s victory at the summit (as on the championship soccer field!) may prove short lived – but at least
a referendum would allow Merkel to wash her hands of Europe’s fate. Is that her game?
So far, Merkel has been saying that, if Germany is expected to take on liability for other countries’ debts, Germany must
be given control over other countries’ taxing and spending. However, if you believe that control over your taxing and
spending is the essence of your sovereignty, it is no wonder that other nations are unwilling to succumb; but, although
Germany may have blinked on a debt union, she won on banking supervision. In that sense, perhaps Italy’s success was
even less than it appeared at first?
In reality, however, conceding that already insolvent banks may borrow even more money from previously forbidden
sources will not help, except perhaps for a few days. The debt crisis continues to deteriorate, and the rate of deterioration
continues to accelerate.
After months of posturing and denial, Spain and Cyprus have become the fourth and fifth countries formally to request
aid from Europe’s bailout funds. In doing so, these governments have officially confessed to their own insolvency and to
the insolvency of their respective banking systems. In response, Spain’s ten-year bond yield jumped to over 7% again,
and Moody’s downgraded many Spanish banks to junk.
Meanwhile, Slovenia’s prime minister said that his country may soon ask for a bailout. Italy cannot be far behind. Where
is that money going to come from?
In the US, the Californian city of Stockton filed for bankruptcy – the largest US municipal bankruptcy so far. JP Morgan
Chase admitted that the USD2bn credit derivatives loss announced in May has already increased to USD9bn and rising.
Some analysts opine that a USD50bn loss would bring the bank down.
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4. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
The confetti war is also intensifying.
Foreigners are reducing their holdings of US Treasuries, while countries from Ukraine to Kazakhstan to Turkey announced
that they have purchased gold in recent months to bolster their growing reserves. The Bank of International Settlements
and US regulators are both moving forward with proposals that allocated gold bullion be treated as a risk-free cash
equivalent on banks’ balance sheets, alongside US Treasury securities.
Chile has joined a growing list of countries that has agreed to bypass the US dollar and settle all of its trade with China in
yuan. China itself has just announced plans to create an experimental zone (in Qianhai, just on the other side of Shenzhen
Bay from Hong Kong) where full exchange and convertibility of the yuan will be allowed.
So, there appear to be a number of (not necessarily new) takeaways from recent developments:
• European governments are insolvent.
• European banks are insolvent.
• US governments (federal and local) are not far behind.
• Even the best US banks are not as strong as believed.
• Foreigners are abandoning the US dollar and seeking alternatives.
• Gold remains at the heart of the monetary system.
Ho hum. Better a list of five ghastly certainties (plus one golden ray of light) than a Memorandum of Understanding, I
suppose!
Peter Wynn Williams
Investment Director
pww@thehenleygroup.com.hk
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5. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Cash & Currencies
USD Index (Source: Bloomberg)
Summary
• Not a lot of activity this month across the board.
• JPY was flat but remained weaker YTD against the USD for the first reversal in trend in a long time. It did however
rebound slightly from strong support at 84.
• GBP/EUR was also range bound but since December 2008 the GBP has gradually been regaining strength against the
EUR, but not at a strong pace. Focus for the euro turned to Spain throughout April.
• AUD weakened further against the USD, but remains above parity.
• The trading band for the SGD was altered to ‘stronger’ by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) following their
biannual meeting; this was due to an increased GDP and increased inflationary pressure.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Unchanged. Negative USD, GBP and EUR over medium-to-long term against trade-weighted basket of
currencies. The euro is unlikely to continue in its current form. If the risk appetite remains strong, then we
should start to see funds flowing out of the ‘safe haven’ USD thus weakening its positions.
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6. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Fixed Income
Positives
• China reduced borrowing costs (25bps) for the first time in four years. UK also announced a plan to provide the banking
system with more than GBP100bn (USD155.43bn) to help its struggling economy. At THG, we are expecting more
central banks to flood the market with liquidity in order to cushion coming shocks from Europe.
• Inflation pressures are well contained. US cost of living fell in May by the most in more than three years. CPI declined
by 0.3% to 1.7% YOY. Similarly, inflation in the euro zone hit a 15-month low at 2.4% (May) from 2.6% (April), allowing
room for further easing measures.
Negatives
Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
• US Federal Reserve expanded the maturity of its Operation Twist program for an estimated USD267bn. To keep long-
term borrowing costs down, US Federal Reserve will continue to sell short-term securities and buy longer-term ones till
the end of 2012.
• ECB continues to increase its exposure to the peripheral countries and their banks. As shown in graphs above, Spain
and Italy have borrowed heavily from ECB in recent months. Under the provision of Emergency Liquidity Assistance
(ELA) program, ECB also lent directly to peripheral banks as their deposit base eroded. Spanish 10-year bonds hit euro
record of 7% despite the pledge of EUR100bn (USD125bn) funding by IMF. Moody’s also downgraded Spain’s credit
rating to Baa3, one step above junk, citing the bailout contributing to the Spanish government’s debt load.
• Lack of AAA sovereigns drove investors to Australian government bonds. Yields on all Australian notes maturing in two
years or longer fell to record lows in June. Even with its 10-year bond dipping below 3% for the first time, Australia still
offers higher yields than comparables of Germany and Canada.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Negative. We saw a large selloff in emerging market bonds last month: JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified
Index (Local Currency Denominated): -7.5% and JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified Index (Hard Currency):
-2.5%. Risk premium widened 75bps, ending the month at 414bps vs US Treasuries. We believe valuation of
the emerging market debt is not cheap, but strong fundamentals and stable commodity prices will remain
favourable to the asset.
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7. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Property
Positives
• Prime central London property prices rose 0.7% in May 2012, contributing to
an annual growth of 10.7%. Prices are up 47.3% since the post credit crisis
low in March 2009, and are now 12.1% higher than the price peak in March
2008. Prices in the sub-GBP2m and the GBP2m+ bracket rose 2.7% and 1.6%
respectively in the two months to the end of May following the imposition of
the new 7% GBP2m+ Stamp Duty Land Tax. Prime central London property
prices continue to be supported by growing tensions within the euro zone,
leading to the flight of capital to safer locations.
• Home prices in major Indian and Brazilian cities continue to surge following
strong economic growth over the last decade. Data reflects that Delhi home
prices surged 24.4% in 1Q12 but have been flat since. In Sao Paulo, prices
climbed by 18.7% in 1Q12, followed by 2.6% in the latest quarter. There are
concerns that both markets are overvalued. For example, in Sao Paulo and Rio
de Janeiro, prices may be 50% overvalued after rising 140% since 2008.
• In Singapore, sales of new private homes rose in April to a near a three-year
high, and transactions exceeded 2,300 units for a third consecutive month amid
resilient demand. If prices continue to rise, further government intervention to
curb price rises is expected.
Negatives
• Recent data on global home prices from a Global Property Guide survey,
reflects that home prices fell in 24 countries and have risen in only 12 during
the 1Q12. The rate of decline has since accelerated with 26 countries now in
decline and only 10 countries showing price gains.
Source: Knight Frank Residential Research
• Home prices fell in a record 46 of 70 Chinese cities in April and the People’s
Bank of China cut it’s benchmark interest rate in June for the first time since 2008. China’s property curbs continue to
work. Jones Lang LaSalle recently reported that many speculators have left the market, and of all residential property
purchases, 93% of them are for owner occupation, and only 7% are speculative.
• UK property company Rightmove reports that asking prices for British homes were unchanged in May as the European
crisis and the end of a tax break for first time buyers dampened demand. This is the first time since the survey began
in 2002 that home prices have failed to rise in May. The Council of Mortgage lenders reported that in April, UK gross
mortgage lending dropped 19% to GBP10.2bn. The UK government has just announced plans to lend GBP140bn to UK
banks to stimulate lending, part of which it is required to be used for residential property purchase.
• After rising 7.7% for the first four months of the year, sales of secondary Hong Kong homes have experienced a sharp
drop due mainly to falling share prices, and the euro zone debt crisis. There are warnings of price falls of between 5 and
10% in the mass residential market over the next year, based upon the government’s plans to improve affordability
by increasing supply.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Neutral. Property prices generally, after significant falls in 2009, stabilised in 2010 and 2011. Property values
have recovered in selected areas such as Asia and London but fundamentals remain weak elsewhere. However,
we still consider some specialised property assets, such as student accommodation/ground rent income, to
merit inclusion in our portfolios. Other than these investments, we would suggest that clients do not invest
further at this time.
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8. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Equities
US
Positives
• US economy highly flexible, resilient and leads world in technology and innovation.
• ederal Reserve has forecast rates unchanged until at least late 2014.
F
• urther monetary easing in 2H12 will boost asset prices in nominal terms.
F
Negatives
• National debt: USD15.8tn and rising; debt to GDP: 104%and rising. Absurdly unsustainable.
• Housing market in depression. Prices at 10-year lows.
• Real incomes falling, only 41.6% of working-age Americans have a full-time job.
• Political system dysfunctional, possible fiscal cliff and debt ceiling to negotiate at end of 2012.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Negative. The latest consumer earnings and credit numbers show ongoing structural deterioration in consumer
liquidity. With lack of positive, real (inflation-adjusted) growth in income, there can be no sustainable growth
in real personal consumption (71% of GDP). Temporary consumption gains could be fuelled by debt expansion,
but that option is not available to most consumers. Broad economic activity remains likely to bottom bounce
for the foreseeable future.
JAPAN
Positives
• JPY was little changed at JPY79.5 from four weeks ago. We are still expecting Japan’s currency to further weaken on
the medium term over prospects of more interventions. The expectation of easing has heightened after IMF said JPY
was overvalued and Bank of Japan should consider further stimulus.
Negatives
• Japan reported a trade deficit of JPY907.3bn (USD11.5bn) for May. Japan has its first shortfall in trade with EUR
(JPY11.1bn) since its Finance Ministry keeping track of record in 1979. Shipments to Europe fell 0.9% while those to
the US surged 38%, highlighting the European crisis as an eminent threat to Japan’s recovery.
• Fitch cut Japan’s sovereign rating to A-plus citing Japan’s spiralling debt problem.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Neutral. Japan made its first step toward reducing its record high debt burden. Prime Minister Noda overcame
significant resistance as he pushed the bill through the lower house to double Japan’s consumption tax to
10% by 2015. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has recently predicted
that Japan’s debt will reach 223% of GDP next year and urged the country to be more aggressive in tackling
its debt.
UK
Positives
• The BoE is offering money to high-street banks to kick start mortgage and small business lending to prevent loans
being rationed for many families and entrepreneurs.
• The ‘funding for lending’ scheme would provide funding to banks for an extended period of several years, at rates
below current market rates and linked to the performance of banks in sustaining or expanding their lending.
• BoE will also activate an emergency scheme that offers six-month liquidity to banks in tranches of no less than
GBP5bn a month.
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9. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Negatives
• he Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK’s trade-in-goods deficit widened from GBP8.7bn in March to GBP
T
10.1bn in Apr12, with car exports down markedly because of weaker demand from buyers outside the euro zone.
• The services index, published by Markit Economics, fell to a six-month low of 52.4 in May12 from 53.3 in Apr12.
• he study by the Institute For Fiscal Studies (IFS), an independent think-tank, showed that median income fell 3.1% in
T
2010-11, from GBP432 / wk to GBP419 / wk. Mean household income fell 5.7% from GBP542 to GBP511, said the IFS.
Using either measure, this meant that average living standards were now below the level in 2004-5.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Negative. The main problem for UK is that Europe’s banking crisis does not appear to be abating as shown by
the miserable results of most EU banks. On the fiscal side, the deficit to GDP has declined over the past three
years from 11.5% to 8.3%, but the bulk of the reduction was the result of increased taxes since GDP growth
was weak. The overriding concern is whether the country will be able to continue to cut its deficit in the face
of weaker economic conditions and a possible deterioration in the country’s financial sector. We expect that
the UK’s debt/GDP will continue to rise and the country will remain pressed.
EUROPE EX UK
Positives
• Greece’s largest pro-bailout parties, New Democracy and Pasok, won enough seats to forge a parliamentary majority,
official projections showed, easing concern the country was headed toward an imminent exit from the euro. The
election would give New Democracy and Pasok 163 seats if they agree to govern together in the 300-member
parliament.
• Spain asked euro region governments for a bailout worth as much as EUR100bn to rescue its banking system as the
country became the biggest euro economy so far to seek international aid.
• The French election results were positive for French President Hollande since his Socialist Party took an outright
majority in the National Assembly. This gives the socialists control of the presidency and both houses of parliament.
Negatives
• A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in euro-area services and manufacturing industries
dropped to 46 from 46.7 in April. While above an initial estimate of 45.9, the May reading is the lowest since June09.
The indicator has remained below 50, indicating contraction, for four months.
• European companies are cutting back on hiring and spending as the intensifying fiscal crisis makes the economic
outlook more uncertain. While the euro area narrowly avoided falling into a recession in the first quarter, unemployment
has reached the highest on record and economic confidence is at the lowest since 2009.
• The 10-year Spanish bond yield rose sharply by 25bp to 7.13%, vaulting the 7.00% level for the first time and increasing
the risk that the Spanish government will need a full bailout of EUR 350-450bn euros rather than just up to EUR 100bn
for its banks.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Strongly negative. The Greek election results mean that Greece will stay in the euro zone (for now) and will
continue to pursue severe austerity measures. Although this outcome puts an end to the near-term uncertainty
surrounding Greece’s participation in the euro, it does nothing to resolve the ongoing crisis. Spanish bond
yields are once again above 7%, implying that markets continue to require a larger European solution. One
positive development in France is that, after the Socialist Party gained a strong majority in the legislative
elections, President Francois Hollande will now have room to manoeuvre if a market riot occurs and structural
reform is demanded by the markets,. The crisis in Europe will not end until policymakers take steps that
convince markets of the viability of the euro.
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10. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
AUSTRALIA
Positives
• The Australian economy is in pretty good shape (apart from, perhaps, the wave of sackings announced recently):
unemployment has fallen, the currency is strong, GDP is on trend and holding up, there is a once-in-a-generation
investment boom going on and the government is heading back into surplus.
Negatives
• The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged. While it appears to retain a bias to ease, its hurdle to do
so looks higher than earlier thought, requiring a “material” weakening in the domestic economy.
• Household debt is 150% of disposable income, up from 50% 25 years ago, and has been stuck at that level for five
years. The key cause is the price of land in Australia; it is one of the least populated countries on earth yet land is
about the most expensive.
• The combination of rising population, a lack of arable land and artificial restrictions on residential development in
cities has led to a six-fold rise in the median house price since 1986, from $93,000 to $550,000 now. Over the same
period, average household incomes have risen 3.5 times.
• Other countries in Australia’s position build massive sovereign wealth funds. Australia has a relatively small one (the
Future Fund) with a specific purpose: to provide for unfunded public service pensions
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Negative (except the commodity sector which we like). The Australian economy is a double-edged sword, it is
expected to grow a little below trend, although the makeup of the growth will be heavily tilted towards mining
investment. Key headwinds for the non-mining sectors will be: 1) ongoing deleveraging by the household
sector; 2) caution by the corporate; 3) maintenance of a relatively high Australian dollar, and 4) fiscal
tightening by the authorities.
ASEAN
Positives:
• Indonesia will implement stimulus measures to boost consumption and infrastructure spending as a global slowdown
limits exports. The government will tap last year’s IDR24tn (USD2.5bn) budget surplus to fund building projects, and
lift the tax-free annual income level to IDR24mn from IDR15mn.
• Optimism about the region’s economic outlook draws investors to offerings in Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines.
• Thailand’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for a third straight meeting amid rising risks from the
European debt crisis and slowing growth in China.
• Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 4% yesterday after the economy expanded
6.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the most in Southeast Asia.
Negatives:
• Singapore’s May private home sales fell 32% from a month ago, posting the lowest sales this year as the European
crisis damped demand. Sales fell below 2,000 units for the first time in four months.
• Indonesia has underperformed Asia ex-Japan & Emerging Markets up to 01June.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Neutral. A cut is an option for ASEAN in the future if the situation deteriorates, and as inflation is not a major
issue now. They have the bullets to use when it is necessary. Domestic demand, consumption and investment
remain strong while exports may slow because of weakening global demand and commodity prices. Imports
will remain high because of growing domestic consumption.
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11. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
GREATER CHINA
Positives
• We witnessed the PBoC’s first rate cut of 25bps since 2008 following
last month’s decline of the banks’ reserve requirement ratio, which
suggests that the Chinese authorities are becoming more proactive
in stimulating the economy.
• It is almost a sure bet that inflationary pressure will continue to
abate – China’s CPI increased 3% YOY or decreased 0.3% MOM in
May, which the YOY figure hit 23 months’ lowest level.
• Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing (HKEx) reached an agreement to
buy all of London Metal Exchange’s (LME) shares for GBP1.39bn.
Although the deal seems “extremely expensive”, this bid for LME will
give China more power in global commodity trading.
Negatives
• China’s growth slid to 8.1% in the first three months of the year
from a year earlier, the fifth quarterly deceleration. HSBC Flash PMI
weakened to 48.1 in June, compared to 48.4 in the previous month.
• The major wildcard in China’s cyclical growth outlook is the
escalating crisis in Europe and recovery progress in the US economy.
Risk factor remains external, and China export sector is suffering in
the near term.
Source: BCA Proprietary Indicator
• Recent comments from Joseph Yam, the former chief of the HKMA,
raised the issue that the city’s decades-old currency board system, peg-to-USD, is no longer serving the best interests
of the Hong Kong economy.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Neutral. Economic expansion/industrialisation of China is a long-term story driving growth all the way. We
have witnessed some slowdown and concerns on recent Chinese economic activities, however it will not derail
the overall story. External risks from peripheral euro zone and uncertainty of US economy are still making
huge impact on China’s export sectors. But apparently, more stimulation is on the way from the Chinese
central government once they make sure inflation is under control.
INDIA
Positives
• With USD1.68bn inflow in the month of March, the FIIs pumped in a total of USD8.89bn in Q1 which is the highest
for any quarter in the last 10 years.
• Country’s central bank – the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) purchased dollars (USD1.1bn) after more than a year to arrest
volatility and prevent further appreciation of the Indian Rupee (INR).
• Donald Trump has announced his foray into USD12bn Indian real estate market that is growing annually at 30%.
Negatives
• India’s index of industrial production (IIP) grew at 4.1% in February, significantly lower than the expected 6.6%.
• Bond yields fell sharply from 8.54% to 8.46% following the release of the IIP data.
• Grant Thornton has reported a decline in corporate deals in the first quarter (USD20.4bn) owing to the amendments
proposed at the backdrop of Vodafone tax issue in the recent budget.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Neutral. Although high prices of oil and food pose challenges to managing inflation, it is widely expected
that RBI would cut down the repo rate for the first time in three years. Whether this reduction will boost the
economy remains to be seen.
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12. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
OTHER EMERGING MARKETS (SOUTH KOREA, RUSSIA, BRAZIL)
Positives
• Brazil’s major mobile phone carriers have paid
a total of R$2.6bn (USD1.3bn) for spectrum for
high-speed fourth-generation networks as Latin
America’s biggest economy prepares for major
sporting events in the next four years. Brazil’s
telecommunications market is one of the world’s
fastest growing as its growing middle class takes
to the mobile internet. The country is already one
of the biggest markets for social media thanks
to the high proportion of young people in its
population.
• As the chart right illustrates, many Asian EM
economies, in particular via China, Singapore
and Korea, are running very large current account
surpluses which will in turn increase their standing
in global financing in the coming years.
Negatives
• Russia’s economy, highly reliant on oil, is under severe pressure. Falling oil prices have sent Russian shares and the
rouble tumbling. The uncertainty is beginning to take its toll even in the rural regions where criticism of the president is
mounting. There is currently a creeping crackdown designed to stifle protests sparked by deeply flawed parliamentary
elections last year, and Mr. Putin’s stage-managed return to power in May.
• Brazil’s economy barely grew for the first quarter of this year, despite interest rate cuts and government stimulus
measures, reinforcing concerns over a broader slowdown in emerging markets. This was primarily driven by the
agricultural sector whose crops fell prey to erratic weather in several parts of the country.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Neutral. Whilst there have been developments in EM to create their own internal markets, at present they do
still remain sensitive to a slowdown in western economies through exports. In addition whilst the sector as a
whole has much higher forecasted growth rates and a younger more dynamic population, any fall out in the
current sovereign debt crisis will undoubtedly affect these markets also.
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13. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Commodities
ENERGY
Positives
• Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain uncertain
• OPEC left its output steady at 30 million barrels per day
Negatives
• Ongoing debt concerns in Europe and signs of a slowdown in China are adding to negative sentiment
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
We remain neutral. In the absence of any adverse developments between Iran and the West, the oil price will
continue to be driven by macro data. Given signs of a slowdown in China and the overall rather bleak picture
for sustained world growth as a result of the debt issues on both sides of the Atlantic, we believe that the oil
price will struggle to sustain a rally. Further monetary easing will, however, provide some support for prices.
PRECIOUS METALS
Positives:
• Gold and silver are a good hedge against financial
instability.
• Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong in April rose to
101.8 tonnes, +62% MOM, +1300% YOY, just shy of a
record
• set in Nov11, when 102.8 tonnes were imported.
Negatives
• Temporary USD strength put pressure on the gold price.
• Gold is a liquid asset that can easily be sold by investors
to cover losses elsewhere
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
We remain strongly positive on precious metals. Another one bites the dust. Spain finally succumbed and
has been offered a EUR100bn bailout; it is unclear if this will be enough. Most probably not, and the number
needed is closer to EUR400bn. Despite the bailout, yields on Spanish debt have edged higher. Italian bonds
yields are also rising, and of course, everyone knows that the money to eventually bail out Italy does not exist.
For gold and silver, the continued stress in Europe is widely bullish and these assets remain at the very core
of our asset allocation.
The Henley Group Limited The Henley Outlook: 13
An SFC Licensed investment advisor in Hong Kong Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Suite 2004-08, 20/F, St George’s Building, 2 Ice House Street, Central, Hong Kong
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14. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
INDUSTRIAL METALS
Positives
• Currency debasement will support real asset prices.
Negatives
• The health of the global economy remains uncertain.
• Net speculative length in COMEX Copper High Grade is at a 12 month low.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
We maintain our neutral view on base metals. Market participants remain worried about just how serious the
global economy challenges really are. In the commodity sector we continue to favour other areas.
AGRICULTURE
Positives
• UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates there will be over 9bn mouths to feed on the planet by 2050.
• Middle class consumers in BRIC economies are increasingly demanding more varied and protein rich foods. As
affluence increases, protein from beef, sheep, poultry, pigs, cows and fish may in turn displace grains in diets.
• Urbanisation and life expectancy is expected to increase
Source: The Fertilizer Institute
Negatives
• Prices are subject to many uncontrollable risks, eg, weather and natural disasters, politics and other pests.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Positive: A rapidly-growing global population and the rapidly-developing emerging world underpin the long-
term prospects of the agricultural sector globally, at the same time the supply of arable land is limited.
It is estimated by the World Bank that worldwide 445mn hectares of land are currently uncultivated and
available for farming, compared with about 1.5bn hectares already under cultivation. On the other hand, soft
commodity prices are subject to many factors that are difficult to forecast such as drought or flooding. We
suggest investors take a diversified approach when investing into this sector.
The Henley Group Limited The Henley Outlook: 14
An SFC Licensed investment advisor in Hong Kong Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Suite 2004-08, 20/F, St George’s Building, 2 Ice House Street, Central, Hong Kong
info@thehenleygroup.com.hk www.thehenleygroup.com.hk
15. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
Alternative Investment
Positives
• Hedge funds were down
1.55% in May, although
they beat most market
indices by a large margin
amid heightened risk
aversion and falling global
markets.
• CTA/Managed futures
funds gained 2.55%
on average in a largely
negative month according
to a Eurekahedge report.
Strong returns are
provided by their material
exposures to the extended
moves in fixed income
and FX markets. Overall,
managers with long-term
bearish positioning did
well and made up for some
of the losses incurred
earlier in the year.
Negatives Source: HFMWeek
• Recent data is showing
investors lost their patient and interest in hedge fund space. According to both BarclayHedge and TrimTabs reports,
there was a USD5.1bn outflow in April 2012 and over USD12bn for the 12 months from May 2011. However, some
healthy strategies for the likes of macro and fixed income are still attracting the capital inflows.
HENLEY ASSESSMENT:
Positive: Our bet in commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and Global Macro has payoff in May. This is exactly
what we called “hedges” to our model portfolios during those “down markets”. We continue to think that
the outlook for global growth is still in trouble therefore we believe hedge fund managers, especially those
managing CTA and Macro funds, are better equipped to deal with tough market conditions this time around.
Also, we are cautiously selecting managers those who could quickly exercise capital protection measures and
have tight control of their risks.
General disclaimer and warning
The Henley Group Limited (“The Henley Group”) has produced this document for your private use only and you must not distribute it to any other person
in Hong Kong. Re-distribution or reproduction in whole or in part of this document by any means is strictly prohibited and The Henley Group accepts
no liability for the actions of third parties in this respect.Funds not authorized by the Securities and Futures Commission may involve more risk and
distrib ution or re-distrib ution of information relating to such funds to the pub lic of Hong Kong may constitute an offence under the Securities and Futures
Ordinance.Notwithstanding that the information contained herein has been obtained from sources which The Henley Group believes to be reliable, The
Henley Group makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness.
The information in this document, including any expressions of opinions or estimates, should neither be relied upon nor used in any way as indication
of the future performance of any financial products, as prices of assets and currencies may go down as well as up and past performance should not be
taken as indication of future performance.
The Henley Group Limited The Henley Outlook: 15
An SFC Licensed investment advisor in Hong Kong Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Suite 2004-08, 20/F, St George’s Building, 2 Ice House Street, Central, Hong Kong
info@thehenleygroup.com.hk www.thehenleygroup.com.hk
16. The Henley Outlook
July 2012
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The Henley Group Limited The Henley Outlook: 16
An SFC Licensed investment advisor in Hong Kong Hong Kong, Singapore & Shanghai
Suite 2004-08, 20/F, St George’s Building, 2 Ice House Street, Central, Hong Kong
info@thehenleygroup.com.hk www.thehenleygroup.com.hk