investing small case

1. Minimalist Art of Investing
- Sandeep Tyagi

2. Sandeep has 30+ years of experience in portfolio management,
analytics, and consulting. He is the Founder & CEO of Estee, a
quantitative investment and broking firm.
Founded one of the earliest analytics outsourcing company,
Inductis, ran it for 8 years before merging with EXL Services.
He pursued Bachelors in Technology from IIT Delhi and MBA
from Columbia Business School.
Sandeep’s passion is to help people invest well.
Mr. Sandeep Tyagi
Founder & CEO of Estee
About Speaker

3. Estee is a pioneer of systematic investing in India. Estee is
known for making investment decisions using quantitative
methods. Over the past 14 years, Estee has developed
leading investment and broking products using analytics and
computer science.
 Founded in 2008
 Operates in 8 Countries
 NSE Institutional Member of the Year award, 2019
About Estee
www.esteeadvisors.com

4. Gulaq is a retail investment advisory arm of Estee. Estee uses
sophisticated quantitative algorithms to build Gulaq model
portfolios for retail investors. Gulaq portfolios are available on
smallcase and Wealthdesk platforms.
 Launched in 2020
 SEBI Registered investment advisor
 CAGR 52%
 Outperformed markets consistently
About Gulaq
www.gulaq.com

5. Investing is simple,
but not easy.
“
- Warren Buffett

6. The webinar series is aimed at helping investors build an efficient investment plan
and avoid common investing mistakes. The series is organized in 4 parts:
 Building investment plan
 Avoiding Noise
 Staying the course
 Factor investing
Minimalist Art of Investing

7. Setting Expectations
“I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very
interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change
in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the
two -- because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.

8. In the short run, the market is a
voting machine, but in the long run it
is a weighing machine.
- Benjamin Graham
“

9. What you also want to know is
• How bad the market can be ?
• How good the markets can be ?
Rolling Returns
12%
20%
25%
17.20%
Jan'16 - Dec'16 Feb'16 - Jan'17 Mar'16 - Feb'17 Apr'16 - Mar'17
1-year Rolling Returns

10. Chances of losing money after investing for 1-Year in Sensex?
a) 10%
b) 20%
c) 30%
d) 40%
Rolling Returns

11. Chances of losing money after investing for 10-Year in Sensex?
a) 1%
b) 5%
c) 10%
d) 20%
Rolling Returns

12. Rolling Returns

13. 1 year 5 year 10 year
Minimum -53.0% -7% -2.1%
Maximum 266.9% 46.4% 20.7%
Average 17.2% 11.3% 11.4%
Rolling Returns

14. If your target goal is 10 lacs in 10 years. You use 11% average for 10 years and find that by investing 3.4
lacs right now you would be able to achieve 10 lacs target.
However, when we see the range of returns – our total investment would be
Max = 22 lacs
Min = 2.8 lacs
Probability of fund value above 10 lacs is only 40%.
Rest 60% of the cases your fund value would be below 10 lacs.
Using Average Returns

15. FD Returns
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
1975-76 1984-85 1993-94 2002-03 2011-12 2020-21
FD Returns (in %)
Returns
Max 12%
Min 4.6%
Average 8.2%

16. Years Invested
10 20 30 40
Growth
Rate
8% 2.2 4.7 10.1 21.7
12% 3.1 9.6 30.0 93.1
16% 4.4 19.5 85.8 378.7
20% 6.2 38.3 237.4 1,469.8
the conservative investing earned 8%
return and aggressive investing earned
about 16%.
Compounding

17. Debt Allocation 40%
Equity Allocation 60%
Number of 10-year rolling returns data points 254
Negative Return Years 0
Average Return 10.76%
Best Year Return 16.04%
Worst Year Return 3.95%
60-40 Benchmark, 10-year Rolling Returns
*Data considered from 1990 - 2021

18. 2. Is it Easier for Investors to Forecast the Long-Term or Short-Term? | Behavioural Investment
Curated Reading List
1. Setting Returns Expectations | Gulaq

19. Estimating savings need
and potential
Coming Episode

20. F O L L O W U S O N
Thank You
Sandeep Tyagi
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/styagi/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/styagi
GULAQ
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gulaqnew
Twitter: https://twitter.com/gulaqfintech
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/gulaqfintech/