Miquel Pellicer- GIGA, Hamburg Ragui Assaad- University of Minnesota Caroline Krafft- St. Catherine University ERF Workshop on The Political Economy of Contemporary Arab Societies Beirut, Lebanon 24-25, 2016 www.erf.org.eg

1. Grievances or skills? The role of education for youth
political mobilization in Egypt and Tunisia
Miquel Pellicer
GIGA, Hamburg
Ragui Assaad
University of Minnesota
Caroline Krafft
St. Catherine University
Grievances or skills? The role of education for youth political mobilization in Egypt and Tunisia 1 / 12

2. Introduction
Importance of education for youth political mobilization in the MENA
Grievances from unfulfilled aspirations
Anecdotal and basic correlational evidence
Two important unresolved issues
Causal effect of education?
Channel: Grievances and/or skills?
Skills useful for political participation (Campante and Chor 2012)
Important beyond strict academic interest
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3. What we do
Examine effect of education on measures of grievances, political
knowledge and political participation
Using youth surveys from Tunisia and Egypt
Controlling for family background
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4. Data and Empirical Approach
Survey of Young People in Egypt
Panel, 2009 and 2014 (10-29 in 2009)
WB Tunisia Urban and Rural Youth Surveys
2012, around 5,000 youth, 15-29 year-olds
Empirical approach
Simple OLS controlling for basic characteristics (age, sex, governorate,
etc.)
Control for parental education + Siblings fixed effects
Issue endogenous selection
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5. Basic Results
Table 1 : Basic Results
Participation Grievances Knowledge
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Tunisia 2012
edu1sec 0.037 0.021 0.077 -0.071 0.085 0.095
(0.028) (0.027) (0.024)*** (0.025)*** (0.017)*** (0.038)**
edu1uni 0.155 0.119 0.14 -0.05 0.227 0.165
(0.029)*** (0.029)*** (0.025)*** (0.027)* (0.021)*** (0.039)***
Egypt 2014
edu1sec 0.177 0.005 0.019 0.019 0.015 0.084 0.031
(0.019)*** (0.004) (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.016)*** (0.008)***
edu1uni 0.332 0.037 0.049 0.033 0.03 0.265 0.136
(0.021)*** (0.007)*** (0.014)*** (0.014)** (0.014)** (0.02)*** (0.012)***
Egypt 2009
edu1sec 0.073 0.035 0.124
(0.013)*** (0.015)** (0.012)***
edu1uni 0.164 0.059 0.31
(0.019)*** (0.019)*** (0.018)***
outcome vote part rev satis life happiness satis ctry know subj know obj
range age 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29
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6. Grievances - Egypt
Table 2 : Grievances, with family background controls
Egypt 2014
1 2 3 4
satis life
edu1sec 0.019 0.018 -0.02 -0.024
(0.012) (0.012) (0.033) (0.027)
edu1uni 0.049 0.051 0.025 0
(0.014)*** (0.016)*** (0.036) (0.034)
happiness
edu1sec 0.019 0.021 0.032 0.043
(0.012) (0.012)* (0.03) (0.028)
edu1uni 0.033 0.034 0.002 0.033
(0.014)** (0.015)** (0.033) (0.038)
satis country
edu1sec 0.015 0.016 -0.007 -0.004
(0.012) (0.012) (0.033) (0.031)
edu1uni 0.03 0.031 -0.013 -0.034
(0.014)** (0.015)** (0.034) (0.038)
N 4819 4813 690 690
range age 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29
sample parent edu no yes no no
parent edu no yes no no
sample siblings FE no no yes yes
siblings FE no no no yes
Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Signif. codes: 0.01 ‘***’ 0.05 ‘**’ 0.1 ‘*’.
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7. Grievances - Tunisia
Table 3 : Grievances, with family background controls
Tunisia 2012
1 2 3 4 5
satis life
edu1sec 0.021 0.021 0.028 -0.046 -0.119
(0.027) (0.044) (0.044) (0.079) (0.094)
edu1uni 0.119 0.18 0.176 0.016 -0.083
(0.029)*** (0.045)*** (0.046)*** (0.082) (0.099)
happiness
edu1sec 0.077 0.113 0.108 -0.067 -0.051
(0.024)*** (0.042)*** (0.043)** (0.055) (0.063)
edu1uni 0.14 0.195 0.178 -0.018 -0.024
(0.025)*** (0.043)*** (0.044)*** (0.06) (0.069)
satis country
edu1sec -0.071 -0.112 -0.107 0.017 0.043
(0.025)*** (0.041)*** (0.041)*** (0.08) (0.094)
edu1uni -0.05 -0.085 -0.087 -0.049 0.026
(0.027)* (0.043)** (0.043)** (0.084) (0.106)
N 2685 1281 1281 387 387
range age 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29
sample parent edu no yes yes no no
parent edu no no yes no no
sample siblings FE no no no yes yes
siblings FE no no no no yes
Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Signif. codes: 0.01 ‘***’ 0.05 ‘**’ 0.1 ‘*’.
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8. Political Knowledge - Egypt
Table 4 : Knowledge, with family background controls
Egypt 2014
1 2 3 4
knowledge subj
edu1sec 0.084 0.079 0.089 0.088
(0.016)*** (0.016)*** (0.044)** (0.038)**
edu1uni 0.265 0.252 0.207 0.184
(0.02)*** (0.023)*** (0.05)*** (0.051)***
knowledge obj
edu1sec 0.031 0.03 0.054 0.057
(0.008)*** (0.009)*** (0.023)** (0.03)*
edu1uni 0.136 0.124 0.128 0.111
(0.012)*** (0.014)*** (0.029)*** (0.037)***
N 4813 4807 690 690
range age 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29
sample parent edu no yes no no
parent edu no yes no no
sample siblings FE no no yes yes
siblings FE no no no yes
Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Signif. codes: 0.01 ‘***’ 0.05 ‘**’ 0.1 ‘*’.
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9. Political Knowledge - Tunisia
Table 5 : Knowledge, with family background controls
Tunisia 2012
1 2 3 4 5
knowledge subj
edu1sec 0.085 0.14 0.135 0.045 -0.031
(0.017)*** (0.027)*** (0.027)*** (0.065) (0.074)
edu1uni 0.227 0.274 0.256 0.064 -0.064
(0.021)*** (0.031)*** (0.032)*** (0.07) (0.086)
knowledge obj
edu1sec 0.095 0.021 0.012 0.023 -0.026
(0.038)** (0.072) (0.074) (0.077) (0.081)
edu1uni 0.165 0.071 0.046 0.128 0.101
(0.039)*** (0.072) (0.076) (0.08) (0.093)
N 1716 674 674 381 381
range age 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29
sample parent edu no yes yes no no
parent edu no no yes no no
sample siblings FE no no no yes yes
siblings FE no no no no yes
Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Signif. codes: 0.01 ‘***’ 0.05 ‘**’ 0.1 ‘*’.
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10. Political Participation - Egypt
Table 6 : Participation, with family background controls
Egypt 2014
1 2 3 4
vote
edu1sec 0.177 0.168 0.168 0.153
(0.019)*** (0.019)*** (0.05)*** (0.046)***
edu1uni 0.332 0.313 0.344 0.349
(0.021)*** (0.023)*** (0.052)*** (0.056)***
part rev
edu1sec 0.005 0.005 -0.005 -0.007
(0.004) (0.005) (0.013) (0.015)
edu1uni 0.037 0.03 0.031 0.028
(0.007)*** (0.008)*** (0.018)* (0.02)
N 4819 4813 690 690
range age 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29
sample parent edu no yes no no
parent edu no yes no no
sample siblings FE no no yes yes
siblings FE no no no yes
Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Signif. codes: 0.01 ‘***’ 0.05 ‘**’ 0.1 ‘*’.
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11. Political Participation - Tunisia
Table 7 : Participation, with family background controls
Tunisia 2012
1 2 3 4 5
vote
edu1sec 0.037 0.045 0.031 0.056 -0.032
(0.028) (0.046) (0.046) (0.076) (0.091)
edu1uni 0.155 0.135 0.11 0.118 0.003
(0.029)*** (0.047)*** (0.048)** (0.08) (0.105)
N 2684 1280 1280 388 388
range age 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29 21-29
sample parent edu no yes yes no no
parent edu no no yes no no
sample siblings FE no no no yes yes
siblings FE no no no no yes
Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Signif. codes: 0.01 ‘***’ 0.05 ‘**’ 0.1 ‘*’.
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12. Concluding remarks
Evidence in support of the “skill” hypothesis
Controlling for family background
Especially robust for Egypt
...but no evidence of “grievance” hypothesis
Result robust to further checks
Those that lost the most (vocational secondary)
Males over 25
→ Pay attention to grievances of youth with little education
Caveats
Our results do not imply that falling education returns is not a problem
Also, could be that grievances have increased
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