Global sell off MTS 16 Sept 2015

Vicky Amarnani
Profil Pembicara
1. Market Strategist Monex
Investindo Futures sejak 2009
2. Nara sumber di Media
(MetroTv, MNC, Beritasatu,
Bloomberg Indonesia)
3. Professional Trader sejak 2003

DISKUSI
30 menit
1. Kekhawatiran
pasar
2. Peluang di Pasar
Global
3. Strategi Trading
dan Tips

Tips
Investing/ Trading
 Ketahui penggerak harga produk
 Putuskan strategi yang
digunakan
 Jangan gunakan seluruh modal
anda di satu tempat
 Jangan berharap selalu
benar/menang
 Kelola Resiko
5

3 faktor yang menjadi fokus
1. Perlambatan China & Devaluasi Yuan akan memicu
krisis?
2. Kenaikan sukubunga AS akan menaikkan bunga
pinjaman dan menekan pasar finansial dan
emerging?
3. Akankah harga komoditi terus tertekan?

RESULT
• RISK OFF MODE (USD NAIK & SAHAM
TURUN).
• VOLATILITAS MENINGGI

“Over the past 50 years there has been a global
recession once every eight years, on average, so
the next one may be brewing. When exactly it
will come is hard to call”

Dampak perlambatan CHINA
terhadap mitra dagang

Sukubunga AS ‘0” + pengangguran
rendah  USD KUAT

OUTLOOK PERTUMBUHAN GLOBAL
2013 2014 2015 2016

Dollar AS menguat dan supply minyak berlimpah
MOMENTUM

Oil rig reduction but production still to follow..
Global inventories at multi-year highs…

2. Kesempatan Trading
 Volatile Markets
 Attractive Risk to Reward
 Day trading / Short Term Trading requires less capital
 Trade on Momentum and Strong signals

50.00 $/Barel
50.01 $/Barel
0.01 $/Barel
1 Pip CO-LS = 0.01 $/Barel x 1000 Barel = $10
1 Lot CO-LS = $2000
Initial Margin/Jaminan yang dibutuhkan dalam bertransaksi
Crude Oil sebesar :
NILAI
PIP & MARGIN

Buy 1 lot @
45.00
Target 48.00
Stop 43.00
Simple Formula:
(Jual – Beli) x kontrak x lot
= (48.00 – 45.00) x 1000 x 1
= (3.00) x 1000
= $ 3000
Demand

Buy 1 lot @
1.12000
Target 1.12500
Stop 1.10000
Simple Formula:
(Jual – Beli) x kontrak x lot
= (1.12500 – 1.12000) x 10000 x 1
= (0.00500) x 100,000
= $ 500
Demand

3. Manajemen Risiko &
Strategi Trading
Pada pasar volatil

“ It does not matter whether you are right or
wrong, but how much you make when you are
right and how much you lose when you are wrong”
Kelola Resiko
George Soros

WIN LOSS RATIO 40:60
Anda memiliki 10 transaksi dengan aturan
sebagai berikut:
Lot = 1/ transaksi
SL = 20 poin
TP = 40 poin
Equity = $10,000

TRANSAKSI AKAN MENGHASILKAN...
6 Transaksi Loss x 20 poin (pips) x $10/poin = - $1,200
4 Transaksi Profit x 40 poin x $10/poin = + $1,600
Net Profit/ Loss = + $400
Total Equity = + $10,400

Rekening Terpisah dalam bentuk Rupiah (IDR Account)
Bank : BCA Sudirman Center
Atas nama : PT Monex Investindo Futures
Nomor rekening : 035.3115.569
Bank : CIMB Niaga
Nomor rekening : 008.01.63364.000
Bank : SINARMAS cabang Fachruddin
Nomor rekening : 000.2838.001
Bank : WINDU cabang Rawamangun
Nomor rekening : 100.136.919.5
REKENING TERPISAH
Modal Aman!

• Risk
• Reward
• SL & TP
45
48
43
RENCANA TRADING

STRATEGI TRADING
(DENGAN VOLATALITAS TINGGI)
1. Breakout trading Strategy
2. Wash and Rinse Strategy

BREAKOUT STRATEGY FOR VOLATILE MARKETS

BREAKOUT STRATEGY FOR VOLATILE MARKETS
OIL 1HR CHART

1 Buy on Double Top Breakout (15 / 30 / 1hr)

Sell on Double Bottom
Breakout (15 / 30 / 1hr)

Wash and Rinse Strategy: SELL
W &
R
JPY 15 Menit
SELL
STOP LOSS
PROFIT
TARGET
X2

BUY
Wash & Rinse Strategy:
W & R
Gold 15 Menit
BUY
STOP LOSS
PROFIT TARGET X 2

TIPS FOR TRADING VOLATILE MARKETS
1. Reduce Leverage (e.g. USD 10,000 Equity no
more than 1 lot position)
2. Selective Trades (attractive risk to reward)
3. Increase Discipline when Trading

“You may never know what results
come of your action, but if you do
nothing there will be no result”
Mahatma Gandhi

Global sell off MTS 16 Sept 2015

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