The document discusses concepts related to foresight, complexity, chaos theory and emergence. It provides an outline on these topics and examples to illustrate simple to complex systems. Key points discussed include the characteristics of simplicity, chaos, emergence and criticality. The document suggests strategy for foresight includes understanding and exploring systems to identify opportunities and threats. Looking ahead, it suggests foresight will need to account for increasing complexity from more interconnected systems and people.
2. Paul Schumann
UNPREDICTABILITY
“Most of all, we need to preserve the
absolute unpredictably and total improbability
of our connected minds. That way we can
keep open all the options, as we have in the
past.”
Lewis Thomas, 1973
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3. Paul Schumann
OUTLINE
Introduction
Foresight
1, 2, A Few, Many
Chaos, Gaia, Eros
Simplicity, Complexity, Emergence & Fractals
Examples of Emergence & Complexity
Massively Parallel vs. Mathematical Modeling
Characteristics: Simple and Complex
Strategy
Foresight redux
Resources
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9. Paul Schumann
COMPLEXITY, EMERGENCE & FRACTALS
The behavior of a
complex system in Complexity
equilibrium is chaotic, in
non-equilibrium is critical
Emergence is the way Equilibrium
Non-
complex systems and equilibrium
patterns arise out of a
multiplicity of relatively
Chaos Criticality
simple interactions
A fractal is an object or
quantity that displays Agents
self-similarity on all
scales.
Adaptive Emergence Fractals
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22. Paul Schumann
FRACTALS
To create a Koch snowflake, one
begins with an equilateral triangle
and then replaces the middle third of
every line segment with a pair of line
segments that form an equilateral
quot;bump.quot; One then performs the same
replacement on every line segment of
the resulting shape, ad infinitum. With
every iteration, the perimeter of this
shape increases by one third of the
previous length. The Koch snowflake
is the result of an infinite number of
these iterations, and has an infinite
length, while its area remains finite.
For this reason, the Koch snowflake
and similar constructions were
sometimes called quot;monster curves.“
Wikipedia
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26. Paul Schumann
FRACTAL ZOOM (MANDELBROT SET)
Compliments of goooz (http://www.youtube.com/user/gooozz) 26
27. Paul Schumann
MATHEMATICAL MASSIVELY PARALLEL
Derived Simulation
Analytical Describe underlying
Conditional mechanisms
Equation: x = ½ a t2 Rule based agents in an
Predictive environment
Exploration
Easier to add random or
probabilistic events
Flexible & intuitive
MODELING
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30. Paul Schumann
IT’S NOT EITHER – OR, IT’S BOTH - AND
Complexity
Chaos
Simplicity
Criticality
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31. Paul Schumann
CHARACTERISTICS & APPLICATIONS
Simplicity Chaos Emergence Criticality
Characteristic Reductionistic Dynamical Agents Complex
s Deterministic system Interactive system
Predictive Deterministic Rules Non-
Closed Initial Massively equilibrium
system conditions parallel Unpredictable
sensitive Probabilistic
Attractors
Holistic
Applications Utility function Scenarios Insight History
Trends Exploration Probability
Driving forces Shaping
unchanged
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32. Paul Schumann
STRATEGY
Understand the system
Explore the system
Use “what if”
Identify opportunities and threats
Utilize early warning system (if possible)
Look for asymmetries
Understand risk, probabilities and outcomes
Expand the system
Start again
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34. Paul Schumann
THE FUTURE OF FORESIGHT
More systems
More interconnectedness in the systems
The reach of a system is growing
The number of people in a system is
increasing
Therefore: More complexity
More chaos
More criticality
More emergence
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35. Paul Schumann
THE PRESENT
“It makes me happy. To be at the beginning
again, knowing almost nothing… The ordinary-
sized stuff which is our lives, the things people
write poetry about – clouds – daffodils –
waterfalls,,,these things are full of mystery, as
mysterious to us as the heavens were to the
Greeks…It’s the best possible time to be
alive, when almost everything you thought you
knew is wrong.”
Tom Stoppard, Arcadia
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36. Paul Schumann
PAUL SCHUMANN
Glocal Vantage Inc, PO Box 161475, Austin, TX
78716
512.632.6586
paul.schumann@glocalvantage.com
http://www.glocalvantage.com
http://incollaboration.ning.com
http://www.twitter.com/innovant2003
Twibe: http://www.twitter.com/groups/future
#future
Want to go further? Contact me…
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37. Paul Schumann
RESOURCES
Complexity: A Guided Tour, Melanie Mitchell, Oxford, 2009
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Random
House, 2007
Adventures in Modeling: Exploring Complex, Dynamic Systems with StarLogo, Vanessa
Stevens Colella, Eric Klopfer & Mitchel Resnick, Teachers College press, 2001
Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, and Software, Steven
Johnson, Scribner,2001
Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen, Mark Buchanan, Three Rivers Press, 2000
Turtles, Termites and Traffic Jams: Explorations in Massively Parallel Microworlds, Mitchel
Resnick, MIT, 1997
The Tao of Chaos, Katya Walter, Element Books, 1996
Chaos Gaia Eros, Ralph Abraham, Harper, 1994
Tao of Chaos: Merging East and West, Katya Walter, Kairos Center, 1994
Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, M. Mitchell
Waldrop, Touchstone, 1992
Exploring Complexity: An Introduction, Gregoire Nicolis & Ilya Prigogine, Freeman, 1989
Chaos: Making a New A Science, James Gleick, Penguin, 1987
Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, Douglas Hofstadter, Vintage, 1980
Go to Insights*Intelligence *Innovation Collaborative (http://incollaboration.ning.com) and
search for complexity. All the resources listed above have blog entries and or links.
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38. This work is licensed under the Creative
Commons Attribution license. You may
distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this
work, even commercially, as long as you credit
me for the original creation as Paul
Schumann, Glocal Vantage
Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.