Hubway bike share predictor

1. FIND MY RIDE
IMPROVING YOUR BIKE SHARE EXPERIENCE
Diane Ivy

2. FIND MY RIDE
▸ Bike shares are awesome
▸ Flexible and convenient
▸ But only if a bike is available
when you need it

3. FIND MY RIDE
▸ Bike shares are awesome
▸ Flexible and convenient
▸ But only if a bike is available
when you need it

4. FIND MY RIDE
▸ Can get current status
from Hubway website or
3rd party apps.
▸ Often bikes will be gone
by the time you get to
the station.
▸ Can we help people find
a bike when they need
it?

5. FIND MY RIDE
12am 8am 5pm
0
10
NumberofBikes
Weekday
Weekend
Residential Station
12am 8am 5pm
0
10
NumberofBikes
Weekday
Weekend
Business Station
Bike Data
- 96 bike share stations
- 2 years of station data
- number of bikes available every minute
at each station
Weather Data
- hourly historical weather data from
NOAA

6. FIND MY RIDE
INPUT
start location
and time
Googlemaps api - calculate walk
time to nearby station
Forecastio - get weather forecast
MODEL
use trained
model at each
station to
predict # bikes
FEATURES
month
day of week
time of day
(minute)
precipitation
temperature
holidays
OUTPUT
0, 1-2, 2+ bike
availability

7. FIND MY RIDE
▸ Randomly selected
whole days to train,
test, and validate on
▸ Trained model on 60%
of the data
▸ Chose hyper
parameters testing on
20% of data
▸ Scored model on last
20% of the data on
recall score of 0 bikes
0 Bikes 1-2 Bikes 2+ Bikes
Actual
0 Bikes
1-2 Bikes
2+ Bikes
Predicted 0.83 0.05 0.12
0.11 0.30 0.59
0.05 0.11 0.84
0.0
0.5
1.0