1. How the 2007 floods in Gloucester affected businesses: the
changing perceptions of flooding, and precautionary
measures undertaken.
Charlotte Osborn
S1301149
Presented as part of the requirement for an award within the University Of
Gloucestershire.
April 2016
3. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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Declaration
This dissertation is the product of my own work and does not infringe the
ethical principles set out in the University’s Handbook for Research Ethics. I
agree that it may be made available for reference via any and all media by
any and all means now known or developed in the future at the discretion of
the university.
____________________________________________________________
Charlotte Osborn
April 2016
4. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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Acknowledgments
I would first like to thank my dissertation supervisor Dr Rachel Bennet for her
help and guidance throughout this period in the process of research and
writing. Secondly I would like to thank Dr Kenny Lynch for his help as my
initial dissertation supervisor and helping me get started with my initial basis
and recommendation of what I wanted the study to be about. I would also
like to thank Caro McIntosh for her help in the construction of the GIS map of
the affected areas of flooding in the summer 2007 flood event.
I would secondly like to thank my family and friends in their support
throughout the dissertation period and the advice that they have given to me.
Finally, I would like to thank the businesses of Tewkesbury and Gloucester
for taking the time to talk to me and respond to my questionnaire, as without
their participation I would have not been able to complete my research.
5. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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Abstract
This paper is exploring how the 2007 flood event in Gloucestershire affected
businesses. It will explore how their perceptions were during and after the
floods, the precautionary measures they took and will undertake in
preparation of future floods. To answer the main research question, a
method of questionnaires will be used to ask businesses in Tewkesbury and
Gloucester open-ended and closed-ended questions. The questionnaire is
divided into 2 parts, Part A which is for businesses that were affected in the
2007 floods, and Part B which is for businesses views on flooding in
Gloucestershire.
This study analyses what the perceptions of the floods were like from
businesses that were flooded in the event, exploring how well the
management of the floods were in the businesses, and to evaluate if the
choice of actions that the businesses took during and after the floods did and
could help for a future flood event similar to the flood in 2007.
The results revealed that there was enough management and advice
available during the flood event, though businesses would like more updates
and reports before the flood event in the form of leaflets, a possibility of a
flood awareness/ preparation course would be benefitted for businesses. The
area that businesses are located seems to not be concerning even with the
businesses proximity to the rivers, however this could be due to flood
memory as the event was nine years ago, so it is likely that many businesses
have forgotten how bad the floods were in the locations that they are in.
consequently procedures after the flood did not seem to change significantly
to those that were already in place before the floods, however this could be
cause for concern as like the 2007 flood event, it was unforeseen and caught
many off guard as a result many businesses could consequently be
unprepared if another flood event happens.
6. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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Table of content
1.0: Introduction.........................................................................................................1
2.0 Environmental setting ........................................................................................5
3.0: Review of literature..........................................................................................10
3.1 Flooding in a global and national context .................................................10
3.2 Flood risk and development........................................................................11
3.3 Preparedness and management................................................................12
4.0: Methodology.....................................................................................................16
4.1 Initial stage.....................................................................................................16
4.2 Design ............................................................................................................17
4.3 Preliminary research and modification......................................................18
5.0: Results ..............................................................................................................20
5.1 Vulnerability...................................................................................................20
5.2 Perceptions....................................................................................................22
5.3 Choice of action ............................................................................................25
6.0: Discussion ........................................................................................................28
6.1 Experience and vulnerability.......................................................................28
6.2 Perceptions....................................................................................................29
6.3 Choice of actions ..........................................................................................30
7.0: Conclusion........................................................................................................32
8.0: References .......................................................................................................34
Appendices...............................................................................................................39
Appendix one: Questionnaire asked to businesses for data collection. .....39
Appendix two: Risk Assessment.......................................................................43
Appendix three: Ethics ......................................................................................44
Evaluation.................................................................................................................45
10. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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1.0: Introduction
One of the most common and damaging (De Maever et al., 2013) types of
natural disasters on earth is flooding. One third of all natural disasters have
been flood related in the last 100 years, leading to one of the highest number
of worldwide fatalities through drowning, fatal injury or illness (Blaikie et al,
1994). Floods can be caused by a number of natural- climate change, land
topography, water bed- or human induced factors -deforestation, land
pasture, urbanisation, and erosion (Glosińska, 2014). With these factors in
hand, projections for natural disasters will increase in many regions across
the world and will enhance the vulnerability due to increased frequency and
intensity of floods (Abedin and Shaw, 2015). Hydrological risks are more
likely when human society interacts with the lithosphere and the biosphere
creating a change (Hewitt, 1997).
With an increasing number of people being located in areas prone to
flooding, the vulnerability is increasing- due to a growing population and a
decrease of locations for settlements which aren’t on flood plains (table 2)
(Blaikie et al, 1994). History is made up of hazards happening all over the
world (Chilvers et al., 2011) with each year claiming over 20,000 lives and
affecting 20 million people worldwide (De Maever et al., 2013). In previous
years there have been many flood events that have caused harm (Hewitt,
1997), these include flooding in 1887 in Huanghe, China which had over
900,000 fatalities, the Netherlands in 1953 which had 2,000 fatalities and
300,000 displaced which ended with US$300mil worth of damage, the USA
in 1993, had 48 fatalities, 50,000 homes damaged or destroyed and over
US$12 billion worth of damage.
The south and East of England was situated in one of the worse effected
areas in the heavy rainfall that occurred in the summer of 2007. There was
unforeseen flooding of properties and infrastructure in areas which caused
social distress, economic loss and disruption to households and businesses
(Environmental agency, 2010) and was the wettest summer since records
began (GFRS, 2014). In Wales there was a minimum of 150mm of rainfall,
and in parts of Western England the rainfall reached up to 200mm (Met
11. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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Office, 2012). These record amounts of rainfall combined fluvial, pluvial and
groundwater flooding (Hannaford and Marsh, 2007) to cause this colossal
flood event. The combination of increased rainfall around urban areas meant
that surface runoff increased causing the groundwater to fill up more rapidly
to saturation and flooding the affected areas. Widespread flooding happened
across the UK, in particular in South and East Yorkshire, Worcestershire,
Gloucestershire, and Oxfordshire (Environment Agency, 2010). The flooding
was unforeseen and caught many off guard; this had huge social, economic
and environmental costs causing a total of 13 fatalities, over 55,000 homes
and businesses to be flooded, and a vast number of search and rescue
missions (Platt, 2013). The picture below shows a home in Gloucester where
water is just a few inches away from entering the house even with defences
up.
Figure 1. July 24 2007.Coyeta brown,claus pittaway and sophie pittaway. Alney terrace, Gloucester.
Photography by Matt Cardy/Getty. Source: The Guardian.Available at:
http://www.theguardian.com/news/gallery/2007/jul/23/flooding#img-19
Heavy rain fell in a short space of time causing both the River Severn and
River Avon to burst their banks (Platt, 2013). Many residents in the
Gloucestershire area were affected with up to 7ft of water in places leading
12. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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to 13 fatalities and 7,000 people being rescued. The flood event caused the
Mythe water treatment works to shut down for 2 weeks (Platt, 2013)
consequently leading to 135,000 houses in Gloucestershire to be without
drinking water for up to 17 days. Due to the substantial number of citizens
without water, 40 million bottles of water and 1,400 bowsers were deployed
and distributed around Gloucestershire. 5,000 properties and businesses
flooded causing 48,000 homes to be without electricity for two days.
Transport networks failed due to power failure causing 10,000 citizens
stranded on the M5 overnight and 500 commuters stranded at Gloucester
train station leading to the council accommodating 2,500 people in local
authority rest centres. The picture below shows how Tewkesbury was
isolated during the flood event, the only escape of water was on high ground
around the Abbey.
Figure 2. The town of Tewkesbury during the emergency.Photography by Daniel Berehulak/Getty.
Source: The Guardian.
During the summer 2007 floods, approximately 185,000 commercial
businesses in the UK were at risk of flooding with an average loss from
flooding being £28,000 (Know your flood risk, 2013). During the floods in
Gloucestershire 9,000 businesses were affected, and The Gloucester Citizen
(2010) reported that the average cost incurred per flooded business was
between £75,000 and £112,000, with 95 per cent of companies covered by
insurance. This event caused £50 billion worth of damage and a £3 billion
13. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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insurance pay outs (Environment Agency, 2010). The image below shows a
flooded Canterbury Arms in Tewkesbury.
Figure 3. This image shows the landlady of the flooded Canterbury Arms in Tewkesbury surveying the
damage ofher pub.Photography by:Matt Cardy/Getty. Source:The Guardian
This dissertation wanted to look at how the summer 2007 flood event
affected businesses in Gloucester. This study analyse what the perceptions
of the floods were like from businesses that were flooded in the event,
explore how well the management of the floods were in the businesses, and
to evaluate if the choice of actions that the businesses took during and after
the floods did and could help for a future flood event similar to the flood in
2007. These aims will be undertaken using the method of questionnaires,
which would then be critically analysed using excel and SPSS.
15. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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West), up through Gloucester then North-east towards Tewkesbury. The
smaller blue lines show the tributaries running off the River Severn across
the rest of Gloucestershire. The blue block areas of colour shows the flooded
areas that were saturated at the time of the summer 2007 flood event.
Figure 5. Constructed GIS showing the affected areas of flooding in the summer 2007 flood event.
Gloucester coverage,using Edina Digimap ordinance survey service,<http://Edina.ac.uk/digimap>
The constructed ArcGIS map above shows how wide the affected areas
were during the 2007 floods. Further investigation on the floodplains in
Gloucestershire were looked into. Figure 5 shows us the floodplains of
Locationmap legend
Gloucestershire
Tributaries
RiverSevern
Affectedareas
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Gloucestershire. The blue blocked areas show fluvial flooding from a 1 in 100
year flood and the light pink block areas show the affected areas from tidal
flooding.
Figure 6. Shows the floodplains in Gloucestershire with the areas that would be affected in a 1 in 100
year flood event. Source: Gloucestershire county council,2007.
The figure below shows a detailed map of how the Gloucester district
floodplain would look like with a 1 in 100 year flood. The North-west side of
Gloucester would be completely flooded by fluvial flooding, as well as a
stretch of water from west to east of the centre of Gloucester.
Figure 7. Shows the floodplain in the Gloucester District. Source: Gloucestershire county council,
2007.
The figure below shows a detailed map of how the Tewkesbury district
floodplain would look like with a 1 in 100 year flood. It shows the west of
Tewkesbury would be affected the most as this is where the River Avon
flows through before joining the River Severn.
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Figure 8. Showing the floodplain in the Tewkesbury district.Source: Gloucestershire county council,
2007.
The Environment Agency have put defences alongside the River Severn as
shown in figure 11 It shows that most of Gloucester is protected from the
river except for the North-east side which has little defence.
Figure 9. This figure shows a 1:75000 map of the flood defences put in by the River Severn in
Gloucester. Source:EnvironmentAgency (2016)
The Environment Agency have put defences alongside the River Severn as
shown in figure 12. It shows that most of the River Severn is protected
however not the River Avon, hence the major flooding of Tewkesbury in the
2007 floods.
Key
River Severn
Flood defences
Flood zone
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3.0: Review of literature
3.1 Flooding in a global and national context
Baker, 2015 describes flooding as a bed of water reaching and exceeding
above the level of the bank that it is held in, and escapes and flows onto a
floodplain; whilst Smith, 2001 describes one of the main causes of flooding to
be excessive precipitation. The IPCC, 2012 has informed through their paper
that through climate change the frequency and severity of floods is expected
to rise around the world. The physical conditions that cause flooding can be
semi-predictable or random storms. These semi-predictable rainfall can be
seasonal rains such as increased rainfall in winter months, annual monsoon
floods, or flash floods. Physical atmospheric features cause precipitation
which infiltrates into the ground and saturates it causing run off of
precipitation into streams and river channels increasing the water level and
thus leading to exceed the river banks causing flooding. Figure 8 shows how
different physical conditions can cause flooding.
Figure 11. Physical causes of flooding.Source: Smith (2001).
Different types of land use can change run off dramatically. In built up
urbanised areas there is less permeable land as well as a decrease in
vegetation which can cause less infiltration onto the land. This type of land
use can cause a decrease in lag time between the source of the water to it
reaching the river bank- with it being up to 10 times faster in urbanised areas
compared to natural conditions.
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An article by Islam et al., 2016 reports that global sea levels have been rising
since the 20th century and consequently countries in Asia are being
threatened by this rise due to densely populated deltas. Bangladesh is one
country that is highly affected from flooding as only 10% of it is above sea
level and will suffer extensive damages for the foreseeable future.
The PITT Review, 2008 calculated the total loss from the summer 2007
floods to be approximately £4Billion, with just over half of that being losses
from households and businesses. £1Billion of insurance was paid out to
businesses in which 56 per cent of the total was paid by private insurance.
During this time approximately 7,300 commercial properties were affected
resulting in a total caused damage cost £674Million worth of damage to
infrastructure and essential services especially the supply and treatment of
water and electricity services leading to insurance claims up to £58Million.
The mass damage to businesses resulted in damaged premises, equipment,
and stock which would have most likely affected the whole trade. The
economic loss to businesses reported to be £50Million, however the
Environment Agency assessed the costs for impact damage to be
£740Million. Baubion (2015) reports in his literature that most of the time the
operation losses of a business is less obvious to the outside world.
Businesses are affected the most by disruption of the production caused by
damage from the floods, and can consequently have effect on the distribution
of goods.
3.2 Flood risk and development.
Gloucestershire county council, 2007 has reported that there is now an
increased demographic pressure leading to more infrastructure and
developments which are now being constructed in flood risk areas across
Gloucestershire. With over 1000 businesses located in Gloucestershire’s
floodplain only 4 per cent of these are located in the extreme 1 in 100 year
floodplain, however the number of employees affected would be around
19,000. Companies with a smaller work force would be affected more as
these account for 64 per cent of all businesses at risk, whilst only 4 per cent
of the larger companies are at risk on the floodplain. Businesses in the
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floodplain include wholesalers, retail, estate agents, manufacturers, or
construction.
Table 1. A table showing the main businesses on the 1 in 100 year floodplain.Source:Gloucestershire
county council,2007
Main businesses on 1 in 100 year floodplain by sector and size.
Sector number of businesses
Small retailers/wholesaler 245
Small financial intermediation, real estates, other
business activities
208
Small manufacturers 106
Small construction companies 82
Small organisations in education, health, social work 53
Small hotels, restaurants 52
Small organisations in other community, social,
person service activities
45
3.3 Preparedness and management
In the UK the experience of summer flash floods is not uncommon. Over
the past years there has been an increased worry about the higher frequency
and the preparedness of the population that could be affected (Hopkins and
Warburton, 2015). There is an increasing population living on floodplains in
Gloucestershire, with a population of 20,200 (Gloucestershire county council,
2007). The table below shows the population of people who are located on
floodplains.
Table 2. Number ofhomes and population located on floodplains in Gloucestershire.Source:
Gloucestershire county council 2007.
Floodplain population in districts
Cheltenham
Cotswold's
Forest of dean
Gloucester
Stroud
Tewkesbury
Number of homes
1,300
1,900
700
1,800
1,200
800
Number of people
2,900
4,400
1,700
6,500
2,900
1,800
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Total: Gloucestershire 8,700 20,200
By taking action to prepare for flooding, businesses can save anything up
to 90% on the cost of lost stock and moveable equipment (Cabinet maker,
2005). Understandably if an area floods regularly that a business is situated
in, the cost of insurance, stock and equipment will be more of a problem.
Figure 12. Showing the EU flood risk managementplan.Source:Nquot,2014.
Predicted increase in climate change will change the severity and
frequency of flooding in certain regions around the world (Aerts et al, 2009)
and is likely to result in more intense precipitation which will increase runoff
and river flow leading to more extreme flood events (Kotov et al, 2006) such
as a 1 in 75 annual chance of a flood experienced by 1.5million people in
England and Wales (Evans et al, 2004). With heightened risk of climate we
need to adapt to cope and mitigate damage. We can understand that
absolute prevention and protection from floods is not achievable, so move
towards managing flood risks (Birkholz et al, 2014). Gérard (2016) describes
rare floods in urban areas to trigger public investment into flood defences to
be able to reduce the flood risk. Mitigation policies can save property and
lives when a flood event occurs, even if the flood cannot be prevented at all.
Local citizens of affected areas often have their own strategies for dealing
with flood risk. Blaikie et al (1994) explains that in communities, citizens try to
go along the routes of self and social protection with help from the
community and non-governmental agencies. The Netherlands have several
adaptation methods which are currently being applied (Aerts et al, 2005).
Flood proofing infrastructure is one method-however costly, with estimates of
€10,000 and €20,000 per building. Alternatively replacing floors to tiled floors
before floods could save citizens more money in the future (Aerts et al,
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2009). Italy has a flood protection history which goes back to the Roman
times which includes soil conservation schemes (Nemec et al, 1993). Platt,
2013 has estimated that for every £1 that is spent on flood defences saves
£8 on the repair and clean-up costs overall, however if there was no
intensive land use on floodplains or along sea shores, then the flood risk
hazard would drop immensely (Smith, 2001) so there would be no need for
repair and clean-up costs.
The perceptions of those who are affected by the floods have been well
researched (Aerts et al, 2009) and are increasingly well understood (Kotov,
2006). Perceptions are critical to help adapt and influence expectations on
flood management (Becker et al, 2014) to prepare for a future event
especially when it comes to national and local planning which should reflect
any potential challenges. Settlement and road construction have increased
surface run off (Nemec et al, 1993) which reduces storage capacity for
precipitation thus increasing the change of flooding.
Literature from Qasim et al., 2015 reports that the perception of risk people
have has resulted in more flood preparedness and mitigation, this is due to
people having higher risk perceptions taking more actions to avoid the risk,
as they are more aware of the coming threats to them and so will adjust and
adapt instead of trying to fight the flood. Coping strategies have included
training sessions and gathering of necessary resources, as well as
involvement from people in flood prevention programmes. However, risk
perceptions differ with every individual as everyone sees risk differently due
to experience of risk. The experience of risk decides the response when a
natural hazard is approaching to the vulnerability and attitude of that
individual. However Lawrence et al, 2014 believes that risk perceptions are
affected by how information is communicated and that perceptions of those
who were affected by flooding are critical to help adapt responses especially
from those who have experienced loss of lives. Individuals who have
experienced flooding before would increase the preparedness of households
and businesses and would make greater change and adaptation to reduce
flooding in their dwelling. If people are unaffected in past situations, it leads
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to a thinking of not being affected in the future, hence an unpreparedness if a
hazard takes action.
Haer et al., 2016 reports that risk management is becoming increasingly
important as more and more people are being located in areas that are flood-
prone. With weather conditions increasing in extremity, flood risk is now a
serious threat due to this associated climate change and suggestions for
residents on floodplain areas to prepare for flooding is proposed. In Haer et
al’s paper it is suggested to carry this out in a campaign style. However this
method has hardly been studied, and does not always follow out in the action
preferred due to the effectiveness of communication. This method was
carried out and was examined on how well the communication to individuals
was spread through the social networks. This method could work as an
informal basis of communication of prevention however it will always be more
suited for information to come from an official figure such as the local council.
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4.0: Methodology
This chapter will outline my main method of data collection to determine
the experience of businesses flooded in the 3007 floods, perceptions of
businesses in the surrounding catchment area who are vulnerable of flooding
and the choice of actions businesses go through to defend their businesses
from flood events. The preliminary research stage began with a risk
assessment (appendix 2) and a preliminary questionnaire, as well as
completing an ethics assessment (appendix 3).
4.1 Initial stage
The main method used will be questionnaires. This is a qualitative method
of research leading to the exploration and understanding of a target group
(Creswell, 2009). Consideration of the ethical concerns (Davies and Hughes,
2014) associated with businesses such as the approach of how to get into
contact with the business and to state what the questionnaire is for and also
how to handle the data after collecting the data. The information gathered
should be relevant to the questions asked and be reliable and unbiased on
the behalf of the interviewer (Davies and Hughes, 2014). Location of
businesses that are around the Gloucestershire area will be examined and
contact will be made with them to see if it would be possible to ask them a
questionnaire that they could fill out to discuss how their business was
affected in the floods. The questionnaire will be electronic and paper based-
electronic based to the owners/managers of the businesses that can be
contacted online and paper based questionnaires for those I can’t get in
contact with and will go to businesses directly. This method will get direct
information from the business asked (McDonald, 2014), and are a cheap way
of asking information.
Questionnaires are an important resource for attaining information from
the general public (Bird, 2009) on a topic of study. The consideration on how
the questionnaire looks, such as the length and perceptions of the questions
need to be formatted. The questionnaire used in this study will have several
closed-ended questions so the respondents have a limited number of
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answers to choose from. The purpose of using this method is that it is a
simple method to collect categorical and numeric data (Davies and Hughes,
2014). Closed-ended questionnaires hold a number of advantages as they
are quick and easy to fill out, and need very little effort for those being
questioned (Charlton et al, 2014), they are also easier for interpretation and
to standardise (Birken et al, 2014). Closed-ended questionnaires will help the
write up of results as many businesses may have different opinions and
answers to the questions, where by undertaking closed-ended questions will
lead to easier understanding and interpreting. The use of Wordle could be
used to interpret open-ended answers as this will make it easy for recurring
answers to pop out. Survey Monkey was looked into to create the
questionnaire online however after deliberation Google forms was used to
create the questionnaire for businesses who was contactable through email.
This would be an easier way for them to gain access to the questionnaire,
and will also shorten the data collection period significantly (Davies and
Hughes, 2014).
4.2 Design
After the initial draft questionnaire, the design of the questionnaire needed
to be changed, the use of a book by Flowerdew and Martin (2005) was used
to help construct an improved questionnaire. Questionnaires help collect
data about behavior, attitude and opinions as well as classify circumstances
and environments. There are many variables that questionnaires can have.
These are: experimental or independent variables which include all variables
that may be possible predictors of the main effects that are being studied.
Dependent variables which are Main variables for which explanations are
being offered in terms of the way in which the independent variables
influence them. Finally controlled variables which are relationships between
a dependent variable and a set of independent variables there will be a
number of factors that need to be held constant in order that the relationships
can be more clearly established.
Questionnaire design is important to get the respondents to answer the
right questions that are suited to what is needed to know. The questions
should be firmly rooted, relate to the hypothesis and don’t have any leading
27. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
18
questions. Questionnaires shouldn’t have leading questions in them as they
are trying to get the respondent to answer in a certain way that could fit into
the aim of the questionnaire, these give unreliable results. Questions can be
closed-ended or open-ended or a mixture of the two (Bird, 2009). Most of the
questions that I devised are closed ended as they are easier to respond and
can avoid unrelated responses (Sarantakos, 2005). Face to face
questionnaires are better for the respondent as any questions from them can
be clarifies, responses which could be vague can be made sense of, a higher
response rate will occur. On the other hand, this method can be costly if
numerous questionnaires are printed, it is time consuming, and the
interviewer’s presence may alter the respondents answer (Bird, 2009).
The stages of questionnaire survey that will be carrying out will be 1:
Initial research idea, 2: develop aims and research objectives, 3: design how
the research will be carried out- in this case it will be questionnaires mostly
on online forms using google forms. 4: draft copy of the questionnaire, 5:
tweaking of the questionnaire, 6: heading out to the field and carry out the
main research, 7: processing and analysing data to produce results.
4.3 Preliminary research and modification
The original research area of the study was the Docks in Gloucester. The
initial scan of the area was carried out in early November and after
conducting preliminary questionnaires results showed that the dock area did
not flood to a great extent, so research would have to be carried out to
discover where the main areas in Gloucester which flooded in the 2007
floods were. Data collection was then carried out in the North of Gloucester
where flooding had previously been, however whilst conducting the
questionnaires it was noted that many businesses had exchanged hands
over the years so had different owners who was not aware of the business
being flooded or if some of the business was not there at the time of the
flood. After deliberating a decision was made to extend the research area to
Gloucestershire, and to focus on the North of Gloucester and Tewkesbury as
their locations are closer to the River Severn and River Avon which indicates
that they were more susceptible of being flooded at the time of the 2007
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19
floods. Main data collection was carried out over a few days at the end of
November.
Over the process of data collection, the questionnaire had to be changed
and modified depending on the research area and who was answering it. It
had originally been planned for owners or managers who were with the
business at the time of the flood event to answer it, however after conducting
preliminary research a realisation that many shop attendants would be
answering it on behalf of the owners, so would not know as much
information. An obstacle of how to get around businesses that weren't
present at the time of the floods by looking at their perceptions of being close
to the River Severn and River Avon which could burst its banks and flood the
businesses around the rivers was added to the questionnaire. Conducting a
questionnaire that was both relevant to shop owners and shop attendants as
well as businesses that were there when the floods occurred and those that
were not was the next step. The questionnaire was redesigned with a part A
and part B sections, with Part A being for businesses that were affected and
part B for businesses views of flooding in Gloucestershire (see appendix 1).
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5.0: Results
Below shows the results from the methodology outlined which was
conducted on Friday 27th November 2015. Some businesses did not answer
all of the questions as they were not relevant to them, hence splitting up the
questionnaire into part A and part B. Answers of N/A from the questionnaire
were taken out when creating graphs and charts.
5.1 Vulnerability
Figure 13. This pie chart shows that out of 20 responses from the questionnaire,65% ofthe
businesses were affected in the 2007 flood event, whilst 35% were not.
Was your business affected in the 2007 floods?
yes no
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Figure 14. This bar graph is shows results from question 4 in the questionnaire.Itshows what
procedures businesses had in place before the floods. Results show that businesses had business
insurance,insurance for equipment,transportprocedures,evacuation procedures,sandbags,and
some had signed up to FloodLine.
Figure 15. This graph shows the results from question 2 and 3 from the questionnaire.Itshows that
more people were affected by mains water and was affected for a longer period,whereas affected
power by the majority was for <10 days.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Insurance for
business
Insurance for
equipment
Transport
procedures
Evacuation
procedure
Sandbags FloodLine
Procedures before the floods?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
<10 days month 2-5 months <10 days month up to 3
months
Numberofpeopleaffected
water affected power affected
Time of mains water and power affected
31. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
22
5.2 Perceptions
Figure 16. From question 7 in the questionnaire.Out of the 20 people asked 18 responses shows that
14 people agreed thatthere was enough advice available whilstonly 4 people believed thatthere was
not enough advice available.
Figure 17. Question 8 from the questionnaire.80% of the respondents believed they saw
managements ofthe floods,whilst 20% didn’t see any managements.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
yes no
Do you think there was enough advice
available to your business during the floods?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
no yes
Did you see any management of the floods?
32. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
23
Figure 18. From question 9 from the questionnaire,the question of “On a scale from extremely poor to
extremely good,how did you think the local risk managementwas?” From this we can see that 25%
thoughtit was Mediocre, 25% neither bad or good, 10% was satisfied,20% somewhatgod, and 20%
good.
Figure 19. Question 2 from Part B of the questionnaire showed that 80% of the respondents did not
feel vulnerable in the areas being so close to water, whereas 20% did.
On a scale of extremely poor to extremely good, how
good did you think the local risk management was?
extremely poor
very poor
poor
mediocre
neither bad or good
satisfied
somewhat good
good
very good
extremly good
Do you feel vulnerable in this area with the
location of business being so close to water?
yes no
33. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
24
Figure 20. Question 3 from part B of the questionnaire.These results show that 90% of the
respondents believe thatinstead of fighting the flood,we should adaptinstead,whilst only 10%
disagreed with this quote.
Table 3. This table shows unguided answers from the question of “What do you think the local
governmentcould have done to help people in situations whose businesses was affected?” 3 main
themes occurred from the businesses- protection,advice,and education.
Protection Advice Education
Sandbags
Flood preventions
Equipment insurance
Reports
Updates
Guidance leaflets
News updates
Weather updates
Flood awareness
courses
More awareness in
schools
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
agree disagree
Do you agree or disagree with this quote: “Instead of
fighting the flooding, we should adapt instead”.
34. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
25
5.3 Choice of action
Table 4. This table shows results from questions 10 and 11 from the questionnaire.Itshows from who
was flooded and not flooded and if they know of FloodLine and signed up to it.
Flooded Not flooded
Know of FloodLine
Yes
No
Signed up to FloodLine
Yes
No
9
4
4
9
2
5
1
6
Part of the results from table 4 were put into SPSS to form a Chi-square test,
however due to the frequency being less than 5 in some cells, Fisher’s test
had to be used. The Null hypothesis for this was that the businesses that
were flooded must have not been signed up to FloodLine as it seemed like
they were unprepared for the flood event.
Table 5. Shows the results from the Chi-square and Fisher’s test. From this table it is shown that
P=0.613.
Chi-Square Tests
Value df
Asymp. Sig. (2-
sided)
Exact Sig. (2-
sided)
Exact Sig. (1-
sided)
Pearson Chi-Square .659a
1 .417
Continuity Correctionb
.073 1 .787
Likelihood Ratio .703 1 .402
Fisher’s Exact Test .613 .406
Linear-by-Linear Association .626 1 .429
N of Valid Cases 20
a. 2 cells (50.0%) have expected countless than 5. The minimum expected countis 1.75.
b. Computed onlyfor a 2x2 table
From these results as P=0.613 and is greater than 0.05, we can accept the
null hypothesis of that businesses who were flooded must have not been
signed up to FloodLine.
35. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
26
The study wanted to evaluate observations against expectations. By this the
experience of flooding was compared to precautions taken before flood
event. Table 5 was created in SPSS using the two-way classification chi-
square test.
Table 6. This shows a SPSS crosstabulation count.Results show that out of 20 businesses,12
businesses were flooded buthad precautions in place,1 businesses thatalso got flooded did not have
precautions in place before.7 businesses in total did not flood, but3 had precautions set up before the
floods and 4 set up precautions after.
Experience * precautions Crosstabulation
Count
precautions
Totalyes no
experience flooded 12 1 13
not flooded 3 4 7
Total 15 5 20
However, after carrying out the chi-square test count crosstabulation, it
shows that there was a frequency of 5 or less in some of the cells. To get a
result Fisher’s exact test was used as this can be used however small the
expected frequency is.
Table 7. This shows the results from the Chi-Square and fisher’s test. From this test the results show
that the P value equals to P=0.031
Chi-Square Tests
Value df
Asymp. Sig. (2-
sided)
Exact Sig. (2-
sided)
Exact Sig. (1-
sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 5.934a 1 .015
Continuity Correctionb
3.590 1 .058
Likelihood Ratio 5.882 1 .015
Fisher's Exact Test .031 .031
Linear-by-Linear Association 5.637 1 .018
N of Valid Cases 20
a. 2 cells (50.0%) have expected countless than 5. The minimum expected countis 1.75.
b. Computed onlyfor a 2x2 table
The null hypothesis of this test will be that businesses would be inclined to
be flooded if they did not have any precautions before the floods. The results
of the test show that P=0.31, and as it is less than 0.05 we have to reject the
null hypothesis.
36. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
27
Table 8. This table shows the number ofcompanies thatmention certain preparation methods when
there is a risk of a flood. Preparation methods include,exists,plans,water, power, and FloodLine.
What do you think you can do to
prepare when there is a risk of a
flood?
Number of companies that
mention these.
Sandbags
Emergency exists
Emergency plan
Emergency water
Back-up power (generator)
FloodLine
3
3
11
3
4
4
Figure 21. This bar graph shows the procedures putinto place after the floods were insurance,
sandbags,evacuation procedures and signing up to FloodLine.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
evacuation procedure sandbags insurance floodline
Were there procedures put into place after
the floods?
37. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
28
6.0: Discussion
A total of 21 questions were asked in the questionnaire, with a part A and
part B section for businesses who experienced different conditions during the
2007 floods. Part A for those who were affected in the 2007 floods- this
section helped with the experience and choice of actions sections of the
results, and part B for businesses views on flooding in Gloucestershire- this
section helped with the perceptions section of the results.
6.1 Experience and vulnerability
Every business during a flood experiences slight difference to other
businesses. The research carried out was a questionnaire looking into how
the 2007 flood event in Gloucestershire affected businesses and how the
perception of flooding has changed as well as any precautions the business
has untaken. Research carried out concluded 20 respondents from a range
of businesses in Gloucester and Tewkesbury and from these, 65 per cent
were affected by the 2007 floods.
The procedures that businesses had in place before the 2007 floods was
of a mixed variety. 9 of the respondents had business insurance, 7 had
procedures for transport to get into work, 6 had sandbags to use to protect
the entrances of the business, 5 already had insurance for equipment used,
and 2 were signed up to FloodLine. In the study, it was noted how bad the
flooding was in the areas which were studied by looking at how long the
mains water and power was affected. During the summer 2007 floods, 13
businesses was affected by loss of mains water, with 8 being affected for a
month, 4 being affected for under 10 days, and only 1 being affected for over
2 months. 12 businesses was affected by loss of power, with 7 affected for
under 10 days, 4 being affected for a month and 1 being affected for up to
three months.
It is shown in Figure 14 that even though insurance was one of the most
frequent procedure to have before the flood event of 2007, it was seen that
insurance was again one of the highest procedures put into place after the
38. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
29
floods (Figure 21), whether it was the procedure of getting insurance for the
business and equipment, or upping the policy.
6.2 Perceptions
The study wanted to look at how businesses perceptions were of the
floods, of what the government did during the floods, and how well the
management of the floods were. In question 7 of part A, it was asked if the
businesses believed that there was enough advice available from the
government during the floods. A response rate of 14 businesses believed
that there was enough advice available, whilst 80 per cent believed they saw
managements of the floods. However, the local government could have done
more to help in these flood situations. It was believed that the local
government could have added more protection with the likes of flood
protection for example sandbags, and more help to gain equipment
insurance was suggested. More advice would have also been liked, with
updates and reports readily available for businesses as well as guidance
leaflets, news updates and weather updates. A suggestion of more education
in the likes of flood awareness courses in which at least one person in a
business should have been on, as well as more education about floods and
preparedness in schools.
Local risk management was looked at (question 9) using a Likert scale
from extremely poor to extremely good managements of the floods. The
question of “On a scale from extremely poor to extremely good, how did you
think the local risk management was?” with a response of 25 per cent of the
respondents feeling that the local risk managements was mediocre, 25 per
cent neither bad or good, 10 per cent satisfied, 20 per cent somewhat good,
and 20 per cent good. From these responses it felt that the businesses
should have been more concerned about the location of their businesses as
it is located in close proximity of major rivers. However, it is shown that 80
per cent of respondents did not feel vulnerable about being located so close
to water, whilst 20 per cent did. From this study, it is learnt that 90 per cent of
the respondents believe that instead of fighting the flood, we should adapt
instead. (STUDY ON ADAPTATION???)
39. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
30
Contradictions are shown in some of the results. In figure 16 it is shown
that businesses do not feel like there was enough advice available during the
floods however, if businesses believe that there was not enough readily
available advice why had the FloodLine sign up not been more drastic?
Table 5 uses Fisher’s test to look into the null hypothesis of whether
businesses that were flooded must have not been signed up to FloodLine, as
it seemed that many were unprepared for the flood. The results of the test
show that we could accept this null hypothesis. This shows that many
businesses were unprepared in the sense of updates of the situation of the
flood, which from the results showed that businesses wanted more of.
Secondly, businesses reported that they felt safe in their location and did not
feel vulnerable however, it is reported in figure 17 that there was not a great
deal of management seen during the floods. In table 3, the question asked
“What do you think the local government could have done to help people in
situations whose businesses was affected” answers included reports and
updates- these could have been available if businesses had signed up to
FloodLine.
6.3 Choice of actions
A comparison was made between businesses who was flooded and had a
knowledge of FloodLine or who were signed up to it, and businesses who
were not flooded, did/didn’t know of FloodLine or was signed up to it. Out of
all the respondents, only 50 per cent who knew who FloodLine are was
signed up to it, with a total of 5 signed up to FloodLine before or after the
flood event. 80 per cent of businesses that did not flooded, did not know who
FloodLine were or about their services, and a total of 75% of the respondents
not signed up to FloodLine. With limited number of businesses signed up to
FloodLine it was wondered whether the 2007 floods had encouraged
businesses to sign up, however results show that the minority of businesses
that had signed up to FloodLine did so before the floods, only 1 business
decided after the floods to sign up.
Choice of actions that businesses take after the floods can decrease or
stop the risk of flooding to businesses like what had occurred in the 2007
floods. It was asked (question 4) during the questionnaire to the businesses
40. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
31
about how they could prepare for flooding. Businesses responses were to
increase sandbags, to have more emergency exists in buildings and for
these to be made aware to the staff and the general public, the owners to set
out an emergency plan if it is likely that the business will be flooded,
emergency water for after the business is safe to use again if mains water is
not back on, and a suggestion of a back-up power supply such as a
generator should be put in place so that business can still run even when the
mains power supply is down or not working, and finally a couple of
businesses said that they would look into signing up to FloodLine for the
advice and service that they provide.
The choice of actions of procedures that businesses put into place after
the floods were shown in table 4 in the results section. The correlation of an
increase in sandbags put into place after the floods correlates with what
businesses had mentioned of what they could do to prepare for when there is
a risk of a flood. Evacuation procedures had also increased which shows in
figure 21 and was mentioned by 11 companies from what they thought they
could do to prepare for a risk of a flood. However, it is surprising that there is
no mention of insurance in table 4, as in figure 21 it shows that there is a
growth of businesses increasing their insurance after the floods.
41. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
32
7.0: Conclusion
This dissertation wanted to look at how the summer 2007 flood event
affected businesses in Gloucester. The results from this paper revealed that
the perceptions of businesses has changed due to the precautions they have
undertaken. During the summer 2007 floods, over half of the businesses
asked had been affected by loss of water and power, therefore insurance
cover was a procedure that many businesses had and paid a premium to
have better insurance to help with the clean-up costs if an event like the
2007 floods did happen again in the future. Bhattacharya-mis and Lamond
(2014) shows that flood memory is key in making decisions for future events
like the 2007 flood event. The flood memory influences knowledge and
experience and makes choices to carry out to protect for the future. The
perceptions of flooding is different in Gloucestershire compared to other
studies such as Baubion (2015) which reports that authorities such as local
and national governments become concerned of the fragility of the areas of
disaster when flooding occurs, and to help them adapt to extreme weather.
Research carried out by
The exploration of how well the management of the floods showed that 70
Per cent of the businesses asked believed that there was enough advice
available during the floods with 80 per cent seeing enough managements of
the floods. However businesses would still prefer more information in times
of a flood event. They believe that the local government could offer more
protection, guidance in the form of leaflets with news and weather updates,
and they would like to see more education not only in schools but also in the
form of flood awareness and prevention courses. Even though businesses
want all these resources they themselves are not signing up to the service of
FloodLine that provides these. From the research carried out it feels like the
businesses should have been more concerned about the location of their
businesses as it is located in close proximity of major rivers, however 80%
did not feel vulnerable about location- this could be due to flood memory as
the summer 2007 floods were nine years ago so many businesses have
forgotten to what extent it was like and some were not even in the locations
that they are in now.
42. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
33
The evaluation of procedures that were put into place after the floods
showed that there did not seem to be a significant change in those that were
already in place before the floods. Was this due to the businesses not feeing
vulnerable in the location that they were in? Or was it merely the flood
memory of the businesses not feeling that they need flood protection until the
situation seems real and a flood occurs? The lack of procedures put into
place after the floods is a cause for concern as the flooding in 2007 was
unforeseen and caught many off guard (Platt, 2013). Consequently many do
not want this to happen again especially as it caused 13 fatalities as well as
over 55,000 homes and businesses to be flooded. The amount of
precipitation that falls leading to a flood happens in such a short period of
time that if businesses acted quickly when the flooding begins, they would
still be unprepared.
To improve this study there are a few improvements that I would have
changed. Firstly, I would have increased the research size, by conducting
questionnaires in a bigger research area covering the whole of
Gloucestershire in areas that were affected by the 2007 floods. However,
due to the flood event being nine years ago, many businesses have changed
hands or have move location so even getting the sample size of 20 was a
challenge for the researcher. More initial research into the areas to where
businesses are located needs to be conducted before research in the field.
Secondly, the questionnaire could be changed to more open-ended
questions to get businesses individual views across instead of the
quantitative data collected in this study.
Overall people are still concerned about flood risk, however there is a
changed perception of flooding as it has not occurred in the area for nine
years. The results of the study suggest that the experience of the floods has
changed the risk and businesses are now engaging through strategies so
that they should not be focusing on what the government does for the
business during the floods, but what the business itself does in preparation of
the floods.
43. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
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Appendices
Appendix one: Questionnaire asked to businesses for data collection.
Hello, I am a 3rd year Geography student from the University of
Gloucestershire and am looking into how the 2007 flood in Gloucestershire
affected businesses and how the perception of flooding has changed as well
as any precautions the business has untaken.
Please could you spend a few minutes of your time filling in this
questionnaire?
Part A: This section is for businesses that were affected in the 2007
floods
1. How long overall was the business affected?
<month [] 2-5 months [] 6-12 months [] over a year []
2. How long was the business without water? <10days [] 10-30 days
[] 1-3 months [] over 3 months []
3. How long was the business without power? <10days [] 10-30 days
[] 1-3 months [] over 3 months []
4. Did you have any procedures in place before the floods?
[] sandbags
[] insurance
[] for building
[] for equipment
[] signed up to flood line
[] evacuation procedure
[] transport procedures in case employees could not make it to work
[] no, the business did not have any procedures in place
49. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
40
[] other
……………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………
5. Did any of your staff have illnesses due to the floods, leading them to be
unable to work?
YES [] NO []
6. Were any of your staff affected by the disrupted transport links and
unable to get to work?
YES [] NO
[]
7. Do you think there was enough advice available to your business during
the floods, such as: flood management websites, the environmental
agency and local television?
YES [] NO []
8. Did you see any management of the floods? E.g. sandbags, defences.
YES [] NO
[]
9. On a scale of 1-10 (with 1 being not good at all to 10 being extremely
good) how good do you think the local risk management was?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10
10.Do you know what Floodline is?
YES []
NO []
11.Are you signed up to Floodline?
YES []
NO []
12.If yes, when did you sign up?
Before the floods [] during the
floods [] after the floods []
13.Were there procedures put into place after the floods?
[] sandbags
[] insurance
[] for building
[] for equipment
[] signed up to flood line
[] evacuation procedure
[] transport procedures in case employees cannot make it to work
[] no, the businesses didn’t put any procedures into place
50. S1301149_Osborn_C_NS6335_A002
41
[] other
……………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………
Part B: This section is for businesses views on flooding in
Gloucestershire.
1) What is it like to have a business in a close proximity of the River
Severn?
……………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………
2) Do you feel vulnerable in this area?
YES [] NO []
3) Do you agree or disagree with this quote: “Instead of fighting flooding, we
should adapt instead”.
AGREE [] DISAGREE []
4) What do you think you can do to prepare your business if there is a risk of
a flood?
……………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………
5) Do you think there should be more education about floods and what to do
in flood situations?
YES [] NO []
6) Do you have any procedures in place in event of a flood?
[] sandbags
[] insurance
[] for building
[] for equipment
[] signed up to flood line
[] evacuation procedure
[] transport procedures in case employees could not make it to work
[] no, the business did not have any procedures in place
[] other
……………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………
7) Is the business signed up to any flood warning systems e.g. Floodline?
YES [] NO []
8) Does this business feel vulnerable in an area of known flooding?
YES [] NO []
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Thank you for participating in this questionnaire for my University
Undergraduate Degree in BSc (Hons) Geography. If you have any questions,
please do not hesitate to contact me or my dissertation tutor on the email
addresses below.
Charlotte Osborn: s1301149@glos.ac.uk
Rachel Bennett: rbennett3@glos.ac.uk
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Appendix two: Risk Assessment
Location: Gloucester and Tewkesbury
Date: 27 November 2015
Activity/Task: Dissertation questionnaires to businesses
Potential hazards nature controls Actioned
Insurance Uk day trip Standard
university
insurance.
No action required
Medical and
emergency
training
First aid Know of location at
all times
Mobile phone
carried
survival Do not work alone Working with a
partner, ensure in
sight of partner at
all times
Group size Loan working Pre-define
fieldwork area,
remain in that
area.
Areas pre-
defined, and
remain in that
area until pick up
time.
Induction cash Carry small
amounts with you
No action needed
Transport Partners car Always wear
seatbelt
No action required
Experienced driver No action required
Ensure car
insurance cover Is
accurate
No action required
Perform standard
vehicle checks
No action required
Crime Vehicle crime Valuables taken
with you
No action required
Physical hazards Trips, slips, falls Do not run No action required
Do not climb No action required
Wear suitable
footwear
Checks before
leaving
Assistance with
the trip-partner
No action required
Struck by
transport
Vehicle awareness Looking both
ways before cross
roads
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Appendix three: Ethics
In relation to the Research Ethics handbook of principles and procedures.
As a researcher I have a responsibility to ensure that the physical, social
and psychological well-being of my research participants are not several
affected by the research that I am undertaking. Research relationships
should be characterised by mutual respect and trust.
The research carried out should be based on the freely given informed
consent of those under the study. The research needs to be explained fully
as it seems reasonable in terms of meaningful to the participants: the aims
and nature of the study and why it is being undertaken, as well as noting that
the participant’s business name will not be included in my study.
Care should be taken to ensure that the participants are not pressurised
into participation and have the right to refuse participation at any time, and
should not be given the impression that they are required to participate. It will
be explained that they research participants will be anonymous and all
findings will be only shown to dissertation tutors and regulators.
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Evaluation
Dissertation supervisor: Rachel Bennett
1. Dissertation guidance
1.1 the process of
completing my
dissertation was
clearly explained
Strongly
agree
5 4 3 2 1 Strongly disagree
X
1.2 Support provided
by your supervisor
was…
excellent 5 4 3 2 1 Very poor
X
1.3 I developed new
skills
considerably 5 4 3 2 1 Not at all
X
1.3 The dissertation
extended my learning
Considerably 5 4 3 2 1 Not at all
X
2. Your effort
2.1 I attended session
to help with my
dissertation
All 5 4 3 2 1 Very few
X
2.2 To support my
dissertation I read…
Extensively 5 4 3 2 1 Not at all
X
2.3 I sought support
from my supervisor
Frequently 5 4 3 2 1 Not at all
X
2.4 I planned my work
well in advance
Defiantly 5 4 3 2 1 Not at all
X
3. Resources and location
3.1 the labs/cubicles
used for my data
collection were
appropriate
Very 5 4 3 2 1 Not used
X
Other necessary
resources were
available
Very 5 4 3 2 1 Not used
X
Library resources
were useful
Definitely 5 4 3 2 1 Not at all
X
