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                   Enquirica – Oil Prices Thank God the Soviet Union Collapsed
                   Enquirica Reserch - October 2011
 
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
                                                                                                                            	
  

       Oil Prices Thank God Soviet Union Collapsed

       Global	
  demand	
  for	
  oil	
  has	
  stayed	
  roughly	
  steady	
  at	
  2	
  liters/capita/day	
  for	
  the	
  
       past	
  few	
  decades	
  according	
  to	
  a	
  fascinating	
  paper	
  by	
  Joyce	
  M.	
  Dargy	
  and	
  
       Dermot	
  Gately.	
  
       	
  	
  
       But	
  this	
  apparent	
  stability	
  masks	
  a	
  more	
  volatile	
  reality.	
  	
  Since	
  1971,	
  OECD	
  
       countries	
  have	
  made	
  major	
  efficiency	
  strides,	
  the	
  Soviet	
  Union	
  saw	
  an	
  
       economic	
  collapse,	
  and	
  the	
  non-­‐OECD	
  developing	
  world	
  has	
  seen	
  soaring	
  
       demand.	
  




                                                                                                                                	
  
       	
  
       	
  
       	
  
 
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
                                                                                                                                        	
  
       	
  
       As	
  such,	
  expect	
  the	
  global	
  oil	
  "problem"	
  to	
  get	
  more	
  severe.	
  	
  Beyond	
  that	
  -­‐-­‐	
  
       and	
  this	
  is	
  really	
  the	
  crux	
  of	
  Dargy	
  and	
  Gately's	
  paper	
  –	
  we	
  have	
  moved	
  into	
  
       an	
  era	
  of	
  much	
  more	
  inelastic	
  demand.	
  In	
  other	
  words,	
  whereas	
  price	
  spikes	
  
       in	
  the	
  1970s	
  caused	
  major	
  pullbacks	
  in	
  consumption,	
  similar	
  price	
  spikes	
  
       these	
  days	
  don't	
  result	
  in	
  the	
  same	
  reductions.	
  
       	
  
       	
  
	
  


	
  
 
          	
  
          	
  
          	
  
          	
  
          	
  
          	
  
          	
  
          	
  
                                                                                                      	
  


Disclaimer: Material contained in this document (‘Content”) is for information purposes only and is not intended
to and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction, nor
should it be used for the purpose of making investment decisions. The information presented in this document
has been reprinted with permission of the author. Enquirica believes it has been researched and is thought to
be reasonable however, in general, investments are speculative, prices can go up but they can also go down,
and thus ENQUIRICA AND/OR ITS AGENTS CANNOT AND DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY RATE OF RETURN
OR INVESTED AMOUNT OR INVESTMENT TIMELINE. You acknowledge and agree that Enquirica and/or its
agents are not in the business of investment advice and are not classified, or presenting themselves as experts
but are only preliminary providers of general information. You should not rely on any opinion or other
information set out in the Content when making business, financial, personal or other decisions as it has not
been tailored to your specific needs. Please contact your registered adviser for information specific to your
requirements. Principals with Enquirica and/or other Content providers to the site may at times be engaged in
the distribution of exempt market securities through registered Exempt Market Dealers. Enquirica and its
service providers do not endorse the opinions of any third party expressed on the document. While any
information and material contained in the Content are reasonably believed by Enquirica to be accurate and
complete in all material respects at the time of posting, and although Enquirica makes reasonable efforts to
ensure that all such information and material remain current, accurate and complete, Enquirica accepts no
liability, responsibility or obligation whatsoever to post, update, amend, review or remove such information,
material or the Content or any portion thereof except as may be required by applicable law. You acknowledge
that such facts, information and material may change quickly and without notice and that such changes will take
time to be incorporate into Content, if they are incorporated at all. Enquirica may, at its sole discretion, post,
delete and amend Content without notice. Please see the Enquirica website for further disclaimer information –
www.enquirica.com.

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Enquirica Research- Oil Prices Thank God that the Soviet Union Collapsed

  • 1.                               Enquirica – Oil Prices Thank God the Soviet Union Collapsed Enquirica Reserch - October 2011
  • 2.                     Oil Prices Thank God Soviet Union Collapsed Global  demand  for  oil  has  stayed  roughly  steady  at  2  liters/capita/day  for  the   past  few  decades  according  to  a  fascinating  paper  by  Joyce  M.  Dargy  and   Dermot  Gately.       But  this  apparent  stability  masks  a  more  volatile  reality.    Since  1971,  OECD   countries  have  made  major  efficiency  strides,  the  Soviet  Union  saw  an   economic  collapse,  and  the  non-­‐OECD  developing  world  has  seen  soaring   demand.          
  • 3.                       As  such,  expect  the  global  oil  "problem"  to  get  more  severe.    Beyond  that  -­‐-­‐   and  this  is  really  the  crux  of  Dargy  and  Gately's  paper  –  we  have  moved  into   an  era  of  much  more  inelastic  demand.  In  other  words,  whereas  price  spikes   in  the  1970s  caused  major  pullbacks  in  consumption,  similar  price  spikes   these  days  don't  result  in  the  same  reductions.          
  • 4.                     Disclaimer: Material contained in this document (‘Content”) is for information purposes only and is not intended to and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction, nor should it be used for the purpose of making investment decisions. The information presented in this document has been reprinted with permission of the author. Enquirica believes it has been researched and is thought to be reasonable however, in general, investments are speculative, prices can go up but they can also go down, and thus ENQUIRICA AND/OR ITS AGENTS CANNOT AND DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY RATE OF RETURN OR INVESTED AMOUNT OR INVESTMENT TIMELINE. You acknowledge and agree that Enquirica and/or its agents are not in the business of investment advice and are not classified, or presenting themselves as experts but are only preliminary providers of general information. You should not rely on any opinion or other information set out in the Content when making business, financial, personal or other decisions as it has not been tailored to your specific needs. Please contact your registered adviser for information specific to your requirements. Principals with Enquirica and/or other Content providers to the site may at times be engaged in the distribution of exempt market securities through registered Exempt Market Dealers. Enquirica and its service providers do not endorse the opinions of any third party expressed on the document. While any information and material contained in the Content are reasonably believed by Enquirica to be accurate and complete in all material respects at the time of posting, and although Enquirica makes reasonable efforts to ensure that all such information and material remain current, accurate and complete, Enquirica accepts no liability, responsibility or obligation whatsoever to post, update, amend, review or remove such information, material or the Content or any portion thereof except as may be required by applicable law. You acknowledge that such facts, information and material may change quickly and without notice and that such changes will take time to be incorporate into Content, if they are incorporated at all. Enquirica may, at its sole discretion, post, delete and amend Content without notice. Please see the Enquirica website for further disclaimer information – www.enquirica.com.