Elections affect economies in several ways. During election years, government spending often rises which can increase inflation. Economic activity and new investment projects may slow down as businesses wait for the election results. The election outcome determines the new government's policies, which shape the economy by influencing laws, taxes, trade, and business regulations. Overall, elections can introduce short-term uncertainty and volatility in economic variables like GDP, inflation, and stock market performance until the new administration takes over and implements its agenda.
This document discusses elections and their relationship to economics. It defines both economics and elections, then explores how elections can affect the economy through influencing policy formation, international trade, GDP, inequality, and corruption. Specific economic factors like industrial production, inflation, businesses, growth, and investment are examined. The document also looks at where election money goes, differences between world and Sri Lankan election systems, weaknesses of Sri Lanka's paper-based elections, and how to overcome these weaknesses through modernizing and enforcing rules.
India is a constitutional democracy with a parliamentary system of government, and at the heart of the system is a commitment to hold regular, free and fair elections. These elections determine the composition of the government, the membership of the two houses of parliament, the state and union territory legislative assemblies, and the Presidency and vice-presidency.The mainstay of a democratic society .Elections helps to solve the problem of succession in leadership and thus contributes to the continuation of democracy .
Elections can affect the economy in several ways. Government spending typically increases in an average election year in an effort to boost the economy. However, the economy often slows down in the period leading up to elections as businesses and individuals adopt a wait-and-see approach. After the election, there is often an increase in investment and economic activity as the political uncertainty is resolved.
Government spending increases and economic activity slows ahead of elections. Investments and new projects decline as the consumption of steel and industrial credit growth decelerate during election years. On average, government spending rises 15.84% in election years compared to 11.38% in non-election years, and inflation is also higher at 8.56% versus 7.55% in non-election times.
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and drivers (2...Niteen S Dharmawat
2018 is a special year. It is a pre-election year. This presentation covers analysis of last 7 Loksabha spanning over 25+ years. It talks about various challenges and drivers during the election year and how the markets performed.
I did this analysis 5 years ago on pre-election year performance of the market. The market was hovering around 18500-19000 levels that time. Many were predicting that it will go down to 12,000. However, it went off exactly I talked about in my presentation. The market gave 22% absolute return in 2014 election year.
I see current situation no different. There is always an uncertainty about the future and fear of unknown. The fear could be legitimate as we have seen huge market up move during the last couple of quarters.
I have updated my presentation with the performance of 2014 and with current numbers. Will this year be different from others, only time will tell us.
As always, I eagerly look forward to your feedback.
1) Tesco operates in the UK grocery market which is dominated by four major players: Tesco, ASDA, Sainsbury, and Morrison.
2) A PESTEL analysis found that the UK has a stable political environment, growing economy, highly literate population, and supportive technological advances that benefit Tesco.
3) Porter's Five Forces model indicates that the market has strong competition among major players, power to buyers due to large retailers, and potential for brand substitution.
This short presentation gives the glimpses of current falling Indian Equity Market and compares it with worst such crash in the past. Recommended for investors contemplating lump sum investments and all who are worried about current market crash.
Elections affect economies in several ways. During election years, government spending often rises which can increase inflation. Economic activity and new investment projects may slow down as businesses wait for the election results. The election outcome determines the new government's policies, which shape the economy by influencing laws, taxes, trade, and business regulations. Overall, elections can introduce short-term uncertainty and volatility in economic variables like GDP, inflation, and stock market performance until the new administration takes over and implements its agenda.
This document discusses elections and their relationship to economics. It defines both economics and elections, then explores how elections can affect the economy through influencing policy formation, international trade, GDP, inequality, and corruption. Specific economic factors like industrial production, inflation, businesses, growth, and investment are examined. The document also looks at where election money goes, differences between world and Sri Lankan election systems, weaknesses of Sri Lanka's paper-based elections, and how to overcome these weaknesses through modernizing and enforcing rules.
India is a constitutional democracy with a parliamentary system of government, and at the heart of the system is a commitment to hold regular, free and fair elections. These elections determine the composition of the government, the membership of the two houses of parliament, the state and union territory legislative assemblies, and the Presidency and vice-presidency.The mainstay of a democratic society .Elections helps to solve the problem of succession in leadership and thus contributes to the continuation of democracy .
Elections can affect the economy in several ways. Government spending typically increases in an average election year in an effort to boost the economy. However, the economy often slows down in the period leading up to elections as businesses and individuals adopt a wait-and-see approach. After the election, there is often an increase in investment and economic activity as the political uncertainty is resolved.
Government spending increases and economic activity slows ahead of elections. Investments and new projects decline as the consumption of steel and industrial credit growth decelerate during election years. On average, government spending rises 15.84% in election years compared to 11.38% in non-election years, and inflation is also higher at 8.56% versus 7.55% in non-election times.
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and drivers (2...Niteen S Dharmawat
2018 is a special year. It is a pre-election year. This presentation covers analysis of last 7 Loksabha spanning over 25+ years. It talks about various challenges and drivers during the election year and how the markets performed.
I did this analysis 5 years ago on pre-election year performance of the market. The market was hovering around 18500-19000 levels that time. Many were predicting that it will go down to 12,000. However, it went off exactly I talked about in my presentation. The market gave 22% absolute return in 2014 election year.
I see current situation no different. There is always an uncertainty about the future and fear of unknown. The fear could be legitimate as we have seen huge market up move during the last couple of quarters.
I have updated my presentation with the performance of 2014 and with current numbers. Will this year be different from others, only time will tell us.
As always, I eagerly look forward to your feedback.
1) Tesco operates in the UK grocery market which is dominated by four major players: Tesco, ASDA, Sainsbury, and Morrison.
2) A PESTEL analysis found that the UK has a stable political environment, growing economy, highly literate population, and supportive technological advances that benefit Tesco.
3) Porter's Five Forces model indicates that the market has strong competition among major players, power to buyers due to large retailers, and potential for brand substitution.
This short presentation gives the glimpses of current falling Indian Equity Market and compares it with worst such crash in the past. Recommended for investors contemplating lump sum investments and all who are worried about current market crash.
A study of the Ghana stock market performance before and after general electionsGabriel Abbam
This document summarizes a dissertation that studied the performance of Ghana's stock market before and after the country's last five general elections in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. The study analyzed the Ghana Stock Exchange monthly indices from 1991 to 2009 using statistical tests to compare market performance in the years before and after elections. The study found a significant difference in market performance between pre- and post-election periods. However, comparing control years that did not include elections still showed significant differences, making it difficult to conclude that elections alone caused the changes in market performance. The dissertation provided background on Ghana's political system and history of general elections as well as the establishment and structure of the Ghana Stock Exchange.
This document discusses black money and the parallel economy in India. It defines black money and explains how it is generated through things like the desire to increase purchasing power, illegal transactions, corruption, and laws. It notes that parallel economies make up 8-50% of GDP in different countries. In India, the parallel economy grew from 9.5% of GDP in 1967-68 to 49% in 1978-79. The document discusses various tax amnesty programs in India that provided immunity from prosecution in return for disclosed income and revenue collected. It argues that regulations could help by incentivizing legal transactions, using value-added tax, and increasing vigilance. However, the best approach would be a mix of temporary and permanent legal
Demand forecasting by time series analysisSunny Gandhi
Demand is a buyer's willingness and ability to pay for a product or service. Demand forecasting estimates the quantity of a product that consumers will purchase. It is important for resource distribution, production planning, pricing decisions, and reducing business risk. Demand forecasting can be done at the micro, industry, or macro level. Common forecasting methods include time series analysis of historical sales data, market testing, and qualitative techniques like educated guesses. Accurate, plausible, simple, and durable demand forecasts are ideal.
Indian Elections - Analyse India - March 2014Nooresh Merani
The document analyzes how global stock markets performed around Indian national elections in 2004, 2009, and 2014. It finds that most markets experienced peaks and troughs in the 1-3 months before election results. In 2004, many markets bottomed out on May 17th after the BJP lost. In 2009, markets rallied strongly in the months prior then saw further gains post-election. The document concludes that global market trends, rather than election outcomes, have a stronger influence on markets. It suggests sectors like IT and oil & gas may lead gains in the coming years if they break multi-year highs.
Black money refers to funds earned on the books but unreported to avoid taxes. It exists due to factors like high taxes, corruption, and perceptions of government. Black money has grown significantly in India, estimated at 25-50% of GDP in developing countries. While some argue black money improves well-being and entrepreneurship, it undermines the tax system, economic forecasts, and public confidence. Past tax amnesty programs in India have had varying success in generating tax revenue from unreported funds. Moving forward, policies aim to curb black money through increased audits, incentives for legal transactions, and simplified tax compliance.
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and driversNiteen S Dharmawat
I did this analysis about 7 months ago on pre-election year performance of the market. The market was hovering around 18500-19000 levels that time. Many were predicting that it will go down to 12,000. However, it went off exactly I talked about in my presentation. The market as of today has crossed 21,000 giving cool 12% absolute return or 20% annualized returns.
This document summarizes a technical report on the impact of India's 2016 demonetization. It provides background on the demonetization, noting that ₹500 and ₹1000 notes made up 86% of cash in circulation. The author's objectives are to study past demonetizations, understand their outcomes, and analyze demonetization's effects and costs/benefits in India. Several studies are reviewed that model demonetization's impacts on GDP, markets, and inflation. Most countries that demonetized struggled with growth declines, but a few like the US and UK recovered after. The success of India's effort depends on behavioral factors and appropriate policy responses.
Business forecasting and timeseries analysis phpapp02MD ASADUZZAMAN
This document discusses time series analysis and forecasting. It defines forecasting as making predictions about the future based on past data and trends. Business forecasting estimates future sales, expenses, and profits. Time series analysis establishes relationships between variables over time. Key components of time series that influence trends include seasonal, cyclical, secular, and irregular variations. Common forecasting methods mentioned are regression analysis, exponential smoothing, and time series analysis. Measurement of trends can be done using techniques like least squares, moving averages, and semi-averages.
An Economic Inquiry into Ethiopian Exports: Pattern, characteristics, Dynamic...essp2
The document presents an economic analysis of Ethiopia's exports from 1995 to 2014. It finds that while Ethiopia's GDP and imports have grown substantially, export growth has been more modest, causing the trade deficit to widen. Exports are highly concentrated in commodities like coffee, making Ethiopia vulnerable to global price fluctuations. The analysis examines trade trends, composition, and dynamics using aggregate and firm-level data to evaluate Ethiopia's export performance and identify opportunities for diversification and growth.
The document discusses foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh. It states that FDI in Bangladesh increased by 13.75% in 2012 to $1.29 billion. The largest sources of FDI in 2012 were Malaysia, the UK, the Netherlands, and Thailand. FDI to Bangladesh has increased since the 1990s due to supportive policies and economic reforms. Major investors come from 36 countries, with the UK and US being the largest. Singapore and Hong Kong have also been significant investors.
Ethiopian exports growth characteristics, dynamics and survival berihu-asse...Berihu Assefa Gebrehiwot
Using both aggregate and firm-level Customs data, this paper examines Ethiopia’s export performance and dynamics over the period 1995/1996 – 2014/2015 from various dimensions. Specifically, we attempt to address the following issues:
(i) How concentrated/diversified are Ethiopia’s exports in terms of exporters, products, and markets? Or, over the past decade or so, has Ethiopia added economically significant numbers of new products and markets to its export portfolio.
(ii) To what extent do Ethiopian exporters survive beyond their first year of entry to the export market?
(iii) And finally we decompose export growth/contraction into intensive and extensive margins to see what drives export change in Ethiopia.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
A study of the Ghana stock market performance before and after general electionsGabriel Abbam
This document summarizes a dissertation that studied the performance of Ghana's stock market before and after the country's last five general elections in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. The study analyzed the Ghana Stock Exchange monthly indices from 1991 to 2009 using statistical tests to compare market performance in the years before and after elections. The study found a significant difference in market performance between pre- and post-election periods. However, comparing control years that did not include elections still showed significant differences, making it difficult to conclude that elections alone caused the changes in market performance. The dissertation provided background on Ghana's political system and history of general elections as well as the establishment and structure of the Ghana Stock Exchange.
This document discusses black money and the parallel economy in India. It defines black money and explains how it is generated through things like the desire to increase purchasing power, illegal transactions, corruption, and laws. It notes that parallel economies make up 8-50% of GDP in different countries. In India, the parallel economy grew from 9.5% of GDP in 1967-68 to 49% in 1978-79. The document discusses various tax amnesty programs in India that provided immunity from prosecution in return for disclosed income and revenue collected. It argues that regulations could help by incentivizing legal transactions, using value-added tax, and increasing vigilance. However, the best approach would be a mix of temporary and permanent legal
Demand forecasting by time series analysisSunny Gandhi
Demand is a buyer's willingness and ability to pay for a product or service. Demand forecasting estimates the quantity of a product that consumers will purchase. It is important for resource distribution, production planning, pricing decisions, and reducing business risk. Demand forecasting can be done at the micro, industry, or macro level. Common forecasting methods include time series analysis of historical sales data, market testing, and qualitative techniques like educated guesses. Accurate, plausible, simple, and durable demand forecasts are ideal.
Indian Elections - Analyse India - March 2014Nooresh Merani
The document analyzes how global stock markets performed around Indian national elections in 2004, 2009, and 2014. It finds that most markets experienced peaks and troughs in the 1-3 months before election results. In 2004, many markets bottomed out on May 17th after the BJP lost. In 2009, markets rallied strongly in the months prior then saw further gains post-election. The document concludes that global market trends, rather than election outcomes, have a stronger influence on markets. It suggests sectors like IT and oil & gas may lead gains in the coming years if they break multi-year highs.
Black money refers to funds earned on the books but unreported to avoid taxes. It exists due to factors like high taxes, corruption, and perceptions of government. Black money has grown significantly in India, estimated at 25-50% of GDP in developing countries. While some argue black money improves well-being and entrepreneurship, it undermines the tax system, economic forecasts, and public confidence. Past tax amnesty programs in India have had varying success in generating tax revenue from unreported funds. Moving forward, policies aim to curb black money through increased audits, incentives for legal transactions, and simplified tax compliance.
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and driversNiteen S Dharmawat
I did this analysis about 7 months ago on pre-election year performance of the market. The market was hovering around 18500-19000 levels that time. Many were predicting that it will go down to 12,000. However, it went off exactly I talked about in my presentation. The market as of today has crossed 21,000 giving cool 12% absolute return or 20% annualized returns.
This document summarizes a technical report on the impact of India's 2016 demonetization. It provides background on the demonetization, noting that ₹500 and ₹1000 notes made up 86% of cash in circulation. The author's objectives are to study past demonetizations, understand their outcomes, and analyze demonetization's effects and costs/benefits in India. Several studies are reviewed that model demonetization's impacts on GDP, markets, and inflation. Most countries that demonetized struggled with growth declines, but a few like the US and UK recovered after. The success of India's effort depends on behavioral factors and appropriate policy responses.
Business forecasting and timeseries analysis phpapp02MD ASADUZZAMAN
This document discusses time series analysis and forecasting. It defines forecasting as making predictions about the future based on past data and trends. Business forecasting estimates future sales, expenses, and profits. Time series analysis establishes relationships between variables over time. Key components of time series that influence trends include seasonal, cyclical, secular, and irregular variations. Common forecasting methods mentioned are regression analysis, exponential smoothing, and time series analysis. Measurement of trends can be done using techniques like least squares, moving averages, and semi-averages.
An Economic Inquiry into Ethiopian Exports: Pattern, characteristics, Dynamic...essp2
The document presents an economic analysis of Ethiopia's exports from 1995 to 2014. It finds that while Ethiopia's GDP and imports have grown substantially, export growth has been more modest, causing the trade deficit to widen. Exports are highly concentrated in commodities like coffee, making Ethiopia vulnerable to global price fluctuations. The analysis examines trade trends, composition, and dynamics using aggregate and firm-level data to evaluate Ethiopia's export performance and identify opportunities for diversification and growth.
The document discusses foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh. It states that FDI in Bangladesh increased by 13.75% in 2012 to $1.29 billion. The largest sources of FDI in 2012 were Malaysia, the UK, the Netherlands, and Thailand. FDI to Bangladesh has increased since the 1990s due to supportive policies and economic reforms. Major investors come from 36 countries, with the UK and US being the largest. Singapore and Hong Kong have also been significant investors.
Ethiopian exports growth characteristics, dynamics and survival berihu-asse...Berihu Assefa Gebrehiwot
Using both aggregate and firm-level Customs data, this paper examines Ethiopia’s export performance and dynamics over the period 1995/1996 – 2014/2015 from various dimensions. Specifically, we attempt to address the following issues:
(i) How concentrated/diversified are Ethiopia’s exports in terms of exporters, products, and markets? Or, over the past decade or so, has Ethiopia added economically significant numbers of new products and markets to its export portfolio.
(ii) To what extent do Ethiopian exporters survive beyond their first year of entry to the export market?
(iii) And finally we decompose export growth/contraction into intensive and extensive margins to see what drives export change in Ethiopia.
Similar to Elections, Politics & Stock Markets (14)
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
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Elections, Politics & Stock Markets
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Elections, Politics & Markets
Is there any relationship / trend?
If there is any, can we learn something from history?
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Why this question?
It is generally believed, and mostly seen, that during the election times, markets
become volatile. On the day of election results in particular, lot of ‘action’ is seen in
the Equity Markets. So, we thought of studying the past elections and behaviour of the
market during those periods of elections and try to understand whether there is any
relationship between two and to what extent and whether they help us to determine
a trend or direction of the market for the election that is just behind us and in future.
Method of Study / Approach:
Identify the past election dates and take some reference points (dates) before and
after election and note the market index - SENSEX - levels. Then determine the
incremental increase or decrease in the index levels.
We have chosen Sensex only (not Nifty) because it has longer history.
Scope of the Study:
We wished to cover maximum possible period in our study but due to the limitations
elections from 1991 to 2014 only are covered. Only SENSEX is observed. Any other
reason / cause other than elections , except ‘noting’ the stock market scams, which
should have had impact on the market are considered.
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Limitations:
Unavailability of well documented and reliable information about SENSEX for the period
before 1991.
Special Periods:
There are few special periods as below, when there were events, which have impacted /
influenced the market more than elections.
• 1990 to 1992 (2 Years period): Operation and exposition Harshd Mehta Scam
• 1999 to 2001 (2 year period): Operation and exposition of Ketan Parekh Scam
• Mid 2008 to Mid 2009 (1 Year period): Global Recession / Economy Crash
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#
This period (1990-1992) has to be seen with special care because of the Harshad Mehta Scam
^ This period (1999-2001) has tobe seen with special care because of the Ketan Parekh Scam
* This period (2008-2009) has to be seen with special care because of global recession, when there was abnormal and unusual volatility in the markets
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#
This period (1990-1992) has to be seen with special care because of the Harshad Mehta Scam
^ This period (1999-2001) has tobe seen with special care because of the Ketan Parekh Scam
* This period (2008-2009) has to be seen with special care because of global recession, when there was abnormal and unusual volatility in the markets
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TM
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#
This period (1990-1992) has to be seen with special care because of the Harshad Mehta Scam
^ This period (1999-2001) has tobe seen with special care because of the Ketan Parekh Scam
* This period (2008-2009) has to be seen with special care because of global recession, when there was abnormal and unusual volatility in the markets
8. +91 88 84 00 99 88www. Hornmerchant.comHornmerchant
TM
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#
This period (1990-1992) has to be seen with special care because of the Harshad Mehta Scam
^ This period (1999-2001) has tobe seen with special care because of the Ketan Parekh Scam
* This period (2008-2009) has to be seen with special care because of global recession, when there was abnormal and unusual volatility in the markets
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The above tables can be found in single wide spread sheet;
use it for better visualization http://goo.gl/8Ka8gh
Observations:
As elections from 1991 only are covered, due to unavailability of reliable Sensex data before that, only last 7
elections are covered. Even in those samples 3 election periods were affected by bigger events (scams &
recession) than election and hence they can not make the good case for studying them from election point of
view. And then, from Apr-1996 to Oct-1999 (less than 3.5 Years) there were 3 elections! That is something
highly unusual. This was because, political parties were not yet mentally prepared for coalition set-up; it took
3 elections for them to realize that it was inevitable.
However, here is the table that shows how much absolute return one would have earned by buying Sensex
(practically, say Sensex ETF) at different point of time just before and after the election and then exited one
or two years after the election.
Election
Year
Entries Exits Absolute Returns %
Entry-1 Entry-2 Entry-3 Entry-4 Entry-5 Exit-1 Exit-2 Entry-1 Entry-2 Entry-3 Entry-4 Entry-5 Entry-1 Entry-2 Entry-3 Entry-4 Entry-5
2
Months
Before
1 Month
Before
On
Election
Results
1 Month
After
3
Months
After
1 Year
After
2 Years
After
Exit-1 Exit-1 Exit-1 Exit-1 Exit-1 Exit-2 Exit-2 Exit-2 Exit-2 Exit-2
1991 1228 1168 1337 1419 1833 3081 2219 151% 164% 130% 117% 68% 81% 90% 66% 56% 21%
1996 3492 3310 3796 4067 3712 4025 3153 15% 22% 6% -1% 8% -10% -5% -17% -22% -15%
1998 3616 3380 3798 4118 3311 3743 5302 4% 11% -1% -9% 13% 47% 57% 40% 29% 60%
1999 4679 4558 5031 4639 5926 3836 2943 -18% -16% -24% -17% -35% -37% -35% -42% -37% -50%
2004 5823 5740 4505 4839 5102 6466 12217 11% 13% 44% 34% 27% 110% 113% 171% 152% 139%
2009 8607 9902 14284 14265 15035 16876 18086 96% 70% 18% 18% 12% 110% 83% 27% 27% 20%
2014 20852 22055 24121
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1947 to 1977: Policitical environment was simply dominated by Indian National Congress party. It
was just practically the ‘ONLY’ national party till then.
1947 to 1956: Perhaps Securities Market in general was not at all a serious or important matter in
this period and nothing has been done for that.
1956 / 57: First time ever something for Securities Market was done by enactment of Securities
Contracts (Regulation) Act 1956. Though Bombay Stock Exchange (Estd. 1875) was in existence for
more than 70 Years before this, it was only under this act got official recognition by the Govt.
Thereafter for very long period, until 1992 nothing was done at regulatory level.
1977 to 1979: In 1977, first national level rival to Indian Nation Congress was formed as ‘Janata
Party’, which was amalgamation of several smaller parties. IT was the first non-congress party
coming in power, though this was short lived (2 years) and later Janata Party disintegrated.
1980 to 1985: BJP at national level and some other strong regional parties in few states (BSP in Uttar
Pradesh, TDS in Andhra Pradesh) which have reduced the dominance of Congress Party
1986: SENSEX came in to existence
1986 to 1992: Loosely regulated (practically unregulated) Securities Market; this period ended with
the establishment of SEBI in 1992
Timeline (for “Elections, Politics & Markets”)
So, with the kind of past data we have, we will not be able to infer anything. Hence we tried to look at some
‘subjective’ information relevant to the markets so that we can try to use it in conjunction with election data.
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1990: Mr. TN Sheshan, who was Cabinet Secretary to Govt. of India lead by then Prime Minster Mr.
Chandra Shekar, was appointed as the Chief Election Commissioner of India. Wondering how this is
relevant? He was the first CEC of India who showed the real power of Election Commission and
started the golden era of fair elections. It is interesting to note that ever since then, Indian National
Congress’s ‘monopolistic’, sweeping election victory phenomena ended and sadly, perhaps as a
‘side effect’, Coalition Politics era has started.
1991 to 1996: First long lived Govt lead (or controlled) by non-Nehru family leader – Mr. PV
Narasimha Rao. This was the Golden Era of Indian Economy and perhaps economy has first time
experienced the ‘Good Times’ (“Ache Din”). Economy was opened up and India received the sea of
opportunities which changed the lives of companies and people alike. Be reminded even SEBI Act
(1992) came during this regime.
1992: SEBI Established
1999: Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) were deployed first time ever in Indian Elections and it
continued thereafter. This is another milestone in the direction of fair elections.
1993 – to present: Securities Markets matured very fast and lot of changes, improvements and
regulations under SEBI; result is more transparent and organized and overall much better market
than prior to 1992
Timeline Continued…
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Remarks & Conclusion:
• Regulatory framework and securities market are still very young, yet have
gathered enough experience by now.
• In fact, very clearly, we don’t have the time periods or parallels or similar
circumstances in the past we can compare with. The data and statistics being
created and documented now will be of good use in future to refer back.
• The period for which we have ‘somewhat’ useful data belongs to the period of
unstable, dependent Govt’.
• Country has seen growth and prosperity whenever the control of the Govt was in
the hands of leadership having inclination towards development and
liberalization rather than in the periods leadership of populist and traditional
thought process.
• Never before this in the Indian history so far, a development and business friendly
leadership has ever had so much power of independence awarded by people of
India.
• Journey of stock markets has just started and very long way to go! For sure this
journey, like any other, will be full of up’s and down’s. Some time in future we
should be able to predict (estimate) the election and political influence on
markets, in a better way than we can do now.
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Making Money More Productive
It is said history repeats itself.
But we don’t have enough history now which we
may look forward to repeat!
History is being created now!!
And fortunately as somewhat ‘sensed’ in this study
and other indicators, it is going to be good part of
the history.
Want to be part of it?!
Can you afford to stay out of it and study about it later?