In light of the blizzard that is about to impact the northeastern part of the US, the Yale-Tulane ESF-8 Planning and Response Program has produced this special report. The report was compiled entirely from open source materials. Please feel free to forward the report to anyone who might be interested.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin until 2 AM on Thursday. Damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes are likely with these severe storms. The watch zone includes the northeastern half of the Twin Cities metro area. The National Weather Service has designated this as a "particularly dangerous situation" due to the potential for widespread damaging winds, including isolated gusts up to 90 mph, and scattered large hail.
Inclement weather, heavy rain and flash flooding possible Sept. 29-30. the latest information from the National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5day?large#contents
Cyclone Pam was a Category 5 cyclone that made landfall in Vanuatu in March 2015. It produced winds up to 165 mph and storm surges of around 2 feet. The cyclone severely damaged the capital city of Port Vila and was one of the worst natural disasters in the island nation's history. Over 100,000 people were affected, with 11 direct deaths reported and 4 indirect deaths. Preparation, survival tactics like sheltering in place, and recovery strategies are key lessons from cyclones like Pam.
Typhoons regularly hit the Philippines between June and November, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall that cause flooding and destruction of crops, houses, and property. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) monitors weather during typhoon season and issues typhoon signal warnings starting at 36 hours before expected arrival to alert the public and help them prepare as wind speeds and impacts increase. Signal number 4 is issued within 12 hours of a very strong typhoon with winds over 185 km/h, when all schools close and people are advised to stay in safe areas.
The document provides an overview of Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) that hit the Philippines in September 2009, including its chronology, effects, damages, field interviews, and lessons learned. It describes how over 40 inches of rain fell in just 6 hours, overwhelming Manila and surrounding areas with the worst flooding in decades. Nearly 5 million people were affected, with estimated damages of $11 billion. Interviews found that while warnings were issued, no one expected floods of this magnitude, and evacuation efforts were hampered by the rapid onset of flooding.
"New England Tornado Hazard: Climatology and Risk" by MD StamponeMary Stampone
Mary D. Stampone
Department of Geography
New Hampshire State Climate Office
University of New Hampshire
Presentation to the Plymouth State University
Environmental Science & Policy Colloquium.
Reference:
Stampone M.D. (2012) New England Tornado Hazard: Climatology and Risk – Plymouth State University Environmental Science Colloquium, Plymouth, NH, September 19, 2012
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be above normal. Factors influencing this forecast include an ongoing multi-decadal signal favoring hurricane development, the potential development of a La Niña system over the summer, and record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Specifically, forecasters predict 18-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes, with an 85% probability of an above-normal season.
In light of the blizzard that is about to impact the northeastern part of the US, the Yale-Tulane ESF-8 Planning and Response Program has produced this special report. The report was compiled entirely from open source materials. Please feel free to forward the report to anyone who might be interested.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin until 2 AM on Thursday. Damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes are likely with these severe storms. The watch zone includes the northeastern half of the Twin Cities metro area. The National Weather Service has designated this as a "particularly dangerous situation" due to the potential for widespread damaging winds, including isolated gusts up to 90 mph, and scattered large hail.
Inclement weather, heavy rain and flash flooding possible Sept. 29-30. the latest information from the National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5day?large#contents
Cyclone Pam was a Category 5 cyclone that made landfall in Vanuatu in March 2015. It produced winds up to 165 mph and storm surges of around 2 feet. The cyclone severely damaged the capital city of Port Vila and was one of the worst natural disasters in the island nation's history. Over 100,000 people were affected, with 11 direct deaths reported and 4 indirect deaths. Preparation, survival tactics like sheltering in place, and recovery strategies are key lessons from cyclones like Pam.
Typhoons regularly hit the Philippines between June and November, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall that cause flooding and destruction of crops, houses, and property. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) monitors weather during typhoon season and issues typhoon signal warnings starting at 36 hours before expected arrival to alert the public and help them prepare as wind speeds and impacts increase. Signal number 4 is issued within 12 hours of a very strong typhoon with winds over 185 km/h, when all schools close and people are advised to stay in safe areas.
The document provides an overview of Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) that hit the Philippines in September 2009, including its chronology, effects, damages, field interviews, and lessons learned. It describes how over 40 inches of rain fell in just 6 hours, overwhelming Manila and surrounding areas with the worst flooding in decades. Nearly 5 million people were affected, with estimated damages of $11 billion. Interviews found that while warnings were issued, no one expected floods of this magnitude, and evacuation efforts were hampered by the rapid onset of flooding.
"New England Tornado Hazard: Climatology and Risk" by MD StamponeMary Stampone
Mary D. Stampone
Department of Geography
New Hampshire State Climate Office
University of New Hampshire
Presentation to the Plymouth State University
Environmental Science & Policy Colloquium.
Reference:
Stampone M.D. (2012) New England Tornado Hazard: Climatology and Risk – Plymouth State University Environmental Science Colloquium, Plymouth, NH, September 19, 2012
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be above normal. Factors influencing this forecast include an ongoing multi-decadal signal favoring hurricane development, the potential development of a La Niña system over the summer, and record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Specifically, forecasters predict 18-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes, with an 85% probability of an above-normal season.
Atlantic Tropical Depression BILL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6miaminewshour
This document provides wind speed probabilities for Tropical Depression Bill as of 9:00 UTC on June 17, 2015. It gives the location of the depression's center as 31.0N, 97.1W with maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (35 mph, 55 kph). The document then provides tables of probabilities of sustained wind speeds of 34 knots, 50 knots and 64 knots for specific locations over the next 5 days.
Atlantic Tropical Depression BILL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6miaminewshour
This document provides wind speed probabilities for Tropical Depression Bill as of 9:00 UTC on June 17, 2015. It gives the location of the depression's center as 31.0N, 97.1W with maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (35 mph, 55 kph). The document then provides tables of probabilities of sustained wind speeds of 34 knots, 50 knots and 64 knots for specific locations over the next 5 days.
Eastern Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Discussion Number 26
Eastern Pacific Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
1. Eastern Pacific Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011455
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015
For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Two tropical cyclones formed in the basin in May, Hurricane Andres,
which became a major hurricane, and Tropical Depression Two-E,
which has since become Tropical Storm Blanca. On average, a named
storm forms in the basin in May about once every other year, with a
hurricane forming about once every four years. Major hurricanes are
relatively rare in the basin in May. Andres is only the fifth major
2. hurricane to form in May in the eastern North Pacific since reliable
records began in 1971.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015basin=epac.
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH Andres 28 May- 125
TD Two-E 31 May- 35
---------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit