On June 23rd 2016, the British people will vote in a referendum on whether they wish for
the United Kingdom to remain in or leave the European Union. A vote to ‘leave’ would be
a major geopolitical event, but what would Britain's EU exit (or 'Brexit') mean for industry
in the UK, continental Europe and the rest of the world? Eric Payne reports on
foreseeable post-exit scenarios.
'Brexit' –VAT & Customs implications for international supply chainsAlex Baulf
Now that the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union (EU), it is clear that the exit will require a fundamental review of how indirect tax (including VAT & customs duty) will operate going forward. We set out Grant Thornton's thinking about what the post-Brexit world might look like for global supply chains. Much will depend on whether we agree a 'Soft Brexit' (retaining some level of access to the Single Market) or a 'Hard Brexit' (No favoured access).
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union. Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote and a few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister
The process of Brexit has begun although the timing of the decision to invoke Article 50 of the EU treaty remains uncertain
Once Article 50 is invoked, there is a maximum period of two years before the UK finally leaves the EU. The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU also remain uncertain.
CBR: the EU test case for ruling requests
Several EU Member States have decided to start a test case with regard to the ruling policy, in cross-border situations (CBR).
EU Member States have eventually gotten a deal regarding common procedures in tax rulings. It is a test case, officially started on 1 June 2013 and expected to continue until 30 September 2018, that aims to receive requests and questions from taxable persons and companies involved in cross-border transactions.
Last year provided important decisions and evolution of competition law on key topics for Norway. On public enforcement the European Commission adopted recently (in 2018) a decision in the largest ongoing cartel case addressing Norwegian companies in the Maritime Car Carriers Case and the EFTA Surveillance Authority has launched an investigation in the largest ongoing antitrust case involving a Norwegian business sector in the so-called e-payment case related to the financial sector. The evolution of private enforcement in Norway is unhurriedly moving along, with one key case being the Henrik Kristoffersen case recently litigated in the EFTA Court. Grette is proud to recognize that our services have been retained in all these cases.
'Brexit' –VAT & Customs implications for international supply chainsAlex Baulf
Now that the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union (EU), it is clear that the exit will require a fundamental review of how indirect tax (including VAT & customs duty) will operate going forward. We set out Grant Thornton's thinking about what the post-Brexit world might look like for global supply chains. Much will depend on whether we agree a 'Soft Brexit' (retaining some level of access to the Single Market) or a 'Hard Brexit' (No favoured access).
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union. Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote and a few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister
The process of Brexit has begun although the timing of the decision to invoke Article 50 of the EU treaty remains uncertain
Once Article 50 is invoked, there is a maximum period of two years before the UK finally leaves the EU. The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU also remain uncertain.
CBR: the EU test case for ruling requests
Several EU Member States have decided to start a test case with regard to the ruling policy, in cross-border situations (CBR).
EU Member States have eventually gotten a deal regarding common procedures in tax rulings. It is a test case, officially started on 1 June 2013 and expected to continue until 30 September 2018, that aims to receive requests and questions from taxable persons and companies involved in cross-border transactions.
Last year provided important decisions and evolution of competition law on key topics for Norway. On public enforcement the European Commission adopted recently (in 2018) a decision in the largest ongoing cartel case addressing Norwegian companies in the Maritime Car Carriers Case and the EFTA Surveillance Authority has launched an investigation in the largest ongoing antitrust case involving a Norwegian business sector in the so-called e-payment case related to the financial sector. The evolution of private enforcement in Norway is unhurriedly moving along, with one key case being the Henrik Kristoffersen case recently litigated in the EFTA Court. Grette is proud to recognize that our services have been retained in all these cases.
Polish Tech Day 2017 - Baker & McKenzie "The 'New Normal' | Brexit, (More) Un...PLUG - Polish Tech Link
An introduction to the matters of Brexit from the legal perspective by Phelim O'Doherty from Baker & McKenzie. Delivered at the Polish Tech Day 2017.
Polish Tech Day is an annual conference in London dedicated to fostering mutual relationships between Poland and the UK in the technology sector. Please visit polishtechday.com for more.
On December 16th, 2011, an 18 year long negotiation process regarding Russia’s WTO membership was finally brought to an end. Undoubtedly, Russia’s WTO accession is an important event both for the global trade system and for the country. With Russia now in the club, the WTO will control over 97 per cent of global trade.
Authored by: Irina Tochitskaya
What if...? The Consequences, challenges & opportunities facing Britain outsi...chmcorpp
E se...? As consequências , desafios e oportunidades que a Grã-Bretanha enfrentará fora da UE
Neste estudo, olharam principalmente o impacto econômico se a Grã-Bretanha deixar a UE. No entanto, dado que Brexit se resume em cálculos, as considerações não quantificáveis , tais como: perda de soberania e responsabilidade democrática podem ser o que determina se a Grã-Bretanha continua ou não a ser um membro da União Europeia.
In this study, we look primarily at the economic impact of Britain leaving the EU. However, given that Brexit comes down to a finely balanced calculation, unquantifiable considerations such as lost sovereignty and democratic accountability may be what in the end determines whether Britain remains a member.
More economic approach to exclusivity agreements: how does it work in practic...Michal
No other topic draws as much attention in competition law as the need for an
economic approach1 and yet, it is still a ‘deficit’ approach. Authorities enforcing
competition protection rules are still very attached to the formalistic approach and
this is an affliction not only of the Polish but also of the EU authorities and courts2
Agata Jurkowska-Gomułka (ed.), Orzecznictwo sądów wspólnotowych w sprawach ko...Michal
The publication under review here edited by Dr. Agata Jurkowska–Gomułka from
the University of Warsaw (Centre for Antitrust and Regulatory Studies) is a collection of
case studies concerning European competition law prepared by a number of individual
authors both academics and practitioners. As a presentation of landmark judgments
of EU courts, it is a continuation of the 2007 publication entitled: Jurisprudence of
the European Community Courts in competition matters in years 1964- 2004 edited
by Professor Tadeusz Skoczny and Dr. Agata Jurkowska (hereafter, Volume I). The
current book (hereinafter, Volume II), commences with 1 May 2004 – an important
date for this publication for two key reasons: first, because of its correlation with
Poland’s EU accession and second, because of its correlation with the entry into force
of Regulation 1/2003. However, the presented judgments do not refer to Regulation
1/2003 primarily due to the lengthy nature of judicial proceedings. There was thus
no chance, before the publication of Volume II, to discuss any jurisprudence based
on this act.
Euro shorts 16.12.16 including Brexit: European Parliament briefing and Brexi...Cummings
Welcome to Euro Shorts, a short briefing on some of the week’s developments in the financial services industry in Europe.
If you would like to discuss any of the points we raise below, please contact me or one of our other lawyers.
EU-VIETNAM FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AND INVESTMENT PROTECTION AGREEMENT – MOST LI...Dr. Oliver Massmann
EU-VIETNAM FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AND INVESTMENT PROTECTION AGREEMENT – MOST LIBERALIZED MARKET ACCESS FOR SERVICE SECTORS AND UNMATCHED LEGAL CERTAINTY - LATEST UPDATE – WHAT YOU MUST KNOW:
Polish Antitrust Legislation and Case Law Review 2010Michal
The article presents key developments in Polish antitrust legislation and case law
of 2010. Regarding legislation, the article focuses on a new group exemption for
agreements on motor vehicle distribution; also provided is a general characterisation
of antitrust jurisprudence, mainly the judgments of the Supreme Court and the
Court of Appeals in Warsaw. The presented rulings are divided according to their
subject matter referring to particular types of restrictive practices, relevant market
definition, relationships between the Competition Act and other national legislation
as well as problems related to the UOKiK President’s decision-making process and
juridical control of antitrust decisions.
A definitive guide to the brexit negotiations, By Sadaf AlidadSadaf Alidad
A look into “A Definitive Guide to the Brexit Negotiations” in Harvard Business Review, By Sadaf Alidad, MBA student of Alzahra University of Tehran (class assignment)
Polish Tech Day 2017 - Baker & McKenzie "The 'New Normal' | Brexit, (More) Un...PLUG - Polish Tech Link
An introduction to the matters of Brexit from the legal perspective by Phelim O'Doherty from Baker & McKenzie. Delivered at the Polish Tech Day 2017.
Polish Tech Day is an annual conference in London dedicated to fostering mutual relationships between Poland and the UK in the technology sector. Please visit polishtechday.com for more.
On December 16th, 2011, an 18 year long negotiation process regarding Russia’s WTO membership was finally brought to an end. Undoubtedly, Russia’s WTO accession is an important event both for the global trade system and for the country. With Russia now in the club, the WTO will control over 97 per cent of global trade.
Authored by: Irina Tochitskaya
What if...? The Consequences, challenges & opportunities facing Britain outsi...chmcorpp
E se...? As consequências , desafios e oportunidades que a Grã-Bretanha enfrentará fora da UE
Neste estudo, olharam principalmente o impacto econômico se a Grã-Bretanha deixar a UE. No entanto, dado que Brexit se resume em cálculos, as considerações não quantificáveis , tais como: perda de soberania e responsabilidade democrática podem ser o que determina se a Grã-Bretanha continua ou não a ser um membro da União Europeia.
In this study, we look primarily at the economic impact of Britain leaving the EU. However, given that Brexit comes down to a finely balanced calculation, unquantifiable considerations such as lost sovereignty and democratic accountability may be what in the end determines whether Britain remains a member.
More economic approach to exclusivity agreements: how does it work in practic...Michal
No other topic draws as much attention in competition law as the need for an
economic approach1 and yet, it is still a ‘deficit’ approach. Authorities enforcing
competition protection rules are still very attached to the formalistic approach and
this is an affliction not only of the Polish but also of the EU authorities and courts2
Agata Jurkowska-Gomułka (ed.), Orzecznictwo sądów wspólnotowych w sprawach ko...Michal
The publication under review here edited by Dr. Agata Jurkowska–Gomułka from
the University of Warsaw (Centre for Antitrust and Regulatory Studies) is a collection of
case studies concerning European competition law prepared by a number of individual
authors both academics and practitioners. As a presentation of landmark judgments
of EU courts, it is a continuation of the 2007 publication entitled: Jurisprudence of
the European Community Courts in competition matters in years 1964- 2004 edited
by Professor Tadeusz Skoczny and Dr. Agata Jurkowska (hereafter, Volume I). The
current book (hereinafter, Volume II), commences with 1 May 2004 – an important
date for this publication for two key reasons: first, because of its correlation with
Poland’s EU accession and second, because of its correlation with the entry into force
of Regulation 1/2003. However, the presented judgments do not refer to Regulation
1/2003 primarily due to the lengthy nature of judicial proceedings. There was thus
no chance, before the publication of Volume II, to discuss any jurisprudence based
on this act.
Euro shorts 16.12.16 including Brexit: European Parliament briefing and Brexi...Cummings
Welcome to Euro Shorts, a short briefing on some of the week’s developments in the financial services industry in Europe.
If you would like to discuss any of the points we raise below, please contact me or one of our other lawyers.
EU-VIETNAM FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AND INVESTMENT PROTECTION AGREEMENT – MOST LI...Dr. Oliver Massmann
EU-VIETNAM FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AND INVESTMENT PROTECTION AGREEMENT – MOST LIBERALIZED MARKET ACCESS FOR SERVICE SECTORS AND UNMATCHED LEGAL CERTAINTY - LATEST UPDATE – WHAT YOU MUST KNOW:
Polish Antitrust Legislation and Case Law Review 2010Michal
The article presents key developments in Polish antitrust legislation and case law
of 2010. Regarding legislation, the article focuses on a new group exemption for
agreements on motor vehicle distribution; also provided is a general characterisation
of antitrust jurisprudence, mainly the judgments of the Supreme Court and the
Court of Appeals in Warsaw. The presented rulings are divided according to their
subject matter referring to particular types of restrictive practices, relevant market
definition, relationships between the Competition Act and other national legislation
as well as problems related to the UOKiK President’s decision-making process and
juridical control of antitrust decisions.
A definitive guide to the brexit negotiations, By Sadaf AlidadSadaf Alidad
A look into “A Definitive Guide to the Brexit Negotiations” in Harvard Business Review, By Sadaf Alidad, MBA student of Alzahra University of Tehran (class assignment)
Ivo Pezzuto - "BREXIT" - THE GLOBAL ANALYST - MARCH 2016 Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
In this article, Dr. Ivo Pezzuto analyzes the politcal, eocnomic, and social consequences of a potential "Brexit" scenario following Britain's referendum of June 23rd, 2016.
Brexit : implications for rolling stock procurement and financingGraeme McLellan
Article considering some implications of Brexit with particular reference to rail rolling stock procurement, leasing and financing. Includes consideration of WTO rules in the absence of a negotiated trade agreement between the UK and the EU.
Brexit: The customs impact on UK businessesAlex Baulf
Following the referendum vote on 23 June 2016, the UK has voted to leave the EU. Exactly when this will happen and how is not yet known. In the coming months, the UK will be expected to submit its withdrawal notice to the EU Council -under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) -to formally notify the EU of its withdrawal. The notification will trigger a two-year notice period and negotiations on the terms of a UK exit will begin. Until then, UK businesses should continue to comply with and trade under the existing Union Customs Code (UCC) that entered into force on 1 May 2016.
Assuming that 'Brexit' does eventually happen, businesses need to:
• assess the risks and opportunities that this poses for their supply chain
• where possible, put in place plans to manage these changes, to ensure their activities run smoothly and mitigate the potential impact, and
• take appropriate steps to prepare for the ‘unknown’.
Unless there is a dramatic 'U' turn, it seems clear that, at some point in the future, the UK will leave the EU. From a UK business perspective such a move will not only present many challenges, but will also provide opportunities.
The vote to leave will continue to create considerable uncertainty until the details of any agreement(s) are known. Businesses affected by Brexit will need to plan for that uncertainty and will need to understand the potential impacts. For this reason, a supply chain impact assessment is prudent and should help to provide some clarity in relation to a business’s exposure.
The idea of creating a guide to the possible implications of Brexit came into being before the date for the Brexit referendum was set and the referendum campaign had begun. Now that the countdown to the June 23 vote is well underway, this has become a much more topical and current issue for everyone in the UK and I think that many more UK businesses are now engaged in active study and planning for Brexit scenarios.
From energy to financial services and the digital world, in this issue of Insights Brussels - a regular update on key EU policy developments our public affairs experts provide an update on the most relevant legislative initiatives in the pipeline. We remain available to support organisations in understanding and navigating the Brussels arena and the interplay with relevant national policy landscapes.
For real-time updates, follow @MSL_Brussels or reach out to us on Twitter @msl_group.
ECB: uitstap uit euro moeilijk maar mogelijkThierry Debels
Over een mogelijke uitstap van Griekenland uit de euro wordt veel onzin verteld. Velen menen (onterecht) dat dit niet mogelijk is. Volgens de ECB is het een moeilijke oefening, maar niet onmogelijk.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...
Eai 04 16_special report_brexit
1. BREXIT IMPACTS
20 | EUROASIA INDUSTRY
specialreport
special
report
Trends
in Trade
On June 23rd 2016, the British people will vote in a referendum on whether they wish for
the United Kingdom to remain in or leave the European Union. A vote to ‘leave’ would be
a major geopolitical event, but what would Britain's EU exit (or 'Brexit') mean for industry
in the UK, continental Europe and the rest of the world? Eric Payne reports on
foreseeable post-exit scenarios.
The UK voting to ‘leave’ the EU is broadly
associated with uncertainty and risk. The
governor of the Bank of England, Mark
Carney, says that a vote to ‘leave’ could
expose the UK to “material slowdown in
growth”. The perception in the City is such
that traders may well make that outcome a
short-term reality. By contrast, it is generally
perceived that remaining in the EU means
endorsing a static status quo.
Before discussing Brexit, therefore, it is
important to acknowledge that the UK voting
to ‘remain’ in the EU is not without uncer-
tainty or risk. The EU's 'Five President's
Report' lays out a timetable for the comple-
tion of economic and monetary union (EMU)
by 2025. European Commission President,
Jean-Claude Junker, has announced that he
will present a White Paper on the subject of
EMU in June 2017.
What further consolidation of the
Eurozone would mean for the UK, with its
euro opt-out and equivocal attitude towards
the EU institution's ongoing commitment to
political union, is not yet clear. The “special
status” that Prime Minister David Cameron
says he has negotiated with the other EU
Member States raises yet more questions.
What really interests and intrigues people,
however, are the possible Brexit scenarios.
Political realities
Broadly speaking, there three immediate
post-exit options for the UK: the WTO option,
the ‘Swiss’ or bilaterals option, and the
‘Norway’ or EFTA/EEA option. Before looking
at each of these, it must be noted that what
the UK government would be able to nego-
tiate with its EU counterparts would be con-
strained by political realities, which, to be
frank, are not well understood.
The first and foremost political reality
is the fact that the only legally constituted
means for an EU Member State to leave
the EU is via Article 50 of the Treaty on
European Union (TEU). Moreover, Article
50 guarantees only two years to negotiate
an exit agreement. The negotiating period
can be extended, but the decision to do so
requires unanimous agreement among the
remaining EU Member States and, according
to a UK Government Command Paper, such
an extension would be likely to come at a
price. The paper says: “Article 50 provides
for a two-year negotiation, which can only
be extended by unanimity. There could be
a trade-off between speed and ambition. An
extension request would provide opportu-
nities for any Member State to try to extract
a concession from the UK.”
Thereby do we begin to limit the ‘plausi-
bility scope’ for the negotiation. Indeed, with
a two-year deadline in mind, the idea of
agreeing a comprehensive free trade agree-
ment (FTA) is a total non-starter. The EU-
Canadian Comprehensive Economic & Trade
Agreement (CETA) has taken seven years to
negotiate and is not yet ratified. Likewise,
the Transatlantic Trade & Investment
Partnership (TTIP) is three years in the
making and nowhere close to completion.
There is not one FTA listed on the EU Treaty
Database that took less than three years to
complete negotiation and ratification.
Some of those in the ‘leave’ camp sug-
gest that, in lieu of an FTA, the UK could
resort to trading with the EU under WTO
rules. That would be a disaster for UK-EU
trade. Under WTO rules, the EU is cate-
gorised as a Regional Trade Agreement
(RTA) which, the WTO acknowledges, “by
their very nature are discriminatory”. As
such, RTAs are permitted to discriminate
against third-countries, which, were the UK
to leave the EU without a replacement
trade deal, would include the UK.
The outstanding issue under those
circumstances, would not be tariffs, but
non-tariff barriers (NTBs), or what are
otherwise known as technical barriers to
trade (TBT). Without mutual recognition
of conformity assessment and an ongoing
commitment to regulatory convergence,
UK exporters selling into the EU market
would have no way to demonstrate con-
formity to EU standards. It is not suffi-
cient to conform, exporters must be able
to demonstrate conformity.
What that would mean in practice is cus-
toms inspectors having to detain shipments
and taking samples to send to an approved
testing house. The cost of that would be
paid by UK exporters, but the associated
delays would be even more damaging.
Highly integrated European supply lines,
relying upon components shipped from
multiple countries under a 'just-in-time'
regime, would be very badly impacted.
Writing on his personal blog,
EUReferendum.com, political analyst,
researcher and anti-EU campaigner, Dr
Richard North, asserts: “Then, as European
ports start having to deal with the unex-
pected burden of thousands of inspections,
and a backlog of testing as a huge range of
products sit at the ports awaiting results,
the system will grind to a halt. It won't just
slow down. It will stop. Trucks waiting to
cross the Channel at Dover will be backed
up the motorway all the way to London.”
A pragmatic compromise
Obviously it would be in the best interests
of all concerned to avoid such a catastrophic
outcome. So, what then is the alternative?
Fortunately, there is one, although it would
require a degree of political compromise.
In short, the most realistic exit option
involves the UK maintaining regulatory con-
tinuity by applying to rejoin the European
Free Trade Association (EFTA) to participate
in the European Economic Area (EEA)
agreement. The EEA is the 31-member state
area that forms the Single Market, made up
of the EU 28, plus three of the EFTA mem-
bers – Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
Switzerland is a member of EFTA, but has a
separate set of bilateral agreements for man-
aging EU trade and participation in co-oper-
ative ventures.
This pragmatic acceptance of an 'off-the-
shelf' solution with respect to trade would
protect jobs and investment while also ful-
filling on the referendum outcome of taking
Britain out of the political and judicial
arrangements of the supranational EU.
That would mean no immediate change to
freedom of movement – the free movement
of goods, services, capital and people being
central to the Single Market – to the chagrin
of some ‘leave’ campaigners. However, as
Roland Smith of the Adam Smith Institute
argues, it is useful to conceive of Brexit as
an “evolutionary process” rather than as a
“one-time event”.
“In contrast to other exit plans that seek
varying degrees of cut-off from the EU,” he
remarks, in a report titled ‘Revolution Not
Evolution: The Case For the EEA Option’.
“The EEA option starts from a very liberal,
co-operative agenda that is practical and
realistic, and evolves the UK away from EU
‡
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22 | EUROASIA INDUSTRY
membership. This will be the first step of an
ongoing evolutionary process that ultimately
promises the start of a reinvigoration and re-
maturing of Britain’s wilting democracy that
is increasingly and worryingly held in con-
tempt by many voters. And all the while,
maintaining the very open trade and free
exchange we have with our nearest neigh-
bours and friends.”
An international model
To appreciate the potential upside of EU exit
in terms of trade, it is first of all important to
understand that trade is an exclusive EU
competency. EU Member States do not have
the power to make independent trade agree-
ments and are obliged to adopt the EU's
‘common position’ on global bodies such as
the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The sig-
nificance of this is revealed when one rolls
back the curtain on the hundreds of stan-
dard-setting bodies operating at the global
level. Organisations such as the United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe
(UNECE) and the Codex Alimentarius
Commission, where participating member
states agree food hygiene and safety stan-
dards, are in the process of transforming the
EU from a law-maker into a law-taker.
In days gone by, it was legitimate to think
of EU membership as giving the UK a seat
at the 'top table' when it came to making
rules for the Single Market. Today, that is no
longer the case. Indeed, one of the biggest
misconceptions associated with the EEA
option is that it would mean complying with
EU legislation with ‘no say’ over the rules.
In fact, more than 80 per cent of the leg-
islative categories defined in the Single
Market or EEA acquis (body of law) – as dis-
tinct from the EU acquis – fall within the
scope of international organisations.
This apparently minor administrative
detail is extremely significant in the context
of Article 2.4 of the WTO Agreement on
Technical Barriers to Trade, which says that,
“Where technical regulations are required
and relevant international standards exist or
their completion is imminent, Members
shall use them, or the relevant parts of
them, as a basis for their technical regula-
tions”. That little word “shall” transforms
the relationship between global bodies and
the EU, placing independent nation-states
at the forefront of the regulatory agenda. In
other words, the EU, if it ever was, is no
longer the regulatory ‘top table’.
In the area of vehicle regulation, for
instance, the standards to which equip-
ment manufacturers work are defined not
by the EU but by the World Forum for
Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations
(WP.29) – a working party of the Inland
Transport Division of UNECE. There are
currently 57 signatories, including the EU.
Non-EU countries include major vehicle
manufacturing countries such as Japan
and South Korea. Outside of the EU, the
UK government would have full self-repre-
sentation and the freedom to deal direct at
the global level.
UNECE, which was established in 1947,
prior to the foundation of even the European
Coal and Steel Community, which evolved
into the present day EU, is also at the cutting
edge of developing an ‘International Model’
of regulation, through its WP.6 (Working
Party on Regulatory Co-operation and
Standardisation Policies). The ‘model’ pro-
vides a set of voluntary principles and proce-
dures for countries wishing to harmonise
technical regulations, bringing interested
countries together to discuss and agree new
regulatory frameworks that are then turned
into Common Regulatory Objectives (CROs).
Notable successes include CROs for
PC peripherals, legacy Public Switched
Telephone Network (PSTN) terminals;
Bluetooth, Wireless Local Area Network
(WLAN); Global Standard for Mobile
Telecommunication (GSM); and
International Mobile Telecommunications
(IMT-2000 or 3G). That is in addition to
CROs for earth-moving machinery and
equipment for explosive environments.
The process is nascent but extant,
offering a viable model for a liberal, global-
minded, free-trading country like the UK to
reinvigorate the multilateral trading system,
working to reduce technical barriers to trade
under the aegis of the UNECE and WTO.
A viable role for an independent Britain?
Returning to the politics, the ‘national
debate’ as conducted among the publicly-
funded campaigns is regrettably – although
perhaps not unexpectedly – short on facts
and perspective. There are viable alternatives
to EU membership. However, the UK would
have to accept a compromise – especially in
the initial phase. The remaining EU Member
States would not offer the UK a ‘better deal’.
As John Springford and Simon Tilford of
the Centre for European Reform, writing
in The Daily Telegraph, affirm: “Germany
and France will say: ‘it’s all or nothing’.
Join the European Economic Area, or no
deal.” Experts for the ‘leave’ side agree.
However, the advantages to be derived
from driving the regulatory agenda at a
global level, championing the multilateral
trading system and intergovernmental co-
operation, would provide a viable role
for an independent Britain. o
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Trends
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