Demographic trends and population projections for the North Texas region.

1. Demographic trends and population projections for
the North Texas region
2021 Heart of North Texas Conference
November 5, 2021
1

2. Population Growth and Congressional Seat Change
2010
Population
2020
Population
Numeric
Change
2010‐2020
Percent
Change
2010‐2020
Congressional
Seat Change
United States 308,745,538 331,449,281 22,703,743 7.4%
Texas 25,145,561 29,145,505 3,999,944 15.9% 2
Florida 18,801,310 21,538,187 2,736,877 14.6% 1
North Carolina 9,535,483 10,439,388 903,905 9.5% 1
Colorado 5,029,196 5,773,714 744,518 14.8% 1
Oregon 3,831,074 4,237,256 406,182 10.6% 1
Montana 989,415 1,084,225 94,810 9.6% 1
California 37,253,956 39,538,223 2,284,267 6.1% ‐1
New York 19,378,102 20,201,249 823,147 4.2% ‐1
Pennsylvania 12,702,379 13,002,700 300,321 2.4% ‐1
Ohio 11,536,504 11,799,448 262,944 2.3% ‐1
Michigan 9,883,640 10,077,331 193,691 2.0% ‐1
Illinois 12,830,632 12,812,508 ‐18,124 ‐0.1% ‐1
West Virginia 1,852,994 1,793,716 ‐59,278 ‐3.2% ‐1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 and 2020 Census Count 2

3. 3
Numeric Change, Texas Counties, 2010‐2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94‐171 Redistricting Files
143 counties lost population

4. 4
Numeric Change, Texas Places, 2010‐2020

5. 5
45.3%
11.5%
37.6%
3.8% 1.8%
2010
NH White
NH Black
Hispanic
NH Asian
NH Other
39.7%
11.8%
39.3%
5.4%
3.8%
2020
Percent distribution of race/ethnic groups in Texas, 2010 and 2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94‐171 Redistricting Files

6. 6
45.3%
57.6%
28.3%
55.1%
29.5%
19.6%
40.8%
15.5%
17.9%
11.0%
23.6%
10.9%
5.8%
9.7%
6.7%
16.3%
3.8% 3.6% 3.2% 3.6%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Tarrant Denton Dallas Collin
White, not Hispanic Hispanic or Latino Black or African American Asian Other
Percent race/ethnic composition Tarrant, Denton, Dallas and Collin Counties, and
Texas, 2019
Source: US Census Bureau 2019 Population Estimates

7. 7
Population Total NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
2010 25,145,561 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 948,426 452,044
2020 29,145,505 11,584,597 3,444,712 11,441,717 1,561,518 1,112,961
Numeric
Change 3,999,944 187,252 557,887 1,980,796 613,092 660,917
Percent
Change of Group 15.9% 1.6% 19.3% 20.9% 64.6% 146.2%
Percent Contribution
to Total Change
10‐20 4.7% 13.9% 49.5% 15.3% 16.5%
Percent of the Total
Population
2020 100% 39.7% 11.8% 39.3% 5.4% 3.8%
Population and population change for the total and race/ethnic groups, Texas, 2010‐2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94‐171 Redistricting Files

8. 8
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94‐171 Redistricting Files
198 counties lost NH white population
Numeric Change, Texas Counties, Non‐Hispanic White, 2010‐2020

9. 9
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94‐171 Redistricting Files
63 counties lost Hispanic population
Numeric Change, Texas Counties, Hispanic, 2010‐2020

10. 10
158 counties lost Black population
Numeric Change, Texas Counties, Non‐Hispanic Black, 2010‐2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94‐171 Redistricting Files

11. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 and 2020 Vintage Population Estimates 11

12. County
US
Rank
2020 Population
Estimate
Population
Change
2010‐2020
Percent of
Change from
Natural
Increase
Percent of
Change from
International
Migration
Percent of
Change from
Domestic
Migration
Harris 2 4,738,253 645,144 68.6% 44.1% ‐12.7%
Bexar 5 2,026,823 312,042 46.1% 14.1% 39.9%
Tarrant 6 2,123,347 312,002 50.1% 19.7% 30.1%
Collin 8 1,072,069 291,175 23.8% 16.8% 59.4%
Travis 9 1,300,503 276,189 38.4% 19.6% 42.0%
Dallas 11 2,635,888 267,732 88.4% 44.2% ‐32.6%
Denton 13 919,324 257,709 24.8% 8.9% 66.3%
Fort Bend 14 839,706 255,074 24.1% 19.1% 56.8%
Williamson 20 617,855 195,084 20.4% 5.6% 74.0%
Montgomery 23 626,351 170,611 20.4% 7.7% 71.9%
Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2010‐2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Evaluation Population Estimates 12

13. Top Counties for Percent Growth in Texas, 2010‐2020*
County US Rank
2020
Population
Estimate
Population
Change
2010‐2020
Percent
Population
Change
2010‐2020
Percent of
Population
Change from
Natural
Increase
Percent of
Population
Change from
International
Migration
Percent of
Population
Change from
Domestic
Migration
Hays 1 241,365 84,387 53.7% 16.7% 3.6% 79.7%
Comal 2 164,812 56,287 51.9% 5.9% 1.8% 92.3%
Williamson 6 617,855 195,084 46.2% 20.4% 5.6% 74.0%
Fort Bend 7 839,706 255,074 43.6% 24.1% 19.1% 56.8%
Rockwall 11 109,888 31,490 40.2% 14.9% 3.4% 81.7%
Denton 13 919,324 257,709 38.9% 24.8% 8.9% 66.3%
Kaufman 15 143,198 39,846 38.6% 17.3% 1.4% 81.2%
Montgomery 16 626,351 170,611 37.4% 20.4% 7.7% 71.9%
Collin 17 1,072,069 291,175 37.2% 23.8% 16.8% 59.4%
Waller 22 57,452 14,133 32.7% 22.7% 2.9% 74.4%
Midland 29 177,863 40,976 29.9% 42.6% 9.0% 48.3%
Guadalupe 31 170,608 39,086 29.7% 19.9% 2.1% 78.0%
Ellis 35 191,760 42,111 28.1% 21.8% 2.1% 76.1%
*Among counties with populations of 50,000 or more in 2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Evaluation Population Estimates 13

14. Estimated Natural Increase (Decrease), Texas Counties, 2010‐2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Population Estimates
86 counties had natural
decrease over the decade
(1/3 of Texas’ counties)
14

15. Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Population Estimates
Estimated Population Change from Domestic Migration, Texas Counties,
2010‐2020
More than half (134) of
counties had net out
domestic migration
15

16. Estimated International Migrants, Texas Counties, 2010‐2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Population Estimates
16

17. 17
(47,086)
(41,384)
(19,683)
(11,068)
(7,055)
(5,752)
(3,416)
26,650
26,771
26,834
27,616
28,014
28,332
29,022
33,296
35,839
53,318
57,980
73,917
91,109
96,790
302,978
(100,000) (50,000) ‐ 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Colorado
Oklahoma
Washington
Oregon
North Dakota
Montana
District of Columbia
Michigan
Kansas
Nevada
Mississippi
Virginia
Alaska
Arizona
Maryland
New Jersey
Louisiana
Puerto Rico
Florida
New York
Illinois
California
Estimated Net Domestic Migrants Between Texas and Other States, 2010‐2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State‐to‐State Migration Flows, 2010‐2019

18. Total Fertility Rate for Select States, 2008‐2018
2.59
2.36
2.08
1.88
2.15
1.77
2.03
1.87
1.73
1.67 1.63
1.45
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
Utah Texas Total United States New York California Massachusetts
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
18

19. 2010 2020
Generational Population Pyramids, Texas, 2010 and 2020
Source: US Census Bureau, 20209 Population Estimates

20. Texas White (non‐Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2019
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Population
Age
White (non‐Hispanic)
Hispanic
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Estimates
20

21. Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2007, 2017 and 2017‐2017
Change
9.3%
4.3% 4.3%
7.8%
3.8%
12.6%
10.4%
4.9%
5.5%
7.0%
3.4%
11.8%
1.0%
0.5%
1.2%
‐0.8%
‐0.4%
‐0.8%
Management occupations Business and financial
operations occupations
Healthcare practitioners
and technical occupations
Construction and
extraction occupations
Installation, maintenance,
and repair occupations
Production,
transportation, and
material moving
occupations
2007 2017 Change
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year Sample, 2007, 2017
21

22. 22
Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, and Tarrant, Denton, Dallas and
Collin Counties 2010, 2019 and 2019‐2010 Change
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Texas 2010 Texas 2019 Difference Tarrant
2010
Tarrant
2019
Difference Denton
2010
Denton
2019
Difference Dallas 2010 Dallas 2019 Difference Collin 2010 Collin 2019 Difference
Management, business, science, and arts occupations Service occupations
Sales and office occupations Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations

23. 8.8% 10.6%
5.6%
31.7% 30.0%
29.6%
13.2% 23.3%
28.4%
26.9%
35.9%
15.7%
31.7%
23.8%
24.7%
25.7%
60.6%
39.4%
16.1% 18.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Black Asian Non‐Hispanic
White
Hispanic All Other
Bachelor,
Graduate,
Professional
Degree
Some College or
Associate Degree
High School or
Equivelant
Less than High
School
Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas,
2019
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year Sample, 2019
39.9%
70.1 %
23

24. Percent of the Population Aged‐25 Years and Older with a Bachelor’s
Degree or Higher by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2007 and 2019
33.3%
18.0%
10.7%
52.8%
39.4%
25.7%
16.1%
60.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
White, NH Black Hispanic Asian
2007 2019
Source: US Census Bureau, ACS 1‐Year Estimates, 2007, 2019
6.1%
7.7%
5.4%
7.8%
Change in percent
24

25. Tarrant Denton Dallas Collin
Foreign born persons, percent, 2015‐2019 16.1% 15.5% 24.7% 21.1%
Language other than English spoken at home,
percent of persons age 5 years+, 2015‐2019
29.0% 23.5% 43.5% 28.7%
Median value of owner‐occupied housing
units, 2015‐2019
$188,500 $277,800 $174,900 $315,300
Median gross rent, 2015‐2019 $1,095 $1,218 $1,105 $1,389
Persons per household, 2015‐2019 2.86 2.83 2.78 2.84
Households with a broadband Internet
subscription, percent, 2015‐2019
86.9% 91.8% 81.1% 92.8%
Bachelor's degree or higher, percent of
persons age 25 years+, 2015‐2019
32.3% 45.1% 31.5% 52.30%
Mean travel time to work (minutes), workers
age 16 years+, 2015‐2019
27.4 29 27.7 28.9
Median household income (in 2019 dollars),
2015‐2019
$67,700 $86,913 $59,607 $96,913
Per capita income in past 12 months (in 2019
dollars), 2015‐2019
$33,292 $41,153 $32,653 $44,548
Persons in poverty, percent 10.2% 6.5% 14.0% 6.1%
Social and economic characteristics for Tarrant, Denton, Dallas and Collin Counties,
2015‐2019
25
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2015‐2019

26. Percent of housing stock by year built, Tarrant County area census tracts, 2015‐2019
Before 1970 1970‐1989
2010 and later
1990‐2009
26

27. Percent non‐Hispanic Asian population, Tarrant County area census tracts, 2015‐
2019
27

28. Percent non‐Hispanic Black population, Tarrant County area census tracts, 2015‐
2019
28

29. Percent population that is Hispanic, Tarrant County area census tracts, 2015‐2019
29

30. Percent of population living below poverty, Tarrant County area, census tracts, 2015‐
2019
30

31. Percent of labor force working in natural resources, construction, maintenance,
occupations, Tarrant County area, census tracts, 2015‐2019
31

32. Percent of labor force working in management, business, science, art occupations,
Tarrant County area, census tracts, 2015‐2019
32

33. Percent lived in a different housing unit 1 year ago, Tarrant County area, census
tracts, 2015‐2019
33

34. Percent population that is foreign born, Tarrant County area, census tracts, 2015‐
2019
34

35. Percent of population speak language other than English and English less than very
well, Tarrant County area, census tracts, 2015‐2019
35

36. Median household income, Tarrant County area, census tracts, 2015‐2019
36

37. Per capita income, Tarrant County area, census tracts, 2015‐2019
37

38. Percent of aged 25 years and older with bachelor’s degree or higher, Tarrant County
area, census tracts, 2015‐2019
38

39. Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2020‐2050
39

40. Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections
Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2020‐2050
40

41. Source: US Census Bureau, 2020
Evaluation Population Estimates
Estimated population and linear forecasts and for select Tarrant County area cities,
2010‐2030
41
927,720
147,515
81,482
‐
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Fort Worth city
Denton city
Flower Mound
town
Grapevine city

42. 42
‐
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Fort Worth
Plano
Frisco
McKinney
Denton
Grapevine
Estimated population and linear forecasts and for select Tarrant County area cities,
2010‐2030

43. 43
‐
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Allen
Flower Mound
North Richland Hills
Euless
Bedford
Keller
Haltom
Estimated population and linear forecasts and for select Tarrant County area cities,
2010‐2030

44. 44
‐
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Flower Mound
Hurst
Southlake
Colleyville
Watauga
Taylor
Estimated population and linear forecasts and for select Tarrant County area cities,
2010‐2030

45. 45
Population Projections, DFW Metro Largest Counties, 2020‐2050
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Dallas
Tarrant
Collin
Denton

46. 46
Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity for Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and
Denton Counties, Texas 2020‐2050
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
NH White
Hispanic
NH Black
NH Asian
NH Other

47. 47
30.1
47.4
24
29
34
39
44
49
Millions
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010‐2050
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

48. 48
Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
NH White
Hispanic
NH Black
NH Asian
NH Other

49. 49
https://demographics.texas.gov/

50. Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
(210) 458‐6530
TDC@UTSA.edu
Demographics.Texas.gov
@TexasDemography
50