USA DOE – OIL STATISTICS
WEEK 6
2017
ARNAUD BOUCARD
The opinions expressed in this report are my own
and do not necessarily represent the views of my
employer, Thomson Reuters
Source: US Department of Energy
AGENDA
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 03
1. CRUDE OIL 04
2. GASOLINE 06
3. DISTILLATES 08
4. KEROZENE 10
5. REFINERY 12
II. ANNEXE 13
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
DOE – STATISTICS
Crude stocks gained 9 527 kb to 518 119 kb versus an expected gain of 3 513 kb. This gain was led by
PADD 3 with a build of 6 825 kb, and lower implied demand (- 434 kb/d). Confirming build trend during last
6 weeks, stocks are 149 567 kb superior to the 5y average (368 552 kb)and reached a new high for week
6 (over 5 past years). Furthermore, stocks are 15 677 kb above the 4w average (502 442 kb), and 47 443
kb superior to the last year (470 676 kb).
Cushing stocks declined by 702 kb to 64 568 kb. It's 19 044 kb superior to the 5y Average (45 524 kb),
266 kb under the 4w average (64 834 kb), and 129 kb behind the last year (64 697 kb).
Gasoline Stocks gained 2 847 kb to 259 064 kb versus an expected fall of 752 kb. It is 19 701 kb/d above
the 5y Average (239 363 kb), 25 855 kb/d above the 4w average (233 209 kb), and 3 407 kb/d above the
last year (255 657 kb). The rise was run by PADD 3 with a gain of 2 440 kb, and lower Gasoline imports (-
207 kb/d). With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).
The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Distillates stocks down by 691 kb to 170 056
kb versus an expected drawdown of 752 kb. that is 35 079 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (134 977 kb),
54 119 kb/d over the 4w average (115 937 kb), and 9 080 kb/d above the last year (160 976 kb). The
reduction was led by PADD 1 with a fall of 2 386 kb. With current level Distillates stocks reached a new high
The downward trend begun 2 weeks ago was interrupted, and Kerosene stocks gained 2 567 kb to 43 151
kb, which is 3 477 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (39 674 kb), 560 kb/d over the 4w average (42 591
kb), and 1 454 kb/d above the last year (41 697 kb). The gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 1 746 kb,
and lower implied demand (- 661 kb/d). With current level Kerosene stocks reached a new high for week 6
(over 5 past years).
Refinery Run delcline 2.38 pt versus an expected delcline of 0.30 pt.
3
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
Change Level
9,527 518,119
-702 64,568
2,847 259,064
-691 170,056
2,567 43,151
-2.38 85.35%
Current Week
Crude Oil - Lower 48
Crude Oil - Cushing
Gasoline
Distillates
Kerozene
Refinery Run
Thomson Reuters
Survey
3,513
-752
Difference
-696
-0.30
6,014
3,599
5
-2.08
WEEK 6
2017
CRUDE OIL
4
Storage (kb) Cushing (Oklahoma) - Storage (kb)
320,000
335,000
350,000
365,000
380,000
395,000
410,000
425,000
440,000
455,000
470,000
485,000
500,000
515,000
530,000
545,000
Range 2012 - 2016
2015 2016
2017 5Y AVG
Production (kb) Imports (kb)
Days of Supply
4,800
5,100
5,400
5,700
6,000
6,300
6,600
6,900
7,200
7,500
7,800
8,100
8,400
8,700
9,000
9,300
9,600
9,900
18,000
22,000
26,000
30,000
34,000
38,000
42,000
46,000
50,000
54,000
58,000
62,000
66,000
70,000
74,000
6,500
6,850
7,200
7,550
7,900
8,250
8,600
8,950
9,300
9,650
10,000
10,350
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
CRUDE OIL
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
For a 6th consecutive week, crude stocks gained 9 527 kb to 518 119 kb. This gain was led by PADD 3
with a build of 6 825 kb, and lower implied demand (- 434 kb/d).
Stocks levels of PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 moved by 455 kb, -1 289 kb, 697 kb, 2 840 kb
respectively.
Confirming build trend during last 6 weeks, stocks are 149 567 kb superior to the 5y average (368 552
kb)and reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Furthermore, stocks are 15 677 kb above the
4w average (502 442 kb), and 47 443 kb superior to the last year (470 676 kb).
Weekly crude run (refinery input) down by 434 kb/d to 15 459 kb/d. 4w Average reached 15 459 kb/d (-
434 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 32.7 days of supply.
Cushing stocks declined by 702 kb to 64 568 kb. It's 19 044 kb superior to the 5y Average (45 524 kb),
266 kb under the 4w average (64 834 kb), and 129 kb behind the last year (64 697 kb).
Crude production contracted by 1 kb/d to 8 977 kb/d. That is 1 092 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (7
885 kb), 19 kb/d over the 4w average (8 958 kb/d), and 209 kb/d under the last year (9 186 kb).
Crude imports declined by 880 kb/d to 8 492 kb/d. It's 770 kb/d over the 5y Average (7 722 kb), 2 kb/d
over the 4w average (8 491 kb/d), and 1 367 kb/d over the last year (7 125 kb).
US imports: Canada (3 138 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (1 457 kb/d), Mexico ( 573 kb/d), Venezuela ( 388 kb/d),
Kuwait ( 208 kb/d), Colombia ( 705 kb/d), Ecuator ( 226 kb/d), and Angola ( 119 kb/d), and Iraq ( 440
kb/d), and Nigeria ( 287 kb/d), and Others ( 951 kb/d).
5
Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation
2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs current
IMPLIED DEMAND (kbl /day)
Implied Demand 15,459 15,893 -434 15,837 -378 15,511 -52 15,064 395
REFINERY INPUT (kbl /day)
Total 15,459 15,893 -434 15,837 -378 15,511 -52 15,064 395
PADD 1PADD 1 - East Coast 994 1,071 -77 1,047 -53 1,030 -36 985 9
PADD 2PADD 2 - Midwest 3,647 3,693 -46 3,698 -51 3,707 -60 3,514 133
PADD 3PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,034 8,206 -172 8,201 -167 8,010 24 7,716 318
PADD 4PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 623 601 22 613 11 439 184 533 90
PADD 5PADD 5 - West Coast 2,161 2,322 -161 2,278 -117 2,325 -164 2,316 -155
PRODUCTION (kbl / day)
Total 8,977 8,978 -1 8,958 19 9,186 -209 7,885 1,092
IMPORTS (kbl / day)
Total 8,492 9,372 -880 8,491 2 7,125 1,367 7,722 770
PADD 1PADD 1 - East Coast 880 1,049 -169 945 -65 721 159 781 99
PADD 2PADD 2 - Midwest 2,530 2,802 -272 2,677 -147 2,668 -138 2,128 402
PADD 3PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 3,376 3,967 -591 3,378 -2 2,499 877 3,482 -106
PADD 4PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 385 320 65 376 9 185 200 261 124
PADD 5PADD 5 - West Coast 1,321 1,234 87 1,115 206 1,052 269 1,071 250
STORAGE(kbl)
Total 518,119 508,592 9,527 502,442 15,677 470,676 47,443 368,552 149,567
PADD 1PADD 1 - East Coast 17,989 17,534 455 17,502 488 16,494 1,495 11,486 6,503
PADD 2PADD 2 - Midwest 149,667 150,956 -1,289 149,754 -87 146,907 2,760 113,761 35,906
Cushing (Oklahoma) 64,568 65,270 -702 64,834 -266 64,697 -129 45,524 19,044
PADD 3PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 274,396 267,571 6,825 261,716 12,680 231,002 43,394 173,040 101,356
PADD 4PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 23,896 23,199 697 23,360 536 19,078 4,818 16,258 7,638
PADD 5PADD 5 - West Coast 52,172 49,332 2,840 50,110 2,062 57,194 -5,022 54,006 -1,834
GASOLINE
WEEK 6
2017
Storage (kb) Price
Range 2012 - 2016
2015 2016
2017 5Y AVG
Production (kb) Imports (kb)
Days of Supply
6
8,250
8,425
8,600
8,775
8,950
9,125
9,300
9,475
9,650
9,825
10,000
10,175
10,350
10,525
195,000
200,000
205,000
210,000
215,000
220,000
225,000
230,000
235,000
240,000
245,000
250,000
255,000
260,000
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
21.75
22.50
23.25
24.00
24.75
25.50
26.25
27.00
27.75
28.50
29.25
30.00
GASOLINE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7
Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation
2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs current
IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUMESUPPLIED (kbl /day)
Volume Supplied 8,433 8,941 -508 8,431 2 9,122 -689 8,460 -27
REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day)
Total 8,950 8,950 0 9,170 -220 8,936 14 8,855 95
Adjustement (Blend) -323 -628 305 -141 -183 -701 378 -212 -111
PADD 1 - East Coast 2,927 3,004 -77 2,944 -17 3,008 -81 2,807 120
PADD 2 - Midwest 2,391 2,435 -44 2,391 1 2,474 -83 2,280 111
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,110 2,225 -115 2,124 -14 2,341 -231 2,150 -40
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 300 275 25 293 7 289 11 305 -5
PADD 5 - West Coast 1,545 1,639 -94 1,559 -14 1,525 20 1,525 20
IMPORTS (kbl / day)
Total 604 811 -207 624 -20 684 -80 531 73
PADD 1 - East Coast 434 743 -309 516 -82 602 -168 499 -65
PADD 2 - Midwest 15 15 0 14 2 11 4 9 6
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 113 43 70 75 38 13 100 6 107
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
PADD 5 - West Coast 41 9 32 19 22 58 -17 19 22
STORAGE(kbl)
Total 259,064 256,217 2,847 233,209 25,855 255,657 3,407 239,363 19,701
PADD 1 - East Coast 76,285 73,845 2,440 73,817 2,468 68,763 7,522 64,678 11,607
PADD 2 - Midwest 59,729 60,251 -522 58,946 783 62,851 -3,122 56,027 3,702
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 83,391 83,203 188 84,443 -1,052 83,717 -326 78,746 4,645
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 8,534 8,613 -79 8,375 159 7,309 1,225 7,205 1,329
PADD 5 - West Coast 31,125 30,305 820 30,816 309 33,017 -1,892 32,707 -1,582
DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGEvs VOLUMESUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE)
Gasoline Stocks gained 2 847 kb to 259 064 kb, which is 19 701 kb/d above the 5y Average (239 363
kb), 25 855 kb/d above the 4w average (233 209 kb), and 3 407 kb/d above the last year (255 657 kb).
The rise was run by PADD 3 with a gain of 2 440 kb, and lower Gasoline imports (- 207 kb/d).
PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 522 kb, 188 kb, - 79 kb, 820 kb
With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).
Weekly volume supplied of Gasoline reduced by 508 kb/d to 8 433 kb/d. 4w Average reached 8 431 kb
(+ 2 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 30.7 days of supply.
Gasoline production remain same 0 kb/d to 8 950 kb/d. That is 95 kb/d above the 5y Average (8 855
kb), 220 kb/d beneath the 4w average (9 170 kb), and 14 kb/d above the last year (8 936 kb).
Gasoline imports down by 207 kb/d to 604 kb/d. It's 73 kb/d superior to the 5y Average ( 531 kb), 20
kb/d behind the 4w average ( 624 kb), and 80 kb/d beneath the last year ( 684 kb).
DISTILLATES
WEEK 6
2017
Storage (kb)
Range 2012 - 2016
2015 2016
2017 5Y AVG
Production (kb) Imports (kb)
Days of Supply
8
97,500
105,000
112,500
120,000
127,500
135,000
142,500
150,000
157,500
165,000
172,500
180,000
21.75
22.50
23.25
24.00
24.75
25.50
26.25
27.00
27.75
28.50
29.25
30.00
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
3,800
3,925
4,050
4,175
4,300
4,425
4,550
4,675
4,800
4,925
5,050
5,175
5,300
Price
DISTILLATES
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs current
IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUMESUPPLIED (kbl /day)
Volume Supplied 3,853 3,910 -57 3,804 49 3,162 691 3,778 75
REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day)
Total 4,530 4,801 -271 4,646 -116 4,358 172 4,482 48
PADD 1 - East Coast 319 362 -43 332 -13 285 34 294 25
PADD 2 - Midwest 1,055 1,133 -78 1,089 -34 1,067 -12 1,027 28
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,472 2,526 -54 2,496 -24 2,342 130 2,456 16
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 209 203 6 206 3 142 67 181 28
PADD 5 - West Coast 475 577 -102 523 -48 522 -47 525 -50
IMPORTS (kbl / day)
Total 196 268 -72 207 -11 200 -4 203 -7
PADD 1 - East Coast 150 203 -53 178 -28 158 -8 181 -31
PADD 2 - Midwest 0 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 4 -4
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 34 -34 0 0
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 -1
PADD 5 - West Coast 64 5 59 26 38 7 57 6 58
STORAGE(kbl)
Total 170,056 170,747 -691 115,937 54,119 160,976 9,080 134,977 35,079
PADD 1 - East Coast 65,826 68,212 -2,386 66,971 -1,145 62,324 3,502 42,619 23,207
PADD 2 - Midwest 34,778 34,369 409 34,207 572 33,287 1,491 31,194 3,584
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 49,881 49,438 443 50,552 -671 47,201 2,680 43,136 6,745
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3,942 3,870 72 3,931 12 3,389 553 3,712 230
PADD 5 - West Coast 15,629 14,858 771 14,507 1,122 14,775 854 14,316 1,313
DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGEvs VOLUMESUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE)
Total 44.7
The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Distillates stocks down by 691 kb to 170
056 kb, which is 35 079 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (134 977 kb), 54 119 kb/d over the 4w average
(115 937 kb), and 9 080 kb/d above the last year (160 976 kb).
The reduction was led by PADD 1 with a fall of 2 386 kb.
PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by 409 kb, 443 kb, 72 kb, 771 kb
With current level Distillates stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).
Weekly volume supplied of Distillates declined by 57 kb/d to 3 853 kb/d. 4w Average reached 3 804 kb
(+ 49 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 44.7 days of supply.
Distillates production fell by 271 kb/d to 4 530 kb/d. That is 48 kb/d above the 5y Average (4 482 kb),
116 kb/d behind the 4w average (4 646 kb), and 172 kb/d over the last year (4 358 kb).
Distillates imports reduced by 72 kb/d to 196 kb/d. It's 7 kb/d under the 5y Average ( 203 kb), 11 kb/d
inferior to the 4w average ( 207 kb), and 4 kb/d behind the last year ( 200 kb).
KEROSENE
WEEK 6
2017
Storage (kb)
Range 2012 - 2016
2015 2016
2017 5Y AVG
Production (kb) Imports (kb)
Days of Supply
10
32,000
33,350
34,700
36,050
37,400
38,750
40,100
41,450
42,800
44,150
45,500
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
26.00
27.00
28.00
29.00
30.00
31.00
32.00
33.00
34.00
35.00
1,185
1,235
1,285
1,335
1,385
1,435
1,485
1,535
1,585
1,635
1,685
1,735
1,785
0
35
70
105
140
175
210
245
280
315
350
385
420
Price
KEROSENE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
11
IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUMESUPPLIED (kbl /day)
Volume Supplied 1,173 1,834 -661 1,544 -371 1,616 -443 1,424 -251
REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day)
Total 1,646 1,662 -16 1,649 -3 1,570 76 1,498 148
PADD 1 - East Coast 72 74 -2 76 -4 77 -5 70 2
PADD 2 - Midwest 251 228 23 254 -3 236 15 229 22
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 840 822 18 832 8 776 64 747 93
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 27 34 -7 31 -4 35 -8 26 1
PADD 5 - West Coast 456 504 -48 456 0 446 10 426 30
IMPORTS (kbl / day)
Total 86 208 -122 120 -34 110 -24 92 -6
PADD 1 - East Coast 27 74 -47 48 -21 67 -40 64 -37
PADD 2 - Midwest 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PADD 5 - West Coast 58 133 -75 72 -14 43 15 27 31
STORAGE(kbl)
Total 43,151 40,584 2,567 42,591 560 41,697 1,454 39,674 3,477
PADD 1 - East Coast 8,691 8,968 -277 9,542 -851 10,365 -1,674 9,729 -1,038
PADD 2 - Midwest 7,506 6,857 649 6,997 509 7,071 435 7,201 305
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 16,320 14,574 1,746 15,656 664 13,623 2,697 12,544 3,776
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 633 667 -34 634 -1 743 -110 650 -17
PADD 5 - West Coast 10,001 9,518 483 9,762 239 9,895 106 9,550 451
DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGEvs VOLUMESUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE)
Total 27.9
The downward trend begun 2 weeks ago was interrupted, and Kerosene stocks gained 2 567 kb to 43
151 kb, which is 3 477 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (39 674 kb), 560 kb/d over the 4w average (42
591 kb), and 1 454 kb/d above the last year (41 697 kb).
The gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 1 746 kb, and lower implied demand (- 661 kb/d).
PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 277 kb, 649 kb, - 34 kb, 483 kb
With current level Kerosene stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).
Weekly volume supplied of Kerozene declined by 661 kb/d to 1 173 kb/d. 4w Average reached 1 544 kb (-
371 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 27.9 days of supply.
Kerosene production declined by 16 kb/d to 1 646 kb/d. That is 148 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (1
498 kb), 3 kb/d under the 4w average (1 649 kb), and 76 kb/d above the last year (1 570 kb).
Kerosene imports fell by 122 kb/d to 86 kb/d. It's 6 kb/d below the 5y Average ( 92 kb), 34 kb/d under
the 4w average ( 120 kb), and 24 kb/d behind the last year ( 110 kb).
REFINERY RUN
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
12
Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation
2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current
OPERABLECAPACITY (kbl / day)
Total USA 18,475 18,475 0 18,475 0 18,172 303
PADD 1 - East Coast 1,278 1,278 0 1,278 0 1,273 5
PADD 2 - Midwest 3,957 3,957 0 3,957 0 3,878 79
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 9,620 9,620 0 9,620 0 9,437 183
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 696 696 0 696 0 651 45
PADD 5 - West Coast 2,924 2,924 0 2,924 0 2,933 -9
GROSS INPUT (kbl / day)
Total USA 15,769 16,208 -439 16,148 -379 15,643 126
PADD 1 - East Coast 996 1,073 -77 1,044 -48 1,022 -26
PADD 2 - Midwest 3,647 3,695 -48 3,699 -52 3,709 -62
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,170 8,293 -123 8,316 -146 7,992 178
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 624 603 21 615 10 443 181
PADD 5 - West Coast 2,332 2,544 -212 2,475 -143 2,477 -145
% UTILISATION
Total USA 85.35% 87.73% -2.38 87.40% -2.05 86.08% -0.73
PADD 1 - East Coast 77.93% 83.96% -6.03 81.71% -3.78 80.28% -2.35
PADD 2 - Midwest 92.17% 93.38% -1.21 93.47% -1.30 95.64% -3.48
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 84.93% 86.21% -1.28 86.44% -1.52 84.69% 0.24
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 89.66% 86.64% 3.02 88.29% 1.36 68.05% 21.61
PADD 5 - West Coast 79.75% 87.00% -7.25 84.63% -4.87 84.45% -4.70
OUTPUT (kbl / day) : Motor Gas / Distillate / Kerozene / Residual
Total USA 15,966 16,520 -554 16,091 -125 15,988 -22
PADD 1 - East Coast 3,353 3,476 -123 3,396 -43 3,416 -63
PADD 2 - Midwest 3,747 3,847 -100 3,790 -43 3,823 -76
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 5,697 5,801 -104 5,676 22 5,674 23
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 551 527 24 543 8 477 74
PADD 5 - West Coast 2,618 2,869 -251 2,687 -69 2,598 20

Doe statistics overview week 6 - 2017

  • 1.
    USA DOE –OIL STATISTICS WEEK 6 2017 ARNAUD BOUCARD The opinions expressed in this report are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of my employer, Thomson Reuters Source: US Department of Energy
  • 2.
    AGENDA I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY03 1. CRUDE OIL 04 2. GASOLINE 06 3. DISTILLATES 08 4. KEROZENE 10 5. REFINERY 12 II. ANNEXE 13 2
  • 3.
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DOE –STATISTICS Crude stocks gained 9 527 kb to 518 119 kb versus an expected gain of 3 513 kb. This gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 6 825 kb, and lower implied demand (- 434 kb/d). Confirming build trend during last 6 weeks, stocks are 149 567 kb superior to the 5y average (368 552 kb)and reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Furthermore, stocks are 15 677 kb above the 4w average (502 442 kb), and 47 443 kb superior to the last year (470 676 kb). Cushing stocks declined by 702 kb to 64 568 kb. It's 19 044 kb superior to the 5y Average (45 524 kb), 266 kb under the 4w average (64 834 kb), and 129 kb behind the last year (64 697 kb). Gasoline Stocks gained 2 847 kb to 259 064 kb versus an expected fall of 752 kb. It is 19 701 kb/d above the 5y Average (239 363 kb), 25 855 kb/d above the 4w average (233 209 kb), and 3 407 kb/d above the last year (255 657 kb). The rise was run by PADD 3 with a gain of 2 440 kb, and lower Gasoline imports (- 207 kb/d). With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Distillates stocks down by 691 kb to 170 056 kb versus an expected drawdown of 752 kb. that is 35 079 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (134 977 kb), 54 119 kb/d over the 4w average (115 937 kb), and 9 080 kb/d above the last year (160 976 kb). The reduction was led by PADD 1 with a fall of 2 386 kb. With current level Distillates stocks reached a new high The downward trend begun 2 weeks ago was interrupted, and Kerosene stocks gained 2 567 kb to 43 151 kb, which is 3 477 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (39 674 kb), 560 kb/d over the 4w average (42 591 kb), and 1 454 kb/d above the last year (41 697 kb). The gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 1 746 kb, and lower implied demand (- 661 kb/d). With current level Kerosene stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Refinery Run delcline 2.38 pt versus an expected delcline of 0.30 pt. 3 EXECUTIVESUMMARY Change Level 9,527 518,119 -702 64,568 2,847 259,064 -691 170,056 2,567 43,151 -2.38 85.35% Current Week Crude Oil - Lower 48 Crude Oil - Cushing Gasoline Distillates Kerozene Refinery Run Thomson Reuters Survey 3,513 -752 Difference -696 -0.30 6,014 3,599 5 -2.08
  • 4.
    WEEK 6 2017 CRUDE OIL 4 Storage(kb) Cushing (Oklahoma) - Storage (kb) 320,000 335,000 350,000 365,000 380,000 395,000 410,000 425,000 440,000 455,000 470,000 485,000 500,000 515,000 530,000 545,000 Range 2012 - 2016 2015 2016 2017 5Y AVG Production (kb) Imports (kb) Days of Supply 4,800 5,100 5,400 5,700 6,000 6,300 6,600 6,900 7,200 7,500 7,800 8,100 8,400 8,700 9,000 9,300 9,600 9,900 18,000 22,000 26,000 30,000 34,000 38,000 42,000 46,000 50,000 54,000 58,000 62,000 66,000 70,000 74,000 6,500 6,850 7,200 7,550 7,900 8,250 8,600 8,950 9,300 9,650 10,000 10,350 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0
  • 5.
    CRUDE OIL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Fora 6th consecutive week, crude stocks gained 9 527 kb to 518 119 kb. This gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 6 825 kb, and lower implied demand (- 434 kb/d). Stocks levels of PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 moved by 455 kb, -1 289 kb, 697 kb, 2 840 kb respectively. Confirming build trend during last 6 weeks, stocks are 149 567 kb superior to the 5y average (368 552 kb)and reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Furthermore, stocks are 15 677 kb above the 4w average (502 442 kb), and 47 443 kb superior to the last year (470 676 kb). Weekly crude run (refinery input) down by 434 kb/d to 15 459 kb/d. 4w Average reached 15 459 kb/d (- 434 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 32.7 days of supply. Cushing stocks declined by 702 kb to 64 568 kb. It's 19 044 kb superior to the 5y Average (45 524 kb), 266 kb under the 4w average (64 834 kb), and 129 kb behind the last year (64 697 kb). Crude production contracted by 1 kb/d to 8 977 kb/d. That is 1 092 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (7 885 kb), 19 kb/d over the 4w average (8 958 kb/d), and 209 kb/d under the last year (9 186 kb). Crude imports declined by 880 kb/d to 8 492 kb/d. It's 770 kb/d over the 5y Average (7 722 kb), 2 kb/d over the 4w average (8 491 kb/d), and 1 367 kb/d over the last year (7 125 kb). US imports: Canada (3 138 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (1 457 kb/d), Mexico ( 573 kb/d), Venezuela ( 388 kb/d), Kuwait ( 208 kb/d), Colombia ( 705 kb/d), Ecuator ( 226 kb/d), and Angola ( 119 kb/d), and Iraq ( 440 kb/d), and Nigeria ( 287 kb/d), and Others ( 951 kb/d). 5 Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation 2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs current IMPLIED DEMAND (kbl /day) Implied Demand 15,459 15,893 -434 15,837 -378 15,511 -52 15,064 395 REFINERY INPUT (kbl /day) Total 15,459 15,893 -434 15,837 -378 15,511 -52 15,064 395 PADD 1PADD 1 - East Coast 994 1,071 -77 1,047 -53 1,030 -36 985 9 PADD 2PADD 2 - Midwest 3,647 3,693 -46 3,698 -51 3,707 -60 3,514 133 PADD 3PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,034 8,206 -172 8,201 -167 8,010 24 7,716 318 PADD 4PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 623 601 22 613 11 439 184 533 90 PADD 5PADD 5 - West Coast 2,161 2,322 -161 2,278 -117 2,325 -164 2,316 -155 PRODUCTION (kbl / day) Total 8,977 8,978 -1 8,958 19 9,186 -209 7,885 1,092 IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 8,492 9,372 -880 8,491 2 7,125 1,367 7,722 770 PADD 1PADD 1 - East Coast 880 1,049 -169 945 -65 721 159 781 99 PADD 2PADD 2 - Midwest 2,530 2,802 -272 2,677 -147 2,668 -138 2,128 402 PADD 3PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 3,376 3,967 -591 3,378 -2 2,499 877 3,482 -106 PADD 4PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 385 320 65 376 9 185 200 261 124 PADD 5PADD 5 - West Coast 1,321 1,234 87 1,115 206 1,052 269 1,071 250 STORAGE(kbl) Total 518,119 508,592 9,527 502,442 15,677 470,676 47,443 368,552 149,567 PADD 1PADD 1 - East Coast 17,989 17,534 455 17,502 488 16,494 1,495 11,486 6,503 PADD 2PADD 2 - Midwest 149,667 150,956 -1,289 149,754 -87 146,907 2,760 113,761 35,906 Cushing (Oklahoma) 64,568 65,270 -702 64,834 -266 64,697 -129 45,524 19,044 PADD 3PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 274,396 267,571 6,825 261,716 12,680 231,002 43,394 173,040 101,356 PADD 4PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 23,896 23,199 697 23,360 536 19,078 4,818 16,258 7,638 PADD 5PADD 5 - West Coast 52,172 49,332 2,840 50,110 2,062 57,194 -5,022 54,006 -1,834
  • 6.
    GASOLINE WEEK 6 2017 Storage (kb)Price Range 2012 - 2016 2015 2016 2017 5Y AVG Production (kb) Imports (kb) Days of Supply 6 8,250 8,425 8,600 8,775 8,950 9,125 9,300 9,475 9,650 9,825 10,000 10,175 10,350 10,525 195,000 200,000 205,000 210,000 215,000 220,000 225,000 230,000 235,000 240,000 245,000 250,000 255,000 260,000 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 21.75 22.50 23.25 24.00 24.75 25.50 26.25 27.00 27.75 28.50 29.25 30.00
  • 7.
    GASOLINE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 Current PastWeek Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation 2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs current IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUMESUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 8,433 8,941 -508 8,431 2 9,122 -689 8,460 -27 REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 8,950 8,950 0 9,170 -220 8,936 14 8,855 95 Adjustement (Blend) -323 -628 305 -141 -183 -701 378 -212 -111 PADD 1 - East Coast 2,927 3,004 -77 2,944 -17 3,008 -81 2,807 120 PADD 2 - Midwest 2,391 2,435 -44 2,391 1 2,474 -83 2,280 111 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,110 2,225 -115 2,124 -14 2,341 -231 2,150 -40 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 300 275 25 293 7 289 11 305 -5 PADD 5 - West Coast 1,545 1,639 -94 1,559 -14 1,525 20 1,525 20 IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 604 811 -207 624 -20 684 -80 531 73 PADD 1 - East Coast 434 743 -309 516 -82 602 -168 499 -65 PADD 2 - Midwest 15 15 0 14 2 11 4 9 6 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 113 43 70 75 38 13 100 6 107 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 PADD 5 - West Coast 41 9 32 19 22 58 -17 19 22 STORAGE(kbl) Total 259,064 256,217 2,847 233,209 25,855 255,657 3,407 239,363 19,701 PADD 1 - East Coast 76,285 73,845 2,440 73,817 2,468 68,763 7,522 64,678 11,607 PADD 2 - Midwest 59,729 60,251 -522 58,946 783 62,851 -3,122 56,027 3,702 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 83,391 83,203 188 84,443 -1,052 83,717 -326 78,746 4,645 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 8,534 8,613 -79 8,375 159 7,309 1,225 7,205 1,329 PADD 5 - West Coast 31,125 30,305 820 30,816 309 33,017 -1,892 32,707 -1,582 DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGEvs VOLUMESUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Gasoline Stocks gained 2 847 kb to 259 064 kb, which is 19 701 kb/d above the 5y Average (239 363 kb), 25 855 kb/d above the 4w average (233 209 kb), and 3 407 kb/d above the last year (255 657 kb). The rise was run by PADD 3 with a gain of 2 440 kb, and lower Gasoline imports (- 207 kb/d). PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 522 kb, 188 kb, - 79 kb, 820 kb With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Weekly volume supplied of Gasoline reduced by 508 kb/d to 8 433 kb/d. 4w Average reached 8 431 kb (+ 2 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 30.7 days of supply. Gasoline production remain same 0 kb/d to 8 950 kb/d. That is 95 kb/d above the 5y Average (8 855 kb), 220 kb/d beneath the 4w average (9 170 kb), and 14 kb/d above the last year (8 936 kb). Gasoline imports down by 207 kb/d to 604 kb/d. It's 73 kb/d superior to the 5y Average ( 531 kb), 20 kb/d behind the 4w average ( 624 kb), and 80 kb/d beneath the last year ( 684 kb).
  • 8.
    DISTILLATES WEEK 6 2017 Storage (kb) Range2012 - 2016 2015 2016 2017 5Y AVG Production (kb) Imports (kb) Days of Supply 8 97,500 105,000 112,500 120,000 127,500 135,000 142,500 150,000 157,500 165,000 172,500 180,000 21.75 22.50 23.25 24.00 24.75 25.50 26.25 27.00 27.75 28.50 29.25 30.00 25 75 125 175 225 275 325 375 425 475 525 575 3,800 3,925 4,050 4,175 4,300 4,425 4,550 4,675 4,800 4,925 5,050 5,175 5,300 Price
  • 9.
    DISTILLATES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 2/10/2017 2/3/2017vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs current IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUMESUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 3,853 3,910 -57 3,804 49 3,162 691 3,778 75 REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 4,530 4,801 -271 4,646 -116 4,358 172 4,482 48 PADD 1 - East Coast 319 362 -43 332 -13 285 34 294 25 PADD 2 - Midwest 1,055 1,133 -78 1,089 -34 1,067 -12 1,027 28 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,472 2,526 -54 2,496 -24 2,342 130 2,456 16 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 209 203 6 206 3 142 67 181 28 PADD 5 - West Coast 475 577 -102 523 -48 522 -47 525 -50 IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 196 268 -72 207 -11 200 -4 203 -7 PADD 1 - East Coast 150 203 -53 178 -28 158 -8 181 -31 PADD 2 - Midwest 0 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 4 -4 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 34 -34 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 -1 PADD 5 - West Coast 64 5 59 26 38 7 57 6 58 STORAGE(kbl) Total 170,056 170,747 -691 115,937 54,119 160,976 9,080 134,977 35,079 PADD 1 - East Coast 65,826 68,212 -2,386 66,971 -1,145 62,324 3,502 42,619 23,207 PADD 2 - Midwest 34,778 34,369 409 34,207 572 33,287 1,491 31,194 3,584 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 49,881 49,438 443 50,552 -671 47,201 2,680 43,136 6,745 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3,942 3,870 72 3,931 12 3,389 553 3,712 230 PADD 5 - West Coast 15,629 14,858 771 14,507 1,122 14,775 854 14,316 1,313 DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGEvs VOLUMESUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 44.7 The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Distillates stocks down by 691 kb to 170 056 kb, which is 35 079 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (134 977 kb), 54 119 kb/d over the 4w average (115 937 kb), and 9 080 kb/d above the last year (160 976 kb). The reduction was led by PADD 1 with a fall of 2 386 kb. PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by 409 kb, 443 kb, 72 kb, 771 kb With current level Distillates stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Weekly volume supplied of Distillates declined by 57 kb/d to 3 853 kb/d. 4w Average reached 3 804 kb (+ 49 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 44.7 days of supply. Distillates production fell by 271 kb/d to 4 530 kb/d. That is 48 kb/d above the 5y Average (4 482 kb), 116 kb/d behind the 4w average (4 646 kb), and 172 kb/d over the last year (4 358 kb). Distillates imports reduced by 72 kb/d to 196 kb/d. It's 7 kb/d under the 5y Average ( 203 kb), 11 kb/d inferior to the 4w average ( 207 kb), and 4 kb/d behind the last year ( 200 kb).
  • 10.
    KEROSENE WEEK 6 2017 Storage (kb) Range2012 - 2016 2015 2016 2017 5Y AVG Production (kb) Imports (kb) Days of Supply 10 32,000 33,350 34,700 36,050 37,400 38,750 40,100 41,450 42,800 44,150 45,500 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00 26.00 27.00 28.00 29.00 30.00 31.00 32.00 33.00 34.00 35.00 1,185 1,235 1,285 1,335 1,385 1,435 1,485 1,535 1,585 1,635 1,685 1,735 1,785 0 35 70 105 140 175 210 245 280 315 350 385 420 Price
  • 11.
    KEROSENE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 IMPLIED DEMAND& VOLUMESUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 1,173 1,834 -661 1,544 -371 1,616 -443 1,424 -251 REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 1,646 1,662 -16 1,649 -3 1,570 76 1,498 148 PADD 1 - East Coast 72 74 -2 76 -4 77 -5 70 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 251 228 23 254 -3 236 15 229 22 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 840 822 18 832 8 776 64 747 93 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 27 34 -7 31 -4 35 -8 26 1 PADD 5 - West Coast 456 504 -48 456 0 446 10 426 30 IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 86 208 -122 120 -34 110 -24 92 -6 PADD 1 - East Coast 27 74 -47 48 -21 67 -40 64 -37 PADD 2 - Midwest 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 5 - West Coast 58 133 -75 72 -14 43 15 27 31 STORAGE(kbl) Total 43,151 40,584 2,567 42,591 560 41,697 1,454 39,674 3,477 PADD 1 - East Coast 8,691 8,968 -277 9,542 -851 10,365 -1,674 9,729 -1,038 PADD 2 - Midwest 7,506 6,857 649 6,997 509 7,071 435 7,201 305 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 16,320 14,574 1,746 15,656 664 13,623 2,697 12,544 3,776 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 633 667 -34 634 -1 743 -110 650 -17 PADD 5 - West Coast 10,001 9,518 483 9,762 239 9,895 106 9,550 451 DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGEvs VOLUMESUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 27.9 The downward trend begun 2 weeks ago was interrupted, and Kerosene stocks gained 2 567 kb to 43 151 kb, which is 3 477 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (39 674 kb), 560 kb/d over the 4w average (42 591 kb), and 1 454 kb/d above the last year (41 697 kb). The gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 1 746 kb, and lower implied demand (- 661 kb/d). PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 277 kb, 649 kb, - 34 kb, 483 kb With current level Kerosene stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Weekly volume supplied of Kerozene declined by 661 kb/d to 1 173 kb/d. 4w Average reached 1 544 kb (- 371 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 27.9 days of supply. Kerosene production declined by 16 kb/d to 1 646 kb/d. That is 148 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (1 498 kb), 3 kb/d under the 4w average (1 649 kb), and 76 kb/d above the last year (1 570 kb). Kerosene imports fell by 122 kb/d to 86 kb/d. It's 6 kb/d below the 5y Average ( 92 kb), 34 kb/d under the 4w average ( 120 kb), and 24 kb/d behind the last year ( 110 kb).
  • 12.
    REFINERY RUN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 CurrentPast Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current OPERABLECAPACITY (kbl / day) Total USA 18,475 18,475 0 18,475 0 18,172 303 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,278 1,278 0 1,278 0 1,273 5 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,957 3,957 0 3,957 0 3,878 79 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 9,620 9,620 0 9,620 0 9,437 183 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 696 696 0 696 0 651 45 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,924 2,924 0 2,924 0 2,933 -9 GROSS INPUT (kbl / day) Total USA 15,769 16,208 -439 16,148 -379 15,643 126 PADD 1 - East Coast 996 1,073 -77 1,044 -48 1,022 -26 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,647 3,695 -48 3,699 -52 3,709 -62 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,170 8,293 -123 8,316 -146 7,992 178 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 624 603 21 615 10 443 181 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,332 2,544 -212 2,475 -143 2,477 -145 % UTILISATION Total USA 85.35% 87.73% -2.38 87.40% -2.05 86.08% -0.73 PADD 1 - East Coast 77.93% 83.96% -6.03 81.71% -3.78 80.28% -2.35 PADD 2 - Midwest 92.17% 93.38% -1.21 93.47% -1.30 95.64% -3.48 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 84.93% 86.21% -1.28 86.44% -1.52 84.69% 0.24 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 89.66% 86.64% 3.02 88.29% 1.36 68.05% 21.61 PADD 5 - West Coast 79.75% 87.00% -7.25 84.63% -4.87 84.45% -4.70 OUTPUT (kbl / day) : Motor Gas / Distillate / Kerozene / Residual Total USA 15,966 16,520 -554 16,091 -125 15,988 -22 PADD 1 - East Coast 3,353 3,476 -123 3,396 -43 3,416 -63 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,747 3,847 -100 3,790 -43 3,823 -76 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 5,697 5,801 -104 5,676 22 5,674 23 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 551 527 24 543 8 477 74 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,618 2,869 -251 2,687 -69 2,598 20