Consumer confidence tends to increase from October to November around election times. In election years, confidence rose 11 times and fell 5 times, averaging a 2.4 point gain. Gains were larger in presidential election years compared to midterm years. In non-election years, confidence was more evenly split between increases and decreases, averaging a smaller 1.2 point rise. The upcoming election suggests confidence may rise but not as much as in presidential election years.

1. Consumer Confidence and Elections:
Do consumer attitudes shift predictably around the time of an election? Do these changes differ
depending on whether the election is a presidential or midterm election?
Consumer Confidence has been collected on a monthly basis in the last quarter of the year since 1977.
This gives us 16 election years, 8 presidential and 8 midterm, for which we can study Consumer
Confidence between October and November—before and after an election. We also have 17 non‐
election year measurements for comparison. The Consumer Confidence Index, the change and percent
change in the index, and election information are depicted in the chart that follows.
On average, the consumer confidence index increased by 1.8, a 2.8 percent gain, from October to
November. This average includes 12 declines from October to November and 21 gains. The breakdown
among election years shows that gains also outpace declines. In all election years, the consumer
confidence moved up in November 11 times and moved down only 5 times for an average gain of 2.4 in
the index or 4.0 percent.
Separating election years into presidential and midterm election years, we see that the index improved
in November in 5 of 8 presidential election years and 6 of 8 midterm election years. Average gains were
somewhat higher in the presidential election years, the index was up 2.6 or 5.2 percent as opposed to
an increase of 2.2 in the index or 2.9 percent in midterm election years.
By comparison, non‐election years saw more even odds on the change in Consumer Confidence from
October to November; the index increased in 10 of 17 years. The gains in non‐election years were also
smaller. The index rose by 1.2 on average or 1.5 percent.
Will the upcoming election have an effect on Consumer Confidence? If history is a guide, the upcoming
election suggests that Consumer Confidence is more likely to rise than fall from October to November,
but the gain may not be as sizeable as it would if this were a presidential election year. A gain in
Consumer Confidence would be positive news. Perhaps instead of being glued to the TV watching
election returns, consumers will start shopping. Confidence is historically indicative of consumer
spending, especially on larger purchases such as durable goods. September’s reading was 48.5. While
this is an improvement over the winter of 2008 – 2009, the Consumer Confidence has not yet returned
to a prerecession level, when it was above 90.

2.
Year October November
October to
November (%)
October to
November Type of Year
Election
Type President Party
House
Results
Senate
Results
1977 95.5 98.9 3.6% 3.4 No Election
1978 108.6 96.5 ‐11.1% (12.1) Election Year Midterm Carter D D ‐15 D ‐3
1979 92.3 90.2 ‐2.3% (2.1) No Election
1980 84.2 87.2 3.6% 3.0 Election Year Presidential
1981 75.6 66.9 ‐11.5% (8.7) No Election
1982 54.3 57.4 5.7% 3.1 Election Year Midterm Reagan R R ‐26 R +2
1983 92.1 96.7 5.0% 4.6 No Election
1984 99.1 105.5 6.5% 6.4 Election Year Presidential
1985 96.1 98.1 2.1% 2.0 No Election
1986 85.8 89.7 4.5% 3.9 Election Year Midterm Reagan R R ‐5 R ‐8
1987 115.1 100.8 ‐12.4% (14.3) No Election
1988 116.9 112.9 ‐3.4% (4.0) Election Year Presidential
1989 117 115.1 ‐1.6% (1.9) No Election
1990 62.6 61.7 ‐1.4% (0.9) Election Year Midterm G. H.W. Bush R R ‐8 R ‐1
1991 60.1 52.7 ‐12.3% (7.4) No Election
1992 54.6 65.6 20.1% 11.0 Election Year Presidential
1993 60.5 71.9 18.8% 11.4 No Election
1994 89.1 100.4 12.7% 11.3 Election Year Midterm Clinton D D ‐54 D ‐8
1995 96.3 101.6 5.5% 5.3 No Election
1996 107.3 109.5 2.1% 2.2 Election Year Presidential
1997 123.4 128.1 3.8% 4.7 No Election
1998 119.3 126.4 6.0% 7.1 Election Year Midterm Clinton D D +5 no change
1999 130.5 137 5.0% 6.5 No Election
2000 135.8 132.6 ‐2.4% (3.2) Election Year Presidential
2001 85.3 84.9 ‐0.5% (0.4) No Election
2002 79.6 84.9 6.7% 5.3 Election Year Midterm G. W. Bush R R +8 R +2
2003 81.7 92.5 13.2% 10.8 No Election
2004 92.9 92.6 ‐0.3% (0.3) Election Year Presidential
2005 85.2 98.3 15.4% 13.1 No Election
2006 105.1 105.3 0.2% 0.2 Election Year Midterm G.W. Bush R R ‐30 R ‐6
2007 95.2 87.8 ‐7.8% (7.4) No Election
2008 38.8 44.7 15.2% 5.9 Election Year Presidential
2009 48.7 50.6 3.90% 1.9 No Election
2010 ?? ?? ?? ?? Election Year Midterm Obama D ?? ??
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence