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Collapse of complex systems
The document summarizes Joseph Tainter's theory from his book "The Collapse of Complex Societies" that societies like the Romans, Maya, and inhabitants of Chaco canyon collapsed due to becoming overly complex. Tainter argues that early on, increasing complexity provides marginal benefits to societies, but it eventually reaches a point of diminishing returns where the costs outweigh the benefits. When unexpected stresses occur, highly complex societies lack flexibility and collapse. The document relates this theory to complex modern societies.
Collapse of complex systems
- 1. The Collapse ofComplex Business Models by Clay Shirky, 2010
- 2. The Collapse ofComplex Business Models by Clay Shirky, 2010 is a develop of the ideas from…
- 3. The Collapse ofComplex Societies by Joseph Tainter, 1990
- 4. The Collapse ofComplex Societies: In 1988, Joseph Tainter wrote a chilling book called The Collapse of Complex Societies. Tainter looked at several societies that gradually arrived at a level of remarkable sophistication then suddenly collapsed: the Romans, the Lowlands Maya, the inhabitants of Chaco canyon.
- 5. The Collapse ofComplex Societies: Every one of those groups had rich traditions, complex social structures, advanced technology, but despite their sophistication, they collapsed, impoverishing and scattering their citizens and leaving little but future archeological sites as evidence of previous greatness.
- 6. The Collapse ofComplex Societies: Tainter asked himself whether there was some explanation common to these sudden dissolutions. The answer he arrived at was that they hadn’t collapsed despite their cultural sophistication, they’d collapsed because of it.
- 7. The Collapse ofComplex Societies: Subject to violent compression, Tainter’s story goes like this: a group of people, through a combination of social organization and environmental luck, finds itself with a surplus of resources. Managing this surplus makes society more complex—agriculture rewards mathematical skill, granaries require new forms of construction, and so on.
- 8. The Collapse ofComplex Societies: Early on, the marginal value of this complexity is positive—each additional bit of complexity more than pays for itself in improved output—but over time, the law of diminishing returns reduces the marginal value, until it disappears completely.
- 9. The Collapse ofComplex Societies: At this point, any additional complexity is pure cost. Tainter’s thesis is that when society’s elite members add one layer of bureaucracy or demand one tribute too many, they end up extracting all the value from their environment it is possible to extract and then some.
- 10. The Collapse ofComplex Societies: The ‘and them some’ is what causes the trouble. Complex societies collapse because, when some stress comes, those societies have become too inflexible to respond.
- 11. Is Sydney aComplex Society?
- 12. mashed together by:peterhac attribution: Clay Shirky and other stuff found on the web image: Sydney Out and About 2009