On July 17th 2014, Aidan Doyle gave first ever live professional Bitcoin Trading Seminar at Bitcoin Center New York City, USA. As a result of first US regulatory proposals now being released by New York State, the presentation was repeated & recorded on July 22nd for subsequent TV broadcast.Viewers may also wish to download the free Ebook "Coining It! A Traders perspective on Bitcoin" on which this presentation is based by visiting: https://files.secureserver.net/0soBPx...

1. A Publication of Bellwether Capital
Management, LP
COINING IT!
A TRADING PERSPECTIVE ON
BITCOIN
Written by Aidan Doyle

2. ABOUT THE AUTHOR
• Aidan Doyle is President & CEO of New York based
financial services company Bellwether Capital
Management, LP, and Head Trader at
New York City Bitcoin Center, the world’s first
physical Digital Currency Exchange, as well as being
host, producer, & creator of the financial
commentary TV shows, "This Week In Forex" and
"Today On The Street"
• Mr. Doyle has been a registered stockbroker and
active trader since the late 1980s both in London
and New York, along the way working with a
veritable who's who of the financial community.
Mr. Doyle is also a frequent contributor to
worldwide financial media, a renowned public
speaker and producer/presenter of the educational
DVD "Understanding Managed Futures.“
You may contact Aidan Doyle directly at
aidandoyle@live.com, subscribe to his
Blog here or connect with him by clicking
on any of the Social Network buttons
shown below.
August, 2014

3. TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Risk Disclosure Statement
• Overview
• Meet the Market Players
• What moves the Market?
• Finding an Exchange
• Creating your Trading Plan
• Your Trading Model
• Entry and Exit Points
• Position Management
• Account Security
• Bitcoin Arbitrage
• Education
• Special Areas of Concern
• Putting it all together
• Good Luck and Video Link
• Free Newsletter and Sharing Links
August, 2014

4. RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
• This brief presentation is provided for informational
purposes only and does not disclose all the risks and
other significant aspects of trading in Bitcoin and similar
digital currencies and should not be construed as specific
investment advice.
• All views and opinions expressed herein are solely those
of Aidan Doyle. Data and other information included here
is believed to be accurate at time of compilation. Neither
Aidan Doyle, Bellwether Capital Management, LP, nor
Bitcoin Center, New York City can be held responsible for
action taken on any opinions, and views expressed in this
presentation.
• In light of the risks, you should undertake such
transactions only if you understand the nature of the
contracts (and contractual relationships) into which you
are entering and the extent of your exposure to risk.
• Trading in Bitcoin and similar digital currencies involves
considerable risks and is not suitable for many members
of the public. You should carefully consider whether this
type of trading is appropriate for you in light of your
experience, objectives, financial resources and other
relevant circumstances.
August, 2014

5. OVERVIEW
• Bitcoin (aka: BTC) because of it’s decentralized nature
and lack of similarity to any other financial instrument or
asset class, has little to no correlation factor to
traditional financial markets. BTC has no P/E, no yield,
no Net Book Value and does not belong to any index or
group against which it can be meaningfully
benchmarked, pegged or compared.
• So how do you trade Bitcoin? What criteria or data can
be used to make develop a trading strategy.?
• The following content ,which is also the subject of a
televised presentation, is a general overview of the areas
and practices that at a minimum, in the opinion of the
author require attention by active traders in Bitcoin.
• Please note this presentation assumes the viewer has
some knowledge of Bitcoin both as a payment processor
and a unit of currency. If Bitcoin is totally new to you, it is
suggested that you acquaint yourselves with the basics,
then come back to this Ebook. For you convenience,
some learning resources are listed on our Education page
–
– “Throughout this Ebook, when you see the “Poison” icon, Be afraid,
be very afraid. This means “Poison for Traders!”
August, 2014

6. Meet the Market Players
At any given time, the market participants (buyers and
sellers) of Bitcoin are usually made up of the following
individuals and/or groups:
* Retail consumers
* Merchants
* Speculators
* Hoarders
* Institutional Investors
* Insiders: Here it is important to not that. as a result of
how Bitcoin came into creation and the ongoing mining
process, there exist holders of indeterminable amounts
of Bitcoin: For example: Satoshi Nakomoto, The
Winklevoss Twins, Ross Ulbricht, Etc.
Anticipating the motivation, behavior and collective
psychology of these groups under various market
conditions will be a big factor in determining your
success in trading the Bitcoin Market.
August, 2014

7. What moves the Market?
Outlined below is a list of factors which have potential
to move the Bitcoin market:
Aggressive buying, Aggressive selling, Perceived
positive or negative news Changes in Supply (M1),
Daily Transaction Volume, Velocity,
Political/Sovereign Adoption, Media Perception,
Merchant Adoption, Regulatory Assimilation,
Economic Adoption, Proliferation and development
of Exchanges and Platforms, Technological
advancements, Security concerns, Twitter Hype,
Online forum posts, Venture capital investment in
industry, destabilization of other national Fiat
Currencies, Social Media etc.
This list is by no means exhaustive and as a trader you
should get in the habit of extrapolating future
scenarios and predictives for inclusion in your
Trading Model and strategy, which is covered later on
in this presentation.
August, 2014

8. Finding an Exchange
Simply put, at the time of this presentation, if you wish
to buy and or sell Bitcoin, you will need to do so via an
online Exchange or a Trading Platform. We are
concerning ourselves here predominately with
selecting a Trading Platform, although it is important
to note that price and order information from different
Exchanges should be integrated into your strategy for
best execution and arbitrage opportunities (Covered in
“Arbitrage” section later on in this presentation) There
are many exchanges to choose from but consideration
should be given towards the following factors:
* Competitive pricing
* Fee structure
* Access to Margin and Leverage
* Position and Order Management Tools
* Order Book Transparency
* SWAP Capability
* Security
Footnote: You could also decide to go another route by simply trading OTC (Over-
The-Counter) with your own pre-defined community, effectively creating your own
exchange marketplace as per NYC Bitcoin Center.
August, 2014

9. Creating your Trading Plan
The first and most vitally important part of a Trader’s
strategy is construction of and adhering to a Trading
Plan.
Whether or not you have already have a Bitcoin Trading
plan, here are some areas you should consider for
inclusion in the creation of your overall strategy.
* Skill Assessment
* Mental Preparation
* Set Goals
* Practice disciplined money management
* Trade Preparation
* Set Exit Rules
* Set Entry Rules
* Keep Excellent Records
•Track and review your performance.
“If you don't follow a written trading plan, you court disaster every
time you enter the market”
August, 2014

10. Your Trading Model
A Trading Model refers to a computer generated forecasting tool
that is used to predict future price movements in the Bitcoin
market. As a predictive of how changes in circumstances and
events may impact future prices, traders are strongly
recommended to build a Trading Model. Also the very act of
building the model will heighten your understanding of the market
itself.
Listed here are examples of indicators and data that might be
included in a BTC Trading Model. You may remember a few of
these from the previous “What Moves The Markets” section.
Spot Price, Supply (M1), Daily Transaction Volume, Velocity,
Political/Sovereign Adoption, Media Perception, Merchant
Adoption, Regulatory Assimilation, Economic Adoption, Venture
Capital investment activity in BTC companies & technologies, Etc.
You are encouraged to build your own model based on your own
views assumptions and criteria, and dynamically modify as
necessary.
A typical pricing model could be as follows:
P = Transaction Volume X 1_____
Velocity Supply (M1)
August, 2014

11. Entry and Exit Points
Use of Fundamental and Technical Analysis
It is outside the scope of this presentations to examine
in depth the pros and cons of fundamental and
technical analysis when trading Bitcoin. However,
suffice to say that the BTC market keys off
predominately more fundamental rather than
technical factors due to its lack of relative liquidity and
institutional participation.
Using simple technical analysis can augument and
validate decision making and signal generation in
addition to employing fundamental indicators and
criteria.
Additionally, a rudimentary signal system can be
created by monitoring the Exchange Order Books,
particularly orders significantly away from Spot Price
as these can give indications as to support and
resistance.
“Beware the Bot. Don’t expect a automated trading alert signal
system or Bot to work. They never do. Devise, develop and adapt your
own system. After all, you are the trader right?”
August, 2014

12. Position Managemnt
Depending on which Trading Platform you elect to use,
and also through the use of other markets, there are
many tools and strategies that can assist you in
managing your trading positions.
From leveraging your buying power, hedging your
exposure, and capping your downside risk, you should
be aware of the options available to you.
Here are some main examples of the kind of position
management tools you may require to successfully
execute your trading strategy:
* Bitcoin Derivatives (eg: BTC Options)
* Margin Trading
• Swap Contracts
• Stop/Limit order capability
• Real-Time Market and Account Analytics
August, 2014

13. Account Security
The nature of the Bitcoin system makes the subject of
security one that requires special attention, because
there no easy way of law enforcement.
As a trader in Bitcoin, the following would be
considered best practices for safeguarding your assets,
privacy and data:
* Securing your computer
* Creating a secure identity
* Securing your Digital Wallet
• Backing up information and files
• Conducting adequate due diligence when selecting
your Trading Exchange.
Note: This list is suggestional and should not be taken
to as being exhaustive.
August, 2014

14. Bitcoin Arbitrage
“In economics and finance,, arbitrage is the practice
of taking advantage of a price difference between two
or more markets striking a combination of matching
deals that capitalize upon the imbalance” Source:
Wikipedia.
Because of the very nature of Bitcoin as a
decentralized currency and the absence of a
centralized marketplace, there are arbitrage
opportunities that exist between the many different
exchanges and trading platforms. For example,
matching order books by buying like amounts of BTC
on Bitfinex and selling same on Kraken. It is necessary
to hold funded accounts and long positions of BTC
across all exchanges and platforms in order to do this
but is a relatively straightforward strategy.
In addition to the above Bitcoin market arbitrage,
there are also currency arbitrage opportunities that
exist between Bitcoin and other Alt-Currencies.
August, 2014

15. Education
So you want to improve your trading by learning more?
You would be wise to adopt the caveat “Consider the
Source”. In short, examine and question the quality,
accuracv and possible agenda of any content that
comes your way.
Here are some general sources of information that are
objective, informative and should improve your trading
knowhow:
Bitcoin Center, NYC: http://nycbitcoincenter.com/
Bitcoin Foundation: https://bitcoin.org/en/
The Bitcoin Wiki: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Main_Page
News & all things BTC: http://www.coindesk.com
Also consider additionally reputable news, data and
information sources, such as Bloomberg, who now
cover Bitcoin at the request of their subscribers.
“Steer clear of Youtube, Webinars, online forums and email
newsletter promoting advice, trading signals or alerts”
August, 2014

16. Special Areas of Concern
Obviously, when trading a new asset class, there
will be a myriad of special considerations and
problems to consider. Here are two rather unique
ones when it comes to Bitcoin:
* Trading BTC is unlike most other inline trading
inasmuch as you can ONLY trade online. Therefore
you are dependent on hardware and network
access. Therefore it is suggested you have access
at all time to two devices AND two separate
internet access options to avoid missing ability to
trade in fast moving markets.
* Beware of “Going Native” and becoming a
Bitcoin “Disciple” This can cloud your judgment
and trading rationale.
August, 2014

17. Putting it all together
There is no doubt that in comparison to other
traditional financial instruments, Bitcoin is mercurial
and hard to define. Is it unlike all that have come
before it as an asset class but despite it’s differences,
there is see nothing in its inherent nature and market
behaviour that suggests that it cannot be traded using
traditional trading techniques along with sound
judgement.
The instrument and ecosystem may be vastly
different, but as traders, it is important to recognize
that the marketplace which Bitcoin occupies has as
all the participants, characteristics and component
parts of other financial markets that have come before
and will probably come after it.
Thus, by following your business plan, doing your
homework and remaining disciplined, one can
successfully trade in Bitcoin.
It is hoped that these pages were of some assistance.
August, 2014

18. INSERT IMAGES
GOOD LUCK TRADING BITCOIN!
“
Don’t forget to watch the
Video!
The 30-minute video “Coining It! A trading
perspective on Bitcoin” based on this
presentation can be viewed on Youtube by
clicking here.
August, 2014

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August, 2014