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欧元兑美元
图 1: 欧元兑美元日线图
图 2: 欧元兑美元周线图 (2013-2015)
图 3: 欧元兑美元周线图
进一步疲软!
日线图上,我们可以看到,该货币对已从年头开始就交易在 1.05649-1.14417 之间。在一周的
开始, 市场预期美国联邦储备局将在周中的息会决定加息,价位开始下调。在加息的确认之后,
销售势头加强。美联储加息 25 个基点,其首次增长自 2006 年以来。这主要是在符合市场预
期。此次加息信号意味着美国经济已经扭转了 2009 年的全球金融危机。不过,耶伦女士谈到
她认为未来加息是不可能均匀分布。那是因为美国经济也不一定就会“均匀”的增长。这句话
显示了下一次的加息可能不会来得那么快。因此,美元的强度可能不会在预期稳步回升。最重
要的是,全球经济一直没有一片光明与增长,亚洲地区放缓显著和石油价格接近其 10 年低。
然而,市场预料下一次加息会在 2016 年六月。
在周线图,它显示了在这一刻时间的盘整阶段。该货币对在周线图上的 20 日均线( 1.10482 )
遇到了阻力 。展望未来,各项技术指标都呈现弱势。相对强弱指数 (RSI)在百分之 44.27 和
平滑异同移动平均(MACD)也开始向下滑落。因此,投资者可以在 1.055-1.06 的价位之间买
进。 这也是近期的支持点与布林通道的下线。
日线图上,销售势头越来越强,趋势向 20 日均线。最有可能走进了布林通道的下段。平滑异
同移动平均(MACD)与相对强弱指数也开始走软,给投资者一个进场的机会。那些能承担多
点风险的投资者可现在卖空,以及在 1.055-1.06 的价位补票。止损放在 20 日均线 1.105。
行动:
卖空在 1.08424 以及在 1.055 普票 => 2.7%
止损在 1.105 => -1.9%
原油
图 4: 原油日线图
图 5:原油周线图
下落的刀!
在日前举行的石油输出国组织会议上,它们重申,将不会减少石油出口量因需保持市场份额。
再加上伊朗的生产可能会增加盈余,并导致库存进一步上升。原油价至本周开始反弹,但却在
周三收到美国能源情报说道国内成品油库存上周上涨了 480 万桶,超出了分析师的预测。分析
师在前预期国内成品油库存会下降。随着全球经济面临放缓,预计原油需求将不会在短期内增
长。那也预料着原油价在短期内也不会有太大的机会回弹。
在技术分析那方面,无论是日线或则是周线图都显示出进一步疲软的趋势。之前在 37.705 元
的支持已经被打破,其结果,已成为近期的阻力。日线图上的平滑异同移动平均(MACD)在一
次失败的跨越上述,在近期内有望继续下滑。周线图确认了这个趋势。在周线图上来看,原油
价已破了下降三角形的支持点,意味着原油价会继续下滑。
在考虑到上述情况,投资者可借此机会卖空。
行动:
卖空在 35 元以及在 33 元普票 => 5.7%
止损在 35.95 元 => -2.7 %
香港 43 指数
图 6:香港 43 指数日线图
图 7:香港 43 指数周线图
没有年终涨势;有机先下后涨!
在香港 43 指数日和周线图表两者来看,指数有望在近期内下降。自五月底,该指数已经开始
产生了一个下降的趋势。在过去的几个交易日,指数上演了一出技术性的反弹,并测试了 20
日均线但未能信服地穿过均线,并开始拉回下降通道了。在日线图表上,平滑异同移动平均
(MACD)已有往下滑的迹象。相对强弱指数 (RSI)处于在百分之43.86,还离超卖区有点距离。
照周线图表看来,也有同样熊市的趋势。指数有望在近期内向 20100 点的支持线滑去。
行动:
卖空在大约 21800 点以及在大约 20100 点普票 => 5.7%
止损在大约 22245 点 => -2.7 %

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