The document summarizes concerns about the Conservative Party's planned emergency budget in June 2010, should they take power after the upcoming election. It is estimated the budget will cut £6 billion from the economy in 2010, risking recovery. Specific cuts mentioned include to teachers, police, and reductions to child benefits for families on modest incomes. The document also examines the Conservatives' election promises around tax cuts, estimating their total cost to be over £37 billion over the next parliament. There is a concern that compensating for these tax cuts through other means would burden households with bills of £1,500 each over the same time period.

1. Monday, 19 April 2010

2. JUNE24 George Osborne wants to hold a
budget on 24th June
“We will provide an emergency Budget
within 50 days of taking office.”
p.7, Conservative Party manifesto
Monday, 19 April 2010

3. But he won’t tell the British
public what will be in it.
political tactics
What is the real price of his economic plan?
Monday, 19 April 2010

4. The Tories’ June Budget
Chapter 1: 2010
– £6bn out of the economy in 2010
– Recovery at risk
– Teachers and police cut
– Families on modest incomes lose Child
Trust Fund and Child Tax Credits
Chapter 2: 2011 Onwards
– Implement pre-election tax cut
giveaways
– Including inheritance tax and
marriage allowance
– At last setting out the bill
families will pay
Monday, 19 April 2010

5. Chapter One
2010
Monday, 19 April 2010

6. We’re on the road to recovery
✓GDP rose 0.4% in Q4 of last year
✓Total exports rose by £1.8 billion
(9.5%) to £21.3 billion in February, the
fastest growth for 7 years
✓Unemployment stabilised since
October - over half a million lower
than expected
Monday, 19 April 2010

7. It’s very different from the 90s
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT
CLAIMAINTS
1993 2010
2,930,600 1,585,100
1993 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010

8. It’s very different from the 90s
REPOSSESSION PROPERTIES
REPOSSESSED
1991 2009
75,500 46,000
1991 2009
Monday, 19 April 2010

9. It’s very different from the 90s
BUSINESS INSOLVENCY INSOLVENTS PER CENT OF
BUSINESS INSOLVENCY
REGISTERED BUSINESSES
INSOLVENTS PER CENT OF
1993 2009 REGISTERED BUSINESSES
1993 2009
2.7% 0.9%
2.7%
1993
0.9%
2009
1993 2009
Monday, 19 April 2010

10. But things are still fragile
"A hasty retrenchment would risk pitching the economy into a double dip.”
ITEM Club, 19 April 2010
“Although we are seeing so many encouraging signs of stronger activity, the fragility
of recovery, a frail labour market and possible headwinds coming from financial
markets underscore the need for caution in the removal of policy support.”
OECD Chief Economist, Pier Carlo Padoan, 7 April 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010

11. A dangerous time for cuts
“I made it clear: £6 billion less."
George Osborne, Channel 4 News Online, 1 April 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010

12. 15 April 2010
Sir James Mirrlees Robert Solow
Nobel Laureate & Professor of Political Economy, Nobel Laureate & Emeritus Institute Professor of Economics
University of Cambridge MIT, USA
Sir David Hendry Lord Skidelsky
Professor of Economics, Emeritus Professor of Political Economy, University of Warwick
University of Oxford
Lord Layard
Emeritus Professor of Economics, ...and 74 other signatories
LSE
Monday, 19 April 2010

13. Instant job losses
“The projected £1bn-£2bn savings on the public sector payroll
translates into “roughly 20,000 to 40,000 job losses” ...said Colin Talbot,
professor of public management at Manchester Business School.”
8 April 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010

14. £
CHILDREN, SCHOOLS & FAMILIES
2010
£1.78b
Monday, 19 April 2010
TORY CUTS
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
£810m
BUSINESS, INNOVATION AND SKILLS
£670m
TRANSPORT
£450m
COMMUNITIES
HOME OFFICE
£330m £320m
Cuts would start with immediate effect
JUSTICE
NORTHERN IRELAND
WORK & PENSIONS
TREASURY & HMRC
ENVIRONMENT, FOOD & RURAL AFFAIRS
ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE
CABINET OFFICE
CULTURE, MEDIA & SPORT
FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE

15. EDUCATION
TORY CUTS
6,900 7,300
PRIMARY & NURSERY SECONDARY
FEWER TEACHERS
Tory cuts - schools’ share
Monday, 19 April 2010

16. POLICE
TORY CUTS
FEWER POLICE OFFICERS
Tory cuts - the police’s share
Monday, 19 April 2010

17. Tory family cuts
£t
c u cut
CHILD CHILD
TAX
CREDITS
TRUST
FUND
Monday, 19 April 2010

18. Chapter Two
2011
O N W A R D S
Monday, 19 April 2010

19. 2011 Onwards
The ITEM Club broadly agrees with us that if we make
the right decisions now we can secure strengthening
economic growth for the coming years:
“The forecast shows GDP growing by 2.7% next year and
3.4% in 2012, powered largely by exports and investment.”
ITEM Club, 19 April 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010

20. 2011 Onwards
David Cameron opposed the Government’s action to support the
economy because he said that the deficit was his first priority.
"It's time for this Government to get serious, to put away their
pathetic dividing lines, to put away their moral cowardice in
not dealing with this issue..."
David Cameron, Press Conference, 25 January 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010

21. "Debt is going to be the number one problem
facing the British country."
David Cameron, BBC Radio 5, 24 April 2009
Tory priorities
1. Deficit
2. Rewarding marriage
3. Cider
4. NI contributions
5. Inheritance tax
Monday, 19 April 2010

22. The Conservative leader confirmed that the
£550 million package, which would make four
million married couples £150 a year better off,
was only a start. “I am sure over the course of a
Parliament we would be able to go further.”
David Cameron, Press Association, 10 April 2009
Tory priorities
1. Rewarding marriage
2. Deficit
3. Cider
4. NI contributions
5. Inheritance tax
Monday, 19 April 2010

23. "I thought stopping the cider tax was going to be the
absolute number one priority for the budget negotiations."
George Osborne, Western Morning News, 12 April 2010
Tory priorities
1. Rewarding marriage
2. Cider
3. Deficit
4. NI contributions
5. Inheritance tax
Monday, 19 April 2010

24. “A tax on jobs in a recovery. That is my number one priority.”
George Osborne, Sky News, 23 April 2009
Tory priorities
1. Rewarding marriage
2. Cider
3. NI contributions
4. Deficit
5. Inheritance tax
Monday, 19 April 2010

25. "If you look at what the Conservative Party has said we have not made
pledge after pledge, we’ve made one pledge about inheritance tax."
David Cameron, BBC News, 4 January 2010
Tory priorities
1. Rewarding marriage
2. Cider
3. NI contributions
4. Inheritance tax
5. Deficit
Monday, 19 April 2010

26. Osborne’s election tax giveaways
Continental holiday homes tax relief
£1
Oppose cider duty increase 5m
£15m
Oppose broadband levy
75m
£55 Tax cut for married couples £1
0m
Freeze council tax for 2 years bn
£ 1.4
£1 Inheritance tax cut
.5b Couples’ Working Tax Credit
n
National insurance changes
£3.1b n
Monday, 19 April 2010
£6. 7b n

27. ...and there’s more
??
£?
Dividend tax credit
£?
Fuel duty cut
??
Cancer drugs £? ??
National citizens’ service
Further cuts to corporation tax
£???
£???
Monday, 19 April 2010

28. George Osborne’s £38bn election tax giveaways
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Freeze council tax £0m -£700m -£1,400m -£1,400m -£1,400m
Tax cuts for married couples £0m -£550m -£550m -£550m -£550m
Inheritance tax cut £0m £0m £0m £0m -£1,500m
Raise NIC thresholds £0m -£6,000m -£6,300m -£6,300m -£6,700m
Oppose broadband levy -£90m -£175m -£175m -£175m -£175m
Oppose cider duty -£15m -£15m -£15m -£15m -£15m
Holiday home tax relief £10m -£25m -£15m -£15m -£15m
Couples’ tax credit £0m £0m £0m £0m -£3,100m
Annual cost -£95m -£7,465m -£8,455m -£8,455m -£13,455m
Total cost over Parliament £37,925m
Monday, 19 April 2010

29. To stick to the existing deficit reduction plan the Tories
would have to raise taxes or cut spending to compensate –
hitting each household with a bill for £1,500
over the Parliament.
PS
INVOICE
Bigge
r bills
"We w
i
Budge ll provid
comin
Dear Householder, t e
offic within 5 an emerge
g
e 0 n
Please pay £1,500 for e to set o days of t cy
l ut a
struc iminating credi aking
t t bl
over ural curr he bulk o e plan
a Par e f the
liame nt budget
nt." defic
P.7, it
Conse
rvati
ve Pa
rty m
anife
sto
Monday, 19 April 2010

30. If you vote Tory in May,
you’ll be stung in June
Monday, 19 April 2010