The 2008 crisis has demonstrated the importance of conducting stress tests to prevent banking failure. This exercise has also a significant impact on banks’ capital, organization and image.
This paper aims to provide a methodology that diffuses the stress applied on a credit portfolio while taking into account risk and performance for each rating category.
The content is structured in three parts:
The importance of stress testing and the impacts on reputation
Methodology for a dynamic stress diffusion model
Study on a real SME portfolio showing that the model designed in this paper captures relationship between Gini index and the stress diffusion
Dynamic Stress Test Diffusion Model Considering The Credit Score PerformanceGRATeam
After the crisis of 2008, and the important losses and shortfall in capital that it revealed, regulators conducted massive stress testing exercises in order to test the resilience of financial institutions in times of stress conditions. In this context, and considering the impact of these exercises on the banks’ capital, organization and image, this white paper proposes a methodology that diffuses dynamically the stress on the credit rating scale while considering the performance of the credit score. Consequently, the aim is to more accurately reflect the impact of the stress on the portfolio by taking into account the purity of the score and its ability to precisely rank the individuals of the portfolio.
Only one year after its creation, the GRA team has been completely transformed. Surpassing all of the original ambitions, the team now stretches over three zones (Europe, Asia and the US) and continues to grow.
Our philosophy is distinctly influenced by the gratification of working together on subject matter which daily fascinates and inspires us. It also conveys the richness of our exchanges, as we collaborate with several practitioners and enthusiasts.
This document has no other purpose than to bring some responsive elements to the questions we face constantly, reminding us also to practice patience and humility - for many answers are possible, and the path of discovery stretches out long before us...”
Dynamic Stress Test Diffusion Model Considering The Credit Score PerformanceGRATeam
After the crisis of 2008, and the important losses and shortfall in capital that it revealed, regulators conducted massive stress testing exercises in order to test the resilience of financial institutions in times of stress conditions. In this context, and considering the impact of these exercises on the banks’ capital, organization and image, this white paper proposes a methodology that diffuses dynamically the stress on the credit rating scale while considering the performance of the credit score. Consequently, the aim is to more accurately reflect the impact of the stress on the portfolio by taking into account the purity of the score and its ability to precisely rank the individuals of the portfolio.
Only one year after its creation, the GRA team has been completely transformed. Surpassing all of the original ambitions, the team now stretches over three zones (Europe, Asia and the US) and continues to grow.
Our philosophy is distinctly influenced by the gratification of working together on subject matter which daily fascinates and inspires us. It also conveys the richness of our exchanges, as we collaborate with several practitioners and enthusiasts.
This document has no other purpose than to bring some responsive elements to the questions we face constantly, reminding us also to practice patience and humility - for many answers are possible, and the path of discovery stretches out long before us...”
Optimization of Post-Scoring Classification and Impact on Regulatory Capital ...GRATeam
The 2008 crisis was the main cause of tough market regulation and banks’ consolidation basement. These new constraints have caused a major increase in banks’ capital. As a result, banks need to optimize their return on equity, which has suffered a big drop (due both to a drop in profitability as well as an increase in capital).
Moreover, as this crisis showed loopholes in risk measurement and management, regulators’ tolerance becomes more and more stringent. Consequently, banks are facing challenges while dealing with Low Default Portfolios (LDP) and discerning the way to meet regulatory requirements in terms of credit risk management under the Advanced Approach (IRBA) of Basel rules.
The purpose of this paper is to focus on post-scoring classification for LDPs with the aim to study the possibility of building a rating scale for these portfolios, that meets regulatory requirements as well as to identify the opportunities to optimize RWA. This will be accomplished by studying the relationship between the number of classes within a rating scale and the impact on RWA. The analysis will follow different steps.
Only one year after its creation, the GRA team has been completely transformed.
Surpassing all of the original ambitions, the team now stretches over three zones
(Europe, Asia and the US) and continues to grow.
Our philosophy is distinctly influenced by the gratification of working together on subject matter which daily fascinates and inspires us. It also conveys the richness of our exchanges, as we collaborate with several practitioners and enthusiasts.
This document has no other purpose than to bring some responsive elements to the questions we face constantly, reminding us also to practice patience and humility - for many answers are possible, and the path of discovery stretches out long before us…
Back-testing of Expected Shortfall : Main challenges and methodologies GRATeam
In a context of an ever-changing regulatory environment over the last years, Banks have
witnessed the draft and publication of several regulatory guidelines and requirements in order
to frame and structure their internal Risk Management.
Among these guidelines, one has been specifically designed for the risk measurement of market
activities. In January 2016, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) published
the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB). Amid the multiple evolutions discussed
in this paper, the BCBS presents the technical context in which the potential loss estimation has
changed from a Value-at-Risk (VaR) computation to an Expected Shortfall (ES) evaluation.
The many advantages of an ES measure are not to be demonstrated, however this measure is
also known for its major drawback: its difficulty to be back-tested. Therefore, after recalling
the context around the VaR and ES models, this white paper will review ES back-testing
findings and insights along many methodologies; these have either been drawn from the latest
publications or have been developed by the Global Research & Analytics (GRA) team of
Chappuis Halder & Co.
As a conclusion, it has been observed that the existing methods rely on strong assumptions and
that they may lead to inconsistent results. The developed methodologies proposed in this paper
also show that even though the ES97.5% metric is close to a VaR99,9% metric, it is not as easily
back-tested as a VaR metric; this is mostly due to the non-elicitability of the ES measure.
Key learnings of recent AQR & CCAR exercises suggest that some significant moves are required to fulfill market & regulators expectations.
For Institutions, in the short-term the main challenges are threefold:
- Methodology: quickly adopt and implement new approaches / scenarios proposed by supervisors
- Project implementation: identify work blocks, wisely plan and provide with adequate resources
- Time (submission): submit in time, under tight deadlines and with the appropriate quality of outputs
The Validity of Company Valuation Using Dis.docxchristalgrieg
The Validity of Company Valuation
Using Discounted Cash Flow Methods
Florian Steiger
1
Seminar Paper
Fall 2008
Abstract
This paper closely examines theoretical and practical aspects of the widely used discounted
cash flows (DCF) valuation method. It assesses its potentials as well as several weaknesses. A
special emphasize is being put on the valuation of companies using the DCF method. The
paper finds that the discounted cash flow method is a powerful tool to analyze even complex
situations. However, the DCF method is subject to massive assumption bias and even slight
changes in the underlying assumptions of an analysis can drastically alter the valuation
results. A practical example of these implications is given using a scenario analysis.
____________
1
Author: Florian Steiger, European Business School, e-mail: [email protected]
Table of Contents
List of abbreviations ........................................................................................................... i
List of figures and tables ................................................................................................... ii
1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Problem Definition and Objective ...................................................................... 1
1.2 Course of the Investigation ................................................................................. 2
2 Company valuation ....................................................................................................... 2
2.1 General Goal and Use of Company Valuation ................................................... 2
2.2 Other Valuation Methods ................................................................................... 3
3 The Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Method ............................................................ 4
3.1 Approach of the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation ............................................ 4
3.2 Calculation of the Free Cash Flow ..................................................................... 5
3.2.1 Cash Flow to Firm and Cash Flow to Equity.................................................. 5
3.2.2 Building Future Scenarios .............................................................................. 6
3.3 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital ............................................................. 6
3.3.1 Cost of Equity ................................................................................................. 7
3.3.2 Cost of Debt .................................................................................................... 8
3.3.3 Summary ......................................................................................................... 9
3.4 Calculation of the Terminal Value ................................................... ...
How to manage Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book considering the monetary...Ziad Fares
The past few years have seen central banks use unconventional tools to stimulate an economy that has kept on struggling since the 2008 crisis. In order to avoid deflation and other economic turmoil, the FED launched a massive bond-buying program called the Quantitative Easing (QE). After the American “experiment”, the ECB launched a similar program early march 2015 as an emergency stimulus to a weakened economy. Such unconventional monetary policy has an impact on interest rates, and therefore, requires a closer monitoring of the Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB). In such a context, this white paper focuses on understanding how current market conditions (low interest rates) can affect banks’ revenues and profitability while discussing and analyzing the impacts of any changes of the term structure of yield curves on the Net Interest Income. Additionally, as regulators are taking a closer look on how to capture (and cover) the IRRBB, this white paper provides a methodology for measuring the IRRBB and analyzes, via simulations on a real portfolio, the impacts of interest rate moves on the Economic Value of Equity and the Earnings at Risk.
Key learnings of recent AQR & CCAR exercises suggest that some significant moves are required to fulfil market & regulators expectations. In this context, CH&Cie is pleased to share with you the latest developments in implementing stress testing as well as best practices
Rwa density what lies behind this underrated financial ratioLéonard Brie
The objective of this article is to provide a new angle to the study of RWA density. The worth of this ratio, created and largely used by financial analysts, has long been underestimated by banks. Yet as analyses show, this tool may enable a more subtle approach to risk appraisal within a financial institution.
The first part of this article will cover the origins of the ratio and the history of its use in financial analysis. The second part will showcase its characteristics and behavioural traits (including during stress periods), exemplified through a number of theoretical tests. It will be followed by a cross-analysis of the ratio with other indicators that will help underline the informative and predictive value of RWA density.
Finally, the last two parts of the article will put the theoretical value of RWA density to the test, by conducting a practical analysis of its behaviour in Europe over the 2012-2014 period.
The conclusion will appraise the usage and evolution needed to improve and refine the ratio, in order to monitor scarce resources.
In spring 2016, PwC investigated the current state and
future direction of stress testing. We surveyed 55 insurers
operating in the US about their stress testing framework and
the specific stresses that they test. We also engaged in more
detailed dialogue with a number of insurers in the US and
globally, as well as with some North American insurance
regulators.
RWA Density | What Lies Behind This Underrated Financial RatioGRATeam
The objective of this article is to provide a new angle to the study of RWA density. The worth of this ratio, created and largely used by financial analysts, has long been underestimated by banks. Yet as analyses show, this tool may enable a more subtle approach to risk appraisal within a financial institution.
The first part of this article will cover the origins of the ratio and the history of its use in financial analysis. The second part will showcase its characteristics and behavioural traits (including during stressperiods), exemplified through a number of theoretical tests. It will be followed by a cross-analysis of the ratio with other indicators that will help underline the informative and predictive value of RWA density.
Finally, the last two parts of the article will putthe theoretical value of RWA density to the test, by conducting a practical analysis of its behaviour in Europe over the 2012-2014 period.
The conclusion will appraise the usage and evolution needed to improve and refine the ratio, in order to monitor scarce resources.
EAD Parameter : A stochastic way to model the Credit Conversion FactorGenest Benoit
This white paper aims at estimating credit risk by modelling the Credit Conversion Factor (CCF) parameter related to the Exposure-at-Default (EAD). It has been decided to perform the estimation thanks to stochastic processes instead of usual statistical methodologies (such as classification tree or GLM).
Our paper will focus on two types of model: the Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) model – part of ARMA model types – and the Geometric Brownian Movement (GBM) model. First, we will describe, then implement and calibrate each model to ensure relevance and robustness of our results. Then, we will focus on GBM model to model CCF.
Optimization of Post-Scoring Classification and Impact on Regulatory Capital ...GRATeam
The 2008 crisis was the main cause of tough market regulation and banks’ consolidation basement. These new constraints have caused a major increase in banks’ capital. As a result, banks need to optimize their return on equity, which has suffered a big drop (due both to a drop in profitability as well as an increase in capital).
Moreover, as this crisis showed loopholes in risk measurement and management, regulators’ tolerance becomes more and more stringent. Consequently, banks are facing challenges while dealing with Low Default Portfolios (LDP) and discerning the way to meet regulatory requirements in terms of credit risk management under the Advanced Approach (IRBA) of Basel rules.
The purpose of this paper is to focus on post-scoring classification for LDPs with the aim to study the possibility of building a rating scale for these portfolios, that meets regulatory requirements as well as to identify the opportunities to optimize RWA. This will be accomplished by studying the relationship between the number of classes within a rating scale and the impact on RWA. The analysis will follow different steps.
Only one year after its creation, the GRA team has been completely transformed.
Surpassing all of the original ambitions, the team now stretches over three zones
(Europe, Asia and the US) and continues to grow.
Our philosophy is distinctly influenced by the gratification of working together on subject matter which daily fascinates and inspires us. It also conveys the richness of our exchanges, as we collaborate with several practitioners and enthusiasts.
This document has no other purpose than to bring some responsive elements to the questions we face constantly, reminding us also to practice patience and humility - for many answers are possible, and the path of discovery stretches out long before us…
Back-testing of Expected Shortfall : Main challenges and methodologies GRATeam
In a context of an ever-changing regulatory environment over the last years, Banks have
witnessed the draft and publication of several regulatory guidelines and requirements in order
to frame and structure their internal Risk Management.
Among these guidelines, one has been specifically designed for the risk measurement of market
activities. In January 2016, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) published
the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB). Amid the multiple evolutions discussed
in this paper, the BCBS presents the technical context in which the potential loss estimation has
changed from a Value-at-Risk (VaR) computation to an Expected Shortfall (ES) evaluation.
The many advantages of an ES measure are not to be demonstrated, however this measure is
also known for its major drawback: its difficulty to be back-tested. Therefore, after recalling
the context around the VaR and ES models, this white paper will review ES back-testing
findings and insights along many methodologies; these have either been drawn from the latest
publications or have been developed by the Global Research & Analytics (GRA) team of
Chappuis Halder & Co.
As a conclusion, it has been observed that the existing methods rely on strong assumptions and
that they may lead to inconsistent results. The developed methodologies proposed in this paper
also show that even though the ES97.5% metric is close to a VaR99,9% metric, it is not as easily
back-tested as a VaR metric; this is mostly due to the non-elicitability of the ES measure.
Key learnings of recent AQR & CCAR exercises suggest that some significant moves are required to fulfill market & regulators expectations.
For Institutions, in the short-term the main challenges are threefold:
- Methodology: quickly adopt and implement new approaches / scenarios proposed by supervisors
- Project implementation: identify work blocks, wisely plan and provide with adequate resources
- Time (submission): submit in time, under tight deadlines and with the appropriate quality of outputs
The Validity of Company Valuation Using Dis.docxchristalgrieg
The Validity of Company Valuation
Using Discounted Cash Flow Methods
Florian Steiger
1
Seminar Paper
Fall 2008
Abstract
This paper closely examines theoretical and practical aspects of the widely used discounted
cash flows (DCF) valuation method. It assesses its potentials as well as several weaknesses. A
special emphasize is being put on the valuation of companies using the DCF method. The
paper finds that the discounted cash flow method is a powerful tool to analyze even complex
situations. However, the DCF method is subject to massive assumption bias and even slight
changes in the underlying assumptions of an analysis can drastically alter the valuation
results. A practical example of these implications is given using a scenario analysis.
____________
1
Author: Florian Steiger, European Business School, e-mail: [email protected]
Table of Contents
List of abbreviations ........................................................................................................... i
List of figures and tables ................................................................................................... ii
1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Problem Definition and Objective ...................................................................... 1
1.2 Course of the Investigation ................................................................................. 2
2 Company valuation ....................................................................................................... 2
2.1 General Goal and Use of Company Valuation ................................................... 2
2.2 Other Valuation Methods ................................................................................... 3
3 The Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Method ............................................................ 4
3.1 Approach of the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation ............................................ 4
3.2 Calculation of the Free Cash Flow ..................................................................... 5
3.2.1 Cash Flow to Firm and Cash Flow to Equity.................................................. 5
3.2.2 Building Future Scenarios .............................................................................. 6
3.3 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital ............................................................. 6
3.3.1 Cost of Equity ................................................................................................. 7
3.3.2 Cost of Debt .................................................................................................... 8
3.3.3 Summary ......................................................................................................... 9
3.4 Calculation of the Terminal Value ................................................... ...
How to manage Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book considering the monetary...Ziad Fares
The past few years have seen central banks use unconventional tools to stimulate an economy that has kept on struggling since the 2008 crisis. In order to avoid deflation and other economic turmoil, the FED launched a massive bond-buying program called the Quantitative Easing (QE). After the American “experiment”, the ECB launched a similar program early march 2015 as an emergency stimulus to a weakened economy. Such unconventional monetary policy has an impact on interest rates, and therefore, requires a closer monitoring of the Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB). In such a context, this white paper focuses on understanding how current market conditions (low interest rates) can affect banks’ revenues and profitability while discussing and analyzing the impacts of any changes of the term structure of yield curves on the Net Interest Income. Additionally, as regulators are taking a closer look on how to capture (and cover) the IRRBB, this white paper provides a methodology for measuring the IRRBB and analyzes, via simulations on a real portfolio, the impacts of interest rate moves on the Economic Value of Equity and the Earnings at Risk.
Key learnings of recent AQR & CCAR exercises suggest that some significant moves are required to fulfil market & regulators expectations. In this context, CH&Cie is pleased to share with you the latest developments in implementing stress testing as well as best practices
Rwa density what lies behind this underrated financial ratioLéonard Brie
The objective of this article is to provide a new angle to the study of RWA density. The worth of this ratio, created and largely used by financial analysts, has long been underestimated by banks. Yet as analyses show, this tool may enable a more subtle approach to risk appraisal within a financial institution.
The first part of this article will cover the origins of the ratio and the history of its use in financial analysis. The second part will showcase its characteristics and behavioural traits (including during stress periods), exemplified through a number of theoretical tests. It will be followed by a cross-analysis of the ratio with other indicators that will help underline the informative and predictive value of RWA density.
Finally, the last two parts of the article will put the theoretical value of RWA density to the test, by conducting a practical analysis of its behaviour in Europe over the 2012-2014 period.
The conclusion will appraise the usage and evolution needed to improve and refine the ratio, in order to monitor scarce resources.
In spring 2016, PwC investigated the current state and
future direction of stress testing. We surveyed 55 insurers
operating in the US about their stress testing framework and
the specific stresses that they test. We also engaged in more
detailed dialogue with a number of insurers in the US and
globally, as well as with some North American insurance
regulators.
RWA Density | What Lies Behind This Underrated Financial RatioGRATeam
The objective of this article is to provide a new angle to the study of RWA density. The worth of this ratio, created and largely used by financial analysts, has long been underestimated by banks. Yet as analyses show, this tool may enable a more subtle approach to risk appraisal within a financial institution.
The first part of this article will cover the origins of the ratio and the history of its use in financial analysis. The second part will showcase its characteristics and behavioural traits (including during stressperiods), exemplified through a number of theoretical tests. It will be followed by a cross-analysis of the ratio with other indicators that will help underline the informative and predictive value of RWA density.
Finally, the last two parts of the article will putthe theoretical value of RWA density to the test, by conducting a practical analysis of its behaviour in Europe over the 2012-2014 period.
The conclusion will appraise the usage and evolution needed to improve and refine the ratio, in order to monitor scarce resources.
EAD Parameter : A stochastic way to model the Credit Conversion FactorGenest Benoit
This white paper aims at estimating credit risk by modelling the Credit Conversion Factor (CCF) parameter related to the Exposure-at-Default (EAD). It has been decided to perform the estimation thanks to stochastic processes instead of usual statistical methodologies (such as classification tree or GLM).
Our paper will focus on two types of model: the Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) model – part of ARMA model types – and the Geometric Brownian Movement (GBM) model. First, we will describe, then implement and calibrate each model to ensure relevance and robustness of our results. Then, we will focus on GBM model to model CCF.