8. Sources: Reuters and ZeroHedge, Bloomberg 2013
Where is all the Inventory?
Blackstone 45,000 SFH
Carrington 25,000 SFH
Colony America 9,931 SFH
Silver 5,000 SFH
Tricon Capital 4,000 SFH CA, FL, AZ
3,600 SFH AZ, house in last 5 yearsIL, CA,
IN, NC, GA, FL
PLUS Billions more raised to
buy SFH foreclosures and REO’s
17. With relatively little fanfare, the stock market has become expensive again.
While the rest of economy has been growing frustratingly slowly for almost
five years, stocks have been rising at a boomlike clip. An investment in the
Standard & Poor 500-stock index would have doubled from early 2009
through early 2013 and then gained an additional 18 percent over the last
year.
Relative to long-term corporate earnings – and more in a minute on why
that measure is important – stocks have been more expensive only three
times over the past century than they are today, according to data from
Robert Shiller, a Nobel laureate in economics. Those other three periods are
not exactly reassuring, either: the 1920s, the late 1990s and in the prelude
to the 2007 financial crisis.
Wall Street, of course, can always come up with justifications for high stock
prices. Remember: The Internet changes everything. Or: The business cycle
has been repealed. Some of the current justifications even have a ring of
reality to them.
Time to Worry About Stock Market Bubbles
MAY 6, 2014
Nobel Laureate in Economics: Stocks have
been more expensive only three time in the
last century: the 1920’s, the late 1990’s and in
the prelude to the 2007 financial crisis
18. Realtytrac, Bloomberg, Wall Street
analysts and Bernanke projected
waves of foreclosures starting in 2012
but it never happened:
1. Short sales
2. Selling non-performing loans
19. Short Sales Completed, REO
Inventories & Primary Market
Delinquent Notes
50,000.00
1,050,000.00
2,050,000.00
3,050,000.00
4,050,000.00
5,050,000.00
2008 2009 2010 2012 2014
NPL
REO
Short Sales
Source: Compiled information from Lawler, Calculated Risk, Realtytrac,
Corelogic, Black Knight Financial Services
21. What it Takes to Buy Notes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Knowledge
Minimum
Standard
Leveraging Colonial’s Resources is KEY!
Interest Time
22. Two Types of
Discounted Notes
Non-
Performing
Notes
Performing
Notes
Seller Financed
Re-performing
Non-Performing
23. What Determines Note’s Value?
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Performing Notes
Re-Performing Note Cost 70% plus
Defaulted Note Cost 20%-50%
Non-Performing Notes
25. This house represents all the
houses in the United States that
are on the REO housing market.
APPROXIMATELY 400,000
For every REO, there
are 25 notes in
some stage of
default behind the
scenes.
REO’s vs. Notes
26. REO's vs. NOTES
400,000 REOs
9 Million
Delinquent
Real Estate
Notes
Inventory of Opportunity
31. Case Study
Property:
Stone Mountain,
GA
Current Market Value:
$100,000
FTC DISCLAIMER: While these case studies are REAL DEALS that my students have
closed recently, these results are NOT typical. As with all courses, you should not
expect to make this much money or any money with “how-to” advice.
33. Own Note Without Having to Manage
ItLoan Servicer
• Collects Pmts
• Taxes / Insurance
• Borrower Work-out
• Foreclosure Mgt
Note Owner
Work done by
Who??
34. • 4/2, 1,800 sf
• Rent $1,250/mo
“I didn’t need a calculator to pull the
trigger on this one!”
Total Cost approx $30,000
Property worth
$100,000…with creative
financing
55. More than just income today…
Tax Free Income For Life
Performing
Notes
Non-Performing
Notes
Formula for zero taxes in retirement:
Notes + Roth IRA/401K = Tax Free Income for Life
57. What Determines Note’s Value?
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Good Payment Record
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bad Payment Record
Re-Performing Note Cost 70% plus
Defaulted Note Cost 20% - 50%
Performing Notes
Non-Performing Notes
62. Case Study
Owner Occupied
FTC DISCLAIMER: While these case studies are REAL DEALS that my
students have closed recently, these results are NOT typical. As with all
courses, you should not expect to make this much money or any money with
“how-to” advice.
Property:
Hallowell, KS
Current Market Value:
$56,000
64. Mortgage Note
$34,616.49
At 9% Interest
Pmt / $375
158 Mos Remain
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV
$59,250
158
Times!
11% Return
You Pay
$31,233
66. Own Note Without Having to Manage It
Loan Servicer
• Collects Pmts
•Taxes / Insurance
• Licensed & Compliant
• Borrower Work-out
Work done
by Who??
271 Months
67. Term of Note
Loan Servicer
Monthly Pmts
Note Owner
one time fee = $150
*Industry average is around $25
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV
Payment minus
Servicing fee*
68.
69. Cash Flow with Real Estate
Notes
Mortgage
NOTE
YOU
Mortgage
NOTE
Mortgage
NOTE
Mortgage
NOTE
Mortgage
NOTE
Mortgage
NOTE
Mortgage
NOTE
10 notes x $600/ea = $6,000/month
73. Mortgage Note
$100,000
@ 10% Interest
Pmt / $878
360 Mos Remain
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV
$316,080
360
Times!
14.8% Return
You Pay
$70,000
74. 100,000 @ 10% Pmt / $878 30 year term
Loan Amortized
Jan 2014 Dec 2044360 pmts
TIMELINE
Invested with Self Directed IRA = $70,000
82. 100,000 @ 10% Pmt / $878 30 year term
Loan Amortized
Jan 2014 Dec 2044360 pmts
TIMELINERoth Sells Front End
to Investor
Own Back-end
in Roth Acct
Roth Buys Entire Term
83. 100,000 @ 10% Pmt / $878 30 year term
Loan Amortized
Jan 2014 Dec 2044
$69,900
11 yrs 19 yrs
$100
30 Years
$70,000
84. TIMELINE
100,000 @ 10% Pmt / $878 30 year term
Loan Amortized
Jan 2014 Dec 2044360 pmts
Roth Sells Front End
to Investor
Own Back-end
in Roth AcctRoth Buys Entire
Term
85. Sell Partial & Own Back-End of Note
$69,900
132 Pmts
Sold to
Investor
TIMELINE
$100 in Roth Acct
You Keep
Remaining 228
Pmts
100,000 @ 10% Pmt / $878 30 year term
10% Return HUGE Return
89. You’ll learn how to . . .
• How to get Note Sellers
• Work-out Strategies
• Government Funds Avaialble
• Property analysis & determining the value
• Different types of Defaulted Notes
• Lien positions and title reports
92. You’ll learn how to . . .
• Marketing To Attract More Clients
• Create Alternative Cash Flows
• Negotiations To Close More Deals
• Steer Clear of Legal Issues
• Math To Pocket More Profits
• How Partials Work
• Much More
94. Each class has 12 + Events Annually
• Arlington, TX: Oct 3rd – 5th
• Charlotte, NC: Nov 14th – 16th
• Atlanta, GA: Dec 12th – 14th
• Ft Lauderdale, FL: Oct 10th –
12th
• Irving, TX: Nov 21st – 23rd
• Los Angeles, CA: Dec 5th – 7th