Assessing the sales margins in new business models (SAAS, e-commerce) Bryo Leuven 23/05/2015

© All Rights by InCoPro BVBA BE 0 877.807.636
InCoPro@skynet.be +32 473/38 16 13
InCoPro –D4M
Design for Margin D4M
Data to Information, Insights And Impact D2iii
FINANCIAL ESSENTIALS
FOR STARTUPS
Assessing the sales margins in
new business models
Workshop 3, Business plans, Bryo Leuven 23/05/May 2015
24 mei 20151

Our Journey:
• Some theoretical concepts
– What make accounting difficult: or the difference between cash and profit
– The accounting canvas, the roadmap of our Fin. Plan
– The estimation of your Margin: it’s all about the margin
– Some Metrics for defining and controlling Margin with focus on SAAS
– Wrap up on margin
• New business models and the impact on working capital
– Typology of cash-models
– Impact from License model to SAAS model on Cash
– Impact of the SAAS on investments and cash
• Platformization in BtoB market is at least as important as in BtoC
and P2P.
• Some general advises for Starters
2

InCoPro –D4M
Some theoretical concepts
from praxis
3

What is Profit?
4
1 Profit in terms of Cash:
+ All income received
- All expenses paid
= “Profit” is what lays in the register at the end or the balance of your bank account
Focus on short term, cash flow, solvency,
Will I be able to pay everything at a specific period of time?
2 Profit in terms of accounting results
+ All period related revenues (independent from being actually received)
-All period costs (independent from being paid to)
= “ profit” of the period, or focus on profitability of the operations
Focus on long term cash flow, solvency,
Will I be able to generate enough profit pay back may investors,
to finance growth and and being sustainable in the longer run.

The accounting canvas:
The roadmap of our Fin. Plan
24 mei 2015 5
Cash PLANNING:
Not Cash Flow but all cash
movement
Planning of bank account
Moment of Payment
Start cash position:
+ Cash Receipts
Revenue
(VAT issue)
Equity
Loans (granted)
Disinvestments
- Cash out
Paying costs (VAT
Issue)
Investments (assets)
Payback of loans
Interest loans
Tax
End Balance of cash
INVESTERINGSPLAN
Immaterial Assets
Material Assets
Financial Assets
Working capital
On Active side: my
properties acquired
Exploitation BUDGET
(P&L)
Sales
Purchase direct
Sales Margin
Indirect cost
EBITDA (cash result)
non- cash movements
Depreciations (Mat.)
Amortizations (Imm. )
Impairments ( value
corrections, ex. bad
debts)
EBIT
Financing costs
Corporate TAX
Results (Bottom Line)FINANCIERINGSPLAN
Capital
Equity
Reserves
Retained Profit/Loss
Debts:
Loans/leasing
Are at the passive side
of the balance: How
paying my properties?
Revenue planning
Pricing models
Volume planning
Cash flow models
Segmentation
Seasonality
Growth /”Hauchlauf”
Direct Costs (Variable)
Direct purchase
Sub-contractors
Sales efforts
Segmentation
Seasonality
Growth /”Hauchlauf”
Break-Even point:
Minimal operational
activities / sales
volume
How many constraint
units we have to sell to
get enough margin to
cover fix costs?
Balance sheet (BS)
State of all property,
assets and liabilities,
or the state of your
wealth
Indirect Cost (Fix)
Indirect staff
Marketing
Overhead
Insurance
Finance cost
Taxes
Cash flow statement
(CS)
Represent the
change in your cash
position from one
period to the other
based on the
balance sheet
movements and
their impact on your
cash position.

More in one of our next session on
The Financial Essentials for Startups
6
Next Session
Probably end of
August begin of
September
2015:
4 hours course
4 hours starting
your plan

Cashplanning
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Start positie 0 30 000 29 604 1 267 13 788 52 879 45 723 29 943 17 504 31 676 30 963 18 545 28 461 2015
Revenue 0
Income Clients 49 050 60 000 10 000 10 000 25 000 37 500 20 000 16 000 25 000 12 500 265 050
VAT on invoice 21% 10 301 12 600 2 100 2 100 5 250 7 875 4 200 3 360 5 250 2 625 55 661
Directe cost
Direct cost -22 500 -30 000 -7 500 -7 500 -15 000 -22 500 -15 000 -12 000 -15 000 -7 500 -7 500 -162 000
VAT on invoice 15% 0 -3 375 -4 500 -1 125 -1 125 -2 250 -3 375 -2 250 -1 800 -2 250 -1 125 -1 125 -24 300
Indirect Cost
Staff -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -6 300 -69 300
Other -4 192 -4 077 -5 318 -2 567 -2 567 -3 817 -5 067 -2 567 -3 817 -3 067 -3 067 -40 120
VAT on invoice 15% -1 574 -1 557 -1 743 -1 330 -1 330 -1 518 -1 705 -1 330 -1 518 -1 405 -1 405 -16 413
VAT on invoice
VAT balance 0 0 0 -11 128 0 0 -4 297 0 0 -1 957 0 0 -17 383
Bank and Finance costs
Interest -153 -153 -153 -153 -157 -157 -189 -189 -192 -196 -196 -196 -2 083
Investeringen
Notary + Accountant -1 500 -1 500
Startup Acc + KBO etc -1 500 -1 500
IP -50 000 -50 000
Licenses -15 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -15 000
Computer -1 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 500 0 0 0 -3 000
Office Furniture -2 000 0 0 0 -2 000 0 0 0 0 -1 000 0 0 -5 000
Car 0 0 0 0 0 0 -15 000 0 0 0 0 0 -15 000
Financing
Equity 83 000 83 000
Loan start 0
Loan1 Licenses 15 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 000
Loan2 PC 1 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 500 0 0 0 3 000
Loan3 furniture 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 0 0 0 0 1 000 0 0 5 000
Loan5 Car 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 000 0 0 0 0 0 15 000
Loan Pay Back
Loan1 Licenses -179 -179 -179 -179 -179 -179 -179 -179 -179 -179 -179 -179 -2 143
Loan2 PC -31 -31 -31 -31 -31 -31 -31 -31 -63 -63 -63 -63 -500
Loan3 furniture -33 -33 -33 -33 -67 -67 -67 -67 -67 -83 -83 -83 -717
Loan4 Car 0 0 0 0 0 0 -417 -417 -417 -417 -417 -417 -2 500
Credit line 0
Creditline for #### 10 000 10 000
Wijziging operations 30 000 29 604 1 267 13 788 52 879 45 723 29 943 17 504 31 676 30 963 18 545 28 461 23 252 23 252

Cash and Profit
Cash thinking Let’s go back to basics:
The cash register of the butcher.
What is in, is cash, what you don’t find in, is called
bookkeeping.
Cash thinking is simple.
Why do accountants made it so difficult?
Van Doorselaere CEO Van de Velde Schellebelle
8

Cash Conversion Cycle: Cash is King
9
CASH
(in)direct Material (A/P)
Investments (A/P)
People (Payroll)
Inventory
Customers (A/R)
Collection Purchases
ConversionSales
CASHLoans
Grants
Capital
Taxes
Dividends
Repay/intrests
Shareholders
Banks/others
Gov / ...
Shareholders
Banks
Government
OperationalNon-Operational

Operational cash conversion
cycle or Working Capital
10
Purchase
Accounts
Payable
Suppliers
Payment
Bank
Working Capital needs:
Customer Receivables – Suppliers Payables + Inventory
Inventory
+ Added Value
Sale
Accounts
Receivable
Customer
Payment
Bank

The focus of working capital
never ends.
• Proximus groeit 5,5 procent
• De opbrengsten stijgen 5,5 procent,
• de courante bedrijfskasstroom neemt met 3,8 procent
toe.
• Veel meer werkkapitaal nodig
Zoals dividendzoekers weten, zit er echter een prijskaartje aan
de groei van Proximus. De vrije kasstroom daalde spectaculair
van 119 miljoen naar 8 miljoen euro door hogere
investeringsuitgaven en een gestegen behoefte aan
werkkapitaal. Er was onder meer extra werkkapitaal nodig om
de voorraden aan te vullen na de eindejaarscampagne van
2014 en door een stijging van de handelsvorderingen, preciseert
Proximus.
11

First Estimate: of Margin
12
• Revenue = Avg Price (€) per sales unit X quantity of sales units
• COGS: Avg variable or direct cost (€) per sales unit X quantity of
sales units (COGS:cost of goods sold)
• Margin: Revenue - COGS
Sales unit: number of visitors, orders, order lines, baskets etc.
Judged to covering fix-costs and bottom line profit targets in a
Break-eve Analysis
Profit: Revenue- Costs
Profit: Revenue- COGS– Fix Cost
Profit: Margin –Fix Cost
Profit: (P x Q) –(COGS x Q) - Fix
Profit: Q x (P - COGS)- Fix

Break-even analysis
• Break-Even (the intersection of turnover and total
costs) -> TURNOVER = TOTAL COSTS
 SALESPRICE PER PIECE x AMOUNT OF PIECES =
TOTAL COST
 SALESPRICE PER PIECE x AMOUNT OF PIECES =
VARIABLE COST + FIXED COST
Classic: FIXED COST/ variable costs
New Economy: indirect /direct costs
• Margin:/Costs per key-unit:
• Key Unit Bottleneck or constraint unit
Fixed Costs (indirect costs)
Break-even point: -------------------------------------
Margin / constraint unit
(Turnover - Direct. Costs )
Margin / constraint unit -------------------------------
Constraint volume
Conclusion:
Margin per bottleneck unit =
the key element. D4M is key!

It is all about The Long Tail
14
- Low volume, huge customer base
- Nearly no transaction cost
- Low specific development cost
- High End Margins
- Transaction cost
marginal in total price

The relative impact of price changes
on Revenue and Margin
Conclusion:
In high volume, small margin sectors (Long Tail) has relative small
increase of the sales price a huge impact on the relative
incremental evolution of the margin.
P Q Prijsverhoging
Omzet 10,0 € 1.000 10.000 100% 1,0% 10.100 100%
Cost 9,5 € 1.000 9.500 95% 9.500 94%
Marge 0,5 € 1.000 500 5% 20,0% 600 6%
Omzet 10,0 € 1.000 10.000 100% 1,0% 10.100 100%
Cost 9,1 € 1.000 9.100 91% 9.100 90%
Marge 0,9 € 1.000 900 9% 11,1% 1.000 10%
Omzet 10,0 € 1.000 10.000 100% 1,0% 10.100 100%
Cost 8,0 € 1.000 8.000 80% 8.000 79%
Marge 2,0 € 1.000 2.000 20% 5,0% 2.100 21%
Omzet 10,0 € 1.000 10.000 100% 1,0% 10.100 100%
Cost 7,0 € 1.000 7.000 70% 7.000 69%
Marge 3,0 € 1.000 3.000 30% 3,3% 3.100 31%
P Q Prijsdaling
Omzet 10,0 € 1 000 10 000 100% -1,0% 9 900 98%
Cost 9,5 € 1 000 9 500 95% 9 500 94%
Marge 0,5 € 1 000 500 5% -20,0% 400 4%
Omzet 10,0 € 1 000 10 000 100% -1,0% 9 900 98%
Cost 9,0 € 1 000 9 000 90% 9 000 89%
Marge 1,0 € 1 000 1 000 10% -10,0% 900 9%
Omzet 10,0 € 1 000 10 000 100% -1,0% 9 900 98%
Cost 8,0 € 1 000 8 000 80% 8 000 79%
Marge 2,0 € 1 000 2 000 20% -5,0% 1 900 19%
Omzet 10,0 € 1 000 10 000 100% -1,0% 9 900 98%
Cost 7,0 € 1 000 7 000 70% 7 000 69%
Marge 3,0 € 1 000 3 000 30% -3,3% 2 900 29%

The absolute impact of price
changes on Revenue and Margin
Prijsdaling en hoeveel volume groei nodig
P Q
Omzet 10,0 € 1 000 10 000 100% -1,0% 9,9 € 1 250 12 375 100%
Cost 9,5 € 1 000 9 500 95% 0,0% 9,5 € 1 250 11 875 95%
Marge 0,5 € 1 000 500 5% -20,0% 0,4 € 25% 1 250 500 5%
Omzet 10,0 € 1 000 10 000 100% -1,0% 9,9 € 1 111 11 000 -28%
Cost 9,0 € 1 000 9 000 90% 0,0% 9,0 € 1 111 10 000 -76%
Marge 1,0 € 1 000 1 000 10% -10,0% 0,9 € 11% 1 111 1 000 -123%
Omzet 10,0 € 1 000 10 000 100% -1,0% 9,9 € 1 053 10 421 -28%
Cost 8,0 € 1 000 8 000 80% 0,0% 8,0 € 1 053 8 421 -76%
Marge 2,0 € 1 000 2 000 20% -5,0% 1,9 € 5,3% 1 053 2 000 -123%
Omzet 10,0 € 1 000 10 000 100% -1,0% 9,9 € 1 034 10 241 -28%
Cost 7,0 € 1 000 7 000 70% 0,0% 7,0 € 1 034 7 241 -76%
Marge 3,0 € 1 000 3 000 30% -3,3% 2,9 € 3,4% 1 034 3 000 -123%
Conclusion:
By low margin products, a relative small decrease of prices, can
only be compensated with a relative big increase in volumes to
maintain the absolute margin.

Margin estimation:
Easy said difficult in praxis
Complexity: Q &P & Cogs
• Product mix
• Market segments (geographic, types etc.)
• Distributions segments (online, shop in shop, direct/indirect,
commissions etc.)
• conversion rates: sales funnel (Prospects-> Customers)
Sensitivity analysises are helping to distinguish.
The difference is made in the details of a business.
You don’t have to know all details but you have to know which
detail you have to know in detail.
17
Profit: Q x (P - COGS)- Fix
Margin: Q x(P-CoGS)

Types of products in a SAAS
• Software license
• Pay as use (consumption)
• Services
• Maintenance
• Education
• Support
• Space
• Etc.
18

Segmentation with focus on
margin is key
19

Some statements about
segmentation and growth
• Your best customers spend to 30x more than the Avg
• Your best customers spend to 5x more per order
- > focus on adopting tactics to increase average
order value -> clear opportunity
• The typical online store gets 43% of revenue from
repeat purchases,
-> put enough to encourage repeat buying?
• Getting the first $1 million of revenue is hard.
• Relative growth is one, but absolute growth the other.
The more mature the lower the growth rate but the
absolute value of growth is still impressive.
20

The sales funnel process:
Remark: what with VAT? Included or Not?
21
Jan Feb Mrt Apr
Number of communication readers 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000
conversion 10% 20% 25% 30%
Number of Webpage visitors 1 000 4 000 7 500 12 000
conversion 10% 15% 10% 20%
Effective buyers 100 600 750 2 400
Number of orders (conversion) 1 2 2 4
Number of products 100 1 200 1 500 9 600
Avg Value of an orderline/item 10 € 10 € 10 € 10 €
Revenu 1 000 € 12 000 € 15 000 € 96 000 €

InCoPro@skynet.be +32 473/38 16 13 22
Don’t forget the VAT
consequences for
your listed Prices and
in your Cash
planning.
Be happy, from now
on you may play Tax
collector.
What with VAT?

The Customer Lifecycle buckets:
• Acquisition:
• Conversion:
• Retention:
• Reactivation:
• Relative market share
Growth activities along the
customer lifecycle
23

Churn a key metric in long tail
businesses
Definition:
• the number of customers churning in a period
• the amount of revenue you lose from those customers
in that period.
24

Churn a key metric in long tail
businesses
Some difficulties with determination of the measurement
period:
– It should be large enough to minimize huge
variance.
– It shouldn’t be overly long.
– Seasonality
– the effect grows becoming a matured company.
25

Churn and
Customer activation
• Customers are signing up and paying, not “fully
activated” and fall-out unsatisfied.
• The longer-term customers, the happy ones who are
successfully using your product, who suddenly quit
your platform.
• What is churn and what not? The only way to get clear
insights is detailed analysis and goods segmentations.
26

Customer Lifetime Value (CLV)
27
• Customer lifetime value (CLV):The present
value of the future cash flows attributed to the
customer during his/her entire relationship with
the company
CLV =
Avg Monthly Revenue per Customer ∗ Gross Margin per Customer
Monthly Churn Rate
Remarck: you can subtract retention cost when it is not in de marging.

What is the right price?
28
Based on :Priceintelligently.com

What is the right price?
29
Based on :Priceintelligently.com

What is the right
price?
Freemiums are to be handle carefully
• If you do choose to provide a freemium offering, be aware of
the fact that freemium is a customer acquisition strategy, not a
revenue model.
• Offering a freemium plan a hefty marketing expense, as
conversion rates to paid are typically very low. (look to LinkedIn
users around you, bookbone)
• The fact is that only 38% of SaaS companies offer freemium
plans.
30

Clear tariff plans
Salesforce.com’s
CRM pricing Notice
the fact that
Salesforce’s pricing is
clearly defined
One Plan for
Each Persona
You’re Targeting
31

The Margin assessments:
Some lessons
• Keep the focus on simplicity and get started
• better be approximately right than precisely wrong
• Be careful with over precision, it lead to apparent accuracy and less
sustainable models.
• Be précises in product cost and prices (cents). Be rough in fix costs.
• Look for you’re the key metrics in your market
• What is your unique sales unit of measure?
• Be iterative and know that adding a dimension in the product market
combinations also needs reflection on direct costs
• Start from a white paper and beat it. Make your own model so you
understand it.
• Look to the margin, is it realistic? Not too good not too bad. Compare
with day to day values (Bread, Salary, Car cost etc).
• Make Sensitivity analysis. Which parameter boosts your model?
32

Getting paid is the final goal?
33
I want to increase
payment terms
He will wait for his
funds
I want to be paid
earlier.
I will not finance
his operations

The impact of bat Debts
Hieronder vindt u een overzicht dat aantoont hoeveel extra omzet u nodig hebt als een vordering niet meer te
innen is. Om 600.000 euro goed te maken aan een winstmarge van 3%, zal mijn klant liefst 20 miljoen euro extra
omzet moeten draaien wil zij hetzelfde resultaat halen als in 2013. Dit gaat de klant jaren meeslepen.
Adviseren om niet te verkopen vergt moed. Het is echter geen beslissing om verkopers te pesten. Integendeel,
het is in het belang van de onderneming.
34

BIG DATA: A SIMPLE CONCEPT
35
DATA INSIGHTS:
• We all struggle still with the available enterprise data, and here is Big Data
• Companies that make the effort to manage and control their critical metadata
are able to create more meaningful data-driven analyses, generate timely
actionable insights (Aberdeen 2015)
• As recent history has shown, information is
the byproduct of digital disruption and there
is lot of it. ( Digital disrupt or die, Mark J. Barrenechea )

InCoPro –D4M
New business models and the
impact on working capital
24 mei 201536
Going SAAS and the impact
on financing

The Typology of the Cash
models
1. Pay now
2. Pay Soon
3. Pay Later
4. Pay Never
5. Pay first
• Old ICT: Licenses
• Consulting model
• Typical saas (pay as you
use)
• Free economy,User as a
the product
• Retail, e-commerce
Bootstraps
37

More about the cash-models
38 24 mei 2015
• http://www.slideshare.net/omohout

SAAS: a game changer of the cash
model
traditional software world
• “perpetual license” customers
pay for the software license up
front
• typically pay a recurring
annual maintenance fee
(about 15-20% of the original
license fee).
• All of the license fee goes
direct in P&L: $1M license fee
sold in the quarter shows up as
$1M in revenue in the quarter.
• signing up to use the software on
an ongoing basis,
• typically contracts for 12-24 months
• revenue is recognize as the
software service is delivered
• But all its costs up front.: acquiring
cost,sales and marketing,
developing and maintenance,
hosting, infrastructure.
software as a service
39

Why shooing Esker SAAS service?
• Requiring little to no upfront investments
• (JFS:investment risk),
• Esker offers a pay-per-use SaaS
(JFS: price competition makes Risk by you)
• platform that allows you to implement AP automation rapidly
and cost effectively, without the need to build or expand an
in-house network while, moving from capital to operational
expenditure.
(JFS:Operationals expense to investments by provider)
• the web-based nature of SaaS lets you expand approval
workflow beyond the walls of the company — to subsidiary
offices, manufacturing facilities, etc. — without having to open
the corporate firewall.
(JFS: Security risk at Service provider) 40
Impact of changing into SAAS

• Acquiring cost for a customer $6,000
• Monthly fee $500 per month
• break even after 13 months
Saas Growth: Cash Hockeystick
Growth
41
Andreessen Horowitz is a
Silicon Valley-based venture
capital firm with $4.2 billion
under management. The firm
invests in entrepreneurs
building companies at every
stage – from seed to growth

• a young SaaS business growth,
burns cash flow
• As the company starts to
acquire more customers, the
cash flow becomes even
more negative
• The faster it grows, the more up-
front sales expense it incurs
without the corresponding
incoming cash from customer
subscriptions fees.
• the faster the company acquires
customers, the larger it grows its
installed base and the better the
curve looks when it becomes
cash flow positive:
Saas Growth: Cash
Hockeystick Growth
42
CAC: Customer acquisition cost

Saas Growth: Cash Hockeystick
Growth
43
Stop
campaigns
• Your Working capital is used to financing sales actions for further growth
• The service provider is investing in Hardware software and community growth.
• The customer pays as he use in the future.

Operating profit remains resilient Operating profit declined 9% to €3.88 million
in response to three main factors:
• The accelerated transition to SaaS weighing in the short term on sales;(less
licences up front)
• Significant investments by Esker Group to strengthen its capacity for
development and support improvements in its offering of solutions;
(increase in sales cost)
• Exchange rate
Impact of changing into SAAS

The cash model of Airbnb
• When a guest submits a booking inquiry to a landlord, the guest
provides us with his or her payment details and approves the automatic
payment of a certain amount of money. We do not complete the
authorization if the booking inquiry is canceled, rejected or expires. In
that case we release all authorizations.
• If a booking inquiry is accepted, the entire payment is processed and
colelcted by Airbnb*. We retain the payment until 24 hours after
checking in before releasing it to the landlord, regardless of whether the
booking was made 2 days or 2 months in advance. This allows both
parties to take their time to check the room properly and make sure
everything is as expected.
*https://www.airbnb.be/help/article/51
46

Bio-metrics of Jos
Feyaerts
Transition
Projects
M&A
Turnaround mgmt
Coaching &
Sharing
Knowledge
Technology
Process &System
ERP, BPM, Data Analytics,
e-financial Supply Chain
Strategic finance
Performance Measurement,
corporate restructuring,
financing, etc.
www.Dyzo.be
Entrepreneurs
on a crossroad
Horse insights
for mgmt and
teams
e-SC
Startups.be
Technics
BIMAC
Controllers
connect

Bio-metrics of Jos Feyaerts
49
Experiences:
– International Finance & controlling in industrial group (12 Years, BE, DE, ES, PT))
– CFO functions in divers SME and large Corporates, turnaround, Growth problems, carve-
out, implementation of M&A, Shared Service Centers.
– ERP business lead/project mgmt, ERP-Post implementation remediation
– E-supply chain transition management (e-flows and Supply chain finance, e-payment)
– Design for margin, (Throughput, Bottleneck mgmt)
– Data for information, insight and impact
– InCoPro: independent since Oct. 2003.
– Horse Science for Management
Engagements: Stratups.be (financials) and adviser of Dyzo (SME with
continuity problems)
Hobby's: technology and technics, craftwork, outdoor sports,
Guest-lecturer : digitalization of the financial supply chain and supply chain
finance (KUL, HUB,EHB, congresses)

Design for Margin
Data to Information, Insights and Impact
D4M
D2iiiInCo
Pro

CIP : continuous improvement process
ToC : Theory of constraints
Performance management
Process Mining
BPM: Business process modelling
Cash driven Business Cases
Project Management
SCF: supply chain finance and Working
capital visibility
D2iii Data to information,
insights and impact
51
D4M
Product
Production process
Logistic processes
Support processes
Distributions channel
Supply chain (Procurement/sourcing)
Improve working capital and Throughput
D2iii

The End
“Think big, start up small, scale up fast!”
If you have a problem and nobody else can help you,
Jos Feyaerts
D4M & D2iii
@InCoPro BvBA
Mob:+32-473 38 16 13 Skype: FeyJos
Jos.feyaerts@skynet.be
please find us:

Assessing the sales margins in new business models (SAAS, e-commerce) Bryo Leuven 23/05/2015

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