Title: Using Clustering Of Electricity Consumers To Produce More Accurate Predictions.
Description:
I will give you tips and tricks for predicting mainly seasonal time series of electricity consumption. Appropriate methods to predict seasonal time series will be mentioned. We will pay main attention to the usage of cluster analysis to produce more accurate predictions and the following importance of dimensionality reduction. We will talk how such approaches can be efficiently programmed in R (data.table, parallel, acceleration of matrix calculus - MRO).
Mastering customer journey with reactivation Exponea
Deck from webinar where experts from Skypicker and Exponea demonstrate how targeted micro campaigns reactivate lost passengers in travel industry. Practical tips inside.
After 10 years in Analytics practice we came to conclusion that there are 6 absolutely necessary things that make Analytics work. Companies what master all 6 things perform multiple times better than all competitors. Learn what makes analytics work.
Ability to keep customers coming back is crucial for your business. Companies that measure, analyze and experiment with ways to improve retention, grow much faster. Read this presentation to learn more about retention, its importance, impact and proven ways to make it as high as possible.
ARM yourself with Exponea - 7 tips for growthExponea
Improving ARM ability significantly impacts business performance. You need to track and measure metrics to identify pain-points. Following 7 tips in these slides will help you grow.
Title: Using Clustering Of Electricity Consumers To Produce More Accurate Predictions.
Description:
I will give you tips and tricks for predicting mainly seasonal time series of electricity consumption. Appropriate methods to predict seasonal time series will be mentioned. We will pay main attention to the usage of cluster analysis to produce more accurate predictions and the following importance of dimensionality reduction. We will talk how such approaches can be efficiently programmed in R (data.table, parallel, acceleration of matrix calculus - MRO).
Mastering customer journey with reactivation Exponea
Deck from webinar where experts from Skypicker and Exponea demonstrate how targeted micro campaigns reactivate lost passengers in travel industry. Practical tips inside.
After 10 years in Analytics practice we came to conclusion that there are 6 absolutely necessary things that make Analytics work. Companies what master all 6 things perform multiple times better than all competitors. Learn what makes analytics work.
Ability to keep customers coming back is crucial for your business. Companies that measure, analyze and experiment with ways to improve retention, grow much faster. Read this presentation to learn more about retention, its importance, impact and proven ways to make it as high as possible.
ARM yourself with Exponea - 7 tips for growthExponea
Improving ARM ability significantly impacts business performance. You need to track and measure metrics to identify pain-points. Following 7 tips in these slides will help you grow.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
2. FUN fact
Byť single ↗
Singles domácnosti sú podľa štúdie University College London
environmentálnou časovou bombou. Ich spotreba elektrickej
energie na hlavu je o 55% vyššia ako v prípade štvorčlennej
rodiny1.
1
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/
news-releases-archive/sololiving
1
3. Prečo budem hovoriť o energetike a predikciách?
Lebo:
• Som bol pridelený na projekt o “Big Data”, ktorý sa riešil
na fakulte.
• Presnejšia predikcia spotreby elektrickej energie je
dôležitá z viacerých dôvodov.
• Baví ma Data Mining.
• Romanovi ma bonzli moji kolegovia.
2
5. Model siete
Nový model siete:
• Zdroj energie - veterné a
solárne elektrárne. Sú
ťažšie predvídateľné.
• Aktívni koncoví užívatelia.
producer + consumer ⇒
prosumer.
• Regulačné zariadenia.
Prečerpávacie vodné
elektrárne.
4
6. Presnejšia predikcia
• Výroba elektrickej energie. Prepätie v sieti.
• Producenti.
• Distribučné spoločnosti. Deregulácia trhu. Nákup a predaj
elektriny.
5
7. Čo sa preto robí?
• Vytváranie inteligentných
sietí (smart grids).
• Zmena legislatívy.
• Finančná podpora od EÚ.
Znižovanie spotreby el.
energie.
• Kľúčové slová:
smart meter,
demand response,
empowering, smart cities.
6
8. Výskumný projekt na fakulte
Info:
• Financovanie - Agentúra Ministerstva školstva, vedy, výskumu a športu
SR pre štrukturálne fondy.
• Doba riešenia - február 2014 – november 2015.
• Partneri - ATOS, STU, Sféra s.r.o.
• FEI STU - Smart Grid a Kryptografia. FIIT STU - Big Data.
Big Data:
• Regulácia Európskej únie - vyhláška MH SR č.358/2013 účinnej od 15.
novembra 2013.
• v SR má byť inteligentnými meračmi vybavených 80% zo všetkých
odberných miest. 2 milióny.
• 15-minútové intervaly údajov o odbere elektrickej energie.
• 96 meraní denne, pre 2 milióny odberateľov je to asi 70, 08 miliárd
záznamov ročne.
7
9. Inteligentné siete a merače
• Inteligentná sieť je systém, ktorý dokáže ovládať dopyt po elektrine
v udržateľnej, spoľahlivej a ekonomickej forme tým, že využíva
pokročilé digitálne informácie a komunikačné technológie. Táto
platforma má za cieľ dosiahnuť stálu dostupnosť energií, udržateľnosť
energie, ochranu životného prostredia, prevenciu pred veľkými
zlyhaniami (výpadkami), ako aj optimalizovať prevádzkové náklady
spojené s produkciou a distribúciou energie.
• Výhody inteligentných meračov:
1. Automatické zbieranie dát. Už nie je potrebné manuálne
zapisovanie hodnôt z meračov.
2. Povoľuje vytváranie dynamických taríf (faktúr), ktoré sa
menia počas dňa. Tento prístup môže znížiť výrazne
spotrebu elektrickej energie počas špičiek.
8
10. Slovenské dáta
• Počet OOM je 21502. Z toho 11281 sú fajn. Podniky.
• Časový interval meraní: 01.07.2011 – 14.05.2015. No nie každé OOM má
dáta z celého intervalu. Prevažne až od 01.07.2013.
Írske dáta:
• Počet OOM je 6435. Z toho 3639 sú rezidencie. Dotazníky.
• Časový interval: 14.7.2009 – 31.12.2010. 30-min. merania (48 denne).
9
11. Smart meter dáta
OOM_ID DIAGRAM_ID CAS MNOZSTVO DRUH_MERANIA DATUM PSC
1: 11 202004 −45 4.598 O 01/01/2014 4013
2: 11 202004 195 4.087 O 01/01/2014 4013
3: 11 202004 −30 5.108 O 01/01/2014 4013
4: 11 202004 345 4.598 O 01/01/2014 4013
5: 11 202004 825 2.554 O 01/01/2014 4013
6: 11 202004 870 2.554 O 01/01/2014 4013
41312836: 20970 14922842 90 18.783 O 14/02/2015 4011
41312837: 20970 14922842 75 20.581 O 14/02/2015 4011
41312838: 20970 14922842 60 18.583 O 14/02/2015 4011
41312839: 20970 14922842 45 18.983 O 14/02/2015 4011
41312840: 20970 14922842 30 17.384 O 14/02/2015 4011
41312841: 20970 14922842 15 18.583 O 14/02/2015 4011 10
19. Analýza časových radov
• Nie sú veľmi vhodné pri viacnásobných sezónnostiach.
• Riešenie: Vytváranie separátnych modelov pre rôzne dni
v týždni.
• Riešenie: Double-seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW).
18
20. Analýza časových radov
• Riešenie: Dekompozícia časového radu na tri zložky - sezónna,
trend, zostatok (šum).
• Rôzne metódy. STL dekompozícia (seasonal decomposition of
time series by loess).
19
22. Regresné stromy a lesy
• Dummy premenné nie sú vhodné.
• RPART, Extremely Randomized Trees, Bagging.
Denný a týždenný sezónny vektor:
Day = (1, 2, . . . , seas, 1, 2, . . . , seas, . . . )
Week = (1, 1, . . . , 1, 2, 2, . . . , 2, . . . , 7, 1, 1, . . . ),
kde seas je perióda (48 resp. 96).
21
23. Regresné lesy
• Extreme Gradient Boosting (xgboost), Random Forest.
Denný a týždenný sezónny vektor vo forme sínusu a kosínusu:
Day = (1, 2, . . . , seas, 1, 2, . . . , seas, . . . )
Week = (1, 1, . . . , 1, 2, 2, . . . , 2, . . . , 7, 1, 1, . . . )
sin(2π Day
seas ) + 1
2
resp.
cos(2π Day
seas ) + 1
2
sin(2πWeek
7 ) + 1
2
resp.
cos(2πWeek
7 ) + 1
2
,
kde seas je perióda (48 resp. 96).
• Odšumená spotreba oneskorená (lag) o jeden deň.
22
24. Neurónové siete
• Dopredné, rekurentné, viacvrstvový perceptrón (MLP),
hlboké.
• Spotreba oneskorená o jeden týždeň. Odšumená
spotreba.
• Model pre rôzne dni.
• Sínus a kosínus.
23
25. Ensemble learning
• Nevieme určiť, ktorý model je najlepší. Pretrénovanie
(overfitting).
• Učenie súboru metód. Váhovanie modelov ⇒ lineárna
kombinácia.
• Adaptácia váh predikčných metód na základe chyby predikcie -
mediánové váhovanie.
et
j = median(| xt
− ˆx
t
j |)
wt+1
j = wt
j
median(et
)
et
j
Trénovacia množina – pridávanie a zabúdanie dát. Posuvné okno.
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26. Ensemble learning
• Inkrementálno-heterogénny ensemble model.
• Zlepšenie o 8 − 12%.
• Váhovanie metód – optimalizačná úloha.
Genetický algoritmus, PSO a iné.
• Zlepšenie o 5, 5%.
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27. Vytváranie predikovateľnejších skupín odberateľov
Analýza zhlukov! Cluster Analysis!
• Bez učiteľa. Unsupervised learning.
• Úlohou analýzy zhlukov je zoskupiť sadu objektov v takom
zmysle, že objekty v rovnakej skupine (zhluk) sú si viac
podobné ako tie, ktoré sú v iných skupinách (zhlukoch).
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28. Analýza zhlukov v inteligentných sieťach
• Pohotovostná analýza. Takáto analýza sa snaží produkovať
detekcie a reakcie k neočakávaným problémom.
Monitorovanie vývoja zhluku uzlov (inteligentných
meračov) môže pomôcť odhaľovať náhle zmeny v dopyte
a ponuke.
• Vytvorenie nevychýlených vzoriek (profilov) z populácie.
Typové diagramy.
• Identifikácia charakteristík, ktoré najviac korelujú
so správaním sa používania elektrickej energie.
• V neposlednom rade vylepšenie predikčných metód a tým
pádom zníženie chybovosti predikcie spotreby elektrickej
energie.
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30. Analýza zhlukov
Veľa rôznych metód:
Ťažiskové
K-means, K-medoids, CLARA.
Pravdepodobnostné
EM.
Založené na hustote
DBSCAN, OPTICS.
Hierarchické
Single-linkage, CURE.
Vysoká dimenzionalita dát - č.r.
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31. Zhlukovanie OOM
Riešenia:
1. Prispôsobiť dáta na niektorý známy algoritmus.
2. Vytvoriť nový algoritmus.
3. Nerobiť nič a dúfať, že to aj tak pomôže.
Môj výber:
K-means + návrh vhodných reprezentácií časových radov.
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36. Reprezentácie časových radov
Prečo reprezentácie?
1. Znižujú pamäťové zaťaženie.
2. Zrýchľujú následné algoritmy strojového učenia.
3. Implicitne odstraňujú šum z dát.
4. Zvýrazňujú základné charakteristiky dát.
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37. Predspracovanie
Normalizácia časových radov - odberateľov.
Najlepšia možnosť je použiť z-skóre:
x − µ
σ
Alternatíva:
x
max(x)
Normalizovanie spotreby ⇒ zhlukovanie podobných priebehov
(kriviek) ⇒ presnejšia predikcia.
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38. Metódy reprezentácie časových radov
PAA - Piecewise Aggregate Approximation. Non data adaptive.
n -> d. ˆX = (ˆx1, . . . ,ˆxd).
ˆxi =
d
n
(n/d)i
∑
j=(n/d)(i−1)+1
xj.
Nie len priemer. Medián, smerodajná odchýlka, maximum.
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39. Metódy reprezentácie časových radov
PLA - Piecewise Linear Approximation.
Dátovo adaptívna (data adaptive) metóda.
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40. Späť k modelom a hlavne k regresiám
• Reprezentácie založené na štatistickom modeli (model
based).
• Extrakcia regresných koeficientov ⇒ vytváranie denných
profilov.
• Vytvorenie reprezentácie dlhej, ako je perióda sezónneho
č.r.
xi = β1ui1 + β2ui2 + · · · + βseasuiseas + εi
Nová reprezentácia: β = (β1, . . . , βseas).
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41. Čo sa dá všetko použiť
Metódy:
• Viacnásobná lineárna regresia. Robustná regresia,
L1-regresia.
• Odhad reg. koeficientov pomocou stochastic gradient
descent (SGD).
• Generalized additive model (GAM). Nemýliť s GLM. Splajny
- vyhladzovacie funkcie. Cyclic cubic regression spline.
• Trojité Holt-Winters exponenciálne vyhladzovanie.
• Priemerné alebo mediánové denné profily.
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