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Automobile Development
            October 19, 2011




            Eric Norman
            MBA 2012
Why don’t cars look like the beautiful car show
        models?




Source: Toyota Europe (YouTube)
Historical Context


                                   Mass         Mass
           Hand crafted
                                 Produced   customization




Image source: Toyota.com, Ford
…Modern variations can be in the millions

    Variations offered on Ford Fusion:




Image source: MANAGING COMPLEXITY IN AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION
…and they must be made thousands of times per
         month
Product             Stanley             HP DeskJet        VW (new)       Boeing 777
                    screwdriver                           Beetle

Annual              15,000              4 million         100,000        50
Production
volume

Sales lifetime      40 years            2 years           6 years        30 years

Sales price         $6                  $130              $20,000        $200 million

Parts               3 parts             200 parts         10,000 parts   130,000 parts

Team size           6 people            175 people        1,600 people   16,800 people

Development         1 year              1.5 years         3.5 years      4.5 years
time

Total cost          $300,000            $75 million       $900 million   $6 billion

Source: Ulrich, Eppinger Product Design and Development
If you want one beautiful car, have a craftsman make
        everything by hand
        • http://youtu.be/La73Oy9ZGVw?t=2m8s




Source: CT Heritage
Ferrari makes more profit than Fiat does in revenue
         (per vehicle)


                                                                         Profit margin
           Company         Units Sold   Rev (M Eur)   Proft (M Eur)
                                                                              (%)


              Fiat          2,081,800      27,860         515                  2%


             Ferrari          6,573        1,919          302                  16%




       Per Vehicle:
              Company                    Rev                          Profit
                 Fiat                   13,383                         247
                Ferrari                 291,952                       45,946



Source: Fiat Group 2010 Annual Report
But if you want high quality at a fair price, design by
satisfying constraints quickly


                        Design




             Sales                  Engineering




                       Production
First develop the car that you want (engineering
     prototype)




youtube
Then prepare to build it thousands of times (mass
      production)




youtube
Advanced version: do both simultaneously and iterate

    (目的)

 N-36 (month)                  N-24 (month)            N-12 (month)
                                                                Engineering      N
                                                                  simultaneously
    CE (CE構想)Development                Styling                   - Design
    Concept  Proposal (開発提案)            Approval   (デザイン審査)       - Production Engineering
      ▽       ▽                          ▽                        - Production (Plant)
                     Prototype Drawing (試作図面)                     - Supplier

                               Prototype Production (試作)
      Vehicle                                               SE
    Development                    Prototype Evaluation (試作評価)
        (車両開発)                      Regular Drawing (正式図)

                                     Tooling & Equipment making
     Production                      (型・設備製作)

     Preparation
        (生産準備)
                                                                  Production Trial (号口試作)



Source: Toyota presentation 2004
An example of iterative flow in the Design Process

                 Paper      Digital           3D             Clay model
Design:
                Sketches   Drawings        Rendering          (full size)


                                              3D
                            Engineering:               CAD         Doughboy
                                           Drawings




 Image source: Ford.com
When designers make the show car, they may not be
        satisfying constraints for manufacturing and durability




Image source: Bloomberg
The ultimate goal is customer satisfaction (leads to
         sustainable profits)




Image source: lexusenthusiast.com, carinsurance.org
KEY CONCEPTS
Clay models are used for design human ability to “feel
        proper design”




Image source: BMW
Mules are a quick/cheap way to test ideas
Weld and paint quality checks are done by humans do
to incredible sensitivity of human hand
• http://youtu.be/rg1IPXiRva0?hd=1&t=3m57s
Simulations speed up design process…




Image source: Autoworld.com
… but live testing is required for confirmation




Image source: google image search
Previous evaluation                                             ⑤ Re-try




   ① Put paint on inside of outer panel        ② Set inner panel to outer panel




                                                                   Repair → Re-design



   ③ Fitting confirmation                                 ④ Modify part & re-design
        by checking paint stuck porti     on
Source: Toyota presentation 2004
Latest evaluation




                                                                           +
                                                                           -


                                   Inner panel
                                                                           -    +
                                                                          Outer panel




                                                 Digital Assembly




                                                           Interference
Source: Toyota presentation 2004
Buy a new car 6-12 months after a major/minor model
         change

             Major                              Major
            6 years                            6 years
      Minor                                Minor
     3 years                              3 years
Annual   Annual    Annual   Annual   Annual   Annual   Annual   Annual
1 year   1 year    1 year   1 year   1 year   1 year   1 year   1 year




• Minor problems sometimes cannot be addressed until the
  next fix cycle
• Long-term testing takes time to complete

Camry life cycles (link)
Final cosmetic touches
Platform/Underbody is the heart of a car

     •   Like Windows 7
     •   Shared among vehices
     •   Defines major driving characteristics
     •   Engineering typically done at HQ
     •   See also:
         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Toyota_p
         latforms




Camry platform (link)
APPENDIX
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lolnxhYPEJc (Ford Escape
  Mule on road)
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHtQDZOQJV0 (FT 86
  pretty body)
• http://youtu.be/3SYJjE7Xrf4 (FT86 track test)
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg1IPXiRva0 (Kaikain
  factory process)
• http://youtu.be/QXOguvLi9Fo?t=49s (Ontario factory)
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=La73Oy9ZGVw&feature=rel
  ated (Ferrari hand made)
• http://youtu.be/1rA9qOdyEYs?t=3m59s (IS wood)
• http://youtu.be/hWjSOe55zPQ (RORO)
• http://youtu.be/zw-6gNd-bz4 (RORO 2)
• http://youtu.be/Mp8Y2yjV4fU (sudoku mind)
US PPI
Hand craftsmanship can have high variability

        In January 1801 he went to Washington where
        he made an unforgettable demonstration
        before government officials. He spread out on
        a table many parts of gunlocks, then randomly
        picked up pieces to assemble a lock. He then
        disassembled it and invited his astonished
        observers to emulate him. In 1812 he was
        awarded a contract to manufacture 15,000
        muskets



Source: CT Heritage

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Automobile Development

  • 1. Automobile Development October 19, 2011 Eric Norman MBA 2012
  • 2. Why don’t cars look like the beautiful car show models? Source: Toyota Europe (YouTube)
  • 3. Historical Context Mass Mass Hand crafted Produced customization Image source: Toyota.com, Ford
  • 4. …Modern variations can be in the millions Variations offered on Ford Fusion: Image source: MANAGING COMPLEXITY IN AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION
  • 5. …and they must be made thousands of times per month Product Stanley HP DeskJet VW (new) Boeing 777 screwdriver Beetle Annual 15,000 4 million 100,000 50 Production volume Sales lifetime 40 years 2 years 6 years 30 years Sales price $6 $130 $20,000 $200 million Parts 3 parts 200 parts 10,000 parts 130,000 parts Team size 6 people 175 people 1,600 people 16,800 people Development 1 year 1.5 years 3.5 years 4.5 years time Total cost $300,000 $75 million $900 million $6 billion Source: Ulrich, Eppinger Product Design and Development
  • 6. If you want one beautiful car, have a craftsman make everything by hand • http://youtu.be/La73Oy9ZGVw?t=2m8s Source: CT Heritage
  • 7. Ferrari makes more profit than Fiat does in revenue (per vehicle) Profit margin Company Units Sold Rev (M Eur) Proft (M Eur) (%) Fiat 2,081,800 27,860 515 2% Ferrari 6,573 1,919 302 16% Per Vehicle: Company Rev Profit Fiat 13,383 247 Ferrari 291,952 45,946 Source: Fiat Group 2010 Annual Report
  • 8. But if you want high quality at a fair price, design by satisfying constraints quickly Design Sales Engineering Production
  • 9. First develop the car that you want (engineering prototype) youtube
  • 10. Then prepare to build it thousands of times (mass production) youtube
  • 11. Advanced version: do both simultaneously and iterate (目的) N-36 (month) N-24 (month) N-12 (month) Engineering N simultaneously CE (CE構想)Development Styling - Design Concept Proposal (開発提案) Approval (デザイン審査) - Production Engineering ▽ ▽ ▽ - Production (Plant) Prototype Drawing (試作図面) - Supplier Prototype Production (試作) Vehicle SE Development Prototype Evaluation (試作評価) (車両開発) Regular Drawing (正式図) Tooling & Equipment making Production (型・設備製作) Preparation (生産準備) Production Trial (号口試作) Source: Toyota presentation 2004
  • 12. An example of iterative flow in the Design Process Paper Digital 3D Clay model Design: Sketches Drawings Rendering (full size) 3D Engineering: CAD Doughboy Drawings Image source: Ford.com
  • 13. When designers make the show car, they may not be satisfying constraints for manufacturing and durability Image source: Bloomberg
  • 14. The ultimate goal is customer satisfaction (leads to sustainable profits) Image source: lexusenthusiast.com, carinsurance.org
  • 16. Clay models are used for design human ability to “feel proper design” Image source: BMW
  • 17. Mules are a quick/cheap way to test ideas
  • 18. Weld and paint quality checks are done by humans do to incredible sensitivity of human hand • http://youtu.be/rg1IPXiRva0?hd=1&t=3m57s
  • 19. Simulations speed up design process… Image source: Autoworld.com
  • 20. … but live testing is required for confirmation Image source: google image search
  • 21. Previous evaluation ⑤ Re-try ① Put paint on inside of outer panel ② Set inner panel to outer panel Repair → Re-design ③ Fitting confirmation ④ Modify part & re-design by checking paint stuck porti on Source: Toyota presentation 2004
  • 22. Latest evaluation + - Inner panel - + Outer panel Digital Assembly Interference Source: Toyota presentation 2004
  • 23. Buy a new car 6-12 months after a major/minor model change Major Major 6 years 6 years Minor Minor 3 years 3 years Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual 1 year 1 year 1 year 1 year 1 year 1 year 1 year 1 year • Minor problems sometimes cannot be addressed until the next fix cycle • Long-term testing takes time to complete Camry life cycles (link)
  • 25. Platform/Underbody is the heart of a car • Like Windows 7 • Shared among vehices • Defines major driving characteristics • Engineering typically done at HQ • See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Toyota_p latforms Camry platform (link)
  • 27. • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lolnxhYPEJc (Ford Escape Mule on road) • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHtQDZOQJV0 (FT 86 pretty body) • http://youtu.be/3SYJjE7Xrf4 (FT86 track test) • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg1IPXiRva0 (Kaikain factory process) • http://youtu.be/QXOguvLi9Fo?t=49s (Ontario factory) • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=La73Oy9ZGVw&feature=rel ated (Ferrari hand made) • http://youtu.be/1rA9qOdyEYs?t=3m59s (IS wood) • http://youtu.be/hWjSOe55zPQ (RORO) • http://youtu.be/zw-6gNd-bz4 (RORO 2) • http://youtu.be/Mp8Y2yjV4fU (sudoku mind)
  • 29. Hand craftsmanship can have high variability In January 1801 he went to Washington where he made an unforgettable demonstration before government officials. He spread out on a table many parts of gunlocks, then randomly picked up pieces to assemble a lock. He then disassembled it and invited his astonished observers to emulate him. In 1812 he was awarded a contract to manufacture 15,000 muskets Source: CT Heritage

Editor's Notes

  1. Track test: http://youtu.be/3SYJjE7Xrf4
  2. Ford Model T Roadster (represents an old crafted car; google searchFord 1913 plant: Ford assembly line, 1913. The magneto assembly line was the first. WikipediaTundra 2 cabs, 2 drives, 2 lengths, 3 engines = 24 types; toyota.com
  3. Source: MANAGING COMPLEXITY IN AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION, H. Schleich, J. Schaffer, L. F. Scavarda, 19th International Conference on Production Research
  4. Notes: Team size=Internal (peak) + external (peak), cost=development cost + production investmentSource: Ulrich, Eppinger: Product Design and Development
  5. http://www.ctheritage.org/encyclopedia/ct1763_1818/whitney.htm
  6. Ontario: 0:51 to 4:49
  7. http://corporate.ford.com/innovation/innovation-features/innovation-detail/making-of-global-vehicle2012 Focus
  8. http://lexusenthusiast.com/http://www.carinsurance.org/2009 IQS results show Lexus at top
  9. 3:57 to 4:14
  10. Mercedes SLS AMG 2009
  11. See MTS documentLink to CamryStory=aichitoyota the lamp changed
  12. Adding plastic grainSrouce: 6thgenaccord.com
  13. Ferrari video: 1:10 create slolwy, limit production, wait 20 months; 2:15 1 tech 1 engine; 3:11 slow line…Kaikain: stamping, weld, paint, assy; 3:55 hand check qualityOntario: 0:51 to 4:49
  14. Description Notes: This is a combination of several indices. Data from 1720 through 1747 are taken from Anne Bezanson, Wholesale prices in Philadelphia, A series of relative monthly prices. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1936-1937 and 1954. From 1748 until 1912, the index of U.S. Commodity Prices collected by George F. Warren and Frank A. Pearson, Prices, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1933, pp. 11-13 is used. This index used eleven groups of commodities including farm products (25-35 items), foods (25-27 items, hides and leather (4-5 items), textiles (8-10 items), fuel and lighting (.5 to 1), house furnishings (1), spirits (3-5), miscellaneous (1.5-3 items). The full index is available in CMWPCPIM. Beginning in 1913, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' all-commodity price index is used and is continued through 1947. For 1926 and later years the index was based on 784 commodities. See United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics mimeograph release No. 4313, January 1932. The current index has a base of 1982 = 100 and uses the All commodities Producer Commodity Price Index. The All-Industrial Producer Price Index, which begins in 1913, can be found in WPUSAICM. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), that measure price change from the purchaser's perspective. Sellers' and purchasers' prices may differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs. There are three main PPI publication structures: Industry-based. The PPI publishes over 500 industry price indexes in combination with over 10,000 specific product line and product category sub-indexes. Commodity-based. The PPI publishes over 3,200 commodity price indexes organized by type of product and end use. Stage-of-processing based. The PPI publishes aggregate price indexes organized by commodity-based processing stage. The three stages of processing include Finished Goods; Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components; and Crude Materials for Further Processing.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is collected from the FRED database. The FRED database uses data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, The White House Council of Economic Advisors and Office of Management and Budget, the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
  15. http://www.ctheritage.org/encyclopedia/ct1763_1818/whitney.htm