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global Climate 500 INDEX 2015/
TRANSPARENCY
PREFACE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The AODP Global Climate 500 is the world standard
for assessing the world’s largest investors on
climate-risk management. In a year that has seen
carbon and fossil fuel risk become centre stage in
the climate debate, the question of who owns and
manages the carbon is critical.
In addition to measuring and reporting their portfolio
exposure, asset owners have come under new
pressure to adjust their core investment processes
to consistently reduce this exposure and manage
third parties whose models and investment decisions
drive that exposure.
Some of the questions we answer include: how are
asset owners rising to the unique challenge of
climate change? Are the leaders accelerating?
Who are the largest laggards? Which country’s asset
owners are most pro-active? Have endowments or
foundations improved as a result of the divestment
movement?
The AODP Global Climate 500 has been produced
by assessing the world’s largest 500 asset owners
including pension funds, sovereign wealth funds,
insurance companies, foundations and endowments.
Funds are rated from AAA through to D grade, with an
extra X category being added for those funds at the
bottom that appear to be doing absolutely nothing to
manage this critical risk.
REPORT WRITTEN AND PRODUCED BY:
RACHEL MADEIROS-MHENDE CFA, OLIVER WAGG AND JOSHUA SHEPPARD
THE ASSET OWNERS DISCLOSURE PROJECT GIVES SPECIAL THANKS TO THE FOLLOWING PEOPLE
IN PRODUCING THIS REPORT:
VICTORIA BRYANT, LUKE FAY, ROBERT SCHWARZ, HUGUES LETOURNEAU, PAVEL KIRJANAS,
MARK MCCAW, SERENA RITCHIE, MARCUS MORLEY, ELLIOT LAVERS, GINA SAHOTA, OLIVIER CASSARO,
TRACY NGUYEN, NOZUKO MKETO, DANIEL GOCHER, AADESH GOSRANI, ANDREA BARBERIS
THE ONGOING SUPPORT OF AODP’S FUNDERS IS ACKNOWLEDGED. A FULL LIST CAN BE FOUND ON
OUR WEBSITE (WWW.AODPROJECT.NET).
THE VIEWS IN THIS REPORT REMAIN THOSE OF AODP.
TRANSPARENCY
The Asset Owners Disclosure Project (AODP) is
an independent not-for-profit global organisation
whose objective is to protect investments held by
the world’s largest asset owners’ – pension funds,
insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds,
foundations and endowments – from the risks
posed by climate change. It does this by working
with asset owners to improve the level of disclosure
and industry best practice in climate risk assessment
and management.
AODP researches and produces the annual Global
Climate 500 Index, while developing stakeholder
communication platforms and campaigns to drive
the use of the index data. This creates a top-down
and bottom-up approach to driving asset owners to
manage climate risk.
The AODP has a board of senior leaders with
investment, risk-management, business,
trade union, political, academic and environment
backgrounds, including John Hewson, Bob Litterman,
Sharon Burrows and John Connor.
The index provides asset owners (and their
stakeholders, members and beneficiaries) with
valuable insight into the strategies deployed by some
of the largest asset owners in the world in relation
to climate change. The initiative encourages funds
to engage in climate change-related investment risk
assessment through the investment chain, often for
the first time.
Another initiative of the AODP, The Vital Few
(www.areyouthevitalfew.org), piloted a community
of superannuation/pension fund members in UK,
Canada and Australia who have been inspired to take
action to ensure investments made on their behalf
provide for their future prosperity – both financially and
environmentally. They do this by asking the pensions
funds to disclose their current investment assets and
their portfolio climate risk management strategies.
CONTENTS
PREFACE
ABOUT AODP 02/
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 03/
KEY FINDINGS 05/
DATA 17
NOTES 27
KNOWN
UNKNOWN
ABOUT AODP
02
With the December 2015 UN Climate Change
Conference in Paris looming large many people
are doubtful the world’s nations will reach a
solution without the successful realignment of the
investment chain, the most important part of the
global financial system.
In turn, the most important link in the investment
chain consists of long-term institutional investors,
known as asset owners. Together they own over
$70 trillion capital, which dwarfs the approximate
$10 trillion required to effect a low-carbon transition.
2014 was an extraordinary year for climate-change
investment. The 350.org fossil fuel divestment
campaign has driven many funds to take a public
stance on climate risk. 350’s great resources
and penetration has meant that there are few
asset owners in the world not considering how
to communicate a climate risk strategy to their
stakeholders.
The ratings methodology behind the AODP Global
Climate 500 is purely performance focussed and asset
owners do not get points for commitments or media
releases. Full, direct disclosure was received on
nearly $5 trillion worth of assets under management,
a doubling from last year’s direct disclosure.
The key developments over the past year on climate
risk communication include:
/ Regular announcements by
asset owners on carbon-risk
management
/ Proliferation of low-carbon
investment initiatives
/ Greater acknowledgement of asset
owners’ role in climate action by
politicians and economic agencies
/ Greater commitments (and some
action) by leading asset owners
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY DEVELOPMENTS CARBON COMPARISON
WHERE IS THE MONEY TO SOLVE CLIMATE CHANGE?
Only 7% of assets owners are able to
calculate their emissions
Only 1.4% of asset owners have
reduced their carbon intensity from
the previous year
Only 2% of asset owners have an
emissions intensity reduction target
for next year
04
$Tn
$37Tn
$28Tn
$10Tn
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
the asset owners INVESTMENT SPLIT
2%
50%
48%
$1Tn
LOW-CARBON INVESTMENT
CLIMate change exposed
INVESTMENTs
COST TO SOLVE
CLIMate change
PENSION FUNDS
INSURANCE COMPANIES
FOUNDATIONS/ENDOWMENTS
aodp research 2012 based on
analysis of stem 2006
SOVEREIGN WEALTH
FUNDS
OTHER INVESTMENTS
7%
1.4%
2%
IF ALL FUNDS WERE
ACCELERATING AT THE SAME
RATE AS THE AAA FUNDS WE
WOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO
SOLVING CLIMATE CHANGE.
The gap between climate
risk management
leaders and laggards
is WIDENING.
06
KEY FINDINGS
This year nine
asset owners
achieved the AAA
rating, four more
than last year.
With the number
of AAA-rated asset
owners rising to
nine, the still small
group of leaders
are accelerating
progress.
Many of the higher rated asset owners have
significantly lower carbon emissions than their
respective indices. We recommend underweighting
carbon, however simply doing this will not create a
low-carbon transition without a full blown capital
switch and increase to their low-carbon investment.
Asset owners are not going to be able to remain
underweight whole sectors for long without adding
alternative low-carbon investments to their portfolio.
However, assuming that the equivalent low-carbon
assets in each sector eventually balance this
underweighting of carbon intensive assets would
release hundreds of billions of dollars into the
low-carbon economy. The implications are simple,
but staggering: leaders are well on the way to solving
climate change, but will only succeed if their peers
join them in moving towards this tipping point of a
capital switch into low-carbon.
With this year’s ratings methodology being
recalibrated more towards performance,
the performance of these AAA funds is even more
impressive. This gap between top and bottom
is exacerbated by an increase in the number of
laggard (D and X rated) funds. The size of the
leadership group rating A or above is interesting.
The mean assets under management (AUM) for the
AODP index is $72 billion, but the mean AUM for
the leadership group rated A and above is actually
$145 billion. This shows that generally speaking
the larger asset owners have built the kind of
internal capacity that allows them to more
pro-actively manage climate risks. However,
it is worth noting that size is clearly not a factor
in leadership per se as there are significant
leadership examples such as Local Government
Super in Australia that ranked number 1 in the
index, with only $7.5 billion under management.
Climate laggards
continue to be stuck with
ineffective climate-risk
management systems,
and are not moving at all.
There is still a general
crisis of transparency
amongst asset owners,
but the tipping point is
close.
KEY FINDINGS
There were in total
232 X-rated asset
owners this year
and 192 D-rated,
for a total of 424
laggard asset
owners, or 85% of
the industry.
This year the
number of direct
disclosers to
AODP doubled.
Last year, AODP introduced a new ratings band below
D – the X rating. This was to highlight those asset owners
that are doing nothing material to manage the financially
material risks associated with climate change.
This year the number of X-rated asset owners has
actually increased by 59, party because AODP decided
to remove credit in the ratings methodology for general
policy commitments that in reality had no evidence
of execution or implementation. With no meaningful
points for transparency, some of these asset owners
actually lost points from last year’s score.
For those asset owners with fiduciary exposure,
such as pension funds and possibly endowments,
it is only a matter of time before the recently announced
UK initiative involving AODP and environmental lawyers
ClientEarth is replicated in other jurisdictions.
In addition to the prospect of future legal escalation
around fiduciary duty, there is a new pressure that is
building on all asset owners to do better, which comes
from their peers. Impressive action by leading asset
owners to minimise risks to their stakeholders’ funds,
is being diluted by laggard asset owners resisting such
change either by refusing to do the requisite analysis
or to change processes, policies or culture.
While the AODP index is widely recognised by asset
owners as the leading framework for disclosure,
a large number of them chose not to disclose directly.
In AODP’s experience this is for two reasons: Firstly
asset owners do not want members discovering that
they have no other solution than to rely on their fund
managers to bail them out of a carbon crisis, or that
they rely purely on traditional strategic asset allocations
to manage climate risk. The second reason is more
encouraging as many asset owners have indicated to
AODP that they are midstream in the development of
a carbon-risk management plan and that they would
rather not disclose anything until they are able to
portray their fund’s conduct in a more favourable light.
While we are still concerned about the level of
overall transparency, this year’s improvement in the
number of disclosing asset owners together with
the promises for next year give us confidence that
we are close to a tipping point. None of this direct
transparency impacts our ability to rate asset owners
however, as AODP rates the asset owners regardless
of direct disclosure and those asset owners that are
active or commencing their journey are generally
proud of their achievements, and keen to show their
stakeholders that they have nothing to hide.
08
Many funds have simply
not done their homework
and are relying on
short-term oriented
fund managers to save
them in the long term.
Only a very few asset
owners have implemented
some protection against
a financial crisis.
KEY FINDINGS
Only 17 asset
owners have done
any systematic
scenario analysis
on climate risk.
Protection can
only be afforded
by creating and
implementing a
diversified hedging
strategy.
The AODP Best Practice Methodology that is linked
to the ratings methodology describes seven different
but parallel market-based pathways to a low-carbon
economy, any of which could have the same devastating
impact on a portfolio as if governments were forced
to implement 2 degree carbon-pricing. The traditional
processes within many asset owners make portfolio
wide assessment of systemic risks difficult and the
default strategy of many asset owners is to assume
that their fund managers will be able to sell and exit
any portfolio wide risks once such an acceleration of
climate risk begins. This is of course a fallacy as when
it comes to systemic risks such as climate change
(or sub-prime mortgages) there will be no liquidity in
markets for stranded assets and so it will be impossible
to protect value.
Some of the best performing leaders in this year’s index
have recognised this and have made statements about
abandoning indexation as an ineffective climate risk
management tool, essentially recognising that short-
term markets continue to misprice the risk. These
asset owners are using low carbon indexes and other
asset classes to hedge climate risk while addressing
the distinctive climate risk issues within their equity
portfolios to form an overall approach.
Given the lack of mitigation options available
for climate risk, protection can only be afforded
members by those managing their assets, creating
and implementing a diversified hedging strategy.
This might include some divestment, some
underweighting, strong engagement with blue chip
high-carbon companies and a low carbon allocation.
In particular, the low-carbon investments are the
ones that will increase most in value once high-
carbon investments are priced out of the market.
The reason for this is because any carbon pricing
mechanism implemented will create higher earnings
forecasts and thus higher valuations for assets, such
as renewable energy projects which currently have to
compete on largely equal terms, as many investors
have not allowed any forward carbon pricing to impact
the investment models of such assets.
Whilst innovation is one driver of competitiveness for
clean assets against fossil fuel based ones, there are
other forces such as attempts at carbon pricing and
off market capital shifts by some leading investors
who have decided to reduce their high-carbon
investments -some base this on scenario analysis
others do so for ethical reasons.
10
There is an increasing
sense of accountability
around risk management.
Change is possible.
KEY FINDINGS
Many asset owners
have improved their
communications
functions in the
past year realising
the increasing
pressure to explain
their investment
positions.
Changing fund
processes to better
manage climate
risk is achievable
without significant
return sacrifice.
Sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies have
not made much ground in recognising accountability
over climate risk to their stakeholders. However,
pension funds, foundations and endowments certainly
have. Whilst foundations and endowments do not have
members as such, they recognise the responsibility for
enhanced stewardship that comes with advantageous
tax treatments of their capital and some have
stakeholder groups such as university alumni and
committees who are deeply aware of climate risk.
Many pension funds have recognized that the age of
new member accountability and financial democracy
has arrived. The divestment movement run by 350.org
and similar movements such as Share Action’s
Greenlight campaign and AODP’s Vital Few have
generated a new recognition from pension funds about
the need to explain their long-term strategies.
Many asset owners have improved their communications
functions in the past year realising the increasing
pressure to explain their investment positions, but
also as a genuine attempt to communicate to peers
the progress that is possible. However, some asset
owners are still using the media to highlight particular
examples of progress without being transparent on their
overall position leading to accusations of ‘green wash’.
Enough leaders have emerged to prove that changing
fund processes to better manage climate risk is
achievable without significant return sacrifice and
without immediate government carbon pricing. We
would normally expect there to be some cost to the
implementation of a climate hedging strategy that
might in the short term inhibit the returns of asset
owners implementing climate-risk management
strategies. But so far this has not been the case.
However, these stronger returns may be medium term
only as asset owners looking to underweight carbon
in the last few years, as part of their hedging strategy,
would have done exceptionally well due to the collapse
in fossil fuel based commodity prices.
12
12
REDUCING PORTFOLIO
CARBON EXPOSURE IS KEY TO
MANAGING CLIMATE RISK.
KEY FINDINGS
Only 7% of asset
owners calculate
their portfolio
carbon footprint
and only 1.4%
have a target to
reduce this.
A key metric that AODP applies to its ratings
methodology is the level of portfolio carbon exposure,
strategies to reduce the exposure and the success or
failure of these strategies. Currently, only 35 asset
owners (7%) calculate their portfolio carbon footprint
and only seven asset owners (1.4%) have a target to
reduce this. This is despite the encouragement by
various initiatives such as the Montreal Carbon Pledge,
run by the UN Principles for Responsible Investment.
However, there have been some exceptional examples
of funds reducing their portfolio carbon exposure
within certain asset classes. For example one of our
AAA-rated asset owners reduced its portfolio carbon
exposure in their equities portfolio by 23% in a single
year. With the growth of-low carbon indices we expect
to see this kind of example increase next year.
HOW ARE THE WORLD’S
LEADING INVESTORS
MANAGING CLIMATE RISK?
AODP GLOBAL
CLIMATE 500
2015
DATA
rating	 asset owners	 2015	 asset owners	 2013-14
	 PER CATEGORY 2015	 (%)	 PER CATEGORY 2013-14	 (%)
BY RATING
18
These funds were rated X by the AODP analyst team where they could find no evidence at all on how
these funds are managing climate change.
X
	 AAA	 9	 1.8%	 5	 1 .1%
	 AA	 7	 1.4%	 10	 2.2%
	 A	 8	 1.6%	 12	 2.6%
	 BBB	 9	 1.8%	 6	 1.3%
	 BB	 8	 1.6%	 10	 2.2%
	 B	 8	 1.6%	 10	 2.2%
	 CCC	 9	 1.8%	 16	 3.5%
	 CC	 9	 1.8%	 9	 2.0%
	 C	 9	 1.8%	 16	 3.5%
	 D	 192	 38.4%	 191	 41.7%
	 X 	 232	 46.4%	 173	 37.8%
	TOTAL	 500	 	 458          	            
TABLE 01 / ASSET OWNERS in each rating category
DATA
BY REGIONBY Country
TABLE 03 / REGIONAL RANKINGTABLE 02 / COUNTRY RANKING TOP 10
1
2
3
5
4
6
7
8
1 0
NORWAY
AUSTRALIA
SWEDEN
FRANCE
NEW ZEALAND
NETHERLANDS
SOUTH AFRICA
DENMARK
CANADA
UNITED KINGDOM
9
1
2
3
5
4
6
7
7
=
=
AUSTRALASIA
SCANDINAVIA
CANADA
UNITED KINGDOM
REST OF EUROPE
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST  AFRICA
CENTRAL  SOUTH AMERICA
ASIA9
20
22
DATA
RATINGS KEY
MAP 01 / RATINGS GLOBAL OVERVIEW
BY WORLDVIEW
DATA
BY OVERVIEWBY TYPE
NUMBERRATED
PENSION FUNDS
INSURANCE COMPANIES
SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS
FOUNDATIONS/ENDOWMENTS
TOTAL
375
66
39
20
500
%OFSURVEY
75
1 3
08
04
100
NUMBERINTOP100
77
1 4
05
04
100
%INTOP100
20.5
21.2
12.8
20
TABLE 05 / THE 500 ASSET OWNERSTABLE 04 / ASSET OWNER TYPE RANKING
1
2
3
4
PENSION FUNDS
INSURANCE COMPANIES
FOUNDATIONS/ENDOWMENTS
SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS
24
2015	 COMPARISON	 ASSET OWNER NAME	 COUNTRY	 ASSET OWNER type	 2015
rank	 to 2014	 	 	 	RATING	
	 1	 +1	Local Government Super	Australia	Pension	 AAA
	 2	 +36	Kommunal Landspensjonskasse KLP	Norway	Pension 	 AAA
	 3	 0	CalPERS	USA	Pension 	 AAA  
	 4	 +28	ABP	Netherlands	Pension 	 AAA  
	 5	 -4	Environment Agency Pension Fund	UK	Pension	 AAA
	 6	 +21	New York State Common Retirement Fund (NYSCRF)	USA	Pension 	 AAA  
	 7	 -1	AustralianSuper	Australia	Pension 	 AAA  
	 8	 -4	Pensioenfonds Zorg en Welzijn (PFZW)	Netherlands	Pension 	 AAA 
	 9	 +54	 Fjärde AP-Fonden (AP4)	Sweden	Pension 	 AAA  
	 10	 +35	Pension  Health Benefits of United Methodist Church	USA	Pension 	 AA   
	 11	 +93	Andra AP-Fonden (AP2)	Sweden	Pension 	 AA  
	 12	 -2	Aviva plc - Insurance	UK	Insurance 	 AA  
	 13	 90	 First State Super	Australia	Pension 	 AA  
	 14	 +1	 California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS)	 USA	Pension 	 AA   
	 15	 -10	 VicSuper	 Australia	Pension 	 AA  
	 16	 +70	 Universities Superannuation Scheme	 UK	Pension 	 AA   
	 17	 -5	 CareSuper	 Australia	Pension 	 A     
	 18	 +80	 PKA A/S	 Denmark	Pension 	 A     
	 19	 +36	 New York City Employees Retirement System (NYCERS)	 USA	Pension 	 A     
	 20	 +35	 Teachers’ Retirement System of the City of New York (TRS)	 USA	Pension 	 A     
	 21	 +139	 United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund	 USA	Pension 	 A     
	 22	 +19	 Government Pension Fund - Global (GPFG Norway)	 Norway	Sovereign Wealth 	 A   
	 23	 N/A	 ERAFP (Etablissement de retraite additionnelle de la Fonction Publique)	 France	Pension 	 A     
	 24	 +10	 Allianz SE	 Germany	Insurance 	 A   
DATA
BY LEADERSBY PORTFOLIO RETURN
TABLE 07 / 2015 AODP global climate 500 top rated asset ownersTABLE 06 / 2014 PORTFOLIO RETURNS OF THE 9 AAA RATED ASSET OWNERS
RANK	 fund	 COUNTRY	 NET PORTFOLIO RETURN /  2014
	 1	Local Government Super	AUSTRALIA	 9%*	
	 2	Kommunal Landspensjonskasse KLP	NORWAY	 8.2% 	
	 3	CalPERS	USA	 6.5% 	
	 4	ABP	NETHERLANDS	 14.5%* 	
	 5	Environment Agency Pension Fund	UK	 8.4% 	
	 6	 New York State Common Retirement Fund (NYSCRF)	USA	 13.02%* 	
	 7	AustralianSuper	AUSTRALIA	 13.88%* 	
	 8	Pensioenfonds Zorg en Welzijn (PFZW)	NETHERLANDS	 15.5% 	
	 9	 Fjärde AP-Fonden (AP4)	SWEDEN	 15.7% 	
These Asset Owners returns are for the 2013-14 period
*
NOTES
THE AODP RATINGS
METHODOLOGY
The Asset Owners Disclosure Project (AODP) 2015 Global Climate 500 Index is built from data acquired directly
from the largest asset owners which are invited to respond to the survey and by a research team using publicly
available information.
The AODP research team use the collected data to score and rank the funds according to the AODP ratings
methodology which uses multiple data sets across five main aspects of an asset owner’s climate change
performance:
1. Transparency
2. Risk Management
3. LOW-CARBON INVESTMENT
4. Active Ownership
5. Incentive Chain Alignment
RANKING
WWW.AODPROJECT.NET
The AODP survey also ranks each asset owner on the basis of its score.
Copies of the AODP 2015 survey and the survey methodology are
available on the AODP website
RATING
Once the asset owners are ranked, a comparative rating is awarded to each asset owner. The AODP rating system
is a unique feature of the AODP survey. The larger survey meant that the benchmarks for all categories in the
AODP rating system were raised for the 2015 survey.
28
www.aodproject.net

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Asset Owners Global Climate Index 2015

  • 1. global Climate 500 INDEX 2015/
  • 2. TRANSPARENCY PREFACE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The AODP Global Climate 500 is the world standard for assessing the world’s largest investors on climate-risk management. In a year that has seen carbon and fossil fuel risk become centre stage in the climate debate, the question of who owns and manages the carbon is critical. In addition to measuring and reporting their portfolio exposure, asset owners have come under new pressure to adjust their core investment processes to consistently reduce this exposure and manage third parties whose models and investment decisions drive that exposure. Some of the questions we answer include: how are asset owners rising to the unique challenge of climate change? Are the leaders accelerating? Who are the largest laggards? Which country’s asset owners are most pro-active? Have endowments or foundations improved as a result of the divestment movement? The AODP Global Climate 500 has been produced by assessing the world’s largest 500 asset owners including pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, foundations and endowments. Funds are rated from AAA through to D grade, with an extra X category being added for those funds at the bottom that appear to be doing absolutely nothing to manage this critical risk. REPORT WRITTEN AND PRODUCED BY: RACHEL MADEIROS-MHENDE CFA, OLIVER WAGG AND JOSHUA SHEPPARD THE ASSET OWNERS DISCLOSURE PROJECT GIVES SPECIAL THANKS TO THE FOLLOWING PEOPLE IN PRODUCING THIS REPORT: VICTORIA BRYANT, LUKE FAY, ROBERT SCHWARZ, HUGUES LETOURNEAU, PAVEL KIRJANAS, MARK MCCAW, SERENA RITCHIE, MARCUS MORLEY, ELLIOT LAVERS, GINA SAHOTA, OLIVIER CASSARO, TRACY NGUYEN, NOZUKO MKETO, DANIEL GOCHER, AADESH GOSRANI, ANDREA BARBERIS THE ONGOING SUPPORT OF AODP’S FUNDERS IS ACKNOWLEDGED. A FULL LIST CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE (WWW.AODPROJECT.NET). THE VIEWS IN THIS REPORT REMAIN THOSE OF AODP. TRANSPARENCY
  • 3. The Asset Owners Disclosure Project (AODP) is an independent not-for-profit global organisation whose objective is to protect investments held by the world’s largest asset owners’ – pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, foundations and endowments – from the risks posed by climate change. It does this by working with asset owners to improve the level of disclosure and industry best practice in climate risk assessment and management. AODP researches and produces the annual Global Climate 500 Index, while developing stakeholder communication platforms and campaigns to drive the use of the index data. This creates a top-down and bottom-up approach to driving asset owners to manage climate risk. The AODP has a board of senior leaders with investment, risk-management, business, trade union, political, academic and environment backgrounds, including John Hewson, Bob Litterman, Sharon Burrows and John Connor. The index provides asset owners (and their stakeholders, members and beneficiaries) with valuable insight into the strategies deployed by some of the largest asset owners in the world in relation to climate change. The initiative encourages funds to engage in climate change-related investment risk assessment through the investment chain, often for the first time. Another initiative of the AODP, The Vital Few (www.areyouthevitalfew.org), piloted a community of superannuation/pension fund members in UK, Canada and Australia who have been inspired to take action to ensure investments made on their behalf provide for their future prosperity – both financially and environmentally. They do this by asking the pensions funds to disclose their current investment assets and their portfolio climate risk management strategies. CONTENTS PREFACE ABOUT AODP 02/ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 03/ KEY FINDINGS 05/ DATA 17 NOTES 27 KNOWN UNKNOWN ABOUT AODP 02
  • 4. With the December 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris looming large many people are doubtful the world’s nations will reach a solution without the successful realignment of the investment chain, the most important part of the global financial system. In turn, the most important link in the investment chain consists of long-term institutional investors, known as asset owners. Together they own over $70 trillion capital, which dwarfs the approximate $10 trillion required to effect a low-carbon transition. 2014 was an extraordinary year for climate-change investment. The 350.org fossil fuel divestment campaign has driven many funds to take a public stance on climate risk. 350’s great resources and penetration has meant that there are few asset owners in the world not considering how to communicate a climate risk strategy to their stakeholders. The ratings methodology behind the AODP Global Climate 500 is purely performance focussed and asset owners do not get points for commitments or media releases. Full, direct disclosure was received on nearly $5 trillion worth of assets under management, a doubling from last year’s direct disclosure. The key developments over the past year on climate risk communication include: / Regular announcements by asset owners on carbon-risk management / Proliferation of low-carbon investment initiatives / Greater acknowledgement of asset owners’ role in climate action by politicians and economic agencies / Greater commitments (and some action) by leading asset owners EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KEY DEVELOPMENTS CARBON COMPARISON WHERE IS THE MONEY TO SOLVE CLIMATE CHANGE? Only 7% of assets owners are able to calculate their emissions Only 1.4% of asset owners have reduced their carbon intensity from the previous year Only 2% of asset owners have an emissions intensity reduction target for next year 04 $Tn $37Tn $28Tn $10Tn 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 the asset owners INVESTMENT SPLIT 2% 50% 48% $1Tn LOW-CARBON INVESTMENT CLIMate change exposed INVESTMENTs COST TO SOLVE CLIMate change PENSION FUNDS INSURANCE COMPANIES FOUNDATIONS/ENDOWMENTS aodp research 2012 based on analysis of stem 2006 SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS OTHER INVESTMENTS 7% 1.4% 2%
  • 5. IF ALL FUNDS WERE ACCELERATING AT THE SAME RATE AS THE AAA FUNDS WE WOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO SOLVING CLIMATE CHANGE. The gap between climate risk management leaders and laggards is WIDENING. 06 KEY FINDINGS This year nine asset owners achieved the AAA rating, four more than last year. With the number of AAA-rated asset owners rising to nine, the still small group of leaders are accelerating progress. Many of the higher rated asset owners have significantly lower carbon emissions than their respective indices. We recommend underweighting carbon, however simply doing this will not create a low-carbon transition without a full blown capital switch and increase to their low-carbon investment. Asset owners are not going to be able to remain underweight whole sectors for long without adding alternative low-carbon investments to their portfolio. However, assuming that the equivalent low-carbon assets in each sector eventually balance this underweighting of carbon intensive assets would release hundreds of billions of dollars into the low-carbon economy. The implications are simple, but staggering: leaders are well on the way to solving climate change, but will only succeed if their peers join them in moving towards this tipping point of a capital switch into low-carbon. With this year’s ratings methodology being recalibrated more towards performance, the performance of these AAA funds is even more impressive. This gap between top and bottom is exacerbated by an increase in the number of laggard (D and X rated) funds. The size of the leadership group rating A or above is interesting. The mean assets under management (AUM) for the AODP index is $72 billion, but the mean AUM for the leadership group rated A and above is actually $145 billion. This shows that generally speaking the larger asset owners have built the kind of internal capacity that allows them to more pro-actively manage climate risks. However, it is worth noting that size is clearly not a factor in leadership per se as there are significant leadership examples such as Local Government Super in Australia that ranked number 1 in the index, with only $7.5 billion under management.
  • 6. Climate laggards continue to be stuck with ineffective climate-risk management systems, and are not moving at all. There is still a general crisis of transparency amongst asset owners, but the tipping point is close. KEY FINDINGS There were in total 232 X-rated asset owners this year and 192 D-rated, for a total of 424 laggard asset owners, or 85% of the industry. This year the number of direct disclosers to AODP doubled. Last year, AODP introduced a new ratings band below D – the X rating. This was to highlight those asset owners that are doing nothing material to manage the financially material risks associated with climate change. This year the number of X-rated asset owners has actually increased by 59, party because AODP decided to remove credit in the ratings methodology for general policy commitments that in reality had no evidence of execution or implementation. With no meaningful points for transparency, some of these asset owners actually lost points from last year’s score. For those asset owners with fiduciary exposure, such as pension funds and possibly endowments, it is only a matter of time before the recently announced UK initiative involving AODP and environmental lawyers ClientEarth is replicated in other jurisdictions. In addition to the prospect of future legal escalation around fiduciary duty, there is a new pressure that is building on all asset owners to do better, which comes from their peers. Impressive action by leading asset owners to minimise risks to their stakeholders’ funds, is being diluted by laggard asset owners resisting such change either by refusing to do the requisite analysis or to change processes, policies or culture. While the AODP index is widely recognised by asset owners as the leading framework for disclosure, a large number of them chose not to disclose directly. In AODP’s experience this is for two reasons: Firstly asset owners do not want members discovering that they have no other solution than to rely on their fund managers to bail them out of a carbon crisis, or that they rely purely on traditional strategic asset allocations to manage climate risk. The second reason is more encouraging as many asset owners have indicated to AODP that they are midstream in the development of a carbon-risk management plan and that they would rather not disclose anything until they are able to portray their fund’s conduct in a more favourable light. While we are still concerned about the level of overall transparency, this year’s improvement in the number of disclosing asset owners together with the promises for next year give us confidence that we are close to a tipping point. None of this direct transparency impacts our ability to rate asset owners however, as AODP rates the asset owners regardless of direct disclosure and those asset owners that are active or commencing their journey are generally proud of their achievements, and keen to show their stakeholders that they have nothing to hide. 08
  • 7. Many funds have simply not done their homework and are relying on short-term oriented fund managers to save them in the long term. Only a very few asset owners have implemented some protection against a financial crisis. KEY FINDINGS Only 17 asset owners have done any systematic scenario analysis on climate risk. Protection can only be afforded by creating and implementing a diversified hedging strategy. The AODP Best Practice Methodology that is linked to the ratings methodology describes seven different but parallel market-based pathways to a low-carbon economy, any of which could have the same devastating impact on a portfolio as if governments were forced to implement 2 degree carbon-pricing. The traditional processes within many asset owners make portfolio wide assessment of systemic risks difficult and the default strategy of many asset owners is to assume that their fund managers will be able to sell and exit any portfolio wide risks once such an acceleration of climate risk begins. This is of course a fallacy as when it comes to systemic risks such as climate change (or sub-prime mortgages) there will be no liquidity in markets for stranded assets and so it will be impossible to protect value. Some of the best performing leaders in this year’s index have recognised this and have made statements about abandoning indexation as an ineffective climate risk management tool, essentially recognising that short- term markets continue to misprice the risk. These asset owners are using low carbon indexes and other asset classes to hedge climate risk while addressing the distinctive climate risk issues within their equity portfolios to form an overall approach. Given the lack of mitigation options available for climate risk, protection can only be afforded members by those managing their assets, creating and implementing a diversified hedging strategy. This might include some divestment, some underweighting, strong engagement with blue chip high-carbon companies and a low carbon allocation. In particular, the low-carbon investments are the ones that will increase most in value once high- carbon investments are priced out of the market. The reason for this is because any carbon pricing mechanism implemented will create higher earnings forecasts and thus higher valuations for assets, such as renewable energy projects which currently have to compete on largely equal terms, as many investors have not allowed any forward carbon pricing to impact the investment models of such assets. Whilst innovation is one driver of competitiveness for clean assets against fossil fuel based ones, there are other forces such as attempts at carbon pricing and off market capital shifts by some leading investors who have decided to reduce their high-carbon investments -some base this on scenario analysis others do so for ethical reasons. 10
  • 8. There is an increasing sense of accountability around risk management. Change is possible. KEY FINDINGS Many asset owners have improved their communications functions in the past year realising the increasing pressure to explain their investment positions. Changing fund processes to better manage climate risk is achievable without significant return sacrifice. Sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies have not made much ground in recognising accountability over climate risk to their stakeholders. However, pension funds, foundations and endowments certainly have. Whilst foundations and endowments do not have members as such, they recognise the responsibility for enhanced stewardship that comes with advantageous tax treatments of their capital and some have stakeholder groups such as university alumni and committees who are deeply aware of climate risk. Many pension funds have recognized that the age of new member accountability and financial democracy has arrived. The divestment movement run by 350.org and similar movements such as Share Action’s Greenlight campaign and AODP’s Vital Few have generated a new recognition from pension funds about the need to explain their long-term strategies. Many asset owners have improved their communications functions in the past year realising the increasing pressure to explain their investment positions, but also as a genuine attempt to communicate to peers the progress that is possible. However, some asset owners are still using the media to highlight particular examples of progress without being transparent on their overall position leading to accusations of ‘green wash’. Enough leaders have emerged to prove that changing fund processes to better manage climate risk is achievable without significant return sacrifice and without immediate government carbon pricing. We would normally expect there to be some cost to the implementation of a climate hedging strategy that might in the short term inhibit the returns of asset owners implementing climate-risk management strategies. But so far this has not been the case. However, these stronger returns may be medium term only as asset owners looking to underweight carbon in the last few years, as part of their hedging strategy, would have done exceptionally well due to the collapse in fossil fuel based commodity prices. 12
  • 9. 12 REDUCING PORTFOLIO CARBON EXPOSURE IS KEY TO MANAGING CLIMATE RISK. KEY FINDINGS Only 7% of asset owners calculate their portfolio carbon footprint and only 1.4% have a target to reduce this. A key metric that AODP applies to its ratings methodology is the level of portfolio carbon exposure, strategies to reduce the exposure and the success or failure of these strategies. Currently, only 35 asset owners (7%) calculate their portfolio carbon footprint and only seven asset owners (1.4%) have a target to reduce this. This is despite the encouragement by various initiatives such as the Montreal Carbon Pledge, run by the UN Principles for Responsible Investment. However, there have been some exceptional examples of funds reducing their portfolio carbon exposure within certain asset classes. For example one of our AAA-rated asset owners reduced its portfolio carbon exposure in their equities portfolio by 23% in a single year. With the growth of-low carbon indices we expect to see this kind of example increase next year.
  • 10. HOW ARE THE WORLD’S LEADING INVESTORS MANAGING CLIMATE RISK?
  • 11. AODP GLOBAL CLIMATE 500 2015 DATA rating asset owners 2015 asset owners 2013-14 PER CATEGORY 2015 (%) PER CATEGORY 2013-14 (%) BY RATING 18 These funds were rated X by the AODP analyst team where they could find no evidence at all on how these funds are managing climate change. X AAA 9 1.8% 5 1 .1% AA 7 1.4% 10 2.2% A 8 1.6% 12 2.6% BBB 9 1.8% 6 1.3% BB 8 1.6% 10 2.2% B 8 1.6% 10 2.2% CCC 9 1.8% 16 3.5% CC 9 1.8% 9 2.0% C 9 1.8% 16 3.5% D 192 38.4% 191 41.7% X 232 46.4% 173 37.8% TOTAL 500 458 TABLE 01 / ASSET OWNERS in each rating category
  • 12. DATA BY REGIONBY Country TABLE 03 / REGIONAL RANKINGTABLE 02 / COUNTRY RANKING TOP 10 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 1 0 NORWAY AUSTRALIA SWEDEN FRANCE NEW ZEALAND NETHERLANDS SOUTH AFRICA DENMARK CANADA UNITED KINGDOM 9 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 7 = = AUSTRALASIA SCANDINAVIA CANADA UNITED KINGDOM REST OF EUROPE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA MIDDLE EAST AFRICA CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA ASIA9 20
  • 13. 22 DATA RATINGS KEY MAP 01 / RATINGS GLOBAL OVERVIEW BY WORLDVIEW
  • 14. DATA BY OVERVIEWBY TYPE NUMBERRATED PENSION FUNDS INSURANCE COMPANIES SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS FOUNDATIONS/ENDOWMENTS TOTAL 375 66 39 20 500 %OFSURVEY 75 1 3 08 04 100 NUMBERINTOP100 77 1 4 05 04 100 %INTOP100 20.5 21.2 12.8 20 TABLE 05 / THE 500 ASSET OWNERSTABLE 04 / ASSET OWNER TYPE RANKING 1 2 3 4 PENSION FUNDS INSURANCE COMPANIES FOUNDATIONS/ENDOWMENTS SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS 24
  • 15. 2015 COMPARISON ASSET OWNER NAME COUNTRY ASSET OWNER type 2015 rank to 2014 RATING 1 +1 Local Government Super Australia Pension AAA 2 +36 Kommunal Landspensjonskasse KLP Norway Pension AAA 3 0 CalPERS USA Pension AAA 4 +28 ABP Netherlands Pension AAA 5 -4 Environment Agency Pension Fund UK Pension AAA 6 +21 New York State Common Retirement Fund (NYSCRF) USA Pension AAA 7 -1 AustralianSuper Australia Pension AAA 8 -4 Pensioenfonds Zorg en Welzijn (PFZW) Netherlands Pension AAA 9 +54 Fjärde AP-Fonden (AP4) Sweden Pension AAA 10 +35 Pension Health Benefits of United Methodist Church USA Pension AA 11 +93 Andra AP-Fonden (AP2) Sweden Pension AA 12 -2 Aviva plc - Insurance UK Insurance AA 13 90 First State Super Australia Pension AA 14 +1 California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) USA Pension AA 15 -10 VicSuper Australia Pension AA 16 +70 Universities Superannuation Scheme UK Pension AA 17 -5 CareSuper Australia Pension A 18 +80 PKA A/S Denmark Pension A 19 +36 New York City Employees Retirement System (NYCERS) USA Pension A 20 +35 Teachers’ Retirement System of the City of New York (TRS) USA Pension A 21 +139 United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund USA Pension A 22 +19 Government Pension Fund - Global (GPFG Norway) Norway Sovereign Wealth A 23 N/A ERAFP (Etablissement de retraite additionnelle de la Fonction Publique) France Pension A 24 +10 Allianz SE Germany Insurance A DATA BY LEADERSBY PORTFOLIO RETURN TABLE 07 / 2015 AODP global climate 500 top rated asset ownersTABLE 06 / 2014 PORTFOLIO RETURNS OF THE 9 AAA RATED ASSET OWNERS RANK fund COUNTRY NET PORTFOLIO RETURN / 2014 1 Local Government Super AUSTRALIA 9%* 2 Kommunal Landspensjonskasse KLP NORWAY 8.2% 3 CalPERS USA 6.5% 4 ABP NETHERLANDS 14.5%* 5 Environment Agency Pension Fund UK 8.4% 6 New York State Common Retirement Fund (NYSCRF) USA 13.02%* 7 AustralianSuper AUSTRALIA 13.88%* 8 Pensioenfonds Zorg en Welzijn (PFZW) NETHERLANDS 15.5% 9 Fjärde AP-Fonden (AP4) SWEDEN 15.7% These Asset Owners returns are for the 2013-14 period *
  • 16. NOTES THE AODP RATINGS METHODOLOGY The Asset Owners Disclosure Project (AODP) 2015 Global Climate 500 Index is built from data acquired directly from the largest asset owners which are invited to respond to the survey and by a research team using publicly available information. The AODP research team use the collected data to score and rank the funds according to the AODP ratings methodology which uses multiple data sets across five main aspects of an asset owner’s climate change performance: 1. Transparency 2. Risk Management 3. LOW-CARBON INVESTMENT 4. Active Ownership 5. Incentive Chain Alignment RANKING WWW.AODPROJECT.NET The AODP survey also ranks each asset owner on the basis of its score. Copies of the AODP 2015 survey and the survey methodology are available on the AODP website RATING Once the asset owners are ranked, a comparative rating is awarded to each asset owner. The AODP rating system is a unique feature of the AODP survey. The larger survey meant that the benchmarks for all categories in the AODP rating system were raised for the 2015 survey. 28