3. flightglobal.com/consultancy
Asia has huge growth potential
3
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam China India UK
GDP/capita($)
Seats/month/’000head
Seats per thousand pop'n GDP per capita
China appears under-served, compared to other Asian countries
Source: FlightGlobal schedules, World Bank
4. flightglobal.com/consultancy
Airline fleet composition varies widely by region
4
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America
Numberofaircraftinservice
Regional Turboprops Regional Jets Narrowbody Jets Widebody Jets
Far fewer regional jets in Asia, but more twin-aisles
Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer, Passenger/Combi/QC usage.
5. flightglobal.com/consultancy
Airline fleet composition varies widely by region
5
This shows up more clearly in terms of fleet percentage
Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America
Proportionoffleetinservice
Regional Turboprops Regional Jets Narrowbody Jets Widebody Jets
6. flightglobal.com/consultancy 6
Asian sub-regions also show key differences
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
China Indian sub-continent SE Asia Australasia NE Asia
Proportionoffleetinservice
Regional Turboprops Regional Jets Narrowbody Jets Widebody Jets
China has very few regional aircraft, and surprisingly few WBs
Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer
7. flightglobal.com/consultancy 7
Widebody usage has declined
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2011 2016 Backlog 2006 2011 2016 Backlog
Proportionoffleetinservice
Regional Turboprops Regional Jets Narrowbody Jets Widebody Jets
Trend has been to single-aisles, driven by Intra-Asian growth
Asia, excluding China China
Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer, Flight Ascend Consultancy analysis
8. flightglobal.com/consultancy
Rapid capacity growth on many Asian routes
8
More frequencies, but little aircraft size increase
50
100
150
200
250
300
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Asia-N Am Asia-W
Europe
China-N
Am
China-W
Eur
China Dom. China-Int'l CTU-all PEK-Dom. PEK-Int'l Indonesia
Dom.
Averageseats/flight
Averageannualgrowth2009-16
Frequency Growth Size growth Distance growth Av seats 2009 Av seats 2016
Source: FlightGlobal schedules data, Aug 2009 to 2016
9. flightglobal.com/consultancy 9
Top 5 airports in each region now a similar size
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
PEK HND HKG PVG CGK ATL LAX ORD DFW JFK LHR IST CDG FRA AMS
Scheduledseatsdeparting
Aug2016(m)
All 15 airports handling >55 million passengers per year
Asia N America Europe
Source: FlightGlobal schedules data, Aug 2016
10. flightglobal.com/consultancy
Asian airports have lower concentration of airlines
Typically less dominated by one hub airline – less transfer traffic
PEK
PVG
HKG
CTU
CGK
BKK
HND
LHR
FRA
CDG
IST
DFW
ATL
ORD
LAX
Source: FlightGlobal schedules data, number of seats offered Aug 2016
11. flightglobal.com/consultancy
Intra-Asian capacity/service level examples
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
Departures/week/route
Average seats/departure
Air China China Southern China Eastern Cathay/Dragonair Korean Air Garuda
11
PEK
SHA
CTU
ICN
HKG
PVG
CAN
Chinese hubs using similar aircraft sizes & frequency levels
CGK
Source: FlightGlobal schedules data, Aug 2016, bubble size proportional to no.of destinations served
12. flightglobal.com/consultancy
Intra-Asian capacity/service level examples
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
Departures/week/route
Average seats/departure
Air China China Southern China Eastern Cathay/Dragonair Korean Air Garuda Delta
12
PEK
SHA
CTU
ICN
HKG
PVG
CAN
US hubs use smaller aircraft, but offer much higher frequency
CGK
ATL
Source: FlightGlobal schedules data, Aug 2016, bubble size proportional to no.of destinations served
18. flightglobal.com/consultancy 18
Conclusions
Most countries in Asia are still in the relatively early stages of air transport development
Liberalisation is ongoing, but still much government involvement in
airlines/airports/ATC/fare levels
Airline consolidation likely over the coming decade
Initially domestically, as competition leads to over-provision of air service in some
markets
Regional / international consolidation more complex
In terms of constraints, runway/terminal capacity is being provided, but ATC is usually the
limiting factor in more developed markets
Opportunities for optimisation of networks, more transfer traffic at new airports, upsizing of
aircraft to help alleviate congestion, and new long-haul connections as economies grow
