The document presents an analysis of fine-tuning probability calculations by Mark Tabladillo, focusing on how original scientists determine the numerator and denominator in probability assessments. It outlines three scenarios for both numerator and denominator, emphasizing the significance of properly establishing these values. The presentation aims to guide discussions on the methodology behind probability calculations in a scientific context.

1. Analyzing Fine Tuning
Probability Calculations
Mark Tabladillo Ph.D.
December 19, 2014
@marktaborg

2. Introduction
Some fine tuning arguments include probability calculations
This presentation breaks down the questions to ask the original scientists about how
they calculated their probabilities

3. What is a probability calculation?
For the purpose of this video, we consider a simple probability calculation
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 ≤ 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟

4. Denominator: Three possibilities
Zero: The calculation is infinite
Infinite (or approaching infinite): The calculation is zero (or approaching zero)
Some number representing the possible base range

5. Numerator: Three possibilities
Zero: The calculation is zero
Some number less than the denominator
Equal to the denominator: The calculation is one
Denominator
Numerator

6. Two Questions to Ask
How did you establish the denominator
How did you establish the numerator
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟
Denominator
Numerator

7. Thanks!
Linked In
@marktaborg
Mark Tabladillo
Atlanta, GA