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Amino acid cost and supply chain analysis for cultivated meat
Watch the recording: https://youtu.be/CZBlrxJ4x28 Amino acids are among the largest cost drivers in cultivated meat production, but a new GFI analysis shows clear opportunities to lower costs and scale production. This webinar explored findings from a new white paper that evaluates pathways to unlock a cost-effective, scalable amino acid supply for the cultivated meat industry. This first-of-its-kind analysis draws on real-world price data, industry interviews, and future demand modeling to identify where cost drivers and supply bottlenecks may emerge and how innovation can keep pace. Review the slide deck to learn: -- Why the amino acid cost contribution to cultivated meat production is significantly lower than previously reported -- How agricultural byproducts show promise as affordable alternative amino acid sources -- Which amino acids pose the greatest long-term cost and supply risks This analysis explores how suppliers, producers, researchers, and policymakers can work together to build a resilient, affordable amino acid supply chain that helps unlock scalable, sustainable cultivated meat production.
Amino acid cost and supply chain analysis for cultivated meat
- 1. Amino acid costand supply chain analysis for cultivated meat Elliot Swartz, PhD Sr. Principal Scientist, Cultivated Meat, GFI December 9, 2025 @elliotswartz Linkedin elliots@gfi.org Marie Gibbons, MSc MG Consulting marieelizabethgibbons@gmail.com Linkedin https://www.mariegibbonsconsulting.com/
- 2. Agenda 1 Introduction toGFI and context for this work 2 Methods and scenarios 3 Results: amino acids 4 Results: hydrolysates 5 Conclusions, recommendations, and future directions 6 Q&A
- 3. GFI officially earnedCandid’s 2024 Platinum Seal of Transparency — obtained by less than 1% of nonprofits — reflecting our commitment to maximum impact, efficiency, and inclusion. GFI is a 501(c)(3)nonprofit, science-driven think tank helping to build a more sustainable, secure, and just protein supply. We focus on three key areas of work: Science and Technology Advancing foundational, open-access research in alternative proteins and creating a thriving research and training ecosystem around these game-changing fields. Corporate Engagement Conducting research, sharing insights, and engaging with the private sector to catalyze innovation and investment in alternative proteins. Policy Advocating for fair policy and public research funding for alternative proteins. 3
- 4. 4 We work asa force multiplier, bringing the expertise of our departments to the rest of the world. GFI is a global network of nonprofit organizations Our work is powered by philanthropic support. 225+ global employees
- 5. Why are aminoacids important?
- 6. 6 Amino acids area known cost driver of cultivated meat production The bulk of cellular biomass in proliferating cells is made from amino acids. Previous work suggested that amino acids could be responsible for up to 50% of the total cost of production. Facility 1 Facility 2 Source: Humbird, 2021 Catch 22: Amino acid costs only become low when the cultivated meat industry is large. But high costs during the early stages of the industry would likely prevent industry growth.
- 7. 7 Today’s amino acidsupply chain Amino acids used in media are produced primarily from individual fermentation processes. Many suppliers are concentrated in China, and only some amino acids are produced at very large scales. Simplified visualization. In practice, media suppliers often have localized facilities to optimize shipping and logistics by region.
- 8. 8 Are hydrolysates animportant part of the future amino acid supply chain? Facility 1 Facility 2 Cost if soy hydrolysates are used as an amino acid supply at $2/kg hydrolysate. $3.10 $4.25 Soybean hydrolysate contains an amino acid profile that fills most essential amino acid requirements of an animal cell. For cultivated meat, it has been hypothesized that hydrolysates from plants, microalgae, or other organisms could be used as the primary source of amino acids. Source: Humbird, 2021
- 9. Study goals andmethods
- 10. Acknowledgements 10 Amanda Bess,PhD Sr. Analysis Program Manager Stakeholder participation: … and many others who wish to remain anonymous.
- 11. 11 Analysis goals The analysisaimed to evaluate the following questions: 1. How many metric tons (MT) of total and individual amino acids are needed to meet a future 250,000 MT/yr cultivated meat industry? 2. What is the anticipated cost contribution of amino acids per liter of media and per kg of cultivated meat, and how does this compare to prior estimates? 3. Which raw materials or hydrolysates are the most promising candidates for supplying amino acids, and what would they need to cost to be competitive with amino acids from fermentation? All aspects of the analysis were informed by available public data and structured interviews with aforementioned stakeholders.
- 12. 12 Methods and scenarios:Bioconversion efficiency The total mass of amino acids (AA) needed to produce 1 kg of cultivated meat (CM) will be an important determinant of cost. In this analysis, we assumed a range of 200-650 g AA/kg CM. Estimates sourced from Sinke, 2023; Pasitka, 2024; Humbird, 2021; and stakeholder interviews.
- 13. 13 Methods and scenarios:Media formulations Cultivated meat production requires a higher concentration of amino acids than a typical DMEM/F12 formulation. FSF4 media and a modified CHO media were used to represent commercially relevant nutritional densities of amino acids. (Pasitka, 2024) FSF4 is a serum-free, chemically-defined formulation developed by SCiFi Foods and acquired by GFI. The complete formulation is published here.
- 14. 14 Methods and scenarios:Amino acid prices Price ranges for food-grade amino acids were derived from real purchase quotes for <100 kg quantities. Feed-grade prices sourced from aggregate supplier sites (e.g., Alibaba) were used to represent a lower bound.
- 15. Results: Amino acid projectedvolumes and supply
- 16. 16 Total volume ofamino acids We calculated an estimated total of 50-163 kTA of amino acids would be needed to produce 250 kTA of cultivated meat. The exact amount depends on each estimate’s amino acid bioconversion efficiency. Next we calculated the projected volumes of individual amino acids
- 17. 17 High volume aminoacids Arginine, glutamine, and serine had the highest projected demand, with volumes often exceeding over 10,000 MT annually, depending on media formulation and bioconversion efficiency. Projected volumes for other amino acids shown in the full report. Blue bars represent the range of bioconversion efficiencies. Red Xs represent the modified CHO formulation with the least efficient conversion (650 g AA/kg CM). How do these volumes compare with current global production estimates?
- 18. 18 Potential supply bottlenecksfor amino acids The future CM industry’s demand for asparagine, glutamine, histidine, proline, serine, tyrosine, isoleucine, and leucine could potentially outstrip the current global supply for these individual amino acids. Special attention should be paid to the production capacity and supply for these amino acids as the cultivated meat sector scales to 250 kTA and beyond. Note: Data for current AA production volumes is considered lower quality.
- 19. Results: Costs of aminoacids and cost contribution to media and CM production
- 20. • Previous priceestimates were more representative of pharma-grade prices. • Food-grade prices, based on real world quotes for purchases of less than 100 kg, tend to be between ~$5-50/kg for most amino acids. Food-grade amino acids cost up to 10x less than prices assumed in previous analyses. Amino acids cost less than previously believed 20 How do these prices contribute to $/L media estimates?
- 21. Amino acid costcontributions to media ranged from ~$0.02 to $0.17/L, depending on the formulation and price of amino acids. This suggests that total media costs under $0.20/L (red line) are achievable, aligning with recent claims made by companies in the sector. Amino acid cost contribution to media ($/L) 21 How do these prices contribute to $/kg CM estimates?
- 22. Amino acid costcontribution to meat ($/kg CM) 22 Amino acid cost contributions to CM ranged from ~$1.19 to $15.22/kg CM for scenarios with FSF4 media, depending on bioconversion efficiency assumed. Lower prices combined with more efficient production suggest amino acid cost contributions could fall below $5/kg CM (red line), a major improvement over previous estimates. Model results using the modified CHO media are shown in the full report. Which individual amino acids are driving the cost?
- 23. Individual amino acidcost drivers 23 Arginine, asparagine, histidine, serine, and sometimes glutamine were individual cost drivers. Serine stood out, accounting for between 16-38% of total amino acid costs, depending on the price scenario and media formulation.
- 24. Results: Identifying candidate hydrolysatesfor amino acid supply
- 25. Identifying candidate hydrolysateblends 25 We assembled the amino acid compositions of 50 different raw materials and commercial peptones/hydrolysates, and compared them with FSF4 media. A ratio of 1 or greater indicates that 1 g of the material meets or exceeds the concentration in 1 L of FSF4 media. The greater the ratio, the deeper blue the color.
- 26. Identifying candidate hydrolysateblends 26 No single material could meet the entire nutritional demand without impractical amounts. Therefore, our models assume fermentation-based glutamine, arginine, asparagine, cystine, and serine are spiked in individually when needed, rather than fully supplied by hydrolysates.
- 27. 27 Identifying candidate hydrolysateblends We used ChatGPT* to identify candidate blends (combinations up to 3) that would satisfy the amino acid requirements of our media. We analyzed 4 different scenarios to see how results differ between media formulations and material datasets: *AI-identified hits were replicated using Excel’s Solver add-in and confirmed with manual calculation.
- 28. 28 Combinations of peaand potato peptones stood out as being good candidates for supplying amino acids in each of the media formulations. The modified CHO media (Scenario B) required more material to meet the increased amino acid demand and had more variation in materials, driven by higher proline requirements: Identifying candidate hydrolysate blends: Scenarios A & B Each scenario assumes glutamine, arginine, asparagine, cystine, and serine are individually spiked in. These results should be viewed as guiding examples — several limitations exist!
- 29. 29 Identifying candidate hydrolysateblends: Scenarios C & D Each scenario assumes glutamine, arginine, asparagine, cystine, and serine are individually spiked in. These results should be viewed as guiding examples — several limitations exist! Scenario C, which limited inputs to commercial hydrolysates, largely replicated the results from Scenario A. Scenario D, limited to raw materials only, had a greater diversity of materials and required more material, as the amino acid content in unhydrolyzed material is lower.
- 30. 30 Here we cansee how the combination of potato peptone, pea peptone, and yeast extract complement each other to approach the desired amino acid needs to produce 1 kg CM using FSF4 media at 350g/kg CM bioconversion efficiency. Our downloadable workbook has embedded calculators so you can derive your own candidate blends using other datasets and scenarios. Example results of the top hydrolysate blend Next, we determined hydrolysate pricing windows to target
- 31. 31 We calculated whateach candidate hydrolysate blend would need to cost to be at parity with media composed solely of fermentation-based amino acids. These costs were based on the total mass of the blend needed, along with the amount of spiked amino acids added. The range was $1.51-$11.27/kg hydrolysate blend, providing a target pricing window for hydrolysate development. Hydrolysate cost targets and speaking of hydrolysate development…
- 32. 32 Hydrolysate limitations/technical gaps Batch-to-batchvariability While there is enthusiasm for hydrolysates and current testing within R&D programs, near-term CM products are unlikely to use them for amino acid supplementation until these challenges are resolved. Solubility issues Elevated ammonia concentrations Extensive optimization needed limited compositional data potential increased regulatory burden possible antinutritional factors
- 33. 33 Serine, glutamine, asparagine, histidine,proline, and arginine were the highest-risk amino acids due to: - high inclusion rates in media - elevated prices - low production volumes - manufacturing complexity - poor candidacy for hydrolysate replacement Summary of findings These six amino acids present opportunities for further innovation and focus of cost-lowering efforts.
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- 36. Key takeaways: ❖ Aminoacid costs are significantly lower than previous estimates, which corresponds to a more optimistic outlook for cost-competitive cultivated meat. ❖ As the cultivated meat industry scales, demand could strain global supply for certain amino acids — proactive planning will be needed to prevent bottlenecks. ❖ Hydrolysates hold long-term potential, but a lot of work is still needed before they are routinely used as a basal media nutrient supply.
- 37. Recommendations and futuredirections
- 38. 38 Ensuring industry readiness AAsuppliers & CM industry Scientists Governments & policymakers ❖ Pooled procurement from the CM industry for specific amino acids can create strong demand signals to incentivize buildout of new supplier capacity. ❖ Governments can incentivize onshoring of amino acid supply through grants, tax incentives, and low-interest loans to create new jobs, leverage local feedstocks, and mitigate risk of supply chain consolidation.
- 39. 39 Developing hydrolysates forbasal media replacement Scientists Startups ❖ Use the strategy and price targets in this analysis to develop cost-effective processes and narrow the search space for hydrolysate testing. ❖ Create open-access datasets on hydrolysate composition and performance to use AI/ML techniques to assist in solving the complex challenges of hydrolysate use.
- 40. 40 Defining “CM-grade” mediaspecifications AA suppliers & CM industry Regulatory agencies & experts Scientists ❖ Developing fit-for-purpose “CM-grade” specifications for media inputs (e.g., endotoxin, heavy metals, bioburden, animal-origin-free, and other impurities of concern) could help to reduce costs and streamline regulatory review.
- 41. 41 Closing data gaps Scientists ❖Narrow the bioconversion efficiency range (200-650g AA/kg CM) with empirical data from real-world processes. ❖ Amino acid suppliers can provide better estimates for current production volumes of amino acids suitable for CM. ❖ Publishing or acquiring additional open-access, commercially relevant media formulations. AA suppliers & CM industry
- 42. 42 Environmental impacts Scientists AA suppliers &CM industry ❖ The CM industry is likely to predominantly rely on AAs from fermentation for the foreseeable future. ❖ Data from real-world, food-grade amino acid production will need to enter environmental databases to perform more accurate life cycle assessments of CM production.
- 43. Download this report: https://bit.ly/47UZ5u3 Formore resources, sign up for GFI’s newsletter: gfi.org/insider Contact media@gfi.org for media inquiries For all other questions, contact: elliots@gfi.org Thank you!