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Conference Call 1Q’22, May 3rd, 2022
Alicorp representatives:
Alfredo Pérez, CEO
Manuel Romero, CFO
Patricio Jaramillo, VP Consumer Goods
[ALFREDO PÉREZ]
Intro:
Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today for Alicorp’s First
Quarter 2022 Earnings Call.
We will start today´s call by giving you an overview of relevant events impacting our
business; starting with an update on Peru, followed by an explanation on what we are
seeing in terms of inflationary pressures, and internal as well as external factors that
mitigate some of those pressures. Then, we will move on to an update on our efficiency
program that aims at protecting margins without impacting our market positioning.
I will continue with comments on our consolidated financial results, followed by Patricio
and Manuel who will cover our financial results by business unit and an update on
liquidity and our balance sheet. At the end, before the Q&A, I will take the floor again for
an update on our guidance for the full year 2022.
Now, let’s move on to slide 5 for an update on Peru´s macro situation
On the sanitary front, indicators are looking more and more promising, which has
enabled the government to lift the outdoor mask mandate. Vaccination levels are high
with 81% of eligible population -people over 5 years old- having already received at least
2 doses. This has allowed higher mobility rates, which have already surpassed pre-
pandemic levels.
Nevertheless, as in many Latin American countries, Peruvian families have not been
able to recover their disposable income as a consequence of higher unemployment rates
and lower formality. This, combined with 24-year high inflation rates leads to significant
pressure for Peru´s most vulnerable families. In this situation, the government has
reacted with some temporary tax reliefs, exonerating the value added tax for five basic
products: bread, chicken, eggs, sugar and pasta. In addition, also the selective excise
tax has been cut for the 84 and 90 octane gasoline. In line with this new regulation,
Alicorp is no longer charging the value added tax for our pasta products and pre-cooked
breads. We hope that these reductions will translate into lower prices for the end
consumers. However, this will depend primarily on the rest of the value chain
This challenging situation has also led to protests during the last months. During April,
we experienced a week-long strike of transport workers and a curfew in Lima imposed
by the government. Fortunately, there were no major consequences for our company´s
logistics and we could secure the availability of basic goods everywhere in the country
with some preventative measures.
Let’s move on to slide 6 to discuss the impacts of the ongoing upward trend in
commodity prices
As you know, since mid-2020, we have experienced steep increases in commodity
prices. These increases have accelerated recently, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine
conflict and several climatic events, hindering the supply of several key commodities.
This is already generating tight demand-supply balance, which we expect will continue
over the next quarters with higher prices for commodities in the international markets.
As a consumer goods company, our costs of goods sold are directly affected by this
situation. As you can see in the slide, our cost structure has an important component of
agricultural raw materials whose prices have increased significantly during the first
quarter and have continued increasing so far into the second quarter. For example, as
Russia and Ukraine are responsible for 29% of the global wheat exports, the international
price of wheat increased by an additional 17% since the beginning of 2022. Moreover,
the price of soybean oil, which is our most representative cost for our edible oil category
has increased by 47% year-to-date.
In addition, the price of crude oil climbed because of higher activity around the world and
more constrained supply due to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, putting
pressure not only on our logistic costs, but also in our packaging and on all the oil
derivatives used as raw materials in our home and personal care platforms.
In direct response to these relevant increases in our costs, we have accelerated right-
sizing and design to value initiatives. Moreover, following the situation we experienced
in the second half of 2021, we are cautiously passing through our higher costs via pricing
actions, ensuring that our clients and all our channels have sufficient time to adjust to
new prices. We are happy to announce that so far, these initiatives have proven
successful, and we continue to recover volumes and market shares in key categories.
Additionally, our company has first-class capabilities for the procurement and hedging of
commodities, managed by a highly experienced team. Thus, our company practices
active and constant hedging of our most representative agricultural commodities, such
as wheat, soybean oil, soybean meal, among others. Our strategy aims at layering our
exposure and providing the necessary visibility and timing for our business units to react
to the cost evolution through pricing, other revenue management initiatives and
efficiencies strategies. These skills represent for us an important competitive advantage
that leaves us in a relatively favorable position when compared with our competitors, that
tend to have shorter positions and less sophisticated hedging strategies.
Another factor that helps us mitigate our exposure to commodity price inflation comes
from the composition of our business portfolio. As 2021 showed, our Crushing business
unit serves as a natural hedge for other business units with exposure to commodity
prices. The profitability of the Crushing business depends on the crush margin which has
a positive correlation to commodity prices. Even when the price of soybean and
sunflower seed increases for us, in these scenarios, higher commodity prices lead to
incremental EBITDA thanks to higher crush margins.
Finally, another factor that helped us is the 4.5% appreciation of the average exchange
rate of the Peruvian Sol against the US Dollar compared to the previous quarter.
Now, let´s move on to slide number 7 for an update on our efficiency program
announced two quarters ago
We continue on track with the multiannual efficiencies program announced last year and
expect to deliver over 200 million Soles in run rate savings by 2023. The program aims
at supporting profitability, in line with our strategic prioritization, without impacting market
positioning.
As we have already talked about the program during our last two calls, we will focus on
the update compared to last quarter.
Regarding COGS initiatives, 28% of our SKUs in Peru were rationalized in 2021. This
has allowed us to reduce SKUs with negative contribution margin, reduce storage costs
and reduce working capital needs. We will continue simplifying our portfolio looking to
focus on our products that drive our profitability and improving our ROICs.
In terms of go-to-market and road-to-market, between 30 and 40 million savings have
already been executed leading to a reduction in our cost to serve, mainly in storage and
sales expenses. This will be reflected mostly in our 2022 results. Additionally, we have
recently launched a profound revision of our go to market model, to ensure that we
continue optimizing and strengthening this key competitive advantage for Alicorp.
Regarding our transformation programs, we have estimated the contribution of the
announced transformation program in our Aquafeed unit at over 30 million Soles in
savings by 2023.
As mentioned in our previous call, while the 100 million Soles in savings executed in
General and Administrative expenses, was partially reflected in 2021, most of these
savings will be reflected in 2022. However, we will only see the entire impact in 2023 as
we continue executing several efficiency programs during this year.
All these multi-sectorial efforts contribute to the different metrics we use to track our
progress, and we expect further improvements of the SG&A/Sales and SG&A/Gross
Profit indicators by year-end, in an estimated 3 to 4 percentage points relative to gross
profit versus 2021.
Let’s now discuss our consolidated results for the first quarter 2022 on slide
number 9
Consolidated revenue grew 35% while volume increased 12% year-on-year in the first
quarter of 2022, mainly driven by the solid performance of our Aquafeed, Crushing and
B2B businesses. Our Consumer Goods units also exhibited an important increase year-
over-year as a result of our price actions to partially offset the continuous increase in
international commodity prices.
Moving on to profitability, let’s now review our Consolidated EBITDA for the first
quarter 2022 on slide number 10
Consolidated EBITDA exhibits an important increase of 18% for the quarter compared
to 2021, mainly explained by the strong performance of our Aquafeed, Crushing, and
B2B platforms. This was partially offset by the decrease in our Consumer Goods units
due to cost pressure and tiering-down effects. It is important to mention that our
Consumer Goods units saw an important improvement compared to last quarter, but this
still does not reflect on our year-on-year figures. Moreover, it is also important to mention,
that despite the dramatic increases in several of our COGS, our Peruvian business (CG
Peru and B2B) performed pretty much in line with 1Q of 2021, which was a good quarter
for us.
We would also like to highlight, that we incurred in restructuring expenses, write-offs,
and other non-recurring impacts with a net impact of 13 million Soles during the first
quarter 2022. During this quarter, we had about 10 million Soles of restructuring
expenses and had around 8 million Soles of write offs as we rationalized some
unprofitable categories. These negative impacts were more than offset by the sale of
real estate in Lima. As we continue rationalizing our portfolio, we will likely continue
experiencing write offs and one-shot expenses. We are confident that despite these
negative, non-recurring and non-cash impacts in our results, these initiatives will be value
accretive in the medium term.
Let’s now review our Consolidated Net Income for the first quarter 2022 on slide
number 11
Net Income increased 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022 mainly explained by
higher operating profit and a positive base effect due to the loss of our discontinued
operations (Brazil and Argentina) during the first quarter 2021. This was partially offset
by an increase in financial expenses and income tax. Excluding Brazil and Argentina,
net Income increased 4% year-on-year.
Now, let me pass the floor over to Patricio, who will discuss the operating results
for our CGP and CGI businesses.
[PATRICIO JARAMILLO]
Thank you, Alfredo
Let’s begin with an update on CGP Market Dynamics on slide 13
For the first quarter of 2022, Peru’s GDP is expected to grow at around 4.2% year-over-
year and private consumption 4.9%. Importantly Alicorp’s revenue growth outperforms
these statistics with an 8.3% growth year over year.
We continue recovering our business, with the first quarter 2022 exceeding our fourth
quarter 2021 results in revenue by +5%, gross profit by +26%, gross margin by +4.2 p.p.
and a remarkable EBITDA recovery of+169%. This confirms that our strategy, focused
on i) accelerating the growth of our premium brands through increased advertising
spending while highlighting product differentiation versus key competitors, ii)
implementing design to value initiatives across key categories to reduce cost, and iii)
capturing pricing opportunities is working well and we are recovering profitability and
volumes faster than expected. Additionally, our channel mix continues to tilt towards the
traditional trade channel, which benefits the company’s overall profitability. During the
first quarter 2022, the traditional channel represented 77% of our sales split, 2 p.p. higher
versus the fourth quarter 2021 and 7 p.p. higher than the third quarter 2021. Also, we
are starting to see a faster than expected recovery of our core brands within our product
mix that is also benefiting profitability reaching a gross margin of 24.5% versus the 20.3%
in the fourth quarter of 2021, despite higher COGS in several key categories mentioned
earlier.
Also, we continue to recover our market share according to Kantar. During this first
bimester in 2022 we have recovered/maintained share of volume in 64% of our
categories when compared to our last reading in November/December 2021. Also in the
modern trade, value shares for the quarter are up in more than 55% of our categories
when compared to last year.
Regarding innovation, we entered a new category: salad dressings with the introduction
of “Aliños Alacena”. This effort is aimed at converting the “home made” salad dressings
market to a more flavorful, convenient, and easy to use alternative. Since its launch in
November 2021, we have achieved a 46.5% share volume in the modern trade, doubling
the market size in less than 5 months. Other innovations during the quarter include the
introduction of Don Vittorio “Alfredo” white pasta sauce and the relaunch of our “pesto”
alternative to complement our existing red sauce product line.
Let’s move on to the financial performance of our Consumer Goods Peru unit on
slide 14.
First quarter volume grew 0.7% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and
decreased 7.2% versus last year. Importantly volumes have been recovering on a
monthly basis, with March volumes growing 32% versus January reaching more than
64.000 tons up 14% versus our average fourth quarter 2021 results. This is despite the
fact that historically, first quarters have had lower volumes than fourth quarters due to
seasonality. Volumes grew in categories such as Pasta, Domestic flour and Cookies &
crackers when compared to last year.
Revenue grew 4.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and 8.3% versus last year.
Growth versus last year is predominantly driven by pricing initiatives in several categories
such as edible oil, pasta, flour, laundry soap and detergents to partially offset raw
material increases in soy, wheat and palm. As we can see, in this quarter we were also
able to increase our gross profit per ton by 25%, reaching S/. 1417 Soles, still slightly
below historic levels but recovering, due to better channel and tier mix. Despite this
increase, our gross margin decreased -8.4 p.p. versus last year reaching 24.5% mainly
due to higher costs of goods sold. Recovering volumes and gross profit per ton gives
us confidence that we continue on the right track and evidences the resiliency of our
business and strength of our core brands.
EBITDA for the first quarter decreased 20.7% versus last year however increased 169%
versus the fourth quarter 2021. Our EBITDA for the first quarter 2022 reached S/.130
million soles. Considering restructuring and one-off expenses, our adjusted EBITDA
reached s/. 139 million soles.
Let’s move on to slide 15 – Consumer Goods International Market Dynamics.
Regarding our Consumer Goods International unit, we continue to focus on home care
category expansion and strengthening our go-to-market initiates to accelerate growth in
Bolivia and Ecuador.
In Bolivia, we are delivering significant top line growth in our home care categories,
achieving a 19.5% increase in revenue year over year. Importantly regarding our key
household categories such as bleach, cleaners, and insecticides we are experiencing a
35% increase in 1Q22 vs 1Q21 behind advertising, innovation and improved visibility
and distribution.
This is part of our strategy to continue building our home care platform to reduce our
dependency on our edible oils business, which has a limited capacity to defend its
profitability during cost increases due to price controls.
Additionally, our horizontal distribution model is expanding with the opening of our
second exclusive distributor in La Paz/El Alto which started operations in April this year.
This complements the one we have already opened in Santa Cruz during 2021. We now
aim to reach directly more than 15.000 points of sale by the second quarter 2022.
In Ecuador, a positive economic momentum continues as unemployment numbers have
improved moving from 5.4% in Feb’21 to 4.3% in Feb’22. This means that around 80
thousand Ecuadorians have found jobs and are generating higher incomes. In this
geography we are also focusing in our home care categories, with new marketing
initiatives in detergents, insecticides, and surface cleaners with our brand Sapolio.
Additionally, our new go-to-market strategy aims at increasing growth through an
improved distribution model that will enable us to reach 45.000 points of sale by year
end. This evolution of our model includes the development of close to 20 territorial
distributors in key areas that will predominantly reach our mom & pop universe and will
complement our two macro distributors that already operate nationwide.
Let’s move on to the performance of Consumer Goods Bolivia on slide 16
Bolivia’s revenue increased +9.5% year-over-year in the first quarter fueled by our focus
on home care categories.
However, EBITDA fell -32.2% due to lower gross profit, because of price controls in
edible oils added to cost pressure and tiering-down.
Let’s move on to the performance of Consumer Goods Ecuador on slide 17.
Ecuador´s revenue grew +4.8% year-over-year fueled by increases in volume sold
mainly in home care categories, price taking initiatives and gross-to-net efficiencies.
EBITDA increased 12.3% as a consequence of higher volume sold, revenue and
especially SG&A efficiencies due to savings initiatives compared to 1Q21.
Now let me pass the floor over to Manuel, who will discuss the operating results
of the rest of our businesses.
[MANUEL ROMERO]
Thank you, Patricio.
Let’s move to slide 18 – B2B: Update on Market Dynamics
The restaurant industry remains close to pre-pandemic levels as restrictions are
loosened and consumers resume out-of-home activities. Our Food Service platform
outperforms Peruvian restaurant’s GDP and exceeds 2019 revenues. This has been
achieved thanks to our brand equity, our strong relationship to existing customers, and
our successful new client prospection. Regarding active clients, we reached 21
thousand, slightly below prepandemic levels.
We are very pleased to share with you that our results already surpass pre-pandemic
levels with volume and gross profit 8% and 22% higher than in 2019 respectively. These
results include the impact of SKU rationalization, excluding this effect our volume growth
would have been 9% year-on-year. In this ongoing path to recovery, customers are
looking for more value products, accelerating tiering down in most of our categories such
as edible oils, lard, and flour. This clients’ need is addressed by our multi-tier strategy,
strong brands, and service level, allowing us to maintain our client´s preference and
gross margin per ton.
Let’s move on to slide 19 - B2B financial performance
Revenue grew 45% this quarter compared to last year, due to market recovery, client’s
prospection and higher prices aimed to compensate the increase in commodity prices.
Our Food Service platform showed a 37% growth year-over-year and our bakery platform
grew 50% year over year, thanks to our pricing strategy that balances market
competitiveness and profitability.
Gross profit increased by a remarkable 45%, with an improvement of the gross profit per
ton of 12%, on the back of our pricing strategies and our decomplexity initiatives.
EBITDA increased 74% supported by our gross profit improvement and additional SG&A
efficiencies. This quarter we had restructuring and write-offs for 2.9 million Soles.
Excluding these non-recurring expenses, EBITDA would have increased 64% YoY.
Next, we will cover the Aquafeed Market Dynamics on slide 20
In Ecuador, shrimp exports grew 43% year-on-year mainly due to the recovery of
demand from China. China continues to regain ground among Ecuadorian shrimp
exports; however, there are still significant volumes exported to the US and Europe,
consolidating the trend for a more balanced and diverse Ecuadorian shrimp go-to-market
strategy compared to previous years.
To fulfill the demand from US and European clients, Ecuadorian exporters continue to
increase the offer of value added and headless shell-on products which are preferred in
these two markets. At the same time, exporters also continue to focus on shipping
greater volumes to China. As we move further into 2022, we still expect strong growth
rates from the Ecuadorian market.
International trade for shrimp continues to improve despite logistic disruptions and new
COVID-19 related lockdowns in China. A positive demand scenario has kept global
export prices relatively high compared to historic levels, even though we see a minor
setback compared to previous quarter. However, the prices paid to small farmers in
Ecuador are currently low due to growing uncertainty that exporters have about the
Chinese market. This uncertainty stems from the Chinese authorities’ Zero-COVID
policy, which has resulted in the suspension of export licenses to Ecuadorian shrimp
producers.Nevertheless, market experts see only minor short-term impacts.
Despite the recent concerns on the Chinese market outlook, we continue to see farmers
maintain the production strategies that have boosted returns during the last quarters.
Thus, they are increasing pond densities which also increases the demand for feed;
investing even more in automation and new technologies which includes Vitapro’s new
digital ecosystem; slowly tiering up towards more premium diets where Vitapro is a
market-leader; and reopening dry ponds and improving industrial facilities in order to
better cope with growing demand from the US and Europe.
Regarding the salmon feed business, exports of salmon from Chile increased 44%
quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter 2021 and are expected continue along the road
to recovery in 2022.
As with shrimp, the recovery of demand for salmon - especially from the US, but also
from other main import regions - is above pre pandemic levels and continues its upward
trend, mainly due to higher out-of-home consumption, increased retail sales and the
recovery of the food service industry.
Prices in the salmon market have bounced back to above pre-pandemic levels and are
now at 5-year highs, which has incentivized farmers to rapidly start sowing. Therefore,
we expect slightly higher export volumes in 2022 and especially in 2023.
To compete successfully in the Chilean salmon industry, Vitapro is continuing to deploy
its differential go to market strategy in order to capture new tenders in 2022.
All in all, during the first quarter 2022, we continued to see a recovery in both the shrimp
and salmon industries, and we expect this trend to continue throughout the year. Vitapro
continues displaying exponential growth, especially in Ecuador. This growth, plus our
differentiated feed products and strong brands allows us to continue generating value for
Alicorp.
Let’s move on to slide 21 – Aquafeed performance
In terms of business performance, the 62% revenue growth is mainly explained by an
increase in volume in both of our business units, the tiering up of our portfolio to value-
added feed mainly in Ecuador and by price initiatives introduced to compensate for the
increase in our raw materials prices.
Gross margin decreased 2.8% percentage points mainly due to price increases in our
raw materials and technical problems in one of our Chilean production lines, that is now
under control.
EBITDA increased a remarkable 52% YoY, mainly due to the growth in volume, while
EBITDA per ton increased 8% year-on-year explained by the dilution of SG&A expenses.
Next, we will cover the Crushing business’s financial performance on slide 22
The Crushing business had another notable quarter, mainly explained by the positive
effect of price increases in meals and oils and higher soybean production. We would like
to highlight that crushed volume in the first quarter reached 315 thousand metric tons,
growing 37% year-over-year.
Revenue increased 54% year-on-year in US dollars, explained by higher prices and a
17% growth in volume sold to third parties. As you know, reported results in our financial
statements come from the sale to third parties, however, it is important to highlight that
volume for internal consumption grew 17%, reaching 71 thousand TM.
This is a remarkable result, product of an outstanding margin management and sales
contracts with first class counterparts such as Cargill, Bunge or Seabord, and larger crop
versus last year. These initiatives allowed us to increase our market share highlighting
the strength of our relationships with local farmers and the success of our strategy to
become a one stop shop for them with best-in-class service. In addition, our agricultural
solutions line doubled its gross profit year-on-year reaching 1.5 million Dollars in the first
quarter.
EBITDA increased 12 million dollars year-on-year, backed on our ability to negotiate
prices and our commercial team´s effort in developing the business.
Let’s move to slide 24 to discuss our liquidity and credit rating
Regarding our liquidity levels, as of March 2022, we proactively prepaid about 308 million
Soles of debt for a total reduction in financial debt of 699 million Soles. Despite such
reduction we maintained a comfortable cash position which amounted to 1,039 million
Soles; 134 million more than by the end of last quarter.
Both, the prepayment of long-term liabilities and the partial repurchase of our global bond
allowed us to reduce our financial expenses as we used cash available to complete such
reductions. During the rest of 2022 we will continue looking for ways to reduce debt and
interest expense, prepaying or repurchasing debt with cash or readily available loans
with lower interest rates.
As of March, our liquidity covers 2.32 times the principal of debt maturing over 2022.
Moreover, and to further boost our liquidity, we have committed credit lines in the amount
of 167 million Soles ready to be disbursed, uncommitted credit facilities for more than 5
billion soles and have room to issue debt securities in the Peruvian market under our
local bond programs for 1.6 billion Soles.
Both international rating agencies, Fitch and Moody´s, maintain Alicorp´s investment
grade rating. However, Moody´s recently changed our outlook from “Stable” to
“Negative”. The reason behind the rating action was their expectation that our credit
metrics will remain weak for our rating category over the next 12 to 18 months as a result
of (i) our exposure to an economic slowdown in Latin American countries, (ii) a negative
consumer sentiment and (iii) the political risk in Perú. In order to tackle these concerns,
we remained active in exploring opportunities to improve our maturity profile through the
extension of our liabilities and the better use of our cash, as a way to reduce our financial
expenses and to secure our liquidity. We remain confident that with the strong recovery
throughout other businesses, this should mitigate most of these concerns.
Let’s move on to slide 25 please to comment on our debt metrics
Regarding our debt metrics, our Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved from 3.30 times as
of the fourth quarter of 2021 to 2.64 times as of the first quarter 2022. The decrease was
mainly explained by i) a positive operating cash flow and ii) an increase in our EBITDA
over the last twelve months as a result of the good performance of our Crushing,
Aquafeed and B2B units.
This ratio will probably deteriorate over the next couple of quarters because the
purchase, storage and processing of soybean and sunflower seeds; a process that
occurs over the second and third quarter and makes our debt seasonal. As you can see
in the chart on the top of the slide, that seasonality is driven by the behavior of our readily
marketable inventories (or RMI) which refers exclusively to the soybean and sunflower
seed stored in our facilities in our Bolivian operation and the advance payments to
farmers (advances that secure the purchase of RMIs). It is also important to note that
because of the upward trend in both the commodity prices and the purchased volumes
we expect an increase in the funds devoted to this business line over the following
quarters.
It is also noteworthy that since those RMIs are hedged, and the price is ascertainable
through commodity exchanges in highly liquid markets we believe that this inventory is
a cash proxy that could further enhance our liquidity position.
Let’s move on to slide 26 please for an update on working capital and our average
cost of debt
Debt maturities in 2023 are liabilities incurred several years ago at an average rate of
7.95%; therefore, we expect to refinance part of such maturities by year-end at a rate
close to that level despite the global increase in interest rates. This refinancing should
improve our maturity profile while keeping our interest expenses at similar levels.
Regarding our working capital, over the last twelve months as of March 2022 our cash
conversion cycle averaged 16 days. Despite higher inventories due to some supply chain
disruptions, high commodity prices and the volume increase in our crushing units, we
were able to improve our cash conversion cycle by one day when compared to the last
quarter as a result of efficiencies in our receivables management. Looking forward, even
though we are aiming to improve our cash generation for 2022, commodity prices and
plans to protect against logistic disruptions could cause some volatility in our working
capital ratios through 2022.
Finally, let me circle back to Alfredo, to wrap up today’s presentation with a view
of what we expect for 2022.
[ALFREDO PÉREZ]
Thanks, Manuel.
Let´s turn to slide 28 to wrap up today´s presentation with a glimpse of what we
expect for our Full year 2022 results
Despite all the factors discussed during this call that represent additional pressures on
profitability versus our last earnings call, we see that both our pricing as well as
efficiencies efforts should be successful in offsetting most of these impacts and we are
therefore, maintaining our previous guidance for 2022.
In that sense, I would like to update the main assumptions behind our guidance.
In 2022, we expect the economy of our main geographies to continue their recovery from
the 2020 recession and even though inflation rates put pressure on families´ income, we
are confident that our Consumer Goods units will keep recovering in the second half of
the year. We also see clear positive tailwinds for our Aquafeed and Crushing businesses
that are surpassing our growth and profitability expectations.
On the other hand, we see some headwinds for our consumer goods businesses. Even
though we had a very solid start of the year, the dramatic increase in commodity prices
is adding pressure on our pricing actions. We remain cautiously optimistic that we will be
able to pass through our rising costs, but it is possible that we might have some lag in
the following quarters, which may temporarily impact our gross profit per ton.
Considering the aforementioned assumptions, we expect revenue to reach double digit
growth in the full-year.
EBITDA growth should reach high single digits, which means that the contraction of
percentage margins will continue. Nevertheless, we would invite you to pay more
attention to the gross profit and EBITDA per ton metrics, since commodity price inflation
is generating a distortion of percentage margin metrics given that they are relative to
sales, as is the case in several other consumer goods companies. This makes current
margins not comparable to the ones we had before 2020.
CAPEX should reflect our prioritization efforts falling to 70 million US dollars, excluding
Aquafeed. This represents an almost 30% reduction versus 2021 levels, excluding
Aquafeed.
Including Aquafeed and the expansions planned for this unit, CAPEX should reach USD
125 million.
For leverage, our Net Debt to EBITDA ratio should fall to approximately 2.7 times by year
end 2022, on the back of solid free cash flow generation.
This concludes our presentation, and we welcome any questions you may have.
Q&A
I want to thank you once again for participating in our first quarter 2022 conference
call. In case you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to contact
us. Stay safe and have a great day.

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Alicorp Detallado_1T22.pdf

  • 1. Commented Slides Conference Call 1Q’22, May 3rd, 2022 Alicorp representatives: Alfredo Pérez, CEO Manuel Romero, CFO Patricio Jaramillo, VP Consumer Goods [ALFREDO PÉREZ] Intro: Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today for Alicorp’s First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. We will start today´s call by giving you an overview of relevant events impacting our business; starting with an update on Peru, followed by an explanation on what we are seeing in terms of inflationary pressures, and internal as well as external factors that mitigate some of those pressures. Then, we will move on to an update on our efficiency program that aims at protecting margins without impacting our market positioning. I will continue with comments on our consolidated financial results, followed by Patricio and Manuel who will cover our financial results by business unit and an update on liquidity and our balance sheet. At the end, before the Q&A, I will take the floor again for an update on our guidance for the full year 2022.
  • 2. Now, let’s move on to slide 5 for an update on Peru´s macro situation On the sanitary front, indicators are looking more and more promising, which has enabled the government to lift the outdoor mask mandate. Vaccination levels are high with 81% of eligible population -people over 5 years old- having already received at least 2 doses. This has allowed higher mobility rates, which have already surpassed pre- pandemic levels. Nevertheless, as in many Latin American countries, Peruvian families have not been able to recover their disposable income as a consequence of higher unemployment rates and lower formality. This, combined with 24-year high inflation rates leads to significant pressure for Peru´s most vulnerable families. In this situation, the government has reacted with some temporary tax reliefs, exonerating the value added tax for five basic products: bread, chicken, eggs, sugar and pasta. In addition, also the selective excise tax has been cut for the 84 and 90 octane gasoline. In line with this new regulation, Alicorp is no longer charging the value added tax for our pasta products and pre-cooked breads. We hope that these reductions will translate into lower prices for the end consumers. However, this will depend primarily on the rest of the value chain This challenging situation has also led to protests during the last months. During April, we experienced a week-long strike of transport workers and a curfew in Lima imposed by the government. Fortunately, there were no major consequences for our company´s logistics and we could secure the availability of basic goods everywhere in the country with some preventative measures.
  • 3. Let’s move on to slide 6 to discuss the impacts of the ongoing upward trend in commodity prices As you know, since mid-2020, we have experienced steep increases in commodity prices. These increases have accelerated recently, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and several climatic events, hindering the supply of several key commodities. This is already generating tight demand-supply balance, which we expect will continue over the next quarters with higher prices for commodities in the international markets. As a consumer goods company, our costs of goods sold are directly affected by this situation. As you can see in the slide, our cost structure has an important component of agricultural raw materials whose prices have increased significantly during the first quarter and have continued increasing so far into the second quarter. For example, as Russia and Ukraine are responsible for 29% of the global wheat exports, the international price of wheat increased by an additional 17% since the beginning of 2022. Moreover, the price of soybean oil, which is our most representative cost for our edible oil category has increased by 47% year-to-date. In addition, the price of crude oil climbed because of higher activity around the world and more constrained supply due to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, putting pressure not only on our logistic costs, but also in our packaging and on all the oil derivatives used as raw materials in our home and personal care platforms. In direct response to these relevant increases in our costs, we have accelerated right- sizing and design to value initiatives. Moreover, following the situation we experienced in the second half of 2021, we are cautiously passing through our higher costs via pricing actions, ensuring that our clients and all our channels have sufficient time to adjust to new prices. We are happy to announce that so far, these initiatives have proven successful, and we continue to recover volumes and market shares in key categories. Additionally, our company has first-class capabilities for the procurement and hedging of commodities, managed by a highly experienced team. Thus, our company practices active and constant hedging of our most representative agricultural commodities, such as wheat, soybean oil, soybean meal, among others. Our strategy aims at layering our exposure and providing the necessary visibility and timing for our business units to react
  • 4. to the cost evolution through pricing, other revenue management initiatives and efficiencies strategies. These skills represent for us an important competitive advantage that leaves us in a relatively favorable position when compared with our competitors, that tend to have shorter positions and less sophisticated hedging strategies. Another factor that helps us mitigate our exposure to commodity price inflation comes from the composition of our business portfolio. As 2021 showed, our Crushing business unit serves as a natural hedge for other business units with exposure to commodity prices. The profitability of the Crushing business depends on the crush margin which has a positive correlation to commodity prices. Even when the price of soybean and sunflower seed increases for us, in these scenarios, higher commodity prices lead to incremental EBITDA thanks to higher crush margins. Finally, another factor that helped us is the 4.5% appreciation of the average exchange rate of the Peruvian Sol against the US Dollar compared to the previous quarter.
  • 5. Now, let´s move on to slide number 7 for an update on our efficiency program announced two quarters ago We continue on track with the multiannual efficiencies program announced last year and expect to deliver over 200 million Soles in run rate savings by 2023. The program aims at supporting profitability, in line with our strategic prioritization, without impacting market positioning. As we have already talked about the program during our last two calls, we will focus on the update compared to last quarter. Regarding COGS initiatives, 28% of our SKUs in Peru were rationalized in 2021. This has allowed us to reduce SKUs with negative contribution margin, reduce storage costs and reduce working capital needs. We will continue simplifying our portfolio looking to focus on our products that drive our profitability and improving our ROICs. In terms of go-to-market and road-to-market, between 30 and 40 million savings have already been executed leading to a reduction in our cost to serve, mainly in storage and sales expenses. This will be reflected mostly in our 2022 results. Additionally, we have recently launched a profound revision of our go to market model, to ensure that we continue optimizing and strengthening this key competitive advantage for Alicorp. Regarding our transformation programs, we have estimated the contribution of the announced transformation program in our Aquafeed unit at over 30 million Soles in savings by 2023. As mentioned in our previous call, while the 100 million Soles in savings executed in General and Administrative expenses, was partially reflected in 2021, most of these savings will be reflected in 2022. However, we will only see the entire impact in 2023 as we continue executing several efficiency programs during this year. All these multi-sectorial efforts contribute to the different metrics we use to track our progress, and we expect further improvements of the SG&A/Sales and SG&A/Gross Profit indicators by year-end, in an estimated 3 to 4 percentage points relative to gross profit versus 2021.
  • 6. Let’s now discuss our consolidated results for the first quarter 2022 on slide number 9 Consolidated revenue grew 35% while volume increased 12% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, mainly driven by the solid performance of our Aquafeed, Crushing and B2B businesses. Our Consumer Goods units also exhibited an important increase year- over-year as a result of our price actions to partially offset the continuous increase in international commodity prices.
  • 7. Moving on to profitability, let’s now review our Consolidated EBITDA for the first quarter 2022 on slide number 10 Consolidated EBITDA exhibits an important increase of 18% for the quarter compared to 2021, mainly explained by the strong performance of our Aquafeed, Crushing, and B2B platforms. This was partially offset by the decrease in our Consumer Goods units due to cost pressure and tiering-down effects. It is important to mention that our Consumer Goods units saw an important improvement compared to last quarter, but this still does not reflect on our year-on-year figures. Moreover, it is also important to mention, that despite the dramatic increases in several of our COGS, our Peruvian business (CG Peru and B2B) performed pretty much in line with 1Q of 2021, which was a good quarter for us. We would also like to highlight, that we incurred in restructuring expenses, write-offs, and other non-recurring impacts with a net impact of 13 million Soles during the first quarter 2022. During this quarter, we had about 10 million Soles of restructuring expenses and had around 8 million Soles of write offs as we rationalized some unprofitable categories. These negative impacts were more than offset by the sale of real estate in Lima. As we continue rationalizing our portfolio, we will likely continue experiencing write offs and one-shot expenses. We are confident that despite these negative, non-recurring and non-cash impacts in our results, these initiatives will be value accretive in the medium term.
  • 8. Let’s now review our Consolidated Net Income for the first quarter 2022 on slide number 11 Net Income increased 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022 mainly explained by higher operating profit and a positive base effect due to the loss of our discontinued operations (Brazil and Argentina) during the first quarter 2021. This was partially offset by an increase in financial expenses and income tax. Excluding Brazil and Argentina, net Income increased 4% year-on-year.
  • 9. Now, let me pass the floor over to Patricio, who will discuss the operating results for our CGP and CGI businesses. [PATRICIO JARAMILLO] Thank you, Alfredo Let’s begin with an update on CGP Market Dynamics on slide 13 For the first quarter of 2022, Peru’s GDP is expected to grow at around 4.2% year-over- year and private consumption 4.9%. Importantly Alicorp’s revenue growth outperforms these statistics with an 8.3% growth year over year. We continue recovering our business, with the first quarter 2022 exceeding our fourth quarter 2021 results in revenue by +5%, gross profit by +26%, gross margin by +4.2 p.p. and a remarkable EBITDA recovery of+169%. This confirms that our strategy, focused on i) accelerating the growth of our premium brands through increased advertising spending while highlighting product differentiation versus key competitors, ii) implementing design to value initiatives across key categories to reduce cost, and iii) capturing pricing opportunities is working well and we are recovering profitability and volumes faster than expected. Additionally, our channel mix continues to tilt towards the traditional trade channel, which benefits the company’s overall profitability. During the first quarter 2022, the traditional channel represented 77% of our sales split, 2 p.p. higher versus the fourth quarter 2021 and 7 p.p. higher than the third quarter 2021. Also, we are starting to see a faster than expected recovery of our core brands within our product mix that is also benefiting profitability reaching a gross margin of 24.5% versus the 20.3% in the fourth quarter of 2021, despite higher COGS in several key categories mentioned earlier. Also, we continue to recover our market share according to Kantar. During this first bimester in 2022 we have recovered/maintained share of volume in 64% of our categories when compared to our last reading in November/December 2021. Also in the modern trade, value shares for the quarter are up in more than 55% of our categories when compared to last year.
  • 10. Regarding innovation, we entered a new category: salad dressings with the introduction of “Aliños Alacena”. This effort is aimed at converting the “home made” salad dressings market to a more flavorful, convenient, and easy to use alternative. Since its launch in November 2021, we have achieved a 46.5% share volume in the modern trade, doubling the market size in less than 5 months. Other innovations during the quarter include the introduction of Don Vittorio “Alfredo” white pasta sauce and the relaunch of our “pesto” alternative to complement our existing red sauce product line.
  • 11. Let’s move on to the financial performance of our Consumer Goods Peru unit on slide 14. First quarter volume grew 0.7% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and decreased 7.2% versus last year. Importantly volumes have been recovering on a monthly basis, with March volumes growing 32% versus January reaching more than 64.000 tons up 14% versus our average fourth quarter 2021 results. This is despite the fact that historically, first quarters have had lower volumes than fourth quarters due to seasonality. Volumes grew in categories such as Pasta, Domestic flour and Cookies & crackers when compared to last year. Revenue grew 4.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and 8.3% versus last year. Growth versus last year is predominantly driven by pricing initiatives in several categories such as edible oil, pasta, flour, laundry soap and detergents to partially offset raw material increases in soy, wheat and palm. As we can see, in this quarter we were also able to increase our gross profit per ton by 25%, reaching S/. 1417 Soles, still slightly below historic levels but recovering, due to better channel and tier mix. Despite this increase, our gross margin decreased -8.4 p.p. versus last year reaching 24.5% mainly due to higher costs of goods sold. Recovering volumes and gross profit per ton gives us confidence that we continue on the right track and evidences the resiliency of our business and strength of our core brands. EBITDA for the first quarter decreased 20.7% versus last year however increased 169% versus the fourth quarter 2021. Our EBITDA for the first quarter 2022 reached S/.130 million soles. Considering restructuring and one-off expenses, our adjusted EBITDA reached s/. 139 million soles.
  • 12. Let’s move on to slide 15 – Consumer Goods International Market Dynamics. Regarding our Consumer Goods International unit, we continue to focus on home care category expansion and strengthening our go-to-market initiates to accelerate growth in Bolivia and Ecuador. In Bolivia, we are delivering significant top line growth in our home care categories, achieving a 19.5% increase in revenue year over year. Importantly regarding our key household categories such as bleach, cleaners, and insecticides we are experiencing a 35% increase in 1Q22 vs 1Q21 behind advertising, innovation and improved visibility and distribution. This is part of our strategy to continue building our home care platform to reduce our dependency on our edible oils business, which has a limited capacity to defend its profitability during cost increases due to price controls. Additionally, our horizontal distribution model is expanding with the opening of our second exclusive distributor in La Paz/El Alto which started operations in April this year. This complements the one we have already opened in Santa Cruz during 2021. We now aim to reach directly more than 15.000 points of sale by the second quarter 2022. In Ecuador, a positive economic momentum continues as unemployment numbers have improved moving from 5.4% in Feb’21 to 4.3% in Feb’22. This means that around 80 thousand Ecuadorians have found jobs and are generating higher incomes. In this geography we are also focusing in our home care categories, with new marketing initiatives in detergents, insecticides, and surface cleaners with our brand Sapolio. Additionally, our new go-to-market strategy aims at increasing growth through an improved distribution model that will enable us to reach 45.000 points of sale by year end. This evolution of our model includes the development of close to 20 territorial distributors in key areas that will predominantly reach our mom & pop universe and will complement our two macro distributors that already operate nationwide.
  • 13. Let’s move on to the performance of Consumer Goods Bolivia on slide 16 Bolivia’s revenue increased +9.5% year-over-year in the first quarter fueled by our focus on home care categories. However, EBITDA fell -32.2% due to lower gross profit, because of price controls in edible oils added to cost pressure and tiering-down. Let’s move on to the performance of Consumer Goods Ecuador on slide 17. Ecuador´s revenue grew +4.8% year-over-year fueled by increases in volume sold mainly in home care categories, price taking initiatives and gross-to-net efficiencies. EBITDA increased 12.3% as a consequence of higher volume sold, revenue and especially SG&A efficiencies due to savings initiatives compared to 1Q21.
  • 14. Now let me pass the floor over to Manuel, who will discuss the operating results of the rest of our businesses. [MANUEL ROMERO] Thank you, Patricio. Let’s move to slide 18 – B2B: Update on Market Dynamics The restaurant industry remains close to pre-pandemic levels as restrictions are loosened and consumers resume out-of-home activities. Our Food Service platform outperforms Peruvian restaurant’s GDP and exceeds 2019 revenues. This has been achieved thanks to our brand equity, our strong relationship to existing customers, and our successful new client prospection. Regarding active clients, we reached 21 thousand, slightly below prepandemic levels. We are very pleased to share with you that our results already surpass pre-pandemic levels with volume and gross profit 8% and 22% higher than in 2019 respectively. These results include the impact of SKU rationalization, excluding this effect our volume growth would have been 9% year-on-year. In this ongoing path to recovery, customers are looking for more value products, accelerating tiering down in most of our categories such as edible oils, lard, and flour. This clients’ need is addressed by our multi-tier strategy, strong brands, and service level, allowing us to maintain our client´s preference and gross margin per ton.
  • 15. Let’s move on to slide 19 - B2B financial performance Revenue grew 45% this quarter compared to last year, due to market recovery, client’s prospection and higher prices aimed to compensate the increase in commodity prices. Our Food Service platform showed a 37% growth year-over-year and our bakery platform grew 50% year over year, thanks to our pricing strategy that balances market competitiveness and profitability. Gross profit increased by a remarkable 45%, with an improvement of the gross profit per ton of 12%, on the back of our pricing strategies and our decomplexity initiatives. EBITDA increased 74% supported by our gross profit improvement and additional SG&A efficiencies. This quarter we had restructuring and write-offs for 2.9 million Soles. Excluding these non-recurring expenses, EBITDA would have increased 64% YoY.
  • 16. Next, we will cover the Aquafeed Market Dynamics on slide 20 In Ecuador, shrimp exports grew 43% year-on-year mainly due to the recovery of demand from China. China continues to regain ground among Ecuadorian shrimp exports; however, there are still significant volumes exported to the US and Europe, consolidating the trend for a more balanced and diverse Ecuadorian shrimp go-to-market strategy compared to previous years. To fulfill the demand from US and European clients, Ecuadorian exporters continue to increase the offer of value added and headless shell-on products which are preferred in these two markets. At the same time, exporters also continue to focus on shipping greater volumes to China. As we move further into 2022, we still expect strong growth rates from the Ecuadorian market. International trade for shrimp continues to improve despite logistic disruptions and new COVID-19 related lockdowns in China. A positive demand scenario has kept global export prices relatively high compared to historic levels, even though we see a minor setback compared to previous quarter. However, the prices paid to small farmers in Ecuador are currently low due to growing uncertainty that exporters have about the Chinese market. This uncertainty stems from the Chinese authorities’ Zero-COVID policy, which has resulted in the suspension of export licenses to Ecuadorian shrimp producers.Nevertheless, market experts see only minor short-term impacts. Despite the recent concerns on the Chinese market outlook, we continue to see farmers maintain the production strategies that have boosted returns during the last quarters. Thus, they are increasing pond densities which also increases the demand for feed; investing even more in automation and new technologies which includes Vitapro’s new digital ecosystem; slowly tiering up towards more premium diets where Vitapro is a market-leader; and reopening dry ponds and improving industrial facilities in order to better cope with growing demand from the US and Europe. Regarding the salmon feed business, exports of salmon from Chile increased 44% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter 2021 and are expected continue along the road to recovery in 2022.
  • 17. As with shrimp, the recovery of demand for salmon - especially from the US, but also from other main import regions - is above pre pandemic levels and continues its upward trend, mainly due to higher out-of-home consumption, increased retail sales and the recovery of the food service industry. Prices in the salmon market have bounced back to above pre-pandemic levels and are now at 5-year highs, which has incentivized farmers to rapidly start sowing. Therefore, we expect slightly higher export volumes in 2022 and especially in 2023. To compete successfully in the Chilean salmon industry, Vitapro is continuing to deploy its differential go to market strategy in order to capture new tenders in 2022. All in all, during the first quarter 2022, we continued to see a recovery in both the shrimp and salmon industries, and we expect this trend to continue throughout the year. Vitapro continues displaying exponential growth, especially in Ecuador. This growth, plus our differentiated feed products and strong brands allows us to continue generating value for Alicorp.
  • 18. Let’s move on to slide 21 – Aquafeed performance In terms of business performance, the 62% revenue growth is mainly explained by an increase in volume in both of our business units, the tiering up of our portfolio to value- added feed mainly in Ecuador and by price initiatives introduced to compensate for the increase in our raw materials prices. Gross margin decreased 2.8% percentage points mainly due to price increases in our raw materials and technical problems in one of our Chilean production lines, that is now under control. EBITDA increased a remarkable 52% YoY, mainly due to the growth in volume, while EBITDA per ton increased 8% year-on-year explained by the dilution of SG&A expenses.
  • 19. Next, we will cover the Crushing business’s financial performance on slide 22 The Crushing business had another notable quarter, mainly explained by the positive effect of price increases in meals and oils and higher soybean production. We would like to highlight that crushed volume in the first quarter reached 315 thousand metric tons, growing 37% year-over-year. Revenue increased 54% year-on-year in US dollars, explained by higher prices and a 17% growth in volume sold to third parties. As you know, reported results in our financial statements come from the sale to third parties, however, it is important to highlight that volume for internal consumption grew 17%, reaching 71 thousand TM. This is a remarkable result, product of an outstanding margin management and sales contracts with first class counterparts such as Cargill, Bunge or Seabord, and larger crop versus last year. These initiatives allowed us to increase our market share highlighting the strength of our relationships with local farmers and the success of our strategy to become a one stop shop for them with best-in-class service. In addition, our agricultural solutions line doubled its gross profit year-on-year reaching 1.5 million Dollars in the first quarter. EBITDA increased 12 million dollars year-on-year, backed on our ability to negotiate prices and our commercial team´s effort in developing the business.
  • 20. Let’s move to slide 24 to discuss our liquidity and credit rating Regarding our liquidity levels, as of March 2022, we proactively prepaid about 308 million Soles of debt for a total reduction in financial debt of 699 million Soles. Despite such reduction we maintained a comfortable cash position which amounted to 1,039 million Soles; 134 million more than by the end of last quarter. Both, the prepayment of long-term liabilities and the partial repurchase of our global bond allowed us to reduce our financial expenses as we used cash available to complete such reductions. During the rest of 2022 we will continue looking for ways to reduce debt and interest expense, prepaying or repurchasing debt with cash or readily available loans with lower interest rates. As of March, our liquidity covers 2.32 times the principal of debt maturing over 2022. Moreover, and to further boost our liquidity, we have committed credit lines in the amount of 167 million Soles ready to be disbursed, uncommitted credit facilities for more than 5 billion soles and have room to issue debt securities in the Peruvian market under our local bond programs for 1.6 billion Soles. Both international rating agencies, Fitch and Moody´s, maintain Alicorp´s investment grade rating. However, Moody´s recently changed our outlook from “Stable” to “Negative”. The reason behind the rating action was their expectation that our credit metrics will remain weak for our rating category over the next 12 to 18 months as a result of (i) our exposure to an economic slowdown in Latin American countries, (ii) a negative consumer sentiment and (iii) the political risk in Perú. In order to tackle these concerns, we remained active in exploring opportunities to improve our maturity profile through the extension of our liabilities and the better use of our cash, as a way to reduce our financial expenses and to secure our liquidity. We remain confident that with the strong recovery throughout other businesses, this should mitigate most of these concerns.
  • 21. Let’s move on to slide 25 please to comment on our debt metrics Regarding our debt metrics, our Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved from 3.30 times as of the fourth quarter of 2021 to 2.64 times as of the first quarter 2022. The decrease was mainly explained by i) a positive operating cash flow and ii) an increase in our EBITDA over the last twelve months as a result of the good performance of our Crushing, Aquafeed and B2B units. This ratio will probably deteriorate over the next couple of quarters because the purchase, storage and processing of soybean and sunflower seeds; a process that occurs over the second and third quarter and makes our debt seasonal. As you can see in the chart on the top of the slide, that seasonality is driven by the behavior of our readily marketable inventories (or RMI) which refers exclusively to the soybean and sunflower seed stored in our facilities in our Bolivian operation and the advance payments to farmers (advances that secure the purchase of RMIs). It is also important to note that because of the upward trend in both the commodity prices and the purchased volumes we expect an increase in the funds devoted to this business line over the following quarters. It is also noteworthy that since those RMIs are hedged, and the price is ascertainable through commodity exchanges in highly liquid markets we believe that this inventory is a cash proxy that could further enhance our liquidity position.
  • 22. Let’s move on to slide 26 please for an update on working capital and our average cost of debt Debt maturities in 2023 are liabilities incurred several years ago at an average rate of 7.95%; therefore, we expect to refinance part of such maturities by year-end at a rate close to that level despite the global increase in interest rates. This refinancing should improve our maturity profile while keeping our interest expenses at similar levels. Regarding our working capital, over the last twelve months as of March 2022 our cash conversion cycle averaged 16 days. Despite higher inventories due to some supply chain disruptions, high commodity prices and the volume increase in our crushing units, we were able to improve our cash conversion cycle by one day when compared to the last quarter as a result of efficiencies in our receivables management. Looking forward, even though we are aiming to improve our cash generation for 2022, commodity prices and plans to protect against logistic disruptions could cause some volatility in our working capital ratios through 2022.
  • 23. Finally, let me circle back to Alfredo, to wrap up today’s presentation with a view of what we expect for 2022. [ALFREDO PÉREZ] Thanks, Manuel. Let´s turn to slide 28 to wrap up today´s presentation with a glimpse of what we expect for our Full year 2022 results Despite all the factors discussed during this call that represent additional pressures on profitability versus our last earnings call, we see that both our pricing as well as efficiencies efforts should be successful in offsetting most of these impacts and we are therefore, maintaining our previous guidance for 2022. In that sense, I would like to update the main assumptions behind our guidance. In 2022, we expect the economy of our main geographies to continue their recovery from the 2020 recession and even though inflation rates put pressure on families´ income, we are confident that our Consumer Goods units will keep recovering in the second half of the year. We also see clear positive tailwinds for our Aquafeed and Crushing businesses that are surpassing our growth and profitability expectations. On the other hand, we see some headwinds for our consumer goods businesses. Even though we had a very solid start of the year, the dramatic increase in commodity prices is adding pressure on our pricing actions. We remain cautiously optimistic that we will be able to pass through our rising costs, but it is possible that we might have some lag in the following quarters, which may temporarily impact our gross profit per ton. Considering the aforementioned assumptions, we expect revenue to reach double digit growth in the full-year. EBITDA growth should reach high single digits, which means that the contraction of percentage margins will continue. Nevertheless, we would invite you to pay more attention to the gross profit and EBITDA per ton metrics, since commodity price inflation
  • 24. is generating a distortion of percentage margin metrics given that they are relative to sales, as is the case in several other consumer goods companies. This makes current margins not comparable to the ones we had before 2020. CAPEX should reflect our prioritization efforts falling to 70 million US dollars, excluding Aquafeed. This represents an almost 30% reduction versus 2021 levels, excluding Aquafeed. Including Aquafeed and the expansions planned for this unit, CAPEX should reach USD 125 million. For leverage, our Net Debt to EBITDA ratio should fall to approximately 2.7 times by year end 2022, on the back of solid free cash flow generation. This concludes our presentation, and we welcome any questions you may have. Q&A I want to thank you once again for participating in our first quarter 2022 conference call. In case you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Stay safe and have a great day.