7 ноября в Государственном центральном музее современной истории России научный руководитель отделения прикладной математики и информатики ВШЭ Фуад Алескеров рассказал о том, определяет ли число мест в парламенте степень влияния партии.
Александр Острогорский. Дизайн и современное искусство, как два вектора измен...hse_lectorium
3 октября в Мультимедиа Арт музее преподаватель факультета дизайна НИУ ВШЭ прочитал лекцию на тему, как дизайн и современное искусство влияют на нашу реальность.
Никита Покровский. Вперед к природе, или жизнь после города.hse_lectorium
19 декабря цикл публичных лекций ВШЭ в музеях столицы продолжило выступление заведующего кафедрой общей социологии ВШЭ во Всероссийском музее декоративно-прикладного и народного искусства. Он прочел лекцию о том, что настал момент, когда урбанизация, сами города угрожают будущему человечества.
Алексей Маслов. «Вечное противостояние: Европа и национализм в Китае».hse_lectorium
Первым музеем, принявшим у себя Вышку, стал музей Востока. 26 сентября заведующий отделением востоковедения ВШЭ открыл «музейные четверги», прочитав лекцию о трех факторах, влияющих на мощь Китая и сравнил его с Европой.
Александр Поддьяков. Эволюция создания трудностей.hse_lectorium
28 ноября в рамках проекта «Университет, открытый городу», профессор кафедры общей и экспериментальной психологии ВШЭ выступил в Дарвиновском музее с лекцией, посвященной теме, как в природе и обществе создаются трудности.
Александр Острогорский. Дизайн и современное искусство, как два вектора измен...hse_lectorium
3 октября в Мультимедиа Арт музее преподаватель факультета дизайна НИУ ВШЭ прочитал лекцию на тему, как дизайн и современное искусство влияют на нашу реальность.
Никита Покровский. Вперед к природе, или жизнь после города.hse_lectorium
19 декабря цикл публичных лекций ВШЭ в музеях столицы продолжило выступление заведующего кафедрой общей социологии ВШЭ во Всероссийском музее декоративно-прикладного и народного искусства. Он прочел лекцию о том, что настал момент, когда урбанизация, сами города угрожают будущему человечества.
Алексей Маслов. «Вечное противостояние: Европа и национализм в Китае».hse_lectorium
Первым музеем, принявшим у себя Вышку, стал музей Востока. 26 сентября заведующий отделением востоковедения ВШЭ открыл «музейные четверги», прочитав лекцию о трех факторах, влияющих на мощь Китая и сравнил его с Европой.
Александр Поддьяков. Эволюция создания трудностей.hse_lectorium
28 ноября в рамках проекта «Университет, открытый городу», профессор кафедры общей и экспериментальной психологии ВШЭ выступил в Дарвиновском музее с лекцией, посвященной теме, как в природе и обществе создаются трудности.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
2. Что такое влияние фракции или
группы в выборном органе,
или
как эффективно осуществлять
лоббирование?
3. Ситуация 1
Распределение мест
в выборном органе
Группы
A
B
C
Места
33
33
33
Выигрывающие коалиции
Коалиции
A+B
A+C
B+C
A+B+C
Места
66 > 50
66 > 50
66 > 50
99 > 50
Правило принятия решения - простое большинство, т.е. 50 голосов
Выигрывающие коалиции - A+B, A+C, B+C, A+B+C,
т.е. каждая партия входит в одинаковое число выигрывающих
коалиций. Поэтому,
Влияние (А) = Влияние (В) = Влияние (С) =
Доля голосов (А) = Доля голосов (В) = Доля голосов (C)
4. Ситуация 2
Распределение мест
в выборном органе
Партии
Места
A
45
B
45
C
9
Выигрывающие коалиции
Коалиции
A+B
A+C
B+C
A+B+C
Места
90 > 50
54 > 50
54 > 50
99 > 50
Правило принятия решения - простое большинство, т.е. 50 голосов
Выигрывающие коалиции те же: A+B, A+C, B+C, A+B+C,
и каждая партия входит в одинаковое число выигрывающих
коалиций. Поэтому,
Влияние (А) = Влияние (В) = Влияние (С) =
Доля голосов (А) = Доля голосов (В)
НЕ РАВНО Доле голосов (C)
5. В качестве индекса влияния
используется индекс Банцафа,
определяющий долю коалиций, в
которых группы являются ключевыми,
то есть, обеспечивают прохождение
решения
6. Индекс влияния Банцафа
n партий
Партия в выигрывающей коалиции называется
ключевой, если при её выходе коалиция перестаёт быть
выигрывающей.
(i
Индекс Банцафа β ) для партии i
bi
βi) =
(
b
∑j
j
где bi - это число коалиций, в которых партия i является
ключевой
7. Расчетный пример
Парламент на 100 мест, 3 партии A, B, С c голосами 50,
49 и 1, соответственно.
Правило принятия решений - правило простого
большинства.
Выигрывающими являются следующие коалиции:
A+В, A+С, A+B+С.
Тогда индекс Банцафа для партии А, которая является
ключевой во всех трех коалициях, вычисляется
следующим образом:
β( A) = 3 =3
3 +1+1 5
Аналогично, для партий В и С, каждая из которых
является ключевой лишь в одной коалиции (A+B и
A+С, соответственно), получаем:
β(B) =β(C ) = 1 =1
3 +1+1 5
Таким образом, влияние партии В меньше влияния
партии А в 3 раза, несмотря на то, что разница голосов
этих партий составляет 2%, а партия С, обладая всего
одним голосом, имеет такое же влияние, как партия В с
49 голосами.
Этот пример еще раз доказывает, что влияние партий
не пропорционально числу их голосов.
8. Распределение влияния групп в
Ситуациях 1 и 2
Ситуация 1
Группы
A
B
C
Места
33
33
33
Ситуация 2
Влияние
0.33
0.33
0.33
Группы
A
B
C
Места
45
45
9
Влияние
0.33
0.33
0.33
9. Расчет влияния в
Государственной Думе
Государственная Дума РФ состоит из 450 депутатов и
формируется наполовину по одномандатным округам и
наполовину – по партийным спискам.
Право
на
образование
фракции
получают
избирательные
объединения,
прошедшие
по
общефедеральному избирательному округу.
Предусмотрена возможность создания депутатских
групп, в состав которых (на данный момент) должно
входить не менее 35 депутатов.
Правила принятия решений – простое большинство
(т.е. 226 голосов) для федеральных законов и 2/3
голосов (т.е. 300 голосов) для конституционных.
12. Не все коалиции возможны!
Ситуация 3
Группы
A
B
C
Места
50
49
1
Правило принятия решения простое большинство, т.е. 51 голос
По каким-либо причинам партии А и В в коалицию не вступают.
Группы
A
B
C
Места
50
49
1
Влияние
0.66
0
0.33
Коалиции
A+B
A+C
B+C
A+B+C
Места
коалиция невозможна
51
50 < 51
коалиция невозможна
13. Индекс согласованности
c( q1 , q2 ) = 1 −
q1 − q2
max( q1 ,1 − q1 , q2 ,1 − q2 )
C равно 1, если позиции групп совпадают (q1 = q2), и
равно 0, если позиции противоположны (q1=0 и q2 =1)
14. Согласованность пар фракций в III Думе
1,000
0,900
0,700
0,600
0,500
0,400
0,300
0,200
0,100
Communists_Edinstvo
ju
l.0
1
oc
t.0
1
de
c.
01
fe
b.
02
ap
r.0
2
ju
n.
02
oc
t.0
2
de
c.
02
fe
b.
03
ap
r.0
3
ju
n.
03
oc
t.0
3
ap
r.0
0
ju
n.
00
se
p.
00
no
v.
00
ja
n.
-f e
b.
01
m
ay
.0
1
0,000
ja
n.
-f e
b.
00
the consistency index
0,800
Edinstvo_OVR
SPS_Yabloko
Communists_Agrariants
15. b.
m 00
ar
.
ap 00
r.0
m 0
ay
.0
ju 0
n.
0
ju 0
l.0
se 0
p.
oc 00
t
no .00
v.
0
ja dec 0
n. .0
m -f e 0
ar b.
.-a 01
pr
m .01
ay
.0
ju 1
n.
0
ju 1
l.0
se 1
p.
oc 01
t.
no 01
v.
de 01
c.
ja 01
n.
fe 02
b.
m 02
ar
.
ap 02
r.0
m 2
ay
.
ju 02
n.
s e 02
p.
oc 02
t.
no 02
v.
de 02
c.
0
ja 2
n.
fe 03
b.
m 03
ar
.
ap 03
r
m .03
ay
.0
ju 3
n.
se 03
p.
oc 03
t.
no 03
v.
03
ja
n.
-f e
Banzhaf index
Распределение влияния крупных фракций в III Думе, сценарий 0.4
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
Communists
Edinstvo
Narodnyi Deputat
Communists_share
Edinstvo_share
Narodnyi Deputat_share
16. Приложения
• Распределение влияния в Царской Думе
• Распределение вляния в рейхстаге
Веймарской республики (1919-1933)
• МВФ
• Российские банки
17. Рейхстаг Веймарской республики 1919-1933
(совместно с М.Холлерлм и Р.Камаловой)
•
•
•
•
Ноябрь 1918 – революция;
Избрание Национальной Ассамблеи 19 января 1919 (Социал
Демократическая партия получила 165 мест; всего мест - 423);
Веймарская коалиция - СДП, Католическая партия центра и леволиберальная Германская демократическая партия;
Новая конституция была принята 11 августа 1919
17
18. Много экономических и социальных
проблем
•
•
•
•
•
Рост зарплат;
Несбалансированный бюджет;
Отсутствие инвестиций;
Очень высокая безработица;
Гиперинфляция
18
21. Избирательный закон
от 27 апреля 1920
•
•
•
•
•
Всеобщее избирательное право;
Мин возраст 20 лет;
Партийные списки;
35 избирательных округов;
60 000 голосов для избрания 1 депутата из партийного
списка;
• Если остается более 30 000 голосов – еще 1 депутат;
• Общее число депутатов – от 423 до 647.
21
22. Сравнение влияния: СПД, КПД и НСДАП
Communist Party of
Germany (KPD)
Social Democratic
Party of Germany
(SPD)
National Socialist
German Workers'
Party (NSDAP)
s
β
α
s
β
α
s
β
α
19.01.1919
–
–
–
0.390
0.462
0.512
–
–
–
06.06.1920
0.01
0.008
0
0.22
0.248
0.277
–
–
–
04.05.1924
0.13
0.121
0
0.21
0.232
0.210
0.07
0.065
0.029
07.12.1924
0.09
0.079
0
0.27
0.294
0.288
0.03
0.024
0.009
20.05.1928
0.11
0.102
0
0.31
0.39
0.373
0.02
0.017
0.008
14.09.1930
0.13
0.13
0
0.25
0.275
0,316
0.19
0.183
0,106
31.07.1932
0.15
0.15
0
0.22
0.15
0.206
0.38
0.501
0.347
06.11.1932
0.17
0.191
0
0.21
0.191
0.259
0.34
0.405
0.275
05.03.1933
0.125
0.091
0
0.185
0.091
0.082
0.445
0.636
0.625
22
23. КПГ против СДП
• Николай Бухарин (Коммунистический Интернационал):
‘Для нас нет принципиальной разницы между
правительством Густава Носке и фашистским’. июль 1928,
6-й Конгресс Коминтерна
23