This newsletter provides summaries of economic issues in three main articles. The first discusses the slowdown of the Chinese economy due to the creation of a stock market bubble through loose lending. The second explains that UK interest rates will likely remain low as inflation remains below the 2% target. The third outlines the Volkswagen emissions scandal where the company manipulated software in 11 million vehicles to pass environmental tests, resulting in major fines and loss of trust in the brand.
What we would like to consider is the price of taming inflation and how that will affect peoples, work, investments, and lives in the coming years.
https://youtu.be/0RuIunNvvKI
In the Inflation Watch series, NAR Research focuses on the price level. We monitor measures of inflation that affect the business of REALTORS® and summarize their impact, highlighting areas of potential concern in a brief, polished presentation.
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide.
Ryan Renicker, CFA
What we would like to consider is the price of taming inflation and how that will affect peoples, work, investments, and lives in the coming years.
https://youtu.be/0RuIunNvvKI
In the Inflation Watch series, NAR Research focuses on the price level. We monitor measures of inflation that affect the business of REALTORS® and summarize their impact, highlighting areas of potential concern in a brief, polished presentation.
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide.
Ryan Renicker, CFA
Capital Markets Industry Insights - Q1 2016Duff & Phelps
Prospective middle-market issuers are being greeted with robust demand from both traditional private credit investors and crossover public market participants. While monetary policy concerns weighed heavily on market participants for much of the first quarter, the Fed’s more dovish posture of recent weeks has triggered an increase in risk appetite across the credit markets.
Weekly Currency Round up – 16th February 2018moneycorpbank1
The pound was off to a poor start at the beginning of this week, particularly given the Bank of England’s guidance last week that the UK interest rates would rise sooner and further than previously suggested.
“The US markets may have closed in the green but if a mature market shows 15 percent intra-day volatility then you know that the underlying sentiment is very weak and the bounce is only due to short covering,” Thunuguntla said explaining why Indian markets opened strong but immediately went into a tailspin.
Dr. Bruce Yandle of Clemson University presents his Quarterly Economic Update paying special attention to the unemployment rate, GDP, and interest rates.
A PRIMACONTA apresenta a seguir algumas informações sobre a nova realidade do mercado e expõe sua filosofia de gestão digital para que você entenda como posicionar sua marca na internet de forma positiva para o seu público-alvo.
Moet het aanmaken van een Gedeeld Farmaceutisch Dossier verplicht zijn in Bel...Medical Web Services
Moet het aanmaken van een Gedeeld Farmaceutisch Dossier verplicht zijn in België?
Een exclusieve peiling bij de Belgische apothekers.
Nationale resultaten – Enquête gehouden van 1 tot 7 december 2015.
Capital Markets Industry Insights - Q1 2016Duff & Phelps
Prospective middle-market issuers are being greeted with robust demand from both traditional private credit investors and crossover public market participants. While monetary policy concerns weighed heavily on market participants for much of the first quarter, the Fed’s more dovish posture of recent weeks has triggered an increase in risk appetite across the credit markets.
Weekly Currency Round up – 16th February 2018moneycorpbank1
The pound was off to a poor start at the beginning of this week, particularly given the Bank of England’s guidance last week that the UK interest rates would rise sooner and further than previously suggested.
“The US markets may have closed in the green but if a mature market shows 15 percent intra-day volatility then you know that the underlying sentiment is very weak and the bounce is only due to short covering,” Thunuguntla said explaining why Indian markets opened strong but immediately went into a tailspin.
Dr. Bruce Yandle of Clemson University presents his Quarterly Economic Update paying special attention to the unemployment rate, GDP, and interest rates.
A PRIMACONTA apresenta a seguir algumas informações sobre a nova realidade do mercado e expõe sua filosofia de gestão digital para que você entenda como posicionar sua marca na internet de forma positiva para o seu público-alvo.
Moet het aanmaken van een Gedeeld Farmaceutisch Dossier verplicht zijn in Bel...Medical Web Services
Moet het aanmaken van een Gedeeld Farmaceutisch Dossier verplicht zijn in België?
Een exclusieve peiling bij de Belgische apothekers.
Nationale resultaten – Enquête gehouden van 1 tot 7 december 2015.
Ovaj model arhivskog pokretnog regala namijenjen je pohrani arhivske građe na raznim vrstama zapisa (papir, mikro film, nosač zvuka, audio i video kasete). Regal je modularne konstrukcije što omogućava prilagođavanje svakom obliku arhivske građe. Primjenom pokretnih regala kapacitet arhive uvećava se za otprilike 70% te se postižu značajne financijske uštede zbog manje kvadrature arhivskog prostora.
NEW TESTAMENT SURVEY. Session 4: MATTHEW - His GospelClive Ashby
As part of the Course on the New Testament, Session 4 provides an overview of the writing of Matthew - His Gospel on the life of Christ. (This is part of the New Testament Survey Course taught at Harare Theological College - 2016)
The global high yield bond markets have witnessed sentiment to risk-off mode. This has since been partially significant growth and diversification over the last few years aided by the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation provided by central banks across the world. The unprecedented liquidity made available at record low yields has thus led to a significant pick up in both primary market and secondary market activity in the asset class. Banking disintermediation in Europe and regulatory changes in the financial sector further contributed to the deepening and diversification of the high yield bond markets even as emerging market issuances entered the fray.
In this backdrop, Aranca’s special report – High Yield Bonds - The Rise of the Fallen – examines how liquidity concerns have increased with changing regulatory environment, rising capital requirements and declining risk appetite leading to decreasing bond inventories at both banks and other dealers even as corporate bond issuances are at an all-time high.
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis 27 aug 2010Gaurav Sharma
Global Financial Order - Reasons for Crisis, Current Status, The BIG Shifts- Public Debt, Global De-leverage, Wealth Concetration & Creation.
Talk Delivered at Fore School Of Management, new Delhi
The Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der StokFelix Meißner
The Financial Situation in the World” by Wouter van der Stok
Mr. Van der Stok will present a brief history of the present global Economic/Financial Crisis, an analysis of future developments of this Crisis over the next 3 to10 years and how this will affect, without any exception, "me" as a person, family, business, city, nation and groups of nations
HERE YOU FIND THE RECORDING:
http://tinyurl.com/5vcl5hd
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Watch the following video and respond to the questions belowhtt.docxmelbruce90096
Watch the following video and respond to the questions below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImQrUjlyHUg
(1) What is your opinion of Mark Pagel's explanation of language and humanity? (i.e., do you think his explanation of the evolution of language adequately addresses how humans have been impacted by the ability to communicate).
(2) How do you think "social learning" has influenced humanity? (think of the good and bad).
(3) Are there any additional thoughts that came to mind as you were watching this video?
Don’t Look Back in Anger at Bailouts and Stimulus
By Alan S. Blinder And Mark Zandi
The Wall Street Journal
Oct. 15, 2015 6:32 p.m. ET
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in an Oct. 6 interview on the Fox Business Network. PHOTO:
RICHARD DREW/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Without the emergency measures of 2008-09, the U.S.
economy would be far worse off today.
The publicity surrounding former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s memoir prompts a
look-back at the stunning array of policy responses promulgated by the Fed, Congress and two
administrations to avert catastrophe during the financial crisis in 2008-09. This is important
because many of these initiatives haven’t aged well in the eyes of politicians and the public.
TARP, fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing and auto bailout remain dirty words to many people
who increasingly blame them for prolonging the Great Recession and the slow pace of recovery.
But in a study released Thursday for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, we found the
reverse to be true: These extraordinary policies ended the crisis and jump-started an economic
recovery that is stronger in the U.S. than in most countries.
Specifically, we estimate that:
• The peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product, which was barely more than 4%,
would have been close to a stunning 14%.
• The contraction would have lasted three years, more than twice as long as it did.
Don’t Look Back in Anger at Bailouts and Stimulus
By Alan S. Blinder And Mark Zandi
The Wall Street Journal
Oct. 15, 2015 6:32 p.m. ET
• More than 17 million jobs would have been lost, about twice the actual number.
• Unemployment would have peaked at just under 16%, rather than at 10%.
• The federal budget deficit would have ballooned to $2.8 trillion, equal to 18% of GDP,
compared with its actual peak of 10%.
• Today’s economy would be far weaker than it is—with real GDP about $800 billion lower, 3.6
million fewer jobs, and unemployment still at 7.6%.
The overwhelming nature of the fiscal and monetary policy responses is the main reason we
didn’t suffer a much-worse fate. Yet history is in danger of giving the powerful 2008-09
responses a misguided Bronx cheer.
Start with TARP. The Troubled Asset Relief Program was deeply unpopular in part because it
was so large—a $700 billion bailout fund—and aimed primarily at “Wall Street.” It felt wrong to
bail out guilty parties, and many.
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
1. December 2015 Welcome Issue
AES NEWSLETTER
Bringing you up-to-date news on
relevant economic issues occurring in
the UK and around the world.
Issue 1 (December 2015)
What to Expect?
Welcome to Aston Economics Society’s first ever
newsletter. This is an opportunity for the society to
keep in contact with all its members and ensure that
you are up to date with key events.
This will become a monthly newsletter, whereby we
will be sharing stories that we feel would interest
students with an economics and business background.
Writer: Dinesh Patel. Editor: Victoria Poku.
Content
Pg.2
Pg. 3
Pg. 4
The Chinese Economy
Interest Rates in the UK
VW Scandal
2. The Chinese Economy
The Issue
A lot of the economic news lately has been
around Asian markets. It’s all about the
slowdown of the world’s second largest
economy.
And it began when China’s Frankenstein like
hybrid economy turned on its creator.
A couple of years ago the Chinese
government opened its stock market to the
public, in an attempt to stimulate growth.
Working class people now had the ability to
trade on the world stock market. The
number of stock accounts created increased by
around 45 million. The size of the Chinese
stock market doubled over a period of year.
But, this wasn’t the only issue.
Many of the new stocks were being purchased
with borrowed money. More than 65% of the
investors held less than a high school
education and therefore, there were not
enough qualified investors in the market to
correctly judge its strengths and weaknesses.
This created two problems
1) A bubble was created in the financial
market. The valuation of Chinese
companies became heavily inflated.
2) Competing to attract investors, banks
began to promise unrealistic profits.
The perceptions of stocks shift to being seen as
bets as opposed to highly complex shares of
ownership. The startling issue here is that the
problem was compounded by the Government
of China selling off their scrap assets in the
free for all casino like stock market.
Why is this important?
It became a case of damage limitation for the Chinese
government. They pumped capital into the market and
prevented many investors with over 5% ownership from
selling their shares.
This revelation has been met with great surprise across
the world. It is an unexpected travesty from China, a
nation which was lauded for its extraordinary success in
economic development, as it shifts away from the holy
grail blueprint of growth coined by Soviet Russia.
Only time will tell the true effect of the Chinese market
collapse both in China and the rest of the world. But, one
thing we know for sure is that retaining the confidence of
the population of China is going to be a tough ask for
their current Government.
3. Interest Rates in the UK
Interest rates remain at a record low.
The monetary policy comity commonly
referred to as the MPC, recently voted
8-1 in favour of keeping interest rates at
a record low of 0.5%.
The years of low interest rates have cut
the savings on bank deposits, whilst
mortgage owners reaped the benefits of
low repayment and it looks set to
continue. For the time being at least…
Why?
Bank of England stated that cost
pressures in the UK labour market are
rising too slowly for inflation to return
back to the 2% target rate. This target
rate of 2% is important and is derived
from numerous economic theories,
such as the Phillips Curve. Thus, a 2%
rate of inflation is seen as an optimal
rate. The rationale behind this is often
debated, but economists often coin
price stability and certainty to make
long term economic & financial
decisions as some of the key reasons.
Inflation can be harmful; but deflation
can be disastrous, hence why the target
inflation rate is set at 2% and not 0%. A
rate of 2% will enable prices and wages
to adjust without causing uncertainty of
high inflation rates. Higher inflation
would mean that people would be
reluctant to invest because of
uncertainty over future prices.
Basically, the interest rate is like one of
the tools in a toolkit that the Bank of
England tries to use to control
inflation.
BUT…
Opinion is split. Some suggest that the ability to decrease
interest rates in times of instability is a vital feature of any
economy. However, interest rates are at extraordinary lows of
0.5%. It appears that the ability to stimulate the economy in the
not so distant future will have to be achieved with a separate
toolkit if it is required.
It seems home owners are keen to lock the opportunity
presented by the low interest rates, as in the last twelve months
over 95% mortgages have been taken out at fixed rates.
Whatever the case, it appears that we can expect interest rates to
begin a steady rise to around 2.5% over the next few years.
4. could have massive implications beyond that
of just VW or the Diesel car market. The effect
will mainly impact Germany, a nation that
prides itself on its reputation for exceptional
manufacturing. A likely slowdown in future
sales might be a signal for danger for a share of
those employed within the automotive
industry in Germany where over 2% of the
entire population is employed.
Another of those affected will be GKN, a
huge British supplier for Volkswagen.
Question marks remain over whether some
suppliers will wish to continue to have their
brand associated with Volkswagen, but for
some the lure of large scale orders may be too
great to refuse.
One thing that is for certain is that it might
take considerable research and changes to the
regulation of carmakers to restore consumer
confidence in the once famously proclaimed
hypothesis that diesel cars are much better for
the environment.
Mauris laoreet elit sed dolor.
Volkswagen Scandal
The issue
Coined as the “Diesel dupe” VW have been
accused of manipulating the software
embedded within millions of their cars. This
manipulation of software means that the car is
able to recognise when it is being tested and
therefore, improve the environmental report
that it provides.
VW have recently confirmed that these
accusations are true and admitted to having
over 11 million cars fitted with these devices.
The response?
Volkswagen boss Michael Horn recently
confessed that the VW had “screwed up” in an
honest assessment of the company’s recent
performance. Furthermore, the former chief
executive, Martin Winterkorn, has been
replaced with former boss of Porsche,
Matthias Mueller. It appears that top down
structural and personnel changes are at the
forefront of VW’s strategy to regain consumer
confidence. They have also recalled over half a
million cars with many more set to follow
after the turn of the year.
Discounting the incomprehensible effect of a
tarnished brand image, the financial
implications on VW could be set to get even
worse. The EPA (Environmental Protection
Agency) has the ability to fine VW $37,500 for
every single car that breaches the current
regulations. That potential fine is capped at
$18 billion, but it presents the question of
whether it was really worth the risk for
Volkswagen in the first place?
The effect on everyone else?
Carmaker shares are down around 30%, a
result that is likely to have been fuelled by the
VW scandal. Evidently, it is certainly a huge
blow to the diesel car market.
Many economists suggest that the VW scandal