21st Services conducted a study of its actual mortality rates compared to expected mortality rates from January 2001 through March 2010. The study found an actual-to-expected ratio of 94.7%, indicating that 21st Services' life expectancy estimates have proven to be highly accurate. Additional analysis by duration and percentile of mortality curve also showed actual rates closely matching expected rates, further validating 21st Services' underwriting and longevity analysis methodology.
The National Health Council held a Briefing on Essential Health Benefits (EHB) on August 3, 2011. This is a presentation about an actuarial analysis of a possible EHB plan and its out-of-pocket costs from the perspective of a patient with a chronic disease.
The National Health Council conducted research, did an analysis, and prepared proposed regulatory language to assist the Secretary of Health and Human Services with the preparation of an essential health benefits (EHB) package that will serve the needs of people with chronic diseases and disabilities. This slide show is from a NHC briefing on EHB, given August 3, 2011.
The Four Actuarial Risks (IAFP Symposium 2015: Insurance Issues)Promod Sharma
This is the slide deck used at The Trusted Advisor Symposium 2015 of the Institute of Advanced Financial Planners (IAFP at http://www.iafp.ca). A studio recording of the presentation is embedded.
For the first time, actuary Promod Sharma (https://ca.linkedin.com/in/promod) publicly shares his approach to measuring and managing financial risks which can be transferred with insurance or pensions.
The case study mentioned was provided to symposium attendees. You can follow the presentation without seeing the case study.
Question an Actuary at http://www.taxevity.com/qana
The National Health Council held a Briefing on Essential Health Benefits (EHB) on August 3, 2011. This is a presentation about an actuarial analysis of a possible EHB plan and its out-of-pocket costs from the perspective of a patient with a chronic disease.
The National Health Council conducted research, did an analysis, and prepared proposed regulatory language to assist the Secretary of Health and Human Services with the preparation of an essential health benefits (EHB) package that will serve the needs of people with chronic diseases and disabilities. This slide show is from a NHC briefing on EHB, given August 3, 2011.
The Four Actuarial Risks (IAFP Symposium 2015: Insurance Issues)Promod Sharma
This is the slide deck used at The Trusted Advisor Symposium 2015 of the Institute of Advanced Financial Planners (IAFP at http://www.iafp.ca). A studio recording of the presentation is embedded.
For the first time, actuary Promod Sharma (https://ca.linkedin.com/in/promod) publicly shares his approach to measuring and managing financial risks which can be transferred with insurance or pensions.
The case study mentioned was provided to symposium attendees. You can follow the presentation without seeing the case study.
Question an Actuary at http://www.taxevity.com/qana
An Empirical Study on the Change of Consumption Level of Chinese ResidentsDr. Amarjeet Singh
With the rapid development of Chinese economy since the reform and opening up, people's living standards have been improved, and people's consumption level has been gradually improved. Consumption plays an important role in stimulating economic growth. At present, China needs to adjust its economic structure and optimize its industrial structure. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the factors that affect the consumption level of Chinese residents and study the main factors for promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Chinese economy. Therefore, based on the statistical data from 1995 to 2018, this paper collects the variable data that affects the consumption level of residents, such as the freight volume of infrastructure railway and highway, the per capita disposable income of national residents, ordinary college students, the consumer price index of residents, the average real wage index and the gross domestic product. And through the establishment of multiple linear regression model and the stepwise regression, the paper also finds out the main factors influencing the consumption level of residents. Using R language and analyzing the results of the research, we can draw the conclusion that the national per capita disposable income, ordinary college students and consumer price index and GDP are the main factors that affect the consumption level of Chine.
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research (IJCER) ijceronline
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research(IJCER) is an intentional online Journal in English monthly publishing journal. This Journal publish original research work that contributes significantly to further the scientific knowledge in engineering and Technology
This paper provides a structured way of thinking the design and construction of a composite indicator whose purpose is to facilitate ranking EU countries by Health System Performance and/or assess their progress over time on complex and multi-dimensional health issues.
An assessment of the the BER's manufacturing survey in South AfricaGeorge Kershoff
Firm weights are applied to the qualitative responses of participants to calculate business tendency survey (BTS) results. Sector weights are employed to produce higher levels of aggregation. What impact does weighting have on the accuracy of the BTS results?
Potential Fault Lines Under the Utility’s Customer StrategyCindy Rogers
The Annual State of the Customer Survey tests the most basic assumptions underpinning the customer strategy of energy utilities. We found that most customers believe utilities provide good customer service. Most customers value their utility over other service providers.
We also asked questions about new offerings, such as residential solar energy and electric vehicles. We explored the level of customer trust in utilities. We identified growing fault lines beneath the utility, especially with investor-owned utilities. We determined that the assumptions around reliability, equity, and ownership may be outdated. Like all fault lines, it is necessary to dig to see them. In this case, we began to ask the tough questions of consumers to get their input
REPORTby Assignment 1 Asssignment 1Submission dat e 30.docxsodhi3
REPORT
by Assignment 1 Asssignment 1
Submission dat e : 30- Jan- 2018 06:37 AM (UT C- 0800)
Submission ID: 9087 314 35
File name : Linear_Regressio n_SLP_2_by_T eresa_Co wad.do cx (50.98K)
Word count : 1296
Charact e r count : 7 133
48%
SIMILARIT Y INDEX
27%
INT ERNET SOURCES
14%
PUBLICAT IONS
42%
ST UDENT PAPERS
1 14%
2 12%
3 4%
4 3%
5 3%
6 3%
7 2%
REPORT
ORIGINALITY REPORT
PRIMARY SOURCES
brainmass.com
Int ernet Source
Submitted to Trident University International
St udent Paper
www.statisticshowto.com
Int ernet Source
www.internationalresearchjournalof f inanceandeconomics.com
Int ernet Source
Submitted to American Public University
System
St udent Paper
www.ref erence.com
Int ernet Source
Luca Gugliermetti, Gianf ranco Caruso, Luca
Saraceno. "Prediction of subcooled f low boiling
pressure drops in small circular tubes",
International Journal of Heat and Mass
Transf er, 2017
Publicat ion
8 2%
9 1%
10 1%
11 1%
12 1%
13 1%
Exclude quo tes Of f
Exclude biblio graphy Of f
Exclude matches Of f
Submitted to American Intercontinental
University Online
St udent Paper
Submitted to University of Witwatersrand
St udent Paper
Li, Xuejiao, and Takashi Hibiki. "Frictional
pressure drop correlation f or two-phase f lows
in mini and micro single-channels",
International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 2017.
Publicat ion
hec.gov.pk
Int ernet Source
www.jolst.net
Int ernet Source
Hamed Fazlollahtabar, Mohammad Ali Ehsani.
"Integration between Regression Model and
Fuzzy Logic Approach f or Analyzing Various
Electronic Commerce Ef f ects on Economic
Growth in Organizations", Journal of Electronic
Commerce in Organizations, 2010
Publicat ion
FINAL GRADE
/0
REPORT
GRADEMARK REPORT
GENERAL COMMENTS
Instructor
PAGE 1
PAGE 2
PAGE 3
PAGE 4
PAGE 5
PAGE 6
PAGE 7
REPORTby Assignment 1 Asssignment 1REPORTORIGINALITY REPORTPRIMARY SOURCESREPORTGRADEMARK REPORTFINAL GRADEGENERAL COMMENTSInstructor
REPORT 2
by Ass 2 Ass 2
Submission date: 30-Jan-2018 06:38AM (UTC-0800)
Submission ID: 908731785
File name: Linear_Ref ression_Case_2_by_Teresa_Coward.docx (52.24K)
Word count: 1360
Character count: 7692
56%
SIMILARITY INDEX
32%
INTERNET SOURCES
21%
PUBLICATIONS
53%
STUDENT PAPERS
1 11%
2 10%
3 6%
4 4%
5 3%
6 2%
7 2%
8
REPORT 2
ORIGINALITY REPORT
PRIMARY SOURCES
Submitted to Trident University International
Student Paper
Submitted to Colorado Technical University
Online
Student Paper
Submitted to American Public University
System
Student Paper
www.statisticshowto.com
Internet Source
Submitted to Southern New Hampshire
University - Continuing Education
Student Paper
swdllc.paresspacewarpresearch.org
Internet Source
Submitted to American Intercontinental
University Online
Student Paper
Submitted to Laureate Higher Education Group
2%
9 2%
10 2%
11 2%
12 1%
13 1%
14 1%
15 1%
16 1%
17 1%
18 1%
Student Paper
brainmass.com
Internet Source
cc.msnscache.com ...
An Empirical Study on the Change of Consumption Level of Chinese ResidentsDr. Amarjeet Singh
With the rapid development of Chinese economy since the reform and opening up, people's living standards have been improved, and people's consumption level has been gradually improved. Consumption plays an important role in stimulating economic growth. At present, China needs to adjust its economic structure and optimize its industrial structure. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the factors that affect the consumption level of Chinese residents and study the main factors for promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Chinese economy. Therefore, based on the statistical data from 1995 to 2018, this paper collects the variable data that affects the consumption level of residents, such as the freight volume of infrastructure railway and highway, the per capita disposable income of national residents, ordinary college students, the consumer price index of residents, the average real wage index and the gross domestic product. And through the establishment of multiple linear regression model and the stepwise regression, the paper also finds out the main factors influencing the consumption level of residents. Using R language and analyzing the results of the research, we can draw the conclusion that the national per capita disposable income, ordinary college students and consumer price index and GDP are the main factors that affect the consumption level of Chine.
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research (IJCER) ijceronline
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research(IJCER) is an intentional online Journal in English monthly publishing journal. This Journal publish original research work that contributes significantly to further the scientific knowledge in engineering and Technology
This paper provides a structured way of thinking the design and construction of a composite indicator whose purpose is to facilitate ranking EU countries by Health System Performance and/or assess their progress over time on complex and multi-dimensional health issues.
An assessment of the the BER's manufacturing survey in South AfricaGeorge Kershoff
Firm weights are applied to the qualitative responses of participants to calculate business tendency survey (BTS) results. Sector weights are employed to produce higher levels of aggregation. What impact does weighting have on the accuracy of the BTS results?
Potential Fault Lines Under the Utility’s Customer StrategyCindy Rogers
The Annual State of the Customer Survey tests the most basic assumptions underpinning the customer strategy of energy utilities. We found that most customers believe utilities provide good customer service. Most customers value their utility over other service providers.
We also asked questions about new offerings, such as residential solar energy and electric vehicles. We explored the level of customer trust in utilities. We identified growing fault lines beneath the utility, especially with investor-owned utilities. We determined that the assumptions around reliability, equity, and ownership may be outdated. Like all fault lines, it is necessary to dig to see them. In this case, we began to ask the tough questions of consumers to get their input
REPORTby Assignment 1 Asssignment 1Submission dat e 30.docxsodhi3
REPORT
by Assignment 1 Asssignment 1
Submission dat e : 30- Jan- 2018 06:37 AM (UT C- 0800)
Submission ID: 9087 314 35
File name : Linear_Regressio n_SLP_2_by_T eresa_Co wad.do cx (50.98K)
Word count : 1296
Charact e r count : 7 133
48%
SIMILARIT Y INDEX
27%
INT ERNET SOURCES
14%
PUBLICAT IONS
42%
ST UDENT PAPERS
1 14%
2 12%
3 4%
4 3%
5 3%
6 3%
7 2%
REPORT
ORIGINALITY REPORT
PRIMARY SOURCES
brainmass.com
Int ernet Source
Submitted to Trident University International
St udent Paper
www.statisticshowto.com
Int ernet Source
www.internationalresearchjournalof f inanceandeconomics.com
Int ernet Source
Submitted to American Public University
System
St udent Paper
www.ref erence.com
Int ernet Source
Luca Gugliermetti, Gianf ranco Caruso, Luca
Saraceno. "Prediction of subcooled f low boiling
pressure drops in small circular tubes",
International Journal of Heat and Mass
Transf er, 2017
Publicat ion
8 2%
9 1%
10 1%
11 1%
12 1%
13 1%
Exclude quo tes Of f
Exclude biblio graphy Of f
Exclude matches Of f
Submitted to American Intercontinental
University Online
St udent Paper
Submitted to University of Witwatersrand
St udent Paper
Li, Xuejiao, and Takashi Hibiki. "Frictional
pressure drop correlation f or two-phase f lows
in mini and micro single-channels",
International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 2017.
Publicat ion
hec.gov.pk
Int ernet Source
www.jolst.net
Int ernet Source
Hamed Fazlollahtabar, Mohammad Ali Ehsani.
"Integration between Regression Model and
Fuzzy Logic Approach f or Analyzing Various
Electronic Commerce Ef f ects on Economic
Growth in Organizations", Journal of Electronic
Commerce in Organizations, 2010
Publicat ion
FINAL GRADE
/0
REPORT
GRADEMARK REPORT
GENERAL COMMENTS
Instructor
PAGE 1
PAGE 2
PAGE 3
PAGE 4
PAGE 5
PAGE 6
PAGE 7
REPORTby Assignment 1 Asssignment 1REPORTORIGINALITY REPORTPRIMARY SOURCESREPORTGRADEMARK REPORTFINAL GRADEGENERAL COMMENTSInstructor
REPORT 2
by Ass 2 Ass 2
Submission date: 30-Jan-2018 06:38AM (UTC-0800)
Submission ID: 908731785
File name: Linear_Ref ression_Case_2_by_Teresa_Coward.docx (52.24K)
Word count: 1360
Character count: 7692
56%
SIMILARITY INDEX
32%
INTERNET SOURCES
21%
PUBLICATIONS
53%
STUDENT PAPERS
1 11%
2 10%
3 6%
4 4%
5 3%
6 2%
7 2%
8
REPORT 2
ORIGINALITY REPORT
PRIMARY SOURCES
Submitted to Trident University International
Student Paper
Submitted to Colorado Technical University
Online
Student Paper
Submitted to American Public University
System
Student Paper
www.statisticshowto.com
Internet Source
Submitted to Southern New Hampshire
University - Continuing Education
Student Paper
swdllc.paresspacewarpresearch.org
Internet Source
Submitted to American Intercontinental
University Online
Student Paper
Submitted to Laureate Higher Education Group
2%
9 2%
10 2%
11 2%
12 1%
13 1%
14 1%
15 1%
16 1%
17 1%
18 1%
Student Paper
brainmass.com
Internet Source
cc.msnscache.com ...
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Actuarial accuracy 21st services study 2011
1. 21st Services - Experts in Longevity Analysis Page 1 of 3
21st Services
Home Financial Planning Services Life Settlement Services Institutional Services
Log In
About Us
Products/Order Now
21st Services'
Resources Actual-to-Expected is 94.7%
Contact Us
This summary of 21st Services' 2010 actual-to-expected (A-to-E)
My Account study incorporates all Senior Model Life Expectancy evaluations from
January 1, 2001, through March 11, 2010.
21st Services is pleased to announce the results of its latest A-to-E (Actual-to-Expected) study. It illustrates that
our underwriting process continues to perform well.
We strongly advise against relying on a single number for A-to-E, so we encourage all interested parties to review
the more detailed results by percentile and by duration which are presented below. We find those results to be
Experts in Longevity Analysis very favorable as well.
• Customized Longevity
Planning
This summary of 21st Services' 2010 actual-to-expected (A-to-E) study incorporates all Senior Model Life
Reports/CLPR Expectancy evaluations from January 1, 2001, through March 11, 2010. We utilized our current mortality tables
• Life Expectancy and underwriting methodology to calculate the expected deaths. Under the forthcoming LE Providers Group (LEPr)
Certificates Best Practices, this would be called the A-E, adjusted to current methodologies.
• Senior Mortality Data
• Policy Tracking Back in 2008, we re-calibrated our mortality tables and calculation methodology to reflect our emerging
• Custom Services
experience and because the Society of Actuaries introduced new VBT (Valuation Basic Tables) that year. At that
time, our data base numbered around 52,000 unique lives. The results of that calibration produced a very
acceptable A-to-E ratio of approximately 98%..
The current study, which incorporates 2 more years experience with approximately 30,000 additional lives,
validates the decisions we made in 2008. As we have indicated to many of our clients and in various
communications, the overall level of mortality has been accurately captured in our life expectancy certificates. Our
current A-to-E ratio of 94.7% is clear evidence of that.
We chose to utilize the above methodology to calculate A-to-E because it allows us to best answer
the question that we most hear from clients and prospective clients – “How do you know that the
Life Expectancy estimates that 21st Services is providing today are accurate?”
Notes about the report and methodology
As you review the various analyses below, please note the limited sample size in various categories. Our actuarial
consultants have advised us that the statistical credibility of 21st Services' overall underwriting portfolio is
increasing, but we could still see volatility in some of the categories.
Although 21st Services' data base is now large enough to reduce this volatility, 21st Services is taking steps to
vastly increase the amount of data on which our mortality tables and our underwriting system are based. We
believe that this effort will enable us to bring the same precision we enjoy on an overall basis to more granular
analyses, such as by impairment.
An important factor in A-to-E calculations is the IBNR assumptions used. The IBNR percentage – of “incurred but
not reported” deaths – is intended to correct for the time lag in reporting deaths and for inaccuracies in the Social
Security database. We assumed IBNR was 11% in year one, 9% in year two and 7% thereafter. We have noticed
that the number of deaths observed in 2010 (the last three months of the study) dropped off somewhat. This
suggests that there may be a longer delay in reporting deaths than we assumed.
Portfolio maturity and
its effect on statistical analysis
21st Services believes that no single A-to-E statistic can properly capture the performance of LE providers. At 21st
Services, our goal is to deliver excellent A-to-E results along many dimensions: impairment, age, gender, smoker
http://21stservices.com/science/ae.aspx 28/03/2011
2. 21st Services - Experts in Longevity Analysis Page 2 of 3
status and duration. We show performance along two dimensions in this review. The first set of charts shows A-to
-E by the percentile each of the cases has progressed along their respective mortality curves.
The mortality curve in the charts corresponds to the curve that is provided to clients
with each Senior Model Life Expectancy estimate. For the purposes of the charts,
the 5th percentile is the point by which 50 out of 1,000 like insureds were expected
to have died. Similarly, the 30th percentile is the point by which 300 of 1,000 like
insureds were expected to have died.
Classically, the 50th percentile represents the median in a mortality curve. As of
March 11, 2010, only 1,381 of 21st Services' cases had reached that point – too
small a sample to have much statistical credibility. In the 2009 study, only 685 cases
had reached that point.
The results of the March 2010 A-to-E study are shown in the first chart, and, in
contrast, the results of the March 2009 study are shown in the second chart. In both
charts, the middle rows show the number of cases and the number of deaths
predicted in each percentile of the mortality curve. At the bottom is the actual-to-
expected ratio for each percentile.
21st Services' A-to-E Study Performed March 11, 2010
Percentile 5th 10
th
15
th
20
th th
25 30
th
35
th
40
th
45
th
50
th
# cases 27,904 15,230 9,720 6,843 4,921 3,723 2,880 2,266 1,764 1,381
that have
reached
this stage
# deaths 1,395.2 1,523.0 1,458.0 1,368.6 1,230.3 1,116.9 1,008.0 906.4 793.8 690.5
predicted
by this
stage
Actual / 104.5% 104.1% 101.4% 98.5% 97.3% 99.0% 100.7% 97.5% 97.9% 100.5%
Expected
21st Services' A-to-E Study Performed March 31, 2009
Percentile 5th 10th 15th 20th 25th 30th 35th 40th 45th
# cases that 18,820 9,470 5,911 3,959 2,821 2,107 1,546 1,180 895
have
reached this
stage
# deaths 941.0 947.0 886.7 791.8 705.3 632.1 541.1 472.0 402.8
predicted
by this
stage
Actual / 105.8% 103.3% 104.8% 104.6% 105.3% 105.3% 106.2% 107.9% 105.8%
Expected
In the 2010 chart, we show experience only through the 50th percentile of the curve. The 2009 chart shows
experience through the 45th percentile. In percentiles 55-100 (50-100 in the 2009 study), the sample size shrinks
to the point where results are not statistically significant.
The small sample sizes at higher percentiles reflect the fact that 21st Services' portfolio of cases has grown very
quickly in the past seven years. Year by year, as our underwriting portfolio matures, the percentile cells will
expand, and sample size will cease to be a problem. But for now, we have data on many more cases that are still
in the 1st through 15th percentiles – more than in all the other percentiles combined.
In response to the need to better define life settlement mortality in the later durations, beyond the point at which
we have statistically credible experience, 21st Services has completed landmark research that compares life
settlement, life insurance and general population mortality rates. This research is available to interested parties
and will be published in 2011 by the Society of Actuaries, the governing body for life insurance actuaries in the
United States.
In March 2008, the Society of Actuaries released the 2008 Valuation Basic Tables (VBT). These tables represent
individual life mortality experience in 2008 and exhibit certain traits that make them ill-suited for use in the life
settlement market. There were indications of mortality improvement over the earlier version of the VBT, which
represented mortality in 2001.
http://21stservices.com/science/ae.aspx 28/03/2011