Deployable solutions to the energy crisis are in hand. The obstacle is our inability to differentiate between ideological and strategic thinking. Intelligent policy making requires that effective strategies prevail over ideological wishful thinking. “What can we do?” and “When can we do it?” must be our standards — not visions of a perfect world.

1. A Realistic Deployable solutions to the energy
crisis are in hand. The obstacle is our
inability to differentiate between
ideological and strategic thinking.
Intelligent policy making requires
Energy Strategy
that effective strategies prevail over
ideological wishful thinking. “What
can we do?” and “When can we do
it?” must be our standards — not vi-
sions of a perfect world.
Policy criteria are concerned with
time (when something can be done)
and doability (what can be done).
By Tsvi Bisk Time refers to short term, intermedi-
ate term, long term, and deep long
Energy policy must be realistic or it term. In other words, how we get
from here to there and what the in-
won’t work, says strategy analyst termediate steps would be. Doability
Tsvi Bisk. Fortunately, clean and relates to practicality — a policy that
reflects how real people actually live.
sustainable energy is more Anything else is irrational. Thus, a
rational energy strategy must:
realistic than you may think. 1. Presume the middle class will
not change its lifestyle. Policy pro-
posals based on fundamental
changes of lifestyle will fail and close
minds to environmental arguments.
People are willing to change on the
margins — replace present gas guz-
zlers with hybrids or electric cars, re-
place incandescent bulbs with fluo-
rescent or LEDs, pay attention to the
energy consumption of appliances,
vacation closer to home, work closer
to home (or from home), etc. They
are not willing to give up hot water,
air conditioning, or the flexibility of
private transportation.
2. Mobilize multi-partisan political
support. Policies that irritate large
segments of public opinion are not
politically doable in postmodern de-
mocracies — a fact annoying to ex-
perts, but still a fact.
3. Conform to the laws of econom-
ics. Taxing big energy corporations
might be emotionally satisfying but
WFS PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY C.G. WAGNER / IMAGES: PHOTOS.COM
will solve nothing, and, as with Pres-
ident Jimmy Carter’s tax regime in
the 1970s, probably will exacerbate
the problem. It is the equivalent of
kicking your dog because you are
angry it is raining outside.
4. Be equitable. A strategy cannot
depend on long-term direct or in-
direct subsidies, nor have a privi-
leged status before the law.
5. Include indirect costs and
yields. Internalizing the $50 billion a
year the United States spent in polic-
ing the Persian Gulf between the two
18 THE FUTURIST March-April 2009

2. © 2009 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved.
Iraqi wars, as well as other costs of Corn ethanol is similar to hydro- able reserves and actual availability
oil dependence, means that the real gen in that it also takes almost as of oil are two different things.
price of imported oil to the American much energy to produce as it carries. Developing these reserves entails
economy would be about $10 a gal- Sugarcane ethanol, on the other enormous capital outlays and long
lon at the pump. If the economic hand, produces nine units of energy lead times. Brazil’s recent deep-
benefits of producing energy within for every energy unit invested, but it ocean discovery, with an estimated 9
the United States (jobs created, busi- has several problems. Brazil, the billion barrels of reserves (similar to
ness activity generated, and tax reve- world’s largest producer, consumes ANWR in size), is a case in point. It
nues derived) are added in, tax all the ethanol it produces and will will cost about $150 billion to de-
breaks for alternative energy tech- likely continue to do so as its econ- velop and, like ANWR, will take
nologies become an investment that omy expands. Other potential devel- more than a decade before the first
would produce a greater return for oping-world producers will be small barrel of oil is extracted.
the economy and not only for the en- and likely use any product they gen- Both the Brazilian field and ANWR
vironment. erate domestically. The expansion of will be worth this tremendous in-
6. Be beneficial to the environ- sugarcane growth is beginning to vestment only if the price of oil is
ment. More energy with less envi- impact on rain forests, so its environ- high. In other words, drilling is not
ronmental damage is the only policy mental benefits are becoming ever the solution to high fuel prices; it is
that can mobilize the broad-based more doubtful. contingent on continued high prices.
support mentioned in criterion two. Palm oil is an environmental catas- See how many major oil companies
7. Be a combination of increased trophe — its growth is destroying will stand in line for licenses to drill
production (primarily from uncon- wide swaths of rain forest. Sugarcane in ANWR if oil hovers around $50–
ventional sources) and decreased ethanol and palm oil might be re- $60 a barrel. My guess is not many,
consumption. deemed by genetic engineering that unless they feel their lobbyists can
enables their growth in desert areas maneuver indirect governmental
with high-salinity water. This would subsidies.
Impractical Solutions
be a worthwhile research initiative, Energy maven Chris Nelder ar-
• Building nuclear plants. How but not a doable solution in a reason- gues that the real systemic problem
new nuclear plants are supposed to able amount of time. is “peak exports” or “peak availabil-
solve the problem of high liquid fuel • Drilling. Even Texas oil man ity” of oil. [See his article on page 6.]
prices is beyond comprehension. T. Boone Pickens says drilling cannot By the time ANWR and new offshore
Polls showing 60% of Americans in solve the problem. According to the resources in the United States, Brazil,
favor of nuclear power are irrele- U.S. Department of Energy, if per- and elsewhere get fully on line, their
vant — try building a plant in their mission for drilling in the Alaska Na- combined production will not equal
area. Inevitable local opposition will tional Wildlife Refuge were given to- the ongoing decline in exports from
turn any new nuclear plant into a 10- morrow, the first barrel of oil would oil-producing countries, due to in-
to 20-year project even if approved be produced by 2018; production creased domestic consumption.
by national authorities. would peak in 2027 at 780,000 bar- All 14 major oil exporters are mov-
Nuclear is not equitable. In the rels a day (mean estimate) and then ing up the value chain by developing
United States, the nuclear industry decline. petrochemical industries that use a
has been so legally advantaged in According to the Energy Informa- growing percentage of their domes-
terms of liability that one wonders tion Administration, the United tic oil production. Their citizens are
how it has withstood a real constitu- States was consuming 19.8 million also buying automobiles at a dizzy-
tional challenge. France’s protection barrels of oil a day in April 2008, ing rate. All, except Norway, have
of nuclear power is even more ex- down from the 20.6 million a day the had double-digit yearly increases in
treme. Nuclear plants also have the previous April. That is a savings of domestic oil consumption since 2005.
environmental problem of nuclear 811,000 barrels a day. In other words, In 2020, Russia might still be
waste. Previously claimed economic in one year, the United States had a pumping 10 million barrels a day,
advantages are now doubtful. Costs net gain equal to the total production but most likely will be consuming
per kilowatt of nuclear power are of ANWR in 2028. Yet, the price of oil 5 million barrels rather than the 3
twice to four times what estimates doubled during the same period. million it consumes today; in 2028 it
were only several years ago. might still be pumping 10 million
• Hydrogen, ethanol, and palm barrels a day but consuming 7 mil-
Peak Oil or Peak Availability
oil. Hydrogen is essentially a carrier lion barrels. We must remember that
of energy; it takes almost as much The debate about “peak oil” is bo- the United States was the world’s
energy to produce it as it carries. It is gus unless one assumes “peak tech- largest oil exporter in the 1930s but
a “killer application” straw man. Its nology.” Given advancing technolo- became a net importer soon after
advocates would be well advised to gies in deep-ocean drilling and World War II.
turn their efforts to more immediate, extraction from oil sands and oil Exports from Africa will remain
doable, and efficient energy alterna- shale, known and recoverable oil re- static as Nigeria’s exports decline.
tives. The documentary Who Killed serves will probably sustain them- Booming Brazil will consume all the
the Electric Car? highlights this. selves in coming years. But recover- energy it produces. The domestic en-
THE FUTURIST March-April 2009 19

3. ergy consumption of the rest of Latin uid fuel daily. coal would generate local jobs and
America will burgeon. Venezuela’s Incandescent bulbs should be augment local tax bases, garnering
production has declined significantly banned by 2010. Replacing a single support among the working and
under Chavez; more-competent gov- incandescent bulb with a compact middle classes. If we do not help coal
ernance will likely lead to increased fluorescent light (CFL) will keep half become a friend of the environment,
production but also increased do- a ton of carbon dioxide out of the at- we are in trouble. It is the fastest-
mestic consumption. The same is mosphere over the life of the bulb. It growing fuel source in the world and
true of Iran. If the Islamic regime is estimated that, if everyone in the the most ubiquitous, found on every
stays in power, production will con- United States used energy-efficient continent and in almost every coun-
tinue to stagnate. A progressive re- lighting, 50 average-size coal-pow- try. Millions of people depend on it
gime change will likely lead to in- ered plants could close. Similar sav- for their livelihood. Banning coal is,
creased production but also ings could be achieved in the for the time being, simply not do-
improved development and in- European Union, Japan, and South able. A rational environmental and
creased domestic consumption. Korea. Homes, businesses, and gov- energy strategy will have to make
Mexico’s constitution forbids for- ernmental offices could sell the green- room for it.
eign investments in the oil sector. Its house-emission credits thus earned to Coal-liquefaction installations
major fields are rapidly declining. a coal-liquefaction program. could be manufactured serially,
Domestic consumption is increasing. Alternative-energy companies much as Liberty ships were manu-
By 2020, Mexico’s exports to the could sell their products and services factured in World War II or F-16
United States could decline to a to homes and businesses as “loss fighter planes are manufactured to-
trickle. It might even be on the verge leaders” or “at cost” in order to accu- day, using the underutilized manu-
of becoming a net oil importer, like mulate greenhouse-emission credits facturing and human resources of
Indonesia this past year. It is already that they could also sell to a coal- America’s industrial heartland in the
down to a little more than a million liquefaction program, making the upper Midwest. Operating licenses
barrels a day, as production from its price of alternative-energy technolo- would be contingent on the coal
biggest field has dropped 34% in gies more attractive. Consequent in- companies purchasing greenhouse-
2008. Projections for Canadian oil creased volume of sales would gen- emission credits to offset liquefaction
sands cannot make up this differ- erate economies of scale and further emissions.
ence. lower the cost of dispersed solar and Within five years, the United States
Persian Gulf countries are now in- wind power. could be producing 1 million to 2
vesting huge sums in economic di- • Liquefaction of coal. The tech- million barrels of liquefied coal daily;
versification, which, along with pop- nologies for coal liquefaction have within 10 years, this could increase
u l a t i o n g ro w t h a n d i n c re a s e d been available since before World to 4 million barrels a day. The upper
standard of living, is pressuring ex- War II and can produce a barrel of oil amount would be limited only by the
ports downward. for about $30. Opposition derives availability of greenhouse-emission
from the fact that these technologies credits and new (cleaner) liquefac-
release more carbon dioxide in the tion technologies.
What Can Be Done?
conversion process than the extrac- The Coal-to-Liquid Fuel Promo-
• Conservation and accumulation tion and refinement of liquid fuel tion Act introduced in Congress in
of greenhouse-emission credits. from petroleum. 2007 provides a partial legislative ba-
Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and elec- To assuage environmentalist oppo- sis for this strategy — especially as it
tric cars should be advantaged for li- sition, liquefaction installations has as a major aim of making the U.S.
censing and other taxes. All none- would be permitted to become oper- armed forces energy-independent
mergency vehicles purchased by ational on condition that they pro- (by implication recognizing the na-
governments (federal, state, and lo- duce a half a ton of CO2 for every ton tional security aspects of energy
cal in the United States) should be of greenhouse gases eliminated by crises).
hybrids, plug-in hybrids, or electric other methods of producing energy. Other countries with large coal de-
by 2010. Purchasers, whether private Trading half a ton of CO2 for a ton of posits could follow America’s lead.
or governmental, would earn green- CO 2, the environment would get a The aggregate impact on the world
house-emission credits they could two-for-one benefit. Trading half a energy supply within a short period
sell to the coal-liquefaction program ton of CO2 for a ton of methane, the could be enormous.
(see below), thus providing an addi- environment would get a 20-for-one • Capped wells. There are approx-
tional economic incentive advantag- benefit. This would give the coal in- imately 200,000 capped wells in the
ing these technologies. It is reason- dustry an economic incentive to get United States. With current technol-
able to assume that this policy would behind some of the green alterna- ogy, each well could produce five to
result in a decline in the consump- tives described below. 10 barrels of oil a day. Within one or
tion of liquid fuels for transportation The United States has the largest two years, these wells could produce
of 150,000 to 200,000 barrels a day recoverable reserves of coal in the more oil per day than ANWR would
every year from inception. By 2020, world — equal to the entire world’s after 20 years. What is needed are
the United States could be consum- proven oil reserves. An energy-and- sufficient government guarantees in
ing less than 18 million barrels of liq- environment program that includes the form of long-term contracts and
20 THE FUTURIST March-April 2009

4. low-interest loans as an incentive for also. Another modification might be further assuming conventional do-
small oil producers to bring these to convert the gas into methanol mestic oil production declining to
wells back into production. Given rather than liquefied natural gas. 5 million barrels a day, while con-
historical precedent, we can reason- This would advantage the concept of sumption has declined to 18 million
ably expect that new technologies flex-fuel engines and freedom of barrels a day, the United States
that increase production rates and choice in transportation fuels. would be importing 8 million barrels
well life-span would quickly follow. Wind replacing natural gas and a day, compared with 12 million to-
This policy would be environmen- liquefied natural gas or methanol re- day. If the optimal 10 million barrels
tally beneficial in several ways. It placing gasoline are both environ- is achieved, the United States would
would avert the use of bunker fuel mental pluses. Again, the sale of be importing only 3 million barrels a
for the tankers transporting im- greenhouse-emission credits to the day, mostly from Canada. If con-
ported oil. Bunker is the most pollut- coal industry would be an additional sumption declines to 17 million bar-
ing transportation fuel in use today. incentive. If hybrids and plug-in hy- rels a day as a result of other savings
The combined world merchant fleet brids were modified to use liquefied in home heating and industrial use,
spews as much noxious gas into the natural gas or methanol in their flex- NAFTA will have become a net fuel
atmosphere as does the entire United fuel internal-combustion compo- exporter.
States. Lower tanker traffic would nents, there would be a tremendous
also lessen the risk of tanker acci- multiplier effect in terms of reduced
Likely Developments within the
dents and oil spills and eliminate the oil consumption and environmental
Next Decade
ballast detritus that oil tankers flush benefit.
into the oceans before entering port. The above three steps could add • Ethanol and biofuel from algae,
Bringing these wells back into pro- between 5 million and 10 million sewage, manure, trash, and gar-
duction would neutralize the fact barrels of domestic liquid fuel pro- bage. There are dozens of companies
that capped wells are poorly super- duction by 2020. The conservative around the world funded by tens of
vised and often leak into ground- estimate of 5 million barrels would millions of dollars of venture capital
water. be a combination of 1.5 million to working intensively on alternative
Lastly, reactivating capped wells 2 million barrels for each of the fuels. The biomass is enormous, and
would generate local jobs and aug- above solutions. But let’s say that breakthroughs could generate mil-
ment the local tax base. Tens of thou- enough greenhouse-emission credits lions of barrels of additional liquid
sands of them are owned by thou- were accumulated to enable coal liq- fuel by 2020. Algae alone could gen-
sands of small oilmen who have uefaction to the tune of 4 million bar- erate 2.5 million barrels on a surface
been begging the government to look rels and that T. Boone Pickens’s opti- area the size of Connecticut (the
at this option for a short-term bridg- mal vision of 4 million barrels is also equal of several corn-growing coun-
ing solution to the energy crisis. realized. Let us further imagine that ties in Iowa). Algae are the ultimate
• The T. Boone Pickens plan. This a new technology for extracting oil sequester of CO 2, which is its pri-
oilman turned wind-power guru has from capped wells comes on line, mary feedstock for growth.
an interesting concept: Replace the greatly increasing productivity. Algae-growing installations could
22% of domestically produced natu- Global Resource Corp. of New Jer- be constructed vertically (to gain
ral gas used for electrical generation sey claims that its microwave tech- maximum surface area while opti-
with wind power. Turn the natural nology can extract 100 barrels a day mizing land use) adjacent to fossil-
gas into liquefied natural gas to be from abandoned wells. It is currently fuel power plants and other CO 2-
used for transportation. The amount in negotiations with one of the larg- emitting installations. One must
of natural gas obtained would be the est oil service companies in the wonder why the coal industry hasn’t
equivalent of 38% of America’s cur- world to bring 10,000 of these wells become a champion of this energy
rent oil imports — more than 4 mil- back into production over the next strategy.
lion barrels. Pickens claims that this seven years. It is also in advanced Landfills around the world create
could be achieved within 10 years negotiations with Pennsylvania offi- as much greenhouse gas in the form
and would cut hundreds of billions cials to bring the state’s 4,000 ancient of methane as all the vehicles in the
of dollars off of America’s trade wells back into production. Simple world. They leak toxic poisons into
deficit. math shows that these two deals groundwater and pollute the soil as
The obvious caveat to his proposal alone would add another 1.4 million well as coastal areas. Economically,
is that gas-fired plants less than 30 or barrels a day of production within a they are a stupid example of land
40 years old will not be decommis- decade. One must assume that the use. Very few if any sewage-process-
sioned even if wind power is avail- initial success of these two projects ing installations are hermetic and
able. If he modified his plan to de- would result in other deals, as well 100% efficient; they also pollute the
commission aging gas and coal-fired as the development of competitive groundwater and commercial fisher-
plants over the next 10 years, with technologies. Thus, the optimistic ies. In essence, waste-to-fuel would
the coal thus saved becoming avail- prediction of 10 million barrels a day be a recycling of hydrocarbons — civ-
able for liquefaction, this concept in aggregate becomes not so far- ilization eating its own waste (the ul-
could probably realize a replacement fetched. timate renewable) in order to en-
of several million barrels of oil a day But assuming the minimum and dure.
THE FUTURIST March-April 2009 21

5. © PARKER DEEN / ISTOCKPHOTO ROLL CALL / NEWSCOM
Ethanol and biodiesel from algae
could become commercially viable
within the next several years and
provide us with another powerful
weapon in the energy war. The chal-
lenge for algae advocates is to radi-
cally reduce the cost of the extraction
and refining of biodiesel and ethanol
from the raw algae. At present it is
much too high and not economically
competitive.
E10 (gas with a 10% ethanol addi-
tive) can be used without retrofitting
infrastructure or automobiles. The
equivalent of 9.1 million barrels of
oil is consumed every day in the
United States as gasoline. If it were
possible to mandate the universal
use of E10 today, it would replace the
equivalent of 911,000 barrels of oil a
day (more than ANWR in 2028).
An “Energy Peace Corps” of engi-
neering and science students could Wind power is a great source of clean
help lower-income groups to convert energy and a path to affordable fuel: If the Liquid coal, a bottled sample of which U.S.
cars past warranty into flex-fuel en- United States were to invest in large-scale Senator Jim Bunning presents to an audi-
windmill deployment, the nation could save ence, is a viable source of alternative fuel.
gines capable of burning gasoline
its coal and natural gas for fuel purposes, Bunning sponsored the Coal-to-Liquid Fuel
with 85% ethanol. With modestly thus adding as much as 5 million–10 million Promotion Act of 2007, legislation that would
priced conversion kits, we could con- new barrels of domestic liquid fuel produc- create tax incentives for coal-to-liquids
vert 50 million cars, about one-fifth tion by 2020. technology and infrastructure development.
of the American fleet, saving at a Author Bisk singles out this legislation as an
minimum an additional 1.5 million example of highly rational energy policy.
barrels a day.
Plug-in hybrids with flex-fuel en- © MATT KUNZ / ISTOCKPHOTO
gines using E85 could be getting 500 PRNEWSFOTO / NEWSCOM
miles to the gallon of gasoline. The
sale of greenhouse-emission credits
to the coal industry would also en-
hance the economic benefits of these
fuels. The creation of such a huge
market would further drive invest-
ment and innovation, increasing pro-
duction and lowering costs.
• Electric cars. Various technolog-
ical and conceptual developments
are beginning to interact with in-
creasing consumer receptiveness to
the electric car. Greatly improved
batteries, quicker recharging mecha-
nisms, and innovative infrastructure
concepts are converging.
One intriguing model is Project
Better Place, the brainchild of Israeli
high-tech innovator Shai Agassi. It
has formed a three-pronged alliance
with the State of Israel, Nissan-
Renault, and international venture
capital.
The concept is an idea based on Windmills meet a portion of the Bahrain
the mobile-phone model: You pay a World Trade Center’s electricity needs. Max Hoover of GoodMart displays some of the
monthly service fee for the battery Even oil nations know the value of company’s energy-efficient compact fluorescent
and the electrical charge. They envi- clean and renewable energy. light bulbs and lamps for residential markets.
22 THE FUTURIST March-April 2009

6. CHINA IMAGING / NEWSCOM
sion 150 battery-changing stations
around Israel, where a driver could
© JEFF GYNANE / ISTOCKPHOTO exchange a drained battery for a
fully charged one in less time than it
takes to fill up a tank of gas. Agassi’s
inspiration came from NASCAR and
Formula One racing pit-stop tech-
niques. The battery-changing sta-
tions will be supplemented with tens
of thousands of plug-in points in
parking areas around the country.
The beauty of his concept is that it
makes intermittent renewables such
as solar and wind competitive with-
out subsidies. In Israel, battery sta-
tions will be recharged by solar
power; in Denmark, the second
Taxi drivers in Jinan, China, wait their turns to fill up their country to sign on, by wind. The
car gas tanks with liquefied natural gas (LNG). idea is particularly attractive to geo-
graphic or geopolitical islands. Japan
and Hawaii have signed on to the
© KAREN KECZMERSKI / ISTOCKPHOTO
project. But so also have Australia
and California. Mercedes-Benz,
Subaru, and a major Chinese car
company are also in negotiations to
Electric cars plug into join Nissan-Renault as the automo-
outlets at this Florida tive partners.
charging station and “fill Analysts at Deutsche Bank are en-
up” their power levels
thusiastic about Agassi’s business
much like conventional
automobiles at a gas
model of selling electric-car services
station. Similar charging like mobile-phone service. They see
stations are opening for it as a disruptive concept that could
business in Denmark, eventually transform the auto indus-
Hawaii, Israel, Portugal, try and neutralize petrodollar power.
No gas nozzle needed. This electric car uses a
Japan, and South Korea. Of course, Agassi’s model might
power-cord extension to juice up. be trumped by other developments,
such as batteries with a 200-mile
range that are capable of being fully
VIKTOR LISITSIN / ITAR-TASS / NEWSCOM charged in less than an hour. This in
effect would give an electric car infi-
nite range when taking into consid-
eration how real human beings actu-
ally drive. Who does not have rest
and refreshment stops over a 200-
mile trip? During a 10- to 15-minute
pit stop, or a 30- to 40-minute food
stop, drivers could top off their bat-
teries at convenient recharging park-
ing areas. Interstate-highway and
state-turnpike rest stops could be re-
quired to set up recharging installa-
tions. Municipalities could require
shopping malls to do the same. Fast-
food chains would compete for cus-
tomers by dedicating parts of their
parking lots to recharging installa-
tions. In short, both by mandate and
Garbage is an energy source at the Getlini landfill near Riga, Latvia, where bulldozers by competition such installations
consolidate it into hill formations so that work crews can trap the garbage’s gaseous emis- would quickly become ubiquitous.
sions and generate electricity from it. Landfills are both terrible sources of pollution and The environmental benefits of elec-
terrific potential sources of alternative energy, according to the author Tsvi Bisk. tric cars are self-evident. Various
THE FUTURIST March-April 2009 23

7. studies show that driving on electric- the environment would gradually products. Energy for the solar econ-
ity, even from coal-fired grids, would cleanse itself back into a relatively omy would be provided by space-
reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. pristine state. Algae growth would solar energy generators capable of
Using renewables, the environmen- top off any fuel shortfalls. operating 24/7.
tal benefits would be multiplied. But energy productivity must be- Our home, this Earth, will have be-
come the dominant theme in policy come a bedroom community.
strategies. New lighting technolo-
The Deep Future
gies, smart materials, and super-light
Final Note: The Optical Illusion of
The focus of this article has been composites (along with 100% recy-
Plummeting Oil Prices
on the United States, but energy, es- cling of organic waste into energy)
pecially oil, is fungible. The Euro- will enable humanity to maintain a With the price of oil dropping over
pean Union, Japan, and the rest of rich consumerist civilization at de- $100 a barrel within a six-month
the Organization for Economic Co- clining cost to both the economy and span, the shortsighted temptation
operation and Development (OECD) the environment. The theoretical un- will be to dismiss the above. But
could do much to relieve the global derpinnings for such a vision already since futurists think about the future,
pressure on energy supplies. Man- exist in the Cradle to Cradle philoso- consider the following.
dating and advantaging hybrids and phy of Bill McDonough and Michael The International Energy Agency
electric cars, as well as compact fluo- Braungart. They are already com- has just published a report that the
rescent bulbs and LEDs, would be an mercializing their theory through the world’s 450 biggest oil fields are de-
obvious first step. for-profit design firm they co- pleting at a rate of 9.1% a year! This
Countries could focus their for- founded, McDonough Braungart De- means that, barring major new oil
eign-aid efforts on making the devel- sign Chemistry LLC. discoveries, world production could
oping world energy self-sufficient. By the end of the century, lighting fall 38% to 52 million barrels a day
On the principle of one-half ton of technologies will have transcended by 2013.
greenhouse-gas emissions for every CFLs and even LEDs. Buildings will Even if oil consumption held at the
ton saved, they could build coal- be built from smart materials that present 85 million barrels a day, there
liquefaction plants in many develop- heat when it is cold and cool when it is no way that new oil discoveries
ing countries. When waste-to-fuel is hot, as well as turn sunlight into could make up for a 38% drop in
technologies become commercial- electricity. They will also have mini- production from existing fields. All
ized, they could be put into opera- depolymerization units that turn do- the oil in the Arctic National Wildlife
tion in every developing country. mestic sewage and garbage into fuel. Refuge would supply the world for
Not only would this have economic Buildings will have become com- only six months (using the most op-
benefit, since developing countries pletely independent, self-sustaining timistic estimate of reserves). The
suffer the most from energy volatil- energy units. world would need four to five new
ity, but it would also create jobs and Airplanes, motor vehicles, and Saudi Arabias by 2030 just to stay at
promote public health, since smol- trains will be built from super-light 85 million barrels a day. Alaska,
dering landfills and running sewage composites (the proper use of hydro- deep-ocean drilling, new offshore
are one of the greatest threats to pub- carbons) that at present are prohibi- drilling, drilling in national
lic health in these countries. tively expensive but which industrial parks — i.e., raping the land for ev-
In short, if the free world resolves engineers will eventually learn how ery last drop of oil — could not even
that humankind be liberated from its to produce cheaply. Imagine the fuel begin to offset these declines. Add in
addiction to oil by 2020, and by do- savings if a jumbo jet weighed only the fact that, with our present energy
ing so greatly lessen greenhouse 50 tons rather than 400 tons. The paradigm, consumption is predicted
emissions, it will be done. same principle applies to cars, trucks, to grow to 130 million barrels a day
The above is essentially a bridging trains, elevators, ships, construction over the next 30 years or so, and we
strategy designed to get human civi- m a c h i n e r y, a n d p o r t i n s t a l l a - must conclude that this energy para-
lization to 2050 safely. The liquefied tions — in short, anything that con- digm is unsustainable.
natural gas/methanol, coal, and sumes energy in order to move. And “Enjoy” present oil prices while you
capped-well gambits, being finite, if the fuel is an algae or waste deriv- can. As the world’s economy recovers,
will also run out of steam within 30 ative (infinitely renewable), you will, we will be approaching $150 a barrel
to 40 years from inception. in effect, have solved the problem. for oil in the next four to five years. ❑
The future beyond 2050 will de- The possibilities of space might
pend on continued progress in algae also have become a reality by 2100.
growth and waste-to-fuel technolo- All mineral extraction could come About the Author
Tsvi Bisk is the director of
gies. Human civilization must start from the asteroid belt or the Moon,
the Center for Strategic
planning to become a closed system and we would enable our precious
Futurist Thinking and the au-
by 2100 — i.e., 100% recycling of all planet to heal its scars. Space eleva- thor of The Optimistic Jew: A
human waste and zero externaliza- tors would lift up toxic waste to be Positive Vision for the Jew-
tion into the commons. Sewage and disposed of in that great incinerator ish People in the 21st Cen-
waste-disposal systems would be- in the sky called the Sun and bring tury (Maxanna Press, 2007).
come the major source of fuel, and down raw materials and finished E-mail bisk@futurist-thinking.co.il.
24 THE FUTURIST March-April 2009