Που χάθηκε και πως θα ξαναβρεί η κυπριακή οικονομία την ανταγωνιστικότητα της, Ομιλία στο συνέδριο PWC Cyprus - με ανάλυση στοιχείων και προτάσεις στηριζόμενες στο βιβλίο "Δημιουργική Κύπρος. Πολιτική μεταρρύθμιση για την Κύπρο του 21ου αιώνα", Αθήνα: ΠΑΠΑΖΗΣΗΣ.
ICD Revision 2013 Internal Medicine - DAY2Bedirhan Ustun
ICD Revision Process had a great meeting in Tokyo with the Internal Medicine Topic Advisory Group discussing the latest edits in Cardiology, Endocrinology, Gastroenterology, Hematology, Hepatology, Nephrology, Rheumatology and Respiratory Diseases
ICD Revision 2013 Internal Medicine - DAY2Bedirhan Ustun
ICD Revision Process had a great meeting in Tokyo with the Internal Medicine Topic Advisory Group discussing the latest edits in Cardiology, Endocrinology, Gastroenterology, Hematology, Hepatology, Nephrology, Rheumatology and Respiratory Diseases
Vendor Marketing Programmes - Making it work for Vendor and ResellerMariaGoggin
The marketing dilemma between vendors and resellers... Resellers want to talk about their businesses and materials from vendors often doesn't allow for this. To be cost-effective for vendors channel programmes need standardisation, but resellers want to personalise.
Διδάγματα από τον Δεύτερο Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο. Αξίες για μια δημιουργική Κύπρο.Stavros A. Zenios
Τι μπορούμε να προσθέσουμε εμείς-σήμερα στον πατριωτισμό, την υπευθυνότητα, την δύναμη της ελπίδας των πολεμιστών του Δευτέρου Παγκοσμίου πολέμου. Αν θέλουμε η μεγάλη κρίση που περνά η χώρα μας να είναι η αρχή μιας νέας εποχής αναγέννησης και δημιουργίας, πολλά έχουμε να προσθέσουμε.
Political risk in internationally diversified portfoliosStavros A. Zenios
We show that internationally diversified portfolios carry sizeable political risk premia. We propose a mean to conditional Value-at-Risk (MTC) optimization model for skewed frontiers to hedge global political risk, develop an inference test, and establish that diversification benefits persist with political risk hedging. The hedged international portfolio of US investors with no short sales outperforms the index in both MTC and Sharpe ratios. Gains persist when also hedging currency risk, diversifying in emerging markets only, and during the crisis period, and increase for long-horizon investors and with short sales.
The results have implications for the home equity puzzle.
The Cyprus National Initiative for Financial LiteracyStavros A. Zenios
Comments delivered at the panel discussion organized by Cyprus University of Technology. Offering suggestions on how to go about developing a national strategy and why it is important for Cyprus to do so.
Vendor Marketing Programmes - Making it work for Vendor and ResellerMariaGoggin
The marketing dilemma between vendors and resellers... Resellers want to talk about their businesses and materials from vendors often doesn't allow for this. To be cost-effective for vendors channel programmes need standardisation, but resellers want to personalise.
Διδάγματα από τον Δεύτερο Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο. Αξίες για μια δημιουργική Κύπρο.Stavros A. Zenios
Τι μπορούμε να προσθέσουμε εμείς-σήμερα στον πατριωτισμό, την υπευθυνότητα, την δύναμη της ελπίδας των πολεμιστών του Δευτέρου Παγκοσμίου πολέμου. Αν θέλουμε η μεγάλη κρίση που περνά η χώρα μας να είναι η αρχή μιας νέας εποχής αναγέννησης και δημιουργίας, πολλά έχουμε να προσθέσουμε.
Political risk in internationally diversified portfoliosStavros A. Zenios
We show that internationally diversified portfolios carry sizeable political risk premia. We propose a mean to conditional Value-at-Risk (MTC) optimization model for skewed frontiers to hedge global political risk, develop an inference test, and establish that diversification benefits persist with political risk hedging. The hedged international portfolio of US investors with no short sales outperforms the index in both MTC and Sharpe ratios. Gains persist when also hedging currency risk, diversifying in emerging markets only, and during the crisis period, and increase for long-horizon investors and with short sales.
The results have implications for the home equity puzzle.
The Cyprus National Initiative for Financial LiteracyStavros A. Zenios
Comments delivered at the panel discussion organized by Cyprus University of Technology. Offering suggestions on how to go about developing a national strategy and why it is important for Cyprus to do so.
Risk management for sovereign financing within a debt sustainability frameworkStavros A. Zenios
This is a presentation of my Working Paper with the ESM, available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3250806
@techreport{ESM-DSA:2018,
Address = {Luxembourg},
Author = {Athanasopoulou, M. and Consiglio, A. and Erce, A. and Gavilan, A. and Moshammer, E. and Zenios, S.A.},
Date-Added = {2017-02-17 19:16:07 +0000},
Date-Modified = {2018-08-21 19:09:44 +0300},
Institution = {European Stability Mechanism},
Number = {31},
Title = {Risk management for sovereign financing within a debt sustainability framework},
Type = {Working Paper},
Year = {2018}}
Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete marketsStavros A. Zenios
We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a countryâs GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear programming duality we compute also the risk premium. The model applies to coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds, and allows the analysis of bonds with different design parameters (coupon, target GDP growth rate, and maturity). We calibrate for UK and US instruments, and carry out sensitivity analysis of prices and risk premia to the risk factors and bond design parameters. We also compare coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds.
Further results with calibrated instruments for Germany, Italy and South Africa shed light on a policy question, whether the risk premia of these bonds make them beneficial for sovereigns. Our findings affirm that designs are possible for both coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds that can benefit a sovereign, with an advantage for coupon-indexed bonds. This finding is robust, but a nuanced reading is needed due to the many inter-related risk factors and design parameters that affect prices and premia.
Designing and pricing guarantee options in defined contribution pension plansStavros A. Zenios
The shift from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) is pervasive among pension funds, due to demographic changes and macroeconomic pressures. In DB all risks are borne by the provider, while in plain vanilla DC all risks are borne by the beneficiary. For DC to provide income security some kind of guarantee is required. A minimum guarantee clause can be modeled as a put option written on some underlying reference portfolio of assets and we develop a discrete model that optimally selects the reference portfolio to minimise the cost of a guarantee. While the relation DB-DC is typically viewed as a binary one, the model can be used to price a wide range of guarantees creating a continuum between DB and DC. Integrating guarantee pricing with asset allocation decision is useful to both pension fund managers and regulators. The former are given a yardstick to assess if a given asset portfolio is fit-for-purpose; the latter can assess differences of specific reference funds with respect to the optimal one, signalling possible cases of moral hazard. We develop the model and report numerical results to illustrate its uses.
Lecture delivered at the European Commission Directorate for Financial Stability and the Financial Engineering and Banking Society 6th Intnl. Conference, based on work published in two VoxEu columns and scholarly papers.
VoxEu columns:
http://www.voxeu.org/article/greek-debt-sustainability-devil-tails
http://www.voxeu.org/article/sovereign-contingent-debt-proposal
Scholarly papers on SSRN:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2478380
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2694973
The Case for Contingent Convertible Debt for SovereignsStavros A. Zenios
Presentation at Bank of England of the sovereign contingent debt design.
Full paper posted here http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2694973
Policy column posted at VoxEU http://www.voxeu.org/article/sovereign-contingent-debt-proposal
Three-day seminar given at the Central Bank of Thailand, December 18-20, 2015.
The material is based on my book published by Blackwell-Wiley Finance,
Practical Financial Optimization: Decision making for financial engineers.
Slides are available upon request (free).
Risk management optimization for sovereign debt restructuringStavros A. Zenios
This presentation discusses risk management optimization for sovereign debt restructuring. First, it introduced risk management metrics ---Debt-at-Risk and Conditional Debt-at-Risk--- in sovereign debt management. Second, is shows how to optimize debt restructuring. Third, it discusses the use of sovereign Contingent Debt (COCOs) in sovereign debt risk management.
It is based on work carried jointly with Andrea Consiglio and Ashoka Mody.
One paper is complete and posted at the SSRN link below as well as a Vox.eu editorial.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2478380
http://www.voxeu.org/article/greek-debt-sustainability-devil-tails
Presentation of a talk given at University of Luxembourg.
The Cyprus crisis is one of the most complex in the Eurozone, although in absolute terms the problem is insignificant. Inflows of foreign deposits in excess of 700% the island’s GDP allowed a «perfect crisis» to form and contagion from Greece destroyed overnight 23.6% of the GDP. Rescue efforts were (mis)guided by a confluence of European and local politics, conflicting analyses of the problems, and forbearance from the supervisors. Bank depositors were bailed-in, making international headlines. We will argue that the bail-in is a viable solution to banking crises but with potential significant adverse effects.
http://wwwen.uni.lu/universite/actualites/evenements/grande_conference_how_to_sink_an_island_mixing_politics_and_economics_in_the_cyprus_crisis
Transparency and Accountability: Civil society calls for reformsStavros A. Zenios
Presentation at the LSE-London School of Economics conference on "The Cyprus Recovery Plan: A Midterm Assessment".
Where I make two points: First that the narrative presenting Cyprus as a money-laundering-tax-haven is an unsubstantiated exaggeration used to facilitate depositor bail-in in dealings during the Cyprus crisis; second, that Cyprus civil society is mobilizing against corruption, demanding transparency and accountability from its political system. Concrete proposals made by civil society groups and the successes so far are discussed.
This is a review talk present at the 3rd Greek Public Policy Forum in Chania, Crete. A brief review of the state of the eurozone crisis countries highlights the problems created by the design of the common currency. Non-standard policies of the ECB are reviewed and their success, or lack thereof, explained. Some flawed decisions in handling the Cyprus crisis are also pointed out and the presentation concludes on how the banking union could overcome some of the current problems.
A preliminary version of my paper with Andrea Consiglio on scenario optimization for debt restructuring, presented at the Rome Summer School on Risk Management, LUISS University and
Presentation at Columbia University School of International Affairs, April 22, 2013. Full details of the event here https://www.facebook.com/events/249889465155114/
The Cyprus crisis is one of the most complex in the Eurozone -although in absolute terms it is a minor crisis. An analysis of the ongoing developments from different perspectives leads to the conclusion that we are witnessing a «perfect crisis» at the confluence of sovereign debt and banking crisis together with debt overhang of business and households and a severe decline of competitiveness. As a result CY has amassed a large external debt that can not be repaid, no matter what fraction of the country’s real domestic economic output is appropriated through austerity measures. Hence, fiscal austerity leads to deflationary stagnation and alone does not work. We advocate a policy response that addresses multiple dimensions of the problem with policy options of (1) austerity deleveraging, (2) structural reforms, (3) financial innovations, (4) partial privatizations and (5) debt restructuring. These options are drawn from lessons of what worked well, and what not, in crises of other countries and these lessons are summarized in lieu of conclusions
Societies get into a vicious cycle of ambivalence, procrastination, fai;lures and lack of confidence. This circle lead to Diamond's "collapse trap". Can such a vicious cycle be reversed? The author, in this talk delivered to a TEDxNicosia even on Re-Act, Re-think, Re-Generates argues that Yes! Re- has the power to Re-verse a vicious circle.
26. Ριζοσπαστική
πολιτική
• Κατεστημένο
Φορολογία
στους
«έχοντες
και
κατέχοντες»
• Ριζοσπαστικό
Περιβαλλοντική
φορολογία
27.
• Κατεστημένο
FDI-‐
για
να
κτίσουμε
mall
Με
εισαγόμενα
υλικά
Για
να
αγοράζουμε
εισαγόμενα
προϊόντα
(IRELAND!!)
• Ριζοσπαστικό
FDI
–
Υγεία
Παιδεία
Πράσινες
και
μπλε
τεχνολογίες
28.
• Κατεστημένο
Η
ΛΑΙΚΗ
έκλεισε
Υποκαταστήματα
ανοικτά
Εργαζόμενοι
πληρώνονται
• Ριζοσπαστικό
30%
μειώσεις
μισθών
Shared
work
Εσωτερική
υποτίμηση
32. “Anyone
can
count
the
seeds
in
an
apple,
but
only
God
can
count
the
apples
in
a
seed”
• Karl
Marx
“Society
poses
itself
only
such
problems
as
it
can
solve”
33. “Anyone
can
count
the
seeds
in
an
apple,
but
only
God
can
count
the
apples
in
a
seed”
• Karl
Marx
“Society
poses
itself
only
such
problems
as
it
can
solve”
• John
F.
Kennedy
“Our
problems
are
man-‐made,
therefore
they
can
be
solved
by
men”
34. “Anyone
can
count
the
seeds
in
an
apple,
but
only
God
can
count
the
apples
in
a
seed”
• Karl
Marx
“Society
poses
itself
only
such
problems
as
it
can
solve”
• John
F.
Kennedy
“Our
problems
are
man-‐made,
therefore
they
can
be
solved
by
men”
• Stavros
A.
Zenios
amendment
“Our
problems
are
man-‐made,
therefore
they
can
be
solved
by
women”