1. vii
DAFTAR ISI
Halaman
ABSTRAK ...................................................................................................... i
ABSTRACT.................................................................................................... ii
KATA PENGANTAR.................................................................................... iii
DAFTAR ISI................................................................................................... vii
DAFTAR GAMBAR...................................................................................... x
DAFTAR TABEL .......................................................................................... xi
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN.................................................................................. xii
BAB I PENDAHULUAN
1.1 Latar Belakang ....................................................................... 1
1.2 Identifikasi Masalah............................................................... 5
1.3 Maksud dan Tujuan Penelitian............................................... 5
1.4 Manfaat Penelitian ................................................................. 6
BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA
2.1 Pendahuluan .......................................................................... 7
2.2 Metode Peramalan (Forecasting)........................................... 7
2.3 Beberapa Metode Peramalan ................................................. 9
2.3.1 Metode Eksponensial Smoothing ............................... 9
2.3.2 Metode Box-Jenkins (ARIMA).................................. 12
2.4 Persediaan (Inventory) ........................................................... 14
2.5 Fungsi Persediaan .................................................................. 15
2.6 Biaya Persediaan .................................................................... 16
2.7 Model Persediaan................................................................... 17
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2.7.1 Model Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) dengan
Stock Out .................................................................... 19
2.7.2 Model Kebutuhan Tidak Tetap Selama Lead Time.... 21
BAB III MENENTUKAN PERSEDIAAN OPTIMUM DAN CADANGAN
PENYANGGA MATERIAL PRODUKSI SOLDER TIP HAKKO
900 M-T-K BERDASARKAN RAMALAN KEBUTUHAN
3.1 Pendahuluan.............................................................................. 24
3.2 Sumber Data.............................................................................. 25
3.3 Variabel Penelitian.................................................................... 25
3.4 Sistematika Pemecahan Masalah .............................................. 26
3.4.1 Plot Data........................................................................ 27
3.4.2 Metode Box-Jenkins (ARIMA)..................................... 27
3.4.3 Menaksir Parameter ...................................................... 32
3.4.4 Pemeriksaan Diagnostik................................................ 32
3.4.5 Evaluasi Model Peramalan............................................ 34
3.5 Prediksi Biaya ........................................................................... 35
3.6 Menentukan Distribusi Peluang................................................ 35
3.7 Model Kebutuhan Tidak Tetap Selama Lead Time................... 36
3.6.1 Menentukan Tingkat Persediaan Optimum................... 37
3.6.2 Menentukan Titik Pemesanan Kembali ........................ 37
3.6.3 Menentukan Cadangan Penyangga (Buffer Stock)........ 38
BAB IV HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN
4.1 Pendahuluan.............................................................................. 39
4.2 Data ........................................................................................... 39
4.3 Menentukan Model Peramalan ................................................. 40
4.3.1 Metode Box-Jenkins (ARIMA)..................................... 40
4.3.2 Ramalan dengan Model ARIMA .................................. 46
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4.3.3 Evaluasi Model Peramalan............................................ 47
4.4 Analisis Persediaan ................................................................... 47
4.4.1 Prediksi Biaya ............................................................... 48
4.4.2 Jumlah Persediaan Optimum (Q0) ................................ 49
4.4.3 Distribusi Peluang Kebutuhan Material Selama Lead Time
....................................................................................... 50
4.4.4 Titik Pemesanan Kembali (Reorder Point)................... 51
4.4.5 Cadangan Penyangga (Buffer Stock)............................. 52
BAB V KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
5.1 Kesimpulan ............................................................................... 53
5.2 Saran.......................................................................................... 54
DAFTAR PUSTAKA....................................................................................... 55
RIWAYAT HIDUP........................................................................................... 56
LAMPIRAN....................................................................................................... 57
