Forecasting the near term -- ideas from the past to now and the near term

1. BIS 302
INTERDISCIPLINARY FORECASTING
Near Future March 28, 2019

2. YOUR PRESENTORS
 Jeff Duntemann
 Science Fiction Writer
 Editor
 Publisher
 http://www.contrapositivediary.com
 Don Doerres
 Professional STEM
Mentor
 Rocket Scientist
 Science Fiction Writer
 https://www.slideshare.net/dondoerre
s
There really is
a computer in
here…really!
There is a
system to
this…

3. SPACE PAST
 In the late 1800’s into the 1900’s we had
edisonades of space travel.
 It wasn’t clear we would ever get there
 Jerry Pournelle said “I expected to see the
first man on the Moon but I didn’t think I’d
see the last”

4. EDISONADE
 "Edisonade" is a modern term, coined in 1993 by John
Clute in his and Peter Nicholls' The Encyclopedia of Science
Fiction, for stories based around a brilliant young inventor
and his inventions, many of which would now be classified
as science fiction. This sub-genre started in the Victorian
and Edwardian eras and had its apex of popularity during
the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Other related terms
for fiction of this type include scientific romances and
Voyages Extraordinaires. The term is an eponym, named
after famous inventor Thomas Edison, formed in the same
way the term "Robinsonade" was formed from Robinson
Crusoe.
http://www.primidi.com/edisonade

5. IN THE MIDDLE YEARS
 In the 60’s and 70’s it was the two world
powers (Remember US and THEM?)
 Space conquest was a surrogate war
 We won for a while
 Commercial space was unthinkable; only
major governments could afford putting
anything in space

6. MORE LATELY
 In the 80’s space was slow
 Telecoms
 Classified space (yes, things that go bump in the
night)

7. COMES THE 2000’S
 Elon Musk made a lot of money and found
he was bored ( I was there…)
 Now he declares he wants to go to Mars

8. AND NOW
 Many countries entering space.
 National pride, countries big and small
 Commercial communications
 Thrill seekers (Buy-a-ride)
 Pure science
 Cube Sats
 Micro Sats
 High altitude balloons

9. WHAT IS THE DRIVING FORCE?
 Aging NASA
 https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/691589.pdf
Pages 39-40: "Another trend, the aging of NASA's workforce, has both
negative and positive effects. About 56 percent of NASA's workforce is 50
years old and over, an increase of about 7 percentage points over the past
5 years. Officials said that NASA's workforce is aging because NASA has a
low attrition rate - about 4 percent annually - and high numbers of staff stay
several years past retirement. We also found that, as of the beginning of
2018, 21 percent of the workforce is retirement eligible, about another 23
percent will become eligible in less than 5 years, and the average number
of years staff that stay past initial retirement eligibility varied by occupation.
On average, individuals remain at NASA between 4-7 years past their initial
retirement eligibility date, but staff in the engineering and science
occupations stay on longer than other occupations, such as professional
and administrative.

10. THRILL SEAKERS
WEALTH AND THE DESIRE TO SPEND IT
 “Rides to space” at something approaching a
reasonable price
 $100K to $38M

11. NATIONAL PRIDE 1
 We have a treaty
 http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacela
w/treaties/intromoon-agreement.html
 The Agreement reaffirms and elaborates on many of the provisions
of the Outer Space Treaty as applied to the Moon and other celestial
bodies, providing that those bodies should be used exclusively for
peaceful purposes, that their environments should not be disrupted,
that the United Nations should be informed of the location and
purpose of any station established on those bodies. In addition, the
Agreement provides that the Moon and its natural resources are the
common heritage of mankind and that an international regime should
be established to govern the exploitation of such resources when
such exploitation is about to become feasible.

12. NATIONAL PRIDE 2
 Will the countries of the world follow the
treaty, or will first person there claim all?
This Photo by Unknown
Author is licensed under CC
BY-NC-ND

13. PURE SCIENCE
 Increasingly available technology at ludicrous
low prices (Crackerjack prize?)
 The desire to know

14. TELECOMS
 DirectTV and related
 Direct Internet and related
 Iridium
 Iridium Next
 Weather satellites
 Cellphone providers
 GPS
 Classified

15. THIS AND OTHER STERLING PRESENTATIONS
CAN BE FOUND AT…
 https://www.slideshare.net/dondoerres