Mary Meeker presented an overview of internet trends at the 2012 Stanford Internet Trends conference. Some key points from the document include:
- Global internet users reached 2.4 billion in 2012 with 8% year-over-year growth, driven largely by emerging markets.
- Smartphone subscribers surpassed 1.1 billion globally in Q4 2012, with 42% year-over-year growth, though smartphones still only account for 17% of total mobile subscribers.
- Tablet and mobile adoption is growing rapidly, surpassing desktop computers. iOS and Android combined captured 45% of the personal computing market in 2012, compared to 35% for Windows.
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dwp|buzz provides PR and marketing communications services across a network of fifteen locations throughout Asia, Australia, the Middle East and beyond.
dwp now delivers its iconic flair for design in a merger with the marketing communication services of boutique agency Bed Buzz.
dwp|buzz provides the following professional services:
Event Management | Public Relations | Branding and Design | Corporate Communications | Digital Marketing | Hospitality Concepts
Get in touch with us today at info@dwpbuzz.com and find out how we can add inspiration to the way you communicate your business.
Basic Stats – Internet Growth Remains Robust, Rapid Mobile Adoption Still in Early Stages
2) Re-Imagination – of Nearly Everything
3) Economy – Mixed Trends, With Negative Bias
4) ‘USA, Inc.’ – A Lot to be Excited About in Tech, A Lot to be Worried about in Other Areas
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Event Management | Public Relations | Branding and Design | Corporate Communications | Digital Marketing | Hospitality Concepts
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Basic Stats – Internet Growth Remains Robust, Rapid Mobile Adoption Still in Early Stages
2) Re-Imagination – of Nearly Everything
3) Economy – Mixed Trends, With Negative Bias
4) ‘USA, Inc.’ – A Lot to be Excited About in Tech, A Lot to be Worried about in Other Areas
5) Bubble – or Not?
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One such alternative that has garnered significant attention and acclaim is Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, a sleek, powerful, and user-friendly Linux distribution that promises to redefine the way we interact with our devices. With its focus on performance, security, and customization, Nitrux Linux presents a compelling case for those seeking to break free from the constraints of proprietary software and embrace the freedom and flexibility of open-source computing.
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2. Outline
1) Basic Stats – Internet Growth Remains Robust,
Rapid Mobile Adoption Still in Early Stages
2) Re-Imagination – of Nearly Everything
3) Asset-Light Generation – From Hand to Cloud &
Back…Rise of the Sharing Economy
4) ‘USA, Inc.’ – A Lot to be Excited About in Tech, a Lot to
be Worried about in Other Areas
2
3. BASIC STATS – INTERNET GROWTH
REMAINS ROBUST, RAPID MOBILE
ADOPTION STILL IN EARLY STAGES
3
9. iPods Changed Media Industry…iPhones Ramped Even
Faster…iPad Growth (3x iPhone) Leaves “Siblings” in Dust
First 10 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments, iPod vs. iPhone vs. iPad
40,000
4,000
100,000
iPad
iPad
iPad iPhone
iPhone
iPhone iPod
iPod
iPod
35,000
3,500
80,000
30,000
3,000
Global Unit Shipments (000)
Global Unit Shipments (000)
Global Unit Shipments (000)
25,000
2,500
60,000
20,000
2,000
40,000
1,500
15,000
1,000
10,000
20,000
500
5,000
000
000 111 2
22 3
33 4
44 5
5 6
6 7
7 8
8 9
9 10
10
Quarters After Launch
Quarters After Launch
Quarters After Launch
Source: Apple, as of CQ3:12 (10 quarters post iPad launch). 9
10. Android ‘Phone’ Adoption Has Ramped Even Faster –
Nearly 6x iPhone
First 16 Quarters Cumulative Global Android & iPhone Unit Shipments
700
Android iPhone
600
Global Cumulative Unit Shipments (MM)
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarters After Launch
Source: Gartner, Morgan Stanley Research, as of Q3:12. 10
11. Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far,
Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside
Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Users, 2012E
6,000
5B Mobile
Phone Users
5,000
Global Users (MM)
4,000
3,000
2,000 1B
Smartphone
Users
1,000
0
Smartphone Mobile Phone
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Note: One user may have multiple devices. Therefore the number of actual smartphone and mobile phone devices in use is likely higher than 11
the user data shown here.
12. Impressive 29%+ of USA Adults Own Tablet / eReader,
Up from 2% Less Than Three Years Ago
% of USA Adults Who Own Tablet Computers or eReaders, 4/09 – 1/12
35%
USA Adults that own tablet computers
29%
30%
25%
or eReaders (%)
20%
15%
10%
5%
2%
0%
4/09 9/09 5/10 9/10 11/10 5/11 8/11 12/11 1/12
Source: Pew Research Center, 1/12.
12
13. iPad = 48% of American Kids Want One for Christmas
While 36% Want a Mini…
Interest in Buying in Next 6 Months Among USA Kids Ages 6-12
iPad 48%
Nintendo Wii U 39%
iPad Mini 36%
iPod Touch 36%
iPhone 33%
Kinect for Xbox 360 31%
Computer 31%
Nintendo 3DS / 3DS XL 29%
Tablet Computer other than iPad 29%
Nintendo DS / DS Lite / DSi / DSi XL 28%
Sony Playstation 3 26%
Microsoft Xbox 360 25%
E-Reader 21%
Nintendo Wii 20%
Smartphone other than iPhone 20%
Kindle Fire 19%
Smart TV 19%
PlayStation Portable 18%
Android Smartphone 16%
PlayStation Vita 14%
PlayStation Move 14%
Samsung Galaxy (Note or Tab) 9%
Other Mobile Phone 8%
Microsoft Surface 6%
Apple TV 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Source: Nielsen, 11/12 13
15. Global Mobile Traffic Growing Rapidly to 13% of Internet Traffic
Global Mobile Traffic as % of Total Internet Traffic, 12/08 – 11/12
15% 13% in 11/12
% of Internet Traffic
10%
4% in 12/10
5% 1% in 12/09
0%
12/08 6/09 12/09 6/10 12/10 6/11 12/11 6/12
Source: StatCounter Global Stats, 11/12 15
16. In India, Mobile Internet Traffic Surpassed Desktop Internet Usage in
May, 2012 - Other Countries to Follow…
India Internet Traffic by Type, Desktop vs. Mobile, 12/08 – 11/12
100%
80%
% of Internet Traffic
60% Desktop Internet
Mobile Internet
40%
20%
0%
12/08 6/09 12/09 6/10 12/10 6/11 12/11 6/12
Source: StatCounter Global Stats, 11/12 16
17. Mobile Monetization Growing Rapidly (67% Apps, 33% Ads)
Global Mobile App + Advertising Revenue, 2008 vs. 2012E
$25
Mobile Apps $19B
Mobile Ad + Apps Spending ($B)
$20
Mobile Advertising
$15
$10
$5
$0.7B
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
Source: Gartner, eMarketer, Strategy Analytics. CAGR is compound annual growth rate.
Note: Apple has paid $6.5B+ to developers as of 9/12, implying gross app market revenue of $9B+ in 4 years; Google indicated during Q3:12
earnings call that its mobile revenue (from advertising and apps / content) run rate is $8B+, up from $2.5B mobile ad revenue run rate in Q3:11.
17
18. Mobiles + Tablets = 24% of Online Shopping on Black Friday in 2012
(vs. 6% Two Years Ago), iOS 4x > than Android
% of USA Black Friday Internet Shopping Traffic From
Mobile + Tablet Devices, 2010 – 2012
24%
% Share of All Internet Shopping Traffic
25%
20%
14%
15%
10%
6%
5%
0%
2010 2011 2012
iPhone iPad Android Kindle and Nook Galaxy Tab Other
Note: Black Friday (11/23/12) is the day following Thanksgiving Day in USA, traditionally the beginning of the
Christmas shopping season. On this day, most major retailers open early and offer promotional sales to kick off the 18
holiday shopping season. Source: IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark
19. Material Upside for Mobile Ad Spend vs. Mobile Usage
% of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2011
Time Spent Ad Spend
50%
% of Total Media Consumption Time
Internet Ad Mobile Ad
or Advertising Spending
40% 43% 42% = $30B* = $1.6B*
30%
25% 26% ~$20B+
20% 22% Opportunity
in USA
15%
10%
11% 10%
7%
1%
0%
Print Radio TV Internet Mobile
Note: *Internet (excl. mobile) advertising reached $30B in USA in 2011 per IAB, Mobile advertising reached $1.6B per IAB. Print includes
newspaper and magazine. $20B opportunity calculated assuming Internet and Mobile ad spend share equal their respective time spent
share. Source: Time spent and ad spend share data eMarketer, 12/11, Internet and mobile ad dollar spent amount per IAB. 19
21. Re-Imagination of a Big Idea…
We hope to rewire the way people spread and consume
information…We think a more open and connected world
will help create a stronger economy with more authentic
businesses that build better products and services.
- Mark Zuckerberg, Founder / CEO, Facebook
Letter to Potential Shareholders, May 2012
21
23. Re-Imagination of User Interfaces…
THEN… NOW…
(Keyboard + Mice = (Touch + Voice + Gesture =
Graphical User Interface) Natural User Interface)
23
24. Re-Imagination of Computing Operating Systems -
iOS + Android = 45% Share vs. 35% for Windows
Global Market Share of Personal Computing Platforms by Operating System Shipments, 1975 – 2012E
1983 1998 – 2005 2012E
Wintel - 25% Wintel – 96% Wintel – 35%
100%
Market Share of Personal Computing Platforms by
90%
80%
70%
Operating Systems (%)
60% Atari
TRS-80 WinTel
50%
40%
Apple
30%
20%
Other
10% Amiga
Commodore Android
0%
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: Asymco.com (as of 2011), Public Filings, Morgan Stanley Research, Gartner for 2012E data. 2012E data as of Q3:12. 24
25. Global Smartphone + Tablet Shipments Exceeded PCs in Q4:10
Global Unit Shipments of Desktop PCs + Notebook PCs vs. Smartphones + Tablets,
2005-2015E
1,800
1,600
1,400
Global Unit Shipments (MMs)
1,200
Q4:10: Inflection Point
1,000
Smartphones + Tablets > Total PCs
800
600
400
200
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Smartphones Tablets
Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks. Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. 25
Data and Estimates as of 9/12.
26. Global Smartphone + Tablet Installed Base Should Exceed
PC Installed Base in Q2:13E
Global Installed Base of Desktop PCs + Notebook PCs vs. Smartphones + Tablets,
2009-2015E
3,000
Q2:13E: Projected Inflection Point
Smartphones + Tablet Installed Base >
2,500 Total PCs Installed Base
Global Installed Base (MMs)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Smartphones Tablets
Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks. Assumes the following lifecycles: Desktop PCs – 5 years; Notebooks PCs – 4 years; Smartphones
– 2 years; Tablets – 2.5 years. Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. Data and Estimates as of 9/12. 26
28. 125 Years In, Landlines Were Surpassed by Mobiles in 2002
Global Fixed Telephone Lines vs. Mobile Subscriptions, 1994 - 2009
5,000
Global Installed Base (MMs)
Fixed Telephone Lines
4,000
Mobile Subscriptions
3,000
2002 – 2006
2,000 Mobiles > Landlines Landlines
Peaked at
1.3B
1,000
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: International Telecommunications Union. 28
30. 244 Years In, Encyclopedia Britannica Went Out of Print in 2012
Encyclopedia Britannica Hard Copy Sales vs. Wikipedia Monthly
Active Users (Different Scale), 1990 – 2012
1,000 1,000
Britannica Annual Hard Copy Sales
1990 – Britannica Sales 1993 – Microsoft Introduced Encarta
Wikipedia Monthly Active Users
Peaked at 120K/year Encyclopedia for PC @ $99
(Log Scale - 000)
(Log Scale – MM)
100 100
2012 – Encyclopedia
Britannica Announced End
of Print Editions
10 10
2001 – Wikipedia Founded, Today*
Wikipedia Has 485MM Monthly 2008 – Microsoft Shut
Unique Users Down Encarta
1 1
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Encyclopaedia Britannica Hard Copy Sales (000s) Wikipedia Monthly Active Users (MMs)
Note: *as of 9/12, per comScore global data.
Source: Kellog School of Management, Shane Greenstein and Michelle Devereux, “The Crisis at Encyclopedia Britannica.” 30
31. Re-Imagination of Photography…
THEN… NOW…
(Instagr.am / Camera+ / Hipstamatic…)
Dedicated Camera / Manually Always With You Camera (Smartphone) /
Transfer Digital Files / Develop Films Instant Digital Effects / Share / Sync / Discover
31
32. 169 Years In, Standalone Compact Camera Shipments Were
Surpassed By Smartphone (with Camera) Shipments in 2008
Worldwide Smartphone vs. Standalone Compact Camera Shipments
2001 – 2012E
700
Smartphone Shipments (MM)
600 Total Compact Camera Shipments (Digital + Film) (MM)
500
Units Shipped (MMs)
2008
400 2007 More smartphone units
Standalone shipped than compact
compact camera cameras
300
shipments peak @
149MM
200
100
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Digital Camera: 2001-2002 data per Photo Marketing Association; 2003-2012E data per IDC. Film Cameras:
2001-2005 data per Photo Marketing Association; 2006-2012E data per KPCB estimates. Smartphone units data per
Morgan Stanley Research 32
33. Re-Imagination of Navigation + Live Traffic Info…
THEN… NOW…
(Waze)
Physical Copies of Map in Car / User-Generated Digital Map /
TV, Radio Reporting of Traffic Info Live Crowd-Sourced Traffic Data
33
34. 20+ Years In, Portable Navigation Device Unit Shipments Were
Surpassed by Waze User Additions in Q1:12
Quarterly N. America + Europe Unit Shipments of Portable Navigation Devices (PNDs) vs.
Waze Registered User Adds, Q1:07 – Q4:12E
Q4:09
14 PND shipments peak
@ 13MM units
12
Registered Users Added (MMs)
Q1:12 – Inflection Point
Waze Added More Users vs. PNDs Sold
10
Units Shipped /
8
6
4
2
0
Q1:07 Q3:07 Q1:08 Q3:08 Q1:09 Q3:09 Q1:10 Q3:10 Q1:11 Q3:11 Q1:12 Q3:12
PND Unit Shipments (North America + Europe) Waze Registered User Adds
Source: TomTom, Morgan Stanley Research, Waze. PND data include units shipped in North America and Europe and
exclude in-dash navigation systems pre-installed on motor vehicles. 34
35. Re-Imagination of News + Information Flow…
THEN… NOW…
(Twitter)
Delayed / Dedicated Reporters + Cameramen / Real-Time / Citizen Reporting via
Regional or National Reach Mobile Devices / Global Reach
35
41. Re-Imagination of Borrowing / Lending Money…
THEN… NOW…
(Lending Club…)
Brick ‘n Mortar Bank Branch / Paper Online Interface / Apply & Get Funded in Days /
Applications / Lengthy Approval Process Lower Interest Rates For Borrowers / Better
Diversification / Returns For Investors
41
42. Re-Imagination of Idea Building / Funding…
THEN… NOW…
(KickStarter)
Flyers / Loudspeakers / Dinners / Checks Online / Social Distribution /
Real-Time Progress
42
43. Re-Imagination of Recruiting / Hiring…
THEN… NOW…
(LinkedIn)
Job Fairs / Campus Recruiting Events / Online Resumes / Social Relevancy For
Paper Resumes Recruiters / Searchable Skill Sets /
Endorsements / Recommendations
43
44. Re-Imagination of Product Design…
THEN… NOW…
(Quirky)
Secretive / In-House R&D Open / Crowd-Sourced / Collaborative Design / Live
Online Broadcast of Product Evaluation / 3D Printed
Prototypes
44
45. Re-Imagination of Selling Digital Goods…
THEN… NOW…
(Gumroad)
Dedicated Shopping Site / Fulfillment Democratization of Commerce / Leverage Distribution
Infrastructure Platforms such as Twitter / Facebook
45
46. Re-Imagination of Signatures…
THEN… NOW…
(DocuSign)
Scan / Fax / Mail to Return Electronic Documents / Secure Audit
Signature Page Trail / Instant E-Signature
46
48. Re-Imagination of Door Locks…
THEN… NOW…
(Lockitron)
Keys & Latches Lock / Unlock From Your Smartphone Anywhere in
the World / Keyless Entry with Bluetooth Auto-
Sensing / Wi-Fi Enabled
48
49. Re-Imagination of Thermostats…
THEN… NOW…
(Nest)
On/Off Switch + Wi-Fi Enabled / Auto-Learning / Auto-Sensing /
Temperature Setting Remote Control / Energy Efficient
49
51. Re-Imagination of Learning…
THEN… NOW…
From learning by listening to learning by doing…
Education and learning will become as much fun as
videogames. We call it ‘full body learning.’
- Bing Gordon, Interactive Arts Hall-of-Famer, KPCB Partner
51
52. Re-Imagination of The Rose Bowl…
Games are even more engaging for fans with the
sports screen trifecta - mobile / tablet / TV.
Megan Quinn, Stanford Fan, KPCB Partner
52
53. Re-Imagination of Data –
Big to Bigger to Bigger & It’s Still “The Wild West”…
In less than ten years, Facebook garnered massive volunteered (and
shared) big data from its 1B+ users – to tune of 300MM+ images
uploaded everyday / 125B+ friend connections / $3B+ in capex.
THEN… NOW…
Data as of 10/12, per Facebook. 53
54. …Re-Imagination of Data –
Big to Bigger to Bigger and It’s Still “The Wild West”…
Amount of global digital information created & shared – from
documents to pictures to tweets - grew 9x in five years to nearly 2
zettabytes* in 2011, per IDC.
Global Digital Information Created & Shared, 2005 – 2015E
8,000
Digital Information Created &
Shared (zettabytes)
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013E 2015E
Note: * 1 zettabyte = 1 trillion gigabytes. Source: IDC IVIEW report “Extracting Value from Chaos” 6/11. 54
55. …Re-Imagination of Data –
Big to Bigger to Bigger and It’s Still “The Wild West”
If Facebook can create a ‘front-end’ to massive amounts of largely new & personal “big
data,” in spite of huge initial resistance to “sharing” – think what can come to pass with
“front-ends” + connections to most types of data over the next ten years.
Headlines From The New York Times
• “Facebook Retreats on Online Tracking” – 11/2007 @ 50MM Users
• “Facebook's Users Ask Who Owns Information” – 2/2009 @ 200MM Users
• “Facebook Privacy: A Bewildering Tangle of Options” – 5/2010 @ 500MM Users
Facebook Global Monthly Active Users, 2004 – 2012E
1,200
Facebook Global
1,000
MAUs (MMs)
800
600
400
200
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
Source: Facebook, 2012E MAUs are KPCB estimates. 55
56. Re-Imagination of Data –
Help Me, Help You, Help Others…
Waze Jawbone UP Yelp
• 30MM Users, +3x Y/Y • Initial Launch of ~70K • 84MM Users, +37% Y/Y
• 600MM+ Miles Driven Users (11/11) = • 33MM User-Generated
per Month with Waze • 7B+ Steps Reviews, +49% Y/Y
Open • 800 Years of Sleep
• Re-launched 11/12
Source: Company data. 56
57. Re-Imagination of Always On…
Bluetooth Wi-Fi
~2B Bluetooth-Enabled Devices Shipped ~1.5B Wi-Fi Enabled Devices Shipped Globally
Globally in 2012E, Up 87x in 10 Years in 2012E, Up 5x in 4 Years
Personal Server in Your Pocket + Sensors / Signals Uber Alles
How Many of You are Wearing a “Wearable” Now?
How Many of You will be Wearing a “Wearable” in 5 Years?
Source: Bluetooth Data: IC Insights, iSuppli. Wi-Fi Data: In-Stat, Wi-Fi Alliance, ABI Research 57
58. Magnitude of Upcoming Change Will be Stunning -
We are Still in Spring Training
• Nearly Ubiquitous High-Speed Wireless Access in Developed Countries
• Unprecedented Global Technology Innovation
• Ultra Competitive Markets for Mobile Operating Systems + Devices
• Broadly Accepted Social + Interest Graphs / Information Transparency
• Fearless (& Connected) Entrepreneurs
• Difficult ‘What Do I Have to Lose’ Economic Environment for Many
• Available (& Experienced) Capital
• Fearless (& Connected) Consumers
• Inexpensive Devices / Access / Services (Apps)
• Ability to Reach Millions of New Users in Record (& Accelerating) Time
• ‘Social Emerging as Starting Distribution Point for Content,’ (Brian Norgard, Chill)
• Aggressive (and Informed) ‘On My Watch’ Executives at ‘Traditional’ Companies
• Unprecedented Combo of Focus on Technology AND Design
• Nearly ‘Plug & Play’ Environment For Entrepreneurs – Marketplaces / Web Services /
Distributed Work / Innovative Productivity Tools / Low ‘Start Up’ Cost
• Beautiful / Relevant / Personalized / Curated Content for Consumers
58
60. Who Ya Gonna Text? to tune of ‘Ghostbusters’
You Can Walk Out Your Door…
With the Clothes on Your Back, a Charged Mobile Device…
Cash in the ‘Bank’ & Happily Go a Very Long Way…
Photo: SVLuma/Shutterstock.com 60
66. From Hand to Cloud & Back…
Cherry Car Wash…
Pull Out Your Smartphone Set Location Choose Service
1 2
Rinse &
Repeat…
3
Review / Feedback Receive Service
Confirm / Pay
66
67. Asset-Light Generation –
Music…
Asset-Heavy… Asset-Light…
(Spotify, Pandora, iTunes…)
Pay for Ownership / Buy Albums + CDs in Pay for Access / Instant On-Demand Streaming on
Stores / Playback via Dedicated Players Internet-Enabled Devices / Discovery of Music
Through Friends + Experts /
67
68. Asset-Light Generation –
Video…
Asset-Heavy… Asset-Light…
(YouTube / Netflix…)
Pay for Ownership / Space Consuming On-Demand / Instant Access Anywhere / Paid for by
Advertising or Subscription
68
69. Asset-Light Generation –
Housing…
Asset-Heavy… Asset-Light…
(Airbnb / Onefinestay / CouchSurfing…)
Dedicated Hotel Buildings / Uniform-Looking Turns Any Privately-Owned House / Apartment / Room
Rooms / 60-80% Utilization Into a Unique / Local / Adventurous Hotel Experience
69
70. Asset-Light Generation –
Getting Around / Riding…
Asset-Heavy… Asset-Light…
(Zipcar / Uber / Hailo…)
One Car per Person / Inefficient Use of On-Demand Car / Ride-Sharing via Mobile Apps /
Resources Leading to Traffic Congestion / With Reviews / Location-Aware
Pollution
70
71. Asset-Light Generation –
Services…
Asset-Heavy… Asset-Light…
(Zaarly / TaskRabbit…)
Do-It-Yourself / Time (Virtual Asset) Consuming Getting Grocery Shopping / Laundry / Other Things
Done, all via Smartphone
71
72. Asset-Light Generation –
Textbooks…
Asset-Heavy… Asset-Light…
(Chegg / Amazon Textbook Rental…)
Pay for Ownership / Expensive / Inefficient Pay For Usage Rights During the Semester / Up to
Utilization (Rarely Used After Course 3x Cheaper vs. Buying
Completion)
72
73. Asset-Light Generation –
Wallet…
Asset-Heavy… Asset-Light…
(Square / PayPal / Google / Apple …)
Wallet with Cash / Coins / Credit Cards / Smartphone is the New Wallet w/ Payment Capability /
Reward Cards Reward Cards / Boarding Passes / eTickets
73
74. Asset-Light Generation –
Employment…
Asset-Heavy… Asset-Light…
(oDesk, Freelancer, OnForce…)
Full Time / Fixed Cost Workforce as a Service (WaaS) / On-Demand /
Global / 24x7 / Variable Cost
74
75. Re-Imagination of Flexibility…
Easier for Consumers to Get What
They Want When They Want it…
Easier for Crafty & Flexible People to
Make Money…
76. NET, LOTS OF STUFF BEING RE-
IMAGINED AND THERE’S A LOT MORE
TO BE RE-IMAGINED…
76
77. Consumer Internet ‘White Space’
To Be Re-Imagined…
1) Ear (+ Body) - owing to better devices (wireless
Bluetooth) / services (Siri / Spotify /
Soundcloud...) / products (Jambox / UP…)
2) Car – 52 minutes per day by 144MM Americans
(76% alone)* spent in cars – largely untapped
3) TV – 3+ hours per day spent in front of TVs** –
way better devices / interfaces / interfaces
coming rapidly...Apple & Google footsteps
raising bar…50MM+ American households have
Internet-enabled TVs
Source: *US Census Bureau, **BLS, Morgan Stanley Research estimates. 77
78. …Consumer Internet ‘White Space’
To Be Re-Imagined
4) Back Pocket – 600MM+ credit cards in use in USA,
average American carries 3-4 credit cards in
addition to check cards / loyalty cards / coupons /
cash in wallet. 17% average credit card borrowing
rate vs. 1.7% 10-Year US Treasury bond yield*.
5) Education – $1.1T+ annual spending on education
in USA, $460B+ = post-secondary, cost of going to
college up +2x (inflation adjusted) over 30 years,
$914B** student loans outstanding ($25K per
graduating student), bigger than credit card ($672B)
& auto loans ($750B). Student loans up 8x over ten
years.
6) Healthcare – $2.6T+ annual spend on healthcare in
USA, 18% of GDP in 2010, up from 5% 50 years
ago, and 2x OECD average, 32% of Americans
considered obese in 2008, up from 15% in 1990.***
Source: *Credit Card #s per Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Credit Card interest rate per Indexcreditcards, 10-year Treasury yield
are 11/12 averages, per Dept. of Treasury, **Federal Reserve Bank of New York, *** Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services, 78
OECD, Center for Disease Control.
79. USA Student Loans Outstanding = $914B, Up 8x vs. 10 Years
Ago, Higher Than Auto Loan & Credit Card Debt
USA Household Debt (Ex. Mortgage) Outstanding by Type, Q4:2001 vs. Q2:2012
$4 10-Yr
Household Debt (Ex. Mortgage)
Change
Other -29%
$3
Outstanding ($T)
$589B
Home Equity +390%
$2 $672B
Credit Card +16%
$750B
$1 Auto Loan +60%
$100B $914B
Student Loan +814%*
$0
Q4:2001 Q2:2012
Note: *Federal Reserve Bank of New York improved measurement for student loans in 2011 and believes that student loan data prior to
2011 may be under reported. ‘Other’ cateogry includes personal loans, retail (clothing, grocery, department stores, home furnishing, gas,
etc) loans. There’re 36MM+ people with outstanding student loans in USA, average outstanding student loan amount was $23,300, per 79
FRB NY analysis of 241MM people with Equifax credit reports in 2/12. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
80. USA, INC. – A LOT TO BE EXCITED
ABOUT IN TECH, A LOT TO BE
WORRIED ABOUT IN OTHER AREAS
80
81. ‘Made in USA’ Smartphone Operating Systems =
88% Share from 5% Six Years Ago
Global Smartphone Operating System Market Share
(by Units Shipped), 2005 vs. 2012E
100%
Market Share of Smartphone OS
80%
Other OS
60% iOS
Android
Windows Mobile
40% BlackBerry OS
Linux
Nokia Symbian
20%
0%
2005 2012E
Source: 2005 data per Gartner, 2012E data per IDC. 81
82. USA, Inc. – Biggest Gap Between Revenue &
Expenses in USA History Outside of World War I & II
USA Inc. Revenue & Expenses as % of GDP, 1901 – 2011
50% $16
Revenue as % of GDP
(Left Axis) $14
Biggest Gap Between
Real GDP (in Trillions of 2005 Dollars)
40% Expenses as % of GDP Revenue & Expenses in
Revenue & Expenses as % of GDP
(Left Axis) USA History Outside of $12
Real GDP (Right Axis)
World War I & II
$10
30%
$8
20%
$6
$4
10%
$2
0% $0
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Source: 1910 – 1930 per Census Bureau, 1940-2011 per White House OMB. Real GDP adjusted for inflation, in 2005 dollars. 82
85. America’s Debt Level Relative to Other Countries –
You Do the Math…
2010 Gross 2010 Gross
Government Debt Government Debt
Rank Country ($B) % of GDP Rank Country ($B) % of GDP
1 Japan $12,009 220% 16 Hungary $105 80%
2 Jamaica 19 143 17 Israel 168 77
3 Greece 436 143 18 UK 1,699 76
4 Lebanon 53 134 19 Egypt 161 74
5 Iraq 97 120 20 Austria 272 72
6 Italy 2,445 119 21 Sudan 47 72
7 Belgium 452 97 22 Brazil 1,397 67
8 Singapore 214 96 23 Jordan 18 67
9 Ireland 196 95 24 Côte d'Ivoire 15 67
10 USA 13,707 94 25 India 1,046 64
11 Portugal 213 93 26 Netherlands 497 64
12 Iceland 12 92 27 Cyprus 14 61
13 Germany 2,759 84 28 Spain 848 60
14 Canada 1,324 84 29 Uruguay 23 57
15 France 2,110 82 30 Pakistan 100 57
Note: Ranking excludes countries with gross government debt less than $10B in 2010. Gross government debt includes intragovernment
obligations (such as Treasuries held by the Social Security Trust Fund in US’ case). Source: The International Monetary Fund (IMF). 85
86. USA Inc. @ kpcb.com / youtube.com / amazon.com
186K+ Total Views
32K+ YouTube Views
86
87. THIS CYCLE OF TECH DISRUPTION IS
MATERIALLY FASTER & BROADER THAN
PRIOR CYCLES…
87
88. Disclosure
The information offered in this presentation speaks to industry trends in general,
and should not be construed as providing any particular recommendations or
analysis for any specific company that is mentioned in this presentation. KPCB is
a venture capital firm that owns significant equity positions in certain of the
companies referenced in this presentation.
88