1. July 2010 Part 1 TechVest International TechVest Long Term Outlook: An Abyss. Stagnation for now.

2. Apple – The Minority Reaps Majority Profits

3. The Job Recession – Deeper and Wider

4. Mismanagement Collapsing the Private Economy

5. Government Jobs are NOT “Productive” BASIC ECONOMICS Even where government jobs pay taxes, the original bill has to have been paid from other taxes. This is called “leakage” … ~70% reduces the supply of Private Savings in favor of government net spending. Leakage also reduces velocity of proper re-investment. As productive (Profitable) as a private economy may be, government jobs will leak the lifeblood out of the system. Military ? Police ? Fire ? Medical Emergency ? Research ? … are those activities multipliers of the economy ?

6. Government Deficits “Eat” Private Surplus

7. ‘ 09 Government Debt still not net increase

8. But Govt Growth Inverts Long Term GDP Simply: as government spending has gone up, economic growth has gone down.

9. Government Spending Out of Control

10. Spending Freezes Will Not Regain Control

11. Health Spending Gobbling Up the Economy ?

12. Commercial Real Estate in the Tank

13. Commercial Delinquencies Triple in 12 mos

14. Plans to Buy New Homes Near All-Time Low

15. Government will Crowd Out Private Sector

16. Private Sector Took Another Dive Recently

17. 2 Private Sector Losing for a Decade … Barack Obama

18. The Somewhat Good (Flat) News

19. Where is this ? This is China.

20. Interest Rates may be “dead” for a While

21. We are now following Hi-Debt Japan Curve

22. Stagnation Despite Hi-Liquid Low Interest

23. ~450k Weekly Jobless Claim Stagnation

24. Unemployment Duration - Ridiculous Highs

25. Sharp Economic Interrupt late May ?

26. New Taxes Will Disperse the Private Economy

27. Hollowing Out of America’s Comfort Zones

28. Small-Biz Tax Increases: Wipe-Out of any Typical $1m Profit Maybe not Fed Tax 2011 Current Likely Max Possible ~ Maximum Impact per $1m Profit Estate Tax 0 55 55 ? Dividend Tax 15 20 39.5 -$50,000 Cap Gains 15 20 39.5 -$250,000 200+ Income Rate 35 39.5 44.9 -$150,000 MediCare Tax 0 3.8 3.8 -$38,000 SSA 7.5% Max 72k 150k No limit -$75,000 Net VAT Tax 0 1% 5% -$50,000 Health Tax /empl. 0 750 2000 -$2,000 ea Inflation 4% 6% 10% -$300,000 Dollar Value PPP 100 90 80 -$100,000 Gasoline Increase $3 $4 $5 -$20,000 EPA CO2 Tax 0 1% 2% -$20,000 Deductions Reduction 1% 3% 5% -$50,000

29. July 2010 Part 2 TechVest International TechVest Long Term Outlook: An Abyss. Stagnation has Opportunities

30. Any Good News ?

31. Entrepreneurism Rise Highest in 14 Years

32. Probability of a Second Recession is Zero ?

33. Probability of Near-Term Inflation is Zero ?

34. Employment Trends Might Turn in 2011

35. Is this level of Productivity Growth Good?

36. Labor Force Growth – Good for the USA … IF there are jobs

37. What to Do ?

38. Business will have to Finance “Internally” BASIC DELEVERAGING TRENDS If a business cannot charge monthly, customers will go to vendors that can (The XaaS Auto Industry Model). Customers have no more debt capacity, therefore financing games become history and only the creditworthy can buy. Vendors have to “make” their customers creditworthy by shouldering the burden themselves (the Government Model). Cost reduction is the sole survival strategy where prices are in deflation while some component costs inflate (Stagflation). International trade is about to get brutal. Source locally.

39. END ?