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Great Summer Stock Plays
Finding Short-Term Performers with Chaikin Analytics
Rachel Fox - creator FoxOnStocks.com
Eric Chaikin - Chaikin Analytics
June 24, 2014
© 2014 ChaikinAnalytics All Rights Reserved.Proprietary and
Confidential.
Welcome
Chaikin Analytics for Desktop 2
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
What We’ll Cover
(Intros…)
1. What is the Chaikin approach?
2. How do I use Chaikin to find winning trades?
3. Specific Buy and Sell Patterns
4. Special Offer & Opportunity
5. Q&A
3
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
4
Challenge: Information Overload
5
Solution
6
4
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and
Confidential.
The Solution: Chaikin Analytics
7
Chaikin Power Gauge
Clear summary of a stock's potential – with a record of success
• Financials
• Earnings
• Technicals
• Experts
Improves your trading batting average!
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Chaikin Power Gauge
Clear summary of a stock's potential – with a record of success
• Financials
• Earnings
• Technicals
• Experts
8
©© 20132013 ChaikinChaikin AnalyticsAnalytics LLC.LLC. AllAll RightsRights Reserved.Reserved. PrProprietaryoprietary andand Confidential.Confidential.
What is the Chaikin Power Gauge?
• Very Bullish-to-Very Bearish rating
• Indicates likely relative performance over 1-to-6 months
• 20-factor quantitative model looks at:
Financials, Earnings, Technicals, Experts
• Covers 5,000 U.S. equities
• 12 years backtesting, 3 years real-world performance
© 2014 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
A reliable indication of a stock’s potential, with a history of success
9
Power Gauge Performance
Russell 3000 - Large, Mid, & Small Cap stocks
Annualized return by Rating group vs. benchmarks. Note: Test results are equal weighted; R3000 and SPDR ETF are cap-weighted.
Very Bullish stocks are highly likely to outperform index benchmarks.
Results thru Q1 2014
© 2014 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Period Dates Very
Bullish
stocks
Russell 3000
ETF
SP500
SPDR ETF
All Real-
World
Performance
Jan ’11 -
Mar ‘14
+20.70%
annual return
14.99% 15.01%
Last 12 Months Apr ‘13 -
Mar ‘14
+34.29%
annual return
22.93% 22.21%
Year 2013 Jan ‘13 -
Dec ‘13
+49.59%
annual return
32.83% 32.13%
Life-To-Date
(includes test period)
Jan ‘99 -
Mar ‘14
+22.28%
annual return
5.07% 4.64%
10
Play Offense Well: What to buy
• Power Gauge Rating Bullish
• Price Trend Up
• Relative Performance Strong
• Chaikin Money Flow Strong
• Buy Signal in Chaikin Analytics
What to Buy: Classic Bulls
11
Play Good Defense
Turn Land Mines into Gold Mines
12
13
• Power Gauge Rating Bearish
• Price Trend Down
• Relative Performance Weak
• Chaikin Money Flow Weak
• Sell Signal in Chaikin Analytics
What to Sell: Classic Bears
Why I Love Chaikin Analytics
• Can be added to any trading process
• IS the missing puzzle piece of confirma: on
• Fits all styles: Growth, Value, Momentum, Long Term, Short Term
• Fits all levels: Beginners, Intermediates, Pro Traders
14
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Rachel’s 4-Step Process
15
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
1. Find Strong Stocks in Strong Groups
2. Confirm Fundamentals & Technicals
3. Find the Carrots! (Buy/Sell Signals)
4. Identify Technical Patterns
My Process: Step 1
• Find heavily saturated industries:
Highly bullish
• Select based on likely market direc: on over next (1‐2 weeks)
Highly bearish
16
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Loop through:
Very Bullish stocks in strong industries (Longs) &
Very Bearish stocks in weak industries (Shorts):
Do the fundamentals confirm the technical trends?
• Chaikin Analytics - great for finding strong fundamentals;
it incorporates predictive factors:
17
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• Analyst Estimate Revisions, Short Interest, Insider Activity
• Confirm Chart Technicals:
• Strong Chaikin Money Flow (accumulation), Strong Relative Strength, OB/OS
My Process - Step 2
My Process: Step 3
• Find the CARROT
• Of “Very Bullish” or “Very Bearish” stocks find Buy/
Sell signals
That’s the Buy/Sell TODAY indicator. Gives me lower risk
entry/exit point.
• Tells me when something it hot and ready to pop.
• Perfect for the short term.
18
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Step 3: Buy/Sell Signals
Focus on 2 types:
1. Overbought/Oversold Buys & Sells
2. Relative Strength Buys & Sells
Overbought Sell – Finds Bearish stocks which are overextended
rela: ve to their recent short‐term trading range.
Oversold Buy – Finds Bullish stocks which have become Oversold
rela: ve to their short‐term trading range.
Rela<ve Strength Sell – Measures the stock’s performance
rela: ve to the market as a whole. If the price has a risen but
not as much as market, Chaikin will give a sell signal.
Rela<ve Strength Buy ‐ Measures the stocks price rela: ve to the
market as a whole. If the price has fallen but not as much as
market, Chaikin will give a buy signal 19
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Step 4: Identify Patterns
20
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Technical Patterns
1. Consolidations
2. Reversals
3. Continuations
Look for these in another intraday trading system ‐ complementary to Chaikin
If the stock has been bullish for a while & Chaikin’s system
shows there is a buying signal BUT there is a technical
consolida: on pa ern forming, I’ll wait to see if the stocks next
technical pa ern breaks higher or lower.
Consolidations
Channel Symmetrical Triangle
Ascending Triangle Descending Triangle
• If the stock breaks lower out of a consolida: on pa ern, my guess would be that a
reversal pa ern is forming and I would NOT buy the stock.
21
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Reversals
Double Top Double Bottom
Multiple Top Multiple Bottom
22Head & Shoulders
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Continuations
Bullish Pennant
Bullish Flag
Bearish Pennant
Bearish Flag
Wedge 23
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• If the Consolida: on pa ern breaks higher, then my guess
would be a Con: nua: on pa ern is coming next. If I get
confirma: on of a Con: nua: on pa ern, I’ll move forward
and buy the stock.
Chaikin Analytics Demo
Let’s look at the system
24
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Trades I Made with Chaikin
25
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
EL - Estee Lauder 3/11 (short)
SGMA Sigma - 3/13 (long)
CKH- Seacor 3/13(short)
N - NetSuite 4/3(short) - also just shorted it today!
TFM - The Fresh Market 3/14 (short)
HII - Huntington Int’l - 3/20 (long) - “personality change”
TTM - Tata Motors - 4/30(long)
Rachel Fox: Short-Term Trading Tips and Strategies with Chaikin Analytics

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Rachel Fox: Short-Term Trading Tips and Strategies with Chaikin Analytics

  • 1. Great Summer Stock Plays Finding Short-Term Performers with Chaikin Analytics Rachel Fox - creator FoxOnStocks.com Eric Chaikin - Chaikin Analytics June 24, 2014 © 2014 ChaikinAnalytics All Rights Reserved.Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 2. Welcome Chaikin Analytics for Desktop 2 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 3. What We’ll Cover (Intros…) 1. What is the Chaikin approach? 2. How do I use Chaikin to find winning trades? 3. Specific Buy and Sell Patterns 4. Special Offer & Opportunity 5. Q&A 3 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 6. 6 4 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. The Solution: Chaikin Analytics
  • 7. 7 Chaikin Power Gauge Clear summary of a stock's potential – with a record of success • Financials • Earnings • Technicals • Experts Improves your trading batting average! © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 8. Chaikin Power Gauge Clear summary of a stock's potential – with a record of success • Financials • Earnings • Technicals • Experts 8 ©© 20132013 ChaikinChaikin AnalyticsAnalytics LLC.LLC. AllAll RightsRights Reserved.Reserved. PrProprietaryoprietary andand Confidential.Confidential. What is the Chaikin Power Gauge? • Very Bullish-to-Very Bearish rating • Indicates likely relative performance over 1-to-6 months • 20-factor quantitative model looks at: Financials, Earnings, Technicals, Experts • Covers 5,000 U.S. equities • 12 years backtesting, 3 years real-world performance © 2014 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. A reliable indication of a stock’s potential, with a history of success
  • 9. 9 Power Gauge Performance Russell 3000 - Large, Mid, & Small Cap stocks Annualized return by Rating group vs. benchmarks. Note: Test results are equal weighted; R3000 and SPDR ETF are cap-weighted. Very Bullish stocks are highly likely to outperform index benchmarks. Results thru Q1 2014 © 2014 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Period Dates Very Bullish stocks Russell 3000 ETF SP500 SPDR ETF All Real- World Performance Jan ’11 - Mar ‘14 +20.70% annual return 14.99% 15.01% Last 12 Months Apr ‘13 - Mar ‘14 +34.29% annual return 22.93% 22.21% Year 2013 Jan ‘13 - Dec ‘13 +49.59% annual return 32.83% 32.13% Life-To-Date (includes test period) Jan ‘99 - Mar ‘14 +22.28% annual return 5.07% 4.64%
  • 10. 10 Play Offense Well: What to buy
  • 11. • Power Gauge Rating Bullish • Price Trend Up • Relative Performance Strong • Chaikin Money Flow Strong • Buy Signal in Chaikin Analytics What to Buy: Classic Bulls 11
  • 12. Play Good Defense Turn Land Mines into Gold Mines 12
  • 13. 13 • Power Gauge Rating Bearish • Price Trend Down • Relative Performance Weak • Chaikin Money Flow Weak • Sell Signal in Chaikin Analytics What to Sell: Classic Bears
  • 14. Why I Love Chaikin Analytics • Can be added to any trading process • IS the missing puzzle piece of confirma: on • Fits all styles: Growth, Value, Momentum, Long Term, Short Term • Fits all levels: Beginners, Intermediates, Pro Traders 14 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 15. Rachel’s 4-Step Process 15 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 1. Find Strong Stocks in Strong Groups 2. Confirm Fundamentals & Technicals 3. Find the Carrots! (Buy/Sell Signals) 4. Identify Technical Patterns
  • 16. My Process: Step 1 • Find heavily saturated industries: Highly bullish • Select based on likely market direc: on over next (1‐2 weeks) Highly bearish 16 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 17. Loop through: Very Bullish stocks in strong industries (Longs) & Very Bearish stocks in weak industries (Shorts): Do the fundamentals confirm the technical trends? • Chaikin Analytics - great for finding strong fundamentals; it incorporates predictive factors: 17 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. • Analyst Estimate Revisions, Short Interest, Insider Activity • Confirm Chart Technicals: • Strong Chaikin Money Flow (accumulation), Strong Relative Strength, OB/OS My Process - Step 2
  • 18. My Process: Step 3 • Find the CARROT • Of “Very Bullish” or “Very Bearish” stocks find Buy/ Sell signals That’s the Buy/Sell TODAY indicator. Gives me lower risk entry/exit point. • Tells me when something it hot and ready to pop. • Perfect for the short term. 18 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 19. Step 3: Buy/Sell Signals Focus on 2 types: 1. Overbought/Oversold Buys & Sells 2. Relative Strength Buys & Sells Overbought Sell – Finds Bearish stocks which are overextended rela: ve to their recent short‐term trading range. Oversold Buy – Finds Bullish stocks which have become Oversold rela: ve to their short‐term trading range. Rela<ve Strength Sell – Measures the stock’s performance rela: ve to the market as a whole. If the price has a risen but not as much as market, Chaikin will give a sell signal. Rela<ve Strength Buy ‐ Measures the stocks price rela: ve to the market as a whole. If the price has fallen but not as much as market, Chaikin will give a buy signal 19 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 20. Step 4: Identify Patterns 20 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Technical Patterns 1. Consolidations 2. Reversals 3. Continuations Look for these in another intraday trading system ‐ complementary to Chaikin If the stock has been bullish for a while & Chaikin’s system shows there is a buying signal BUT there is a technical consolida: on pa ern forming, I’ll wait to see if the stocks next technical pa ern breaks higher or lower.
  • 21. Consolidations Channel Symmetrical Triangle Ascending Triangle Descending Triangle • If the stock breaks lower out of a consolida: on pa ern, my guess would be that a reversal pa ern is forming and I would NOT buy the stock. 21 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 22. Reversals Double Top Double Bottom Multiple Top Multiple Bottom 22Head & Shoulders © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
  • 23. Continuations Bullish Pennant Bullish Flag Bearish Pennant Bearish Flag Wedge 23 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. • If the Consolida: on pa ern breaks higher, then my guess would be a Con: nua: on pa ern is coming next. If I get confirma: on of a Con: nua: on pa ern, I’ll move forward and buy the stock.
  • 24. Chaikin Analytics Demo Let’s look at the system 24 © 2©012301C3haCikhianikAinnaAlyntaiclystiLcLsCL.LACl.l ARilgl RhitgshRtessReervseedrv.ePdr.oPprroieptraierytaarnydanCdonCfoidnefindteianl.tial.
  • 25. Trades I Made with Chaikin 25 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. EL - Estee Lauder 3/11 (short) SGMA Sigma - 3/13 (long) CKH- Seacor 3/13(short) N - NetSuite 4/3(short) - also just shorted it today! TFM - The Fresh Market 3/14 (short) HII - Huntington Int’l - 3/20 (long) - “personality change” TTM - Tata Motors - 4/30(long)