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Agile 群氓假设下的中国软件市场 powered by skysw 2009.04
目  录 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
身边的故事
谷歌音乐咱独有
人肉搜索哪里走 ---  中国 3.38 亿网民   或者 暴民
大妈被套中石油
股市的故事
理性市场假说
“ 寻找有价值的   公司,并无限   期持有其股票” 沃伦 .  巴菲特
大跌中的信心
混沌市场假设
“ 市场基本无效,   产品的价格取决   于参与市场的人   的行为!” 乔治 . 索罗斯
鸡生蛋蛋生鸡 “ 公司现在的股价”  “ 公司未来的现金流”  如何折现?
市场可操纵 澳元暴跌 黄金价格 国际油价
群氓市场假设
股民?氓民 易被鼓动,无清晰价值判断 我买了个 XX 基金, 一个礼拜翻了一番! 嗨… 真厉害啊 ! 改明 我也换你那个 !
我们的社会是否已然如此?
身边的商品 “ 在屎壳螂的国度里,只有卖大粪才能成功!”
再认识我们的软件行业
两个渠道
之一默契 专业化销 售 流 程
客户这么想 “ 用大牌子,不求有功,但求无过!” 所以我们搞软件的 口号就是:不求好 用,但求费劲 !
之二杀价
典型软件工程 项目参与者 项目开发者 项目负责人 真正的码农 无视软件价值 恶意压低软件价格
如何应对? 应对大品牌、应对价格战
学习  &  行动
咖啡卖成大蓝筹 “ 你可以不喝咖啡,你不会不知道星巴克”
咖啡的信仰 星巴克的故事: “ 要提供美国最好的咖啡豆” 当 28 岁的霍华德 · 舒尔茨第一次走进星巴克 位于西雅图的店面时…
顾客的教育 = = “ 最好的咖啡豆” “ 最好喝的咖啡” 品牌背后的价值链
我们不是也是一样?
敏捷的信仰 敏捷的哲学 变化的世界 敏捷的价值观 拥抱变化 迭代开发 敏捷的世界观 敏捷的方法论 反馈回顾 测试驱动 持续集成
客户的教育 = = “ 敏捷的实践” “ 最好的服务” 众人长期努力
过门的 Kappa “ 还是运动衫么!”
李宁与动向 VS 注:李宁同期市值  301.33 亿港元
Kappa 再定位 运动;时尚;性感;品味;休闲 ... 你  Out  了 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 理念再创一片蓝海 时尚
我们不是也是一样?
我们的定位 注重质量;定制开发;减少浪费 ... ? ? ? ? ? ? Your Choice  ? We are all consultant !
应对之策 ThoughtWorks Agile Practice Software Quality 咨询师的价值 (高端客户) 品牌价值链 咨询到开发 问题一:大品牌 问题二:价格战
孙玮   ThoughtWorks MSN : [email_address] BLOG:  skysw.blogbus.com

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群氓假设下的中国软件市场

Editor's Notes

  1. 1986 年微软上市 融资数额 可以买下办个纽约城
  2. 1986 年微软上市 融资数额 可以买下办个纽约城
  3. 专业化的销售正规军
  4. 什么叫 软件泡沫 你知道么? 软件泡沫就是做都做最复杂的, 用就得用最贵的,还得特难用, 显得用户水平高。
  5. 想像一下,在一个阳光明媚的上午,你来到西雅图星巴克的第一家店里,坐在一个透进阳光的窗前,要一杯香浓的咖啡,轻轻地翻开一本介绍星巴克历史的小册子!
  6. 从意大利到中国安家落户
  7. 敏捷咨询;全球交付;软件工具;项目营救;
  8. 高度化可定制的软件服务产品,并且按照人天模式收取费用