6. make the logic for growing the industry
further unavoidable. For one, it would be
“...even in the substantial
political turmoil of 2011, total
oil production fell only a
mere 5% , while natural gas
production increased nearly
10% over 2010 numbers...”
disastrously self-defeating for the country
to allow its petroleum sector to founder
in a time when Oil and Gas remains
the country’s largest internal source of
economic stability in the near and medium
terms. The industry now provides 90%
of the Egypt’s needed foreign currency
by some analysts’ assessment. Rapidly
growing domestic consumption is also
pushing the country to expand its oil and
gas industry: Egypt went from exporting
a third of its petroleum produced at the
beginning of the decade to becoming a
net importer of oil in 2012. The country
must produce more to support its growth.
the capacity to scale up its petroleum industry
quite quickly. This may prove crucial as the
untapped resources in the Western Desert
become better understood and explored.
From 2000-2008, Egypt had some of the most
discoveries of any country (#12), and USGS
estimations of Egypt’s offshore potential
(that is, not even reflecting the relatively
unexplored onshore, or potential for new
unconventional plays like those that have
animated the American market) put the
country’s technically recoverable reserves
above 4 times the official reserve estimates.
But even beyond the macroeconomic factors
pushing Egypt to expand its petroleum
industry, Egypt’s exploration and production
itself has strong fundamentals to sustain
it. Boasting decades
of experience and the “StratoChem’s domestic revenues have
infrastructure built
surpassed monthly projections every month
throughout, Egypt has
this year”
StratoChem aims to expand its role in this industry beyond the realm of geochemical analytical
services which it already dominates and into PVT services because it believes there is still cause
for optimism in the market. It is in keeping with the underlying positives in the Egyptian oil
and gas market that StratoChem’s domestic revenues have surpassed monthly projections every
month 2013, putting us on track for roughly 20% growth over 2012 domestic revenue levels.
The following report lays out in detail the positive indicators—obscured by current events—which
are creating a strong Egyptian petroleum industry.
3
7. Egyptian O&G Market in General
Largest non-OPEC oil
producer in Africa
Second largest
natural gas producer
on the continent.
Home to the
Mediterranean’s first
offshore drilling
Apache (second
largest total producer
in Egypt) had 88%
drilling success
rate in W. Desert
BP discoveries
offshore Med expected
to produce between
25% and 40% of
Egypt’s total gas
4
EGYPT is the largest non-OPEC oil producer in Africa
and the second largest natural gas producer on the continent. Situated at the crossroads of
Africa and Asia, with easy access to European markets by sea via its high-capacity refining
and LNG facilities, Egypt has long attracted petroleum exploration and supported its
production. The Egypti an crude benchmark, sold under the name Suez Blend sells at prices
pegged to the Brent crude price with a discount for the moderately higher sulfur content.
Major petroleum companies like BP, ENI, and BG Group have been active in the country
for decades, and Egypt was home to some of the Mediterranean’s very first offshore
drilling in the early 1980’s. Apache and Shell, along with a number of other mid-size to
small O&G companies have joined the others to round out the country’s top players.
EXPLORATION
Egypt’s petroleum industry looks strong by a
number of indicators. Today the country has
proven oil reserves of 4.45 billion barrels (28th
in the world) and natural gas reserves of 77
trillion cubic feet (16th in the world, 3rd in
Africa) according to 2013 CIA predictions. The
vast majority of wells being drilled are out in
the Western Desert, reflecting the low operation
costs of exploration there as well as the recent
history of high success by Apache there. Apache
is Egypt’s largest liquids petroleum producer and
second-largest total petroleum producer, and
in 2012 had an 88% drilling success rate in its
Western Desert ventures.
What’s more, major discoveries by BP (already
Egypt’s largest hydrocarbon producer) in the
offshore Mediterranean block have resulted in a
project expected to provide between 25 and 40%
of Egypt’s total natural gas consumption within
4-5 years. Such major discoveries like BP’s and
Apache’s drilling successes point to strong growth
potential in an as yet under explored country.
The relative lack of previous exploration in the
Western Desert, and the indications of huge
untapped deepwater Mediterranean reserves
bringing so much attention to offshore Israel,
Cyprus, and Lebanon lead most observers to
predict expanded exploration and production
in Egypt. As previously mentioned, Egypt was
predicted to have the most drilling activity of any
country in the MENA region for 2012.
Egypt ranked 12th in the world for total volume
of petroleum discoveries in the years 2000-2008
with an average discovery size of about 233
million BOE according to the energy consultancy,
IHS. Total proven reserves of crude oil and
RIG UTILIZATION
BY REGION
WORLD
EGYPT
8. natural gas amount to a total of around 18
billion BOE in Egypt. By comparison, the
proven reserves of Brazil, a country known
for some of the most active exploration in
the world, come to 28 billion, putting Egypt’s
reserves at over 70% of Brazil’s. Egypt’s
population on the other hand, is just 40% of
Brazil’s.
An analogous study of the undiscovered
resources in about half of Brazil’s offshore
area reached just a bit more at 86 billion
BOE.
This may explain why the countries actually
have nearly the same number of rigs. Brazil
had 121 rigs working according to Rigzone,
while there were 119 rigs in Egypt in March
2013 as reported by Egypt Oil & Gas.
What’s more, in terms of undiscovered
conventional resources Egypt seems also
to have considerable potential. The USGS,
in reports from 2011 and 2012, estimated
mean values for undiscovered technically
recoverable resources in both the Nile Delta
Basin and Red Sea Province (most of Egypt’s
offshore territory) to sit at about 75 billion
BOE of crude oil, natural gas and natural
gas liquids (NGLs). This is not accounting
for either the Western Desert or Southern
Egypt (i.e. most of Egypt’s on-shore territory)
despite the considerable production already
occurring in the Western Desert.
PRODUCTION
720,020
Liquids
(#28 in the world)
In 2011, Egypt had around
8,400 active wells. By comparison,
the state of Oklahoma, whose annual
production is about half Egypt’s, had over
120,000 wells in 2009 according to a state
report. Egypt’s total proven resources are
also about 4 times larger than Oklahoma’s.
Wells in the Western Desert usually cost
between $5 and $10 million.
bbl/d
2.2
Tcf/d
Natural Gas
(#16 in the world)
Egypt’s consumption of oil and gas both
have skyrocketed in just the past 5 years
to nearly 100% of production. At the end
of 2012, the country officially became a
net importer of oil, though it has strong,
consistent demand for its oil from Europe and
Asia should production levels again outpace
consumption. 51% of exported oil went to
India (60,000 bbl/d), 22% to Italy, and 6%
went to China in 2011, three of its regular top
buyers and countries with long-term energy
requirements. The country exported about
a fifth of its natural gas produced in 2011.
These gas exports went through the Arab Gas
Pipeline to Israel and Jordan, and through
its 3 LNG trains primarily to Europe (51%),
specifically, Spain. LNG made up 0.35 Tcf of
exports in 2010.
5
10. Instructor Biography
Hossam Ali
received his
B.Sc. in Geology-Geophysics in
1992 before continuing his studies
at Ain Shams University to complete
a M.Sc. in Geophysics in 2002.
Currently he is studying a Ph.D. in
geology and geophysics. With 18
years experience in the petroleum
industry as a Geochemist with
StratoChem Services, Hossam has gained extensive knowledge of
the geochemical history of different basins in the Middle East. He
has been involved in the geochemical evaluation of more than 2000
projects/individual wells.
During Hossam’s time with StratoChem Services, he has prepared
and given many Geochemistry courses for oil companies including
Badr Petroleum Company, Gulf of Suez Petroleum Company,
Qarun Petroleum Company, Merlon, Dana Petroleum, Tharwa,
Cepsa, Ganoup and EGPC in Egypt. Additionally, he has provided
this service to international clients, including Sudan (PetroDar),
Iraq, Lebanon (AUB), Nigeria, Iran (NIOC) and Tunisia (ETAP).
His specialization is in Geology/Geochemistry/Geophysics, where
he has participated in a number of publications regarding maturity
modeling, hydrocarbon generation, expulsion and migration and
source rock evaluation.
To contact the instructor: hossam.ali@stratochemlabs.com
www.stratochem.com