University of Canberra Performance Analysis in Sport research poster.

1. Passing Frequency and the Effect
on Scoring Variables and Outcomes in Basketball
Leigh SHERMAN
INTRODUCTION CONCLUSION
u3037038@uni.canberra.edu.au
In basketball, a team’s ability to score relies on the transition of the ball In addressing the primary aim of the study, it was shown that the original
into an attacking court position via a combination of passing and/or
dribbling. Previous research has looked at simple variable frequency RESULTS hypothesis was incorrect and there was no statistical significance between the
number of passes and scoring outcomes or the number of passes and shot
occurrence such as the number of passes in isolation and how this may
affect scoring opportunities (1). Other literature has suggested that one to position. Although there were trends in the data to suggest there may be a certain
Chi-squared analysis gave no indication of a relationship
two passes is associated with a higher level of success (2). Additional between the number of passes and scoring outcome X² (6, N= number of passes that are more advantages/disadvantageous, as suggested in the
research alludes to fewer passes being advantageous in broken fast break 1035) = 8.430, p = .208. The 7+ passes category was shown to research (2): of all passages of play, the analysis showed that the 7+ passing plays
play but also that winning teams make more passes in set offensive plays be least likely to result in a successful scoring play at 31.6% (SR were the most unsuccessful at31.6% while 3-4 passes were most successful at
(3). This simple frequency data is only useful to an extent. Currently there = -.5) in contrast to 3-4 passes which was the most likely of the 37.6%.
is a lack of research looking at how these frequencies interact with other passing categories to result in a successful shot at 37.6 % (SR =
common basketball specific variables, such as defence and shooting, .4). Other findings, in accordance with the research (4), highlighted the significant
which have been included as the literature has also identified them as advantage earned from a defensive perspective when applying pressure on a
important components (4, 5). Additional Chi-square analysis revealed a significant relationship shooting opponent with 77.4% of missed shots coming while under defensive
between opposition pressure and outcomeX² (2, N= 1035) = pressure. Likewise from an attacking perspective; 35.3% of unopposed shots
The primary aim of this study will be to determine if there is an optimal 63.249, p = <.001. were successful.
number of passes that lead to more successful scoring opportunities. Results also showed that 35.3% (SR = 4.2) of shots were
Additionally it will look at what interaction, if any, the other variables successful when there was no opposition pressure (Figure 2) and Further investigation into the data revealed that although the number of passes
have with each other. of all unsuccessful shots 77.4% (SR = .5) were attempted under and shot position were not related, shot position and outcome were. When in the
opposition pressure. key, attacking teams drew 79.5% of their free throws, a massive advantage
It is hypothesised that a low number of passes (1-2) will result in more considering that they are essentially unopposed shots, the advantage of which
successful scoring outcomes as it suggests a faster transition , drawing less was mentioned above and in literature (5). Additionally of all successful shots
pressure from both the opposition and shot clock.
40.6% came from within the key.
Taking into consideration the above findings, coaches should encourage players
METHODS and develop plans that look to attack the key as much as possible as it holds the
greatest potential for scoring opportunities, from both general play shots and free
A combination of hand and computer notational (using Microsoft Excel) throw opportunities. As well as this they should also encourage the team to try
analysis was used in lapsed time on 15 (n = 1035) games of the 2011 and work into space and look for players with the opportunity to shoot unopposed
National Basketball Association (NBA) Playoffs. A total of 11 teams were as it greatly increases their chances of scoring. Likewise in defence they should
included (Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Chicago Bulls, be looking to ensure that whatever defensive structure is employed, it limits the
Figure 3: The affect of shot position and outcome
Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, New chances of attacking teams to gain open
York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Denver
Nuggets). There was also found to be no significant relationship between the number of passes and shot
position X² (6, N= 1035) = 5.943, p = .430
Chi-squared analysis using IBM SPSS statistics 19 was used to analyse Although not a statistically significant finding, analysis showed that 3-4 passes lead to the
date. most shooting opportunities in the key at 42.4% (SR = .0) followed by 1-2 passes at 34.6%%
The variables recorded were: (SR = 1.1)
1.The number of passes in the lead up to a shot on goal*
2.Shot position. The court was divided into three possible shooting areas:
the key, zone and outside (Figure 1)
3.Opposition pressure: classified as an opponent getting within one arm
length of the ball at point of release
4.The outcome of the shot, one of three outcomes was recorded: a
successful shot, an unsuccessful shot or a free throw attempt. Should an
opponent happen to successfully block or reject a shot it was recorded as
an unsuccessful shot.
*only passing passages originating from the attacking teams defensive
baseline resulting in a shot on goal or free throw were included. Plays that Figure 2: the affect of opposition pressure on shot
lead to turnovers, fouls (offensive or defensive), time-out’s etc. were not outcome.
included.
Intra-reliability testing returned a Kappa value of 0.977, indicating a very Chi-square testing also found a relationship between shot position and
good strength of agreement. shot outcome X²(4, N = 1035) = 63.249, p = < .001 (Figure 3).
Of all free throws 79.5% (SR= 6.4) were awarded when attacking in
the key. The key also accounted for 40.6% (SR= -.5) of successful
shots (the highest of the outcome variables).
REFERENCES
1)Fernandez, J et al. Int. J Sport Psych. 28: 65 2010
2) Stavroppulos, N and Foundalis, H. Inquiries in Sports & Phys.
Ed. 3: 298-304 2005
3) Fernandez R, Ducoing, E. Iberian Congress on Basketball .
Research. 4: 58-60, 2007
4)Alvarez, A et al. Iberian Congress on Basketball Research. 18:
370-384 2009
5)Piette, J et al. J. Quantitative Anal. In Sport. 6: 1-23 2010
Figure 1: the three court zones according the rules of
basketball(1)