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Prediction vs Causality: The Difference Explained
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János Divényi
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Slides from Budapest BI Forum 2018-11-14
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Prediction vs Causality: The Difference Explained
1.
PREDICTION VS CAUSALITY
2.
JÁNOS DIVÉNYI lead data
scientist @Emarsys PhD candidate in economics @CEU @divenyijanos
3.
4.
IGNAZ SEMMELWEIS
5.
0 5 10 15 20 1841 1842 1843
1844 1845 1846 Mortalityrate(%) First Clinic Second Clinic
6.
Pr(Y|X) à xgboost Y:
mother dies X: temperature, midwife/doctor, etc.
7.
Pr(Y|X) à xgboost Y:
mother dies X: temperature, midwife/doctor, etc.
8.
Pr(Y|X) à xgboost Y:
mother dies X: temperature, midwife/doctor, etc. ACCURACY 50%+
9.
SAVIOR OF MOTHERS
10.
booking.com
11.
CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY
CAUSATION
12.
xkcd.com/552
13.
PREDICTION VS CAUSALITY
14.
PREDICTION VS CAUSALITY
15.
PREDICTION VS CAUSALITY
16.
17.
qz.com
18.
qz.com
19.
DEEP LEARNING IS
JUST CURVE FITTING DEEP LEARNING IS JUST CURVE FITTING
20.
JUDEA PEARL Turing Award quantamagazine.org ”DEEP LEARNING IS
JUST CURVE FITTING”
21.
22.
23.
Buying probability
24.
Buying probability Reaction to incentives
25.
Buying probability Reaction to incentives
26.
27.
28.
CORRELATION IS GOOD
FOR PREDICTION CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSALITY CAUSAL DISCOVERY IS OFTEN CUMBERSOME
29.
CORRELATION IS GOOD
FOR PREDICTION CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSALITY CAUSAL DISCOVERY IS OFTEN CUMBERSOME
30.
CORRELATION IS GOOD
FOR PREDICTION CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSALITY CAUSAL DISCOVERY IS OFTEN CUMBERSOME
31.
THANKS @divenyijanos
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