Prediction versus Causality

•

0 likes•331 views

János Divényi

Slides from Budapest BI Forum 2018-11-14

Data & Analytics

JÁNOS DIVÉNYI
lead data scientist @Emarsys
PhD candidate in economics @CEU
@divenyijanos

0
5
10
15
20
1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846
Mortalityrate(%)
First Clinic
Second Clinic

Pr(Y|X) à xgboost
Y: mother dies
X: temperature, midwife/doctor, etc.

Pr(Y|X) à xgboost
Y: mother dies
X: temperature, midwife/doctor, etc.
ACCURACY
50%+

DEEP LEARNING IS JUST
CURVE FITTING
DEEP LEARNING IS JUST
CURVE FITTING

JUDEA PEARL
Turing Award
quantamagazine.org
”DEEP
LEARNING
IS JUST
CURVE
FITTING”

Buying
probability
Reaction
to incentives

CORRELATION IS GOOD FOR PREDICTION
CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSALITY
CAUSAL DISCOVERY IS OFTEN CUMBERSOME

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Prediction versus Causality

1. PREDICTION VS CAUSALITY

2. JÁNOS DIVÉNYI lead data scientist @Emarsys PhD candidate in economics @CEU @divenyijanos

4. IGNAZ SEMMELWEIS

5. 0 5 10 15 20 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 Mortalityrate(%) First Clinic Second Clinic

6. Pr(Y|X) à xgboost Y: mother dies X: temperature, midwife/doctor, etc.

7. Pr(Y|X) à xgboost Y: mother dies X: temperature, midwife/doctor, etc.

8. Pr(Y|X) à xgboost Y: mother dies X: temperature, midwife/doctor, etc. ACCURACY 50%+

9. SAVIOR OF MOTHERS

10. booking.com

11. CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION

12. xkcd.com/552

13. PREDICTION VS CAUSALITY

14. PREDICTION VS CAUSALITY

15. PREDICTION VS CAUSALITY

16.

17. qz.com

18. qz.com

19. DEEP LEARNING IS JUST CURVE FITTING DEEP LEARNING IS JUST CURVE FITTING

20. JUDEA PEARL Turing Award quantamagazine.org ”DEEP LEARNING IS JUST CURVE FITTING”

21.

22.

23. Buying probability

24. Buying probability Reaction to incentives

25. Buying probability Reaction to incentives

26.

27.

28. CORRELATION IS GOOD FOR PREDICTION CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSALITY CAUSAL DISCOVERY IS OFTEN CUMBERSOME

29. CORRELATION IS GOOD FOR PREDICTION CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSALITY CAUSAL DISCOVERY IS OFTEN CUMBERSOME

30. CORRELATION IS GOOD FOR PREDICTION CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSALITY CAUSAL DISCOVERY IS OFTEN CUMBERSOME

31. THANKS @divenyijanos

Prediction versus Causality

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