This presentation explores the concept of certainty and the limitations of our perception. It discusses how our minds are wired to make quick judgments, sometimes leading to overconfidence and certainty. It draws examples from neuroscience, psychology, and physics to challenge the idea of absolute certainty and advocates for humility and a "seek to understand" mindset when dealing with differing opinions. Ultimately, it suggests that changing someone's mind is about creating the conditions for them to change it themselves.

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Wired: The Science
Behind Changing a Mind
Scott Hajer
www.linkedin.com/in/scotthajer
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A Preface
• In July 2022 I read an incredible book called “How Minds Change: The
Surprising Science of Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion” by David
McRaney.
• I was so excited about what I learned that I shared the most compelling
stories with people I know, who were equally intrigued.
• In September 2022, I put together this presentation for Pariveda’s
internal learning event to share highlights from the book, along with
some insights I gleaned and connections I made from additional
research.
• At the time I did not footnote things, because it was spoken and I never
intended to publish. Consequently, when in doubt here, just assume the
thoughts are David McRaney’s, because this work is very much
derivative.
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The observer, when he seems
to himself to be observing a
stone, is really observing the
effects of the stone upon
himself…
-Bertrand Russell
Have you ever wondered why some people seem to hold so strongly to a belief or opinion that you
so clearly see as wrong? Maybe it’s an opinion about whether we implement gun control or
whether we should harden schools. Or maybe it’s one where the facts are obvious and – seemingly
– undebatable? Like whether the Earth is round or flat.
I know I’ve wondered…. And that wondering led me to dig into it.
I’d like to share with you some of what I learned, and how you might go about using it to change a
mind.
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Actual quote: The observer, when he seems to himself to be observing a stone, is really, if physics is
to be believed, observing the effects of the stone upon himself…
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We can be blind to
things that we have
not previously been
exposed to
A startling study about foundations of perception
In the early 1960’s, two Harvard neurophysiologists conducted a series of experiments to better
understand brain development. In one experiment, they raised two groups of cats. One group was
raised in an environment consisting entirely of vertical lines – the walls had vertical stripes, anyone
who interacted with the cats wore clothing with vertical stripes. The second group was raised
similarly, but in a horizontal world.
So what happened?
When they then put these cats in a normal environment, they were blind to the lines that didn’t
exist in the world in which they were raised. The Horizontal cats could jump up on a chair to lay
down but would bump into the legs of that chair. The vertical cats, on the other hand, could
navigate the legs just fine but even if the scientists held them over a flat surface, they wouldn’t
extend their claws. They couldn’t perceive the horizontal. In fact, when the scientists moved a piece
of clear plexiglass with horizontal stripes toward the vertical cats, they just sat there and got
pushed back, like a force field.
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Image credit: Biel Morro, @bielmorro on unsplash.com
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Umwelt
The outer world as it
affects and is perceived by
the organisms inhabiting it
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Do you think those cats had any idea they were missing the horizontal or vertical from their world?
That they were missing something critical from their perception of the world? I have no idea – do
you miss the UV light you can’t see? Reindeer don’t. They can see UV light …dogs can smell
emotions.
It’s impossible to fully imagine what that would be like. How do those perceptions affect the way
those animals interpret and interact with the world? How does the environment in which you were
raised affect the way you interpret and interact with the world? What are you missing?
Umwelt – and the plural Umwelten – comes from the German word for environment. It’s often
translated as “self-centered world”. It’s the world as it’s perceived by the organisms inhabiting it.
This understanding of the idea of Umvelt is critical, because the point here is that the world doesn’t
exist for us unless we perceive it, and perception occurs in the mind… and every mind is different,
shaped in different ways by different environments and different experiences. One might say “your
umwelt IS you”. We each live in a world of our own creation, blindly unaware of all the
interpretations our brain is making for us behind the scenes.
But we had a bit of a wake up call in 2015 with…
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The Dress
Back in 2015, a woman named Cecilia Bleasdale took a photo of a dress she planned to wear to her
daughter’s wedding. After some debate among the family as to whether the dress was white and
gold or black and blue, she posted the photo on Facebook. As you probably know, it quickly became
an internet phenomenon, at one point receiving 14,000 views a second.
Why do you think this went so incredibly viral?
It’s not just because we disagreed on it. We disagree on whether pizza with ranch dressing tastes
good or which was the better movie - Infinity War or Endgame. I think that though we may be
passionate about those topics, we inherently recognize them as opinions, and maybe therefore
open to interpretation.
But the dress? …The dress got to something very core. The dress got to our sense of certainty.
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Are you certain?
• Do you think you know or
feel that you know?
• Information deficit model
• Facts are only sort of useful
You see, we walk around being unconsciously certain about things. Not questioning them.
But it’s a funny thing about that, because being right feels exactly like being wrong – until you
know you’re wrong.
The Dress showed at least some of us that we were wrong, and it shocked us.
Something I’m personally attuned to is changes in language, when word usage shifts or new
phrases enter the lexicon.
One phrase that I’ve noticed come to the forefront is “I feel”. As in
When did Lisa get married?
I feel like it was about 5 years ago.
Do you think it was about 5 years ago or do you feel that it was about 5 years ago?
Neurologist Robert Burton, in his book “On Being Certain”, describes Certainty as “a feeling:
somewhere between an emotion and a mood, more akin to hunger than to logic.” Maybe we’re
collectively beginning to realize this.
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8. Before the internet, when academics wanted to convince the public of something – they tended to
use what was called the information deficit model. The belief was that more facts, or a different
presentation of the facts would sway opinion. But the growth of the internet and with it, social
media, podcasts, youtube, etcetera – has exponentially increased the availability of facts, counter-
facts, and opinions masquerading as facts.
Facts alone don’t change minds, and if you want proof, wade into the morass of political Reddit, or
the comment section on any news site. You know what you’ll find there. A bunch of people throwing
links around and attacking each other’s character.
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Image source: Susan Q Yin, Unsplash.com https://unsplash.com/photos/BiWM-utpVVc
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Our brains are optimized for speed, not accuracy
The brain is a prediction
engine, and that’s a
good thing
Our brains are optimized for speed, not accuracy. I suppose you’d consider that an
evolutionary advantage…. Super helpful when you’re a gazelle with your head down at the
watering hole. In that situation it’s probably safest for the brain to assume that the blob in
their peripheral vision is a stalking lion, versus, say, a shadow from a moving cloud. In many
ways our brains operate beyond the reach of our consciousness as pattern-matching
machines. Silently, behind the scenes, making assumptions we’re not aware of.
Our brains are prediction engines. Building up data, and connections between that data,
over the course of our lifetimes as we develop our understanding of the world. This is a
good thing. Frankly, if our brains didn’t do this, we would have to consciously consider
everything – I lift my leg while walking and I unconsciously assume the floor beneath it is
going to stay in the same place.
Can you imagine if every time you took a step you had to pause to think, hm, where is the
floor going to be by the time my foot lands? Walking would be mentally exhausting.
Thankfully our brains make that assumption beyond our conscious awareness.
So we can see the advantages of this pattern matching and prediction.
Now - If there were an earthquake, or other structural failure, and the floor DID move, my
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10. brain would be shocked into awareness and thrown into a state of crisis trying to make sense
of the situation because the predictability has been disrupted.
We tend to be comfortable when things are predictable, when cause and effect are clearly
connected. That’s one of the reasons why complexity makes us uncomfortable.
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Image source: unsplash.com - mathew-schwartz-sb7RUrRMaC4-unsplash
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heuristic
Mental shortcut that
allows us to make
decisions or solve a
problem quickly, with
minimal mental effort
Though I haven’t yet used this word, this idea of speed over accuracy is about heuristics - mental
shortcuts that allow us to make decisions or solve a problem quickly, with minimal mental effort.
Without them we’d find it incredibly difficult to function.
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The downside of heuristics
This tendency toward
speed over accuracy
leads us into
dangerous territory
However, heuristics are also problematic. As you can imagine, they progress us quickly down an
unconscious path, jumping from observed data to a conclusion without any reflection.
But in the real world, complex problems abound. When it comes to social issues, for instance, the
causes are complex, and the consequences are unpredictable. This recognition that complexity
abounds is embedded in the Architect persona of Pariveda’s Expectations Framework, particularly
as it reflects increasingly higher levels of systems thinking.
This type of thinking requires attention and focus to develop. As Rob McNamara points out in “The
Elegant Self”, “…adult development is participatory in nature.” Whereas for babies and children it
just sort of happens, for adults development “progressively shifts toward you participating more
consciously with the growth of your mind. [and] when you fail to actively participate… distortions
become common features.” What you see in society is the result of these distortions, because they
“lead us to be overconfident in our understanding of the issues…” That overconfidence translates to
certainty, and that certainty can lead to supporting extreme views.
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Image Source: Ansgar Sheffold, Unspash.com, https://unsplash.com/photos/ap_jGgL225M
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Not referenced in presentation but good model that exposes thinking: Argyris’s Ladder of Inference
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Genuine humility and
seeking to understand
are key
Earlier this month, the Nobel Prize for Physics was awarded to three physicists for their
“experiments with entangled photons”. It’s beyond the scope of this presentation – and definitely
beyond my ability to clearly explain the research – but essentially what these scientists have proven
is that the universe is not locally real. The evidence shows that “[objects] may lack definite
properties prior to measurement”
In other words, the apple isn’t red until someone sees it. (and, as we’ve learned, maybe it’s not
even red)
What I’ve been trying to demonstrate through the course of this presentation are some ways in
which the normal functioning brain is wired and how that wiring might mislead us without our
knowing. I’ve been attempting to show that maybe we should be a little bit less certain.
I am advocating here for humility, and I am expressing the Why behind how critical it is to maintain
a seek to understand mindset and… to seek to understand.
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After hearing this, maybe it sounds like the mind I was trying to change was yours. Maybe –
because accepting some of the premises I’ve laid out is how you begin to approach changing
someone else’s mind. However, the fact is you can’t actually change someone’s mind. What you
CAN do is set up the circumstances wherein they may change it themselves.
For more information on the various methods for doing that I cannot recommend highly enough
the full book “How Minds Change: The Surprising Science of Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion” by
David McRaney. In it he covers various ways to change someone’s mind, depending on the nature
of the belief you’re trying to change. Additionally, check out his podcast “You Are not So Smart”,
which fascinates me weekly.
. . . . . . . .
To connect with me, or even better, talk about this topic, reach out on LinkedIn. I’m at
www.linkedin.com/in/scotthajer
To learn more about Pariveda Solutions and the type of problems our firm solves, please visit
www.parivedasolutions.com
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