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- 2. What is a Successful TechnologyWhat is a Successful Technology Strategy?Strategy? VALUEVALUE CAPTURECAPTURE VALUEVALUE DELIVERYDELIVERY VALUEVALUE CREATIONCREATION
- 3. Effective Strategies Answer 3 Key Questions:Effective Strategies Answer 3 Key Questions: How will we Create value? How will we Deliver value? How will we Capture value?
- 4. Successful strategies are dynamic How will we Create value? How will we Deliver value? How will we Capture value?
- 5. And have real resources in place behind them….
- 6. Why have a strategy? 1. To make choices
- 8. Why is it so hard to killWhy is it so hard to kill project #26?project #26? • It’s a “good” project!It’s a “good” project! • Good managers can meet stretch goalsGood managers can meet stretch goals (and I’m a good manager)(and I’m a good manager) • Making difficult decisions takes time & energyMaking difficult decisions takes time & energy It’s very hard to kill projects without a strategyIt’s very hard to kill projects without a strategy
- 9. Reasons to have aReasons to have a strategy:strategy: 2. To be able to change it2. To be able to change it
- 10. A Key Framework: The industry life cycleA Key Framework: The industry life cycle Era of Ferment/ Disruption “Dominant design” emerges Incremental Innovation Maturity
- 11. The Industry Life Cycle as an S curveThe Industry Life Cycle as an S curve Performance Takeoff Maturity Ferment Time Discontinuity
- 12. The S-curve Maps Major TransitionsThe S-curve Maps Major Transitions Performance Takeoff Maturity Ferment Discontinuity Time
- 13. Transitions often challengeTransitions often challenge existing organizations severelyexisting organizations severely
- 14. But they also create major opportunityBut they also create major opportunity • Corning glass – Cookware to optical fiber • HP – Instrumentation to computers • IBM – Mainframes to PCs to Services • Merck – “Random” drug discovery to genetics and genomics
- 15. Understanding the life cycle is criticalUnderstanding the life cycle is critical since itsince it shapes strategic choices:shapes strategic choices: Takeoff Maturity Ferment Technology Markets Competition Organization
- 16. Course Outline:Course Outline: • How will we create value? – PDAs, EMI and the Cat Scanner • How will we capture value? – Surface Logix, Abgenix, Ember, Mercury • How will we deliver value? – Siemens, Intel, Synthes, XTV, P&G, Alza/Ciba • Actually Doing Strategy – Kirkham Instruments, Kodak, Nokia
- 17. S curves and Technological trajectoriesS curves and Technological trajectories • Read: Foster, R. (1986). "The S-curve: A New Forecasting Tool." • Think: What determines the limits of an S curve? Can such limits be determined ex post? How would one determine what to map on the vertical axis of an S curve? • Try: On the course web site you will find an excel program that contains performance specifications for nearly every PDA ever introduced. Draw one or more S curves for the industry. Speculate about the ndustry’s future evolution.
- 18. Next class: First 2 page paper due the following week. • Use the next class to choose an industry or firm. • Plot and describe the relevant S curve(s) for your industry. Is the industry likely to be subject to “natural technological limits”? Why or why not? Has it experienced “discontinuities”? Is it likely to do so soon?