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Highlights of the
    2011 Franchise Business
    	 	 Economic	Outlook	
                                                                                                                   January 2011
    IntrOductIOn
    The 2011 Franchised Business Economic Outlook projects key national-level economic measurements of business format
    franchises. The report was prepared by PwC for the International Franchise association’s (IFa) Educational Foundation.*

    The 2011 Outlook reflects a new base year (2007), the latest year for which comprehensive estimates of franchise
    business activity are available. The baseline data was drawn from the first ever u.S. Census Bureau’s 2007
    Economic Census Franchise report, which contains information on franchise and non-franchise establishments,
    sales, employment and payroll in selected industries for businesses with paid employees. For the 2011 Outlook, PwC
    supplemented these data with estimates of franchise activities in additional industries and in businesses without paid
    employees (primarily self-employed individuals operating small, unincorporated businesses). Estimates of franchising
    activity in the 2011 report supersede previous editions.
    	
    HIgHlIgHts	Of	tHE	rEpOrt
    Franchise businesses are poised for stronger growth in 2011, according to the 2011 Franchise Business Economic
    Outlook. as the economy recovers from the “Great recession,” PwC predicts a rebound in the number of
    establishments, jobs and economic output in the franchise industry.
    •	 Jobs. The number of direct jobs is projected to grow 2.5 percent from an estimated 7,614,000 to 7,808,000,
       creating 194,000 new jobs.
    •	 Establishments.	the number of franchise establishments will grow 2.5 percent in 2011 from an estimated
       765,723 to 784,802—an increase of 19,079 new establishments.
    •	 Output. The 2011 Outlook estimates that Economic output—the gross value of goods and services a business
       produces—is projected to grow 4.7 percent or $33.3 billion from an estimated $706.6 billion to $739.9 billion.


1       francHIsE	BusInEss	EcOnOmIc	OutlOOk,	2007-2011                                                           Source: PwC
        	       	       	      	        	      	          	
                        Estimates                                        Forecast        Annual Percent Change
        	               	           	          	
                        2007        2008       2009           2010       2011            2009-2010        2010-2011
        Establishments	 788,285	    791,560	   763,094	       765,723	   784,802	        0.3%	            2.5%
        Employment		    7,760	      7,792	     7,572	         7,614	     7,808	          0.6%	            2.5%
        (Thousands)
        Output	         $654.2	     $680.7	    $683.2	        $706.6	    $739.9	         3.4%	            4.7%
        (Billions)

    dIffErEnt	EffEcts	On	francHIsE	BusInEss	sEctOrs

    •	 Employment.	all franchise business lines except for Business Services are projected to experience
       employment growth in 2011, ranging from 1.1 percent to 4.4 percent, with the largest increases occurring in
       Lodging (4.4 percent), automotive (3.9 percent) and retail Products and Services (3.9 percent). The Business
       Services line is projected to experience a modest decline in employment of 0.2 percent in 2011.

    •	 Establishments. With the exception of Business Services, the number of establishments in each business
       format franchise line is estimated to increase in 2011. The largest gains are expected in Lodging (4.4 percent),
       automotive (3.9 percent) and retail Products and Services (3.9 percent).

    •	 Output. Output is forecast to increase in all 10 franchise lines of business in 2011. The three franchise business
       lines projected to see the largest percentage increases are automotive (7.2 percent), Commercial and residential
       Services (6.9 percent), and Personal Services (6.5 percent).
                                                                                                                 Continued >>
Page 2 of 2
2       francHIsE	BusInEss	EcOnOmIc	OutlOOk	By	BusInEss	lInEs:	2011                                                                                                                                                                                   Source: PwC
         	                                                      	                                                   	                                                                              	                                       	                 	                 	
                                                                    Establishments                                      Employment                                                                      Output
                                                                                                                        (Thousands)                                                                     (Billions of dollars)

         Business Lines                                             Amount        Period change                         Amount                     Period change                                       Amount                     Period change
                                                                                  over prior year                                                  over prior year                                                                over prior year

         	                                                           	               	                                  	
         Automotive	                                                 31,659	                 3.9%	                        185	                             3.9%	                                        $39.7	                         7.2%
         Commercial	&	Residential	Services	                          70,129	                 3.7%	                        281	                             3.7%	                                        $45.8	                         6.9%
         Quick	Service	Restaurants	                                 152,665	                 2.6%	                      2,982	                             2.6%	                                       $194.0	                         4.9%
         Table/Full	Service	Restaurants	                             33,471	                 2.3%	                      1,003	                             2.3%	                                        $55.7	                         4.6%
         Retail	Food	                                                60,841	                 3.2%	                        484	                             3.2%	                                        $38.2	                         6.2%
         Lodging	                                                    26,011	                 4.4%	                        711	                             4.4%	                                        $70.8	                         4.0%
         Real	Estate	                                                86,825	                 1.1%	                        341	                             1.1%	                                        $51.2	                         0.1%
         Retail	Products	&	Services	                                 99,592	                 3.9%	                        402	                             3.9%	                                        $29.5	                         5.7%
         Business	Services	                                          92,714	                -0.2%	                        819	                            -0.2%	                                       $128.7	                         3.5%
         Personal	Services	                                         130,895	                 2.5%	                        602	                             2.5%	                                        $86.2	                         6.5%

                                       Total               784,802                       2.5%                       7,808                             2.5%                                         $739.9                          4.7%



     francHIsE	BusInEss	grOWtH	In	2010-2011:					 4                                                                     EcOnOmIc	Output	2007-2011:	
3                                                                                                                       francHIsE	BusInEssEs	cOmparEd	tO	all	BusInEssEs
     a	cOmparIsOn
                                                                                              Source: PwC
                                                                                                                                            Economic	
  Output	
  2007-­‐2011	
   PwC
                                                                                                                                                                           Source:
    5.0%	
  
                                                                                                                              5	
  
    4.5%	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4.7	
  %	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                           4.3	
  %	
  
    4.0%	
                                                                                                                                         4.1	
  %	
  
                                                                                                                              4	
                                                                                                     4	
  %	
  
    3.5%	
  
                                                                                                                                                   3.2	
  %	
                                               3.4	
  %	
  
    3.0%	
                                                                                                                    3	
  
    2.5%	
                                                                                           2010	
  
    2.0%	
                                                                                           2011	
                   2	
                                                                                                                        Franchising	
  
    1.5%	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               All	
  Business	
  
    1.0%	
                                                                                                                    1	
  
    0.5%	
                                                                                                                                                                     0.4	
  %	
  
    0.0%	
                                                                                                                    0	
  
                  Establishments	
             Employment	
                    Output	
                                                                                        -­‐0.5	
  %	
  
                                                                                                                            -­‐1	
  
                                                                                                                                           2007-­‐2008	
               2008-­‐2009	
               2009-­‐2010	
              2010-­‐2011	
  


       *The report presents PwC’s forecast for establishments,
       employment and economic output for 10 business lines in                                                          EmplOymEnt:	2007-2011
                                                                                                                5
       which franchising is prevalent:                                                                                  francHIsE	BusInEssEs	cOmparEd	tO	all	BusInEssEs

        •	     automotive
                                                                                                                                                     Employment	
  2007-­‐2011	
   PwC
                                                                                                                                                                              Source:
        •	     Commercial & residential Services
                                                                                                                                  3	
  
        •	     Quick Service restaurants                                                                                                                                                                                               2.5	
  %	
  
                                                                                                                                  2	
  
        •	     Table/Full Service restaurants                                                                                                                                                                                          1.7	
  %	
  
                                                                                                                                  1	
  
        •	     retail Food                                                                                                                           0.4	
  %	
                                             0.6	
  %	
  
                                                                                                                                  0	
  
        •	     Lodging                                                                                                                               -­‐0.8	
  %	
                                          -­‐0.6	
  %	
  
                                                                                                                                -­‐1	
  
        •	     real Estate                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Franchising	
  
                                                                                                                                -­‐2	
  
        •	     retail Products and Services                                                                                                                                                                                                              All	
  Business	
  
                                                                                                                                -­‐3	
                                           -­‐2.8	
  %	
  
        •	     Business Services
                                                                                                                                -­‐4	
  
        •	     Personal Services
                                                                                                                                -­‐5	
                                           -­‐5	
  %	
  

       The report does not include estimates for product                                                                        -­‐6	
  
                                                                                                                                            2007-­‐2008	
               2008-­‐2009	
               2009-­‐2010	
              2010-­‐2011	
  
       distribution franchises such as automotive and truck
       dealers, gasoline service stations, and beverage bottling.

       The full 2011 Economic Outlook report can be found at                                                                 1501 K Street, n.W., Suite 350
       www.franchise.org/2011Outlook.aspx.                                                                                          Washington, DC 20005
                                                                                                                                    Phone (202) 628-8000
       For more information, contact IFa at 202/628-8000 or                                                                            Fax (202) 628-0812
       email ifa@franchise.org.                                                                                                         www.franchise.org

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Franchising Economic Outlook 2011

  • 1. Highlights of the 2011 Franchise Business Economic Outlook January 2011 IntrOductIOn The 2011 Franchised Business Economic Outlook projects key national-level economic measurements of business format franchises. The report was prepared by PwC for the International Franchise association’s (IFa) Educational Foundation.* The 2011 Outlook reflects a new base year (2007), the latest year for which comprehensive estimates of franchise business activity are available. The baseline data was drawn from the first ever u.S. Census Bureau’s 2007 Economic Census Franchise report, which contains information on franchise and non-franchise establishments, sales, employment and payroll in selected industries for businesses with paid employees. For the 2011 Outlook, PwC supplemented these data with estimates of franchise activities in additional industries and in businesses without paid employees (primarily self-employed individuals operating small, unincorporated businesses). Estimates of franchising activity in the 2011 report supersede previous editions. HIgHlIgHts Of tHE rEpOrt Franchise businesses are poised for stronger growth in 2011, according to the 2011 Franchise Business Economic Outlook. as the economy recovers from the “Great recession,” PwC predicts a rebound in the number of establishments, jobs and economic output in the franchise industry. • Jobs. The number of direct jobs is projected to grow 2.5 percent from an estimated 7,614,000 to 7,808,000, creating 194,000 new jobs. • Establishments. the number of franchise establishments will grow 2.5 percent in 2011 from an estimated 765,723 to 784,802—an increase of 19,079 new establishments. • Output. The 2011 Outlook estimates that Economic output—the gross value of goods and services a business produces—is projected to grow 4.7 percent or $33.3 billion from an estimated $706.6 billion to $739.9 billion. 1 francHIsE BusInEss EcOnOmIc OutlOOk, 2007-2011 Source: PwC Estimates Forecast Annual Percent Change 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2009-2010 2010-2011 Establishments 788,285 791,560 763,094 765,723 784,802 0.3% 2.5% Employment 7,760 7,792 7,572 7,614 7,808 0.6% 2.5% (Thousands) Output $654.2 $680.7 $683.2 $706.6 $739.9 3.4% 4.7% (Billions) dIffErEnt EffEcts On francHIsE BusInEss sEctOrs • Employment. all franchise business lines except for Business Services are projected to experience employment growth in 2011, ranging from 1.1 percent to 4.4 percent, with the largest increases occurring in Lodging (4.4 percent), automotive (3.9 percent) and retail Products and Services (3.9 percent). The Business Services line is projected to experience a modest decline in employment of 0.2 percent in 2011. • Establishments. With the exception of Business Services, the number of establishments in each business format franchise line is estimated to increase in 2011. The largest gains are expected in Lodging (4.4 percent), automotive (3.9 percent) and retail Products and Services (3.9 percent). • Output. Output is forecast to increase in all 10 franchise lines of business in 2011. The three franchise business lines projected to see the largest percentage increases are automotive (7.2 percent), Commercial and residential Services (6.9 percent), and Personal Services (6.5 percent). Continued >>
  • 2. Page 2 of 2 2 francHIsE BusInEss EcOnOmIc OutlOOk By BusInEss lInEs: 2011 Source: PwC Establishments Employment Output (Thousands) (Billions of dollars) Business Lines Amount Period change Amount Period change Amount Period change over prior year over prior year over prior year Automotive 31,659 3.9% 185 3.9% $39.7 7.2% Commercial & Residential Services 70,129 3.7% 281 3.7% $45.8 6.9% Quick Service Restaurants 152,665 2.6% 2,982 2.6% $194.0 4.9% Table/Full Service Restaurants 33,471 2.3% 1,003 2.3% $55.7 4.6% Retail Food 60,841 3.2% 484 3.2% $38.2 6.2% Lodging 26,011 4.4% 711 4.4% $70.8 4.0% Real Estate 86,825 1.1% 341 1.1% $51.2 0.1% Retail Products & Services 99,592 3.9% 402 3.9% $29.5 5.7% Business Services 92,714 -0.2% 819 -0.2% $128.7 3.5% Personal Services 130,895 2.5% 602 2.5% $86.2 6.5% Total 784,802 2.5% 7,808 2.5% $739.9 4.7% francHIsE BusInEss grOWtH In 2010-2011: 4 EcOnOmIc Output 2007-2011: 3 francHIsE BusInEssEs cOmparEd tO all BusInEssEs a cOmparIsOn Source: PwC Economic  Output  2007-­‐2011   PwC Source: 5.0%   5   4.5%   4.7  %   4.3  %   4.0%   4.1  %   4   4  %   3.5%   3.2  %   3.4  %   3.0%   3   2.5%   2010   2.0%   2011   2   Franchising   1.5%   All  Business   1.0%   1   0.5%   0.4  %   0.0%   0   Establishments   Employment   Output   -­‐0.5  %   -­‐1   2007-­‐2008   2008-­‐2009   2009-­‐2010   2010-­‐2011   *The report presents PwC’s forecast for establishments, employment and economic output for 10 business lines in EmplOymEnt: 2007-2011 5 which franchising is prevalent: francHIsE BusInEssEs cOmparEd tO all BusInEssEs • automotive Employment  2007-­‐2011   PwC Source: • Commercial & residential Services 3   • Quick Service restaurants 2.5  %   2   • Table/Full Service restaurants 1.7  %   1   • retail Food 0.4  %   0.6  %   0   • Lodging -­‐0.8  %   -­‐0.6  %   -­‐1   • real Estate Franchising   -­‐2   • retail Products and Services All  Business   -­‐3   -­‐2.8  %   • Business Services -­‐4   • Personal Services -­‐5   -­‐5  %   The report does not include estimates for product -­‐6   2007-­‐2008   2008-­‐2009   2009-­‐2010   2010-­‐2011   distribution franchises such as automotive and truck dealers, gasoline service stations, and beverage bottling. The full 2011 Economic Outlook report can be found at 1501 K Street, n.W., Suite 350 www.franchise.org/2011Outlook.aspx. Washington, DC 20005 Phone (202) 628-8000 For more information, contact IFa at 202/628-8000 or Fax (202) 628-0812 email ifa@franchise.org. www.franchise.org