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Vaccines for preventing
influenza in healthy adults:
     a Cochrane review
                Clinical


         www.cochranejournalclub.com
Clinical question
What are the effects (efficacy,
effectiveness and harm) of vaccines
against influenza in healthy adults?


Source: Jefferson T, Di Pietrantonj C, Rivetti A, Bawazeer GA, Al-Ansary LA, Ferroni E.
Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults. Cochrane Database of Systematic
Reviews 2010, Issue 7. Art. No.: CD001269. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD001269.pub4.



                                  www.cochranejournalclub.com                             2
Context
• Influenza is seen as an important threat to
  health worldwide.
• Vaccines are the mainstay of its prevention.
• Each year, extensive vaccination campaigns
  cover an increasing number of age groups.
• These campaigns are costly in money and
  time.


                  www.cochranejournalclub.com    3
Methods
• This is an update of a Cochrane review, which was first published in 1999.
  It was updated previously in 2004 and 2007.
• The specialised registers of the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections
  (ARI) Group and the Cochrane Vaccines Field were used to identify trials.
  The authors also searched the following bibliographic databases, most
  recently in June 2010: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials,
  MEDLINE and EMBASE.
• A random effects model was used for the meta-analyses to calculate the
  risk ratio (RR). The vaccine efficacy (VE) was estimated using the formula
  VE =(1-RR)%. The risk difference (RD) and number needed to vaccinate
  (NNV) were also estimated from the meta-analyses.




                             www.cochranejournalclub.com                 4
PICO(S) to assess eligible studies
• Participants: Healthy individuals aged 16 to 65 years.
• Intervention: Live, attenuated or killed vaccines administered
  by any route.
• Comparison: Placebo or standard care.
• Primary outcomes: Symptomatic influenza and influenza-like
  illness (ILI) and systemic adverse effects.
• Secondary outcomes: Local adverse effects, time off work,
  hospital admissions and transmission of influenza.
• Studies: Randomized and quasi-randomized trials for efficacy
  or effectiveness, and comparative non-randomised studies for
  harms.
                        www.cochranejournalclub.com
Description of eligible studies
• Fifty eligible reports were identified and included, an increase
  of 2 over the previous version of the review.
• 40 trials (with 59 sub-studies, and more than 70,000 people)
  reported data on effectiveness, efficacy and harms of
  influenza vaccines. 20 (25 sub studies) of the trials tested
  unlicensed aerosol vaccines, which had a very modest
  performance and were not included in the meta-analyses.
• 8 comparative non-randomised studies investigated serious
  harms. Two of these could not be included in the analysis.
• The main findings of the review are based on 26 clinical trials
  of the effectiveness of inactivated vaccines and 10 studies of
  the harms of the same vaccines.
                         www.cochranejournalclub.com
Results: inactivated influenza vaccines
• The risk ratio (RR) for influenza symptoms for vaccines in which the WHO
  recommended content matched the circulating strain compared to no
  vaccine or placebo was 0.27 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.46). This gives a vaccine
  efficacy (VE) of 73% (95% CI 54% to 84%). The VE decreased to 44% (95% CI
  23% to 59%) when matching of the vaccine was incomplete or not reported
  (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41, 0.77).
• The risk difference (RD) in the case of complete matching of the vaccine is
  –0.03 (95% CI –0.05 to –0.02). This corresponds to a number needed to
  vaccinate (NNV) of 33 (ie an average of 33 healthy adults need to be
  vaccinated for one fewer to develop influenza symptoms). With incomplete
  matching or if matching was not reported, the RD was –0.01 (95% CI –0.03
  to 0.00), with a NNV of 100.


                             www.cochranejournalclub.com                 7
Efficacy of influenza vaccine in healthy adults
   (vaccine content completely matching circulating strain)
         Based on 8 clinical trials, 11,285 participants
100 healthy adults, vaccinated                            100 healthy adults, not vaccinated




      1 develops                                         4 develop
      influenza                                          influenza



                                 www.cochranejournalclub.com                           8
Efficacy of influenza vaccine in healthy adults
(vaccine content incompletely matching circulating strain or not reported)
             Based on 6 clinical trials with 10,331 participants
100 healthy adults, vaccinated                            100 healthy adults, not vaccinated




      1 develops                                         2 develop
      influenza                                          influenza



                                 www.cochranejournalclub.com                           9
Results: systemic adverse effects
•   Inactivated vaccines caused myalgia (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.11, based on research
    involving 2676 people).
•   Several non-randomised studies assessed the association between inactivated
    influenza vaccines and a variety of rare potential harms, such as cutaneous
    melanoma, primary cardiac arrest, demyelinating diseases, pulmonary function,
    oculo-respiratory syndrome, Guillan Barrè Syndrome and Bell’s Palsy, and the last
    two of these appear to be related to inactivated vaccines.
•   The occurrance of Guillan Barrè Syndrome was estimated as 1.6 to 10 extra cases
    per million vaccinated (based on surveys of more than 21 million people).
•   Bell’s Palsy was associated with administration of an intranasal inactivated virosomal
    influenza vaccine (odds ratio 84.0, 95% CI 20.1 to 351.9) within 1 to 91 days after
    vaccination. The product was withdrawn.




                                  www.cochranejournalclub.com                       10
Results: other outcomes
• Based on single studies, inactivated vaccines were not
  effective in preventing pneumonia (RR 0.59, 95% CI
  0.04 to 9.43) or hospitalisation (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.12
  to 1.12).
• They had a minimal effect on working days lost, with a
  standardized mean difference of –0.21 (95% CI –0.36
  to –0.05).
• No studies were identified which tested the effect on
  interruption of transmission.
                     www.cochranejournalclub.com     11
Results: local harms
• Inactivated vaccines caused erythema (RR 4.01, 95% CI 1.91 to
  8.41, based on 3388 observations) and tenderness or soreness
  (RR 3.11, 95% CI 2.08 to 4.66, based on 6833 observations).
• There was no statistically significant effect on arm stiffness (RR
  1.62, 95% CI 0.54 to 4.83, based on 50 observations) nor
  induration (RR 2.24, 95% CI 0.48 to 10.59, based on 543
  observations).




                          www.cochranejournalclub.com            12
Conclusions
• Influenza vaccines have a modest effect in reducing influenza
  symptoms and working days lost among healthy adults. There
  is no evidence that they affect complications (such as
  pneumonia), or transmission.
• The dramatic difference between the apparent size of the
  effect with the risk ratio (RR) and the risk difference (RD) is
  because RR is a relative measure and RD is an absolute
  measure taking account of the baseline risk of influenza.
• This baseline risk is relatively low. During the winter months
  there will be 7 episodes of ILI among 100 adults, but fewer
  than one of these is caused by influenza.
                         www.cochranejournalclub.com           13
How many influenza-like illnesses a year? How many of these are influenza?
 Based on 274 studies of influenza vaccines and 28 epidemiological studies
        from 1966 to 2007, with more than 3,000,000 participants

            100 people


                                                                           Influenza
                                                                             A or B




                                                     7 people with flu episodes
                                                        (only 1 has influenza)


                            www.cochranejournalclub.com                            14
Useful links
• Cochrane Journal Club discussion points

• Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy
  adults




                  www.cochranejournalclub.com

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Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults

  • 1. Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults: a Cochrane review Clinical www.cochranejournalclub.com
  • 2. Clinical question What are the effects (efficacy, effectiveness and harm) of vaccines against influenza in healthy adults? Source: Jefferson T, Di Pietrantonj C, Rivetti A, Bawazeer GA, Al-Ansary LA, Ferroni E. Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2010, Issue 7. Art. No.: CD001269. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD001269.pub4. www.cochranejournalclub.com 2
  • 3. Context • Influenza is seen as an important threat to health worldwide. • Vaccines are the mainstay of its prevention. • Each year, extensive vaccination campaigns cover an increasing number of age groups. • These campaigns are costly in money and time. www.cochranejournalclub.com 3
  • 4. Methods • This is an update of a Cochrane review, which was first published in 1999. It was updated previously in 2004 and 2007. • The specialised registers of the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) Group and the Cochrane Vaccines Field were used to identify trials. The authors also searched the following bibliographic databases, most recently in June 2010: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE and EMBASE. • A random effects model was used for the meta-analyses to calculate the risk ratio (RR). The vaccine efficacy (VE) was estimated using the formula VE =(1-RR)%. The risk difference (RD) and number needed to vaccinate (NNV) were also estimated from the meta-analyses. www.cochranejournalclub.com 4
  • 5. PICO(S) to assess eligible studies • Participants: Healthy individuals aged 16 to 65 years. • Intervention: Live, attenuated or killed vaccines administered by any route. • Comparison: Placebo or standard care. • Primary outcomes: Symptomatic influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) and systemic adverse effects. • Secondary outcomes: Local adverse effects, time off work, hospital admissions and transmission of influenza. • Studies: Randomized and quasi-randomized trials for efficacy or effectiveness, and comparative non-randomised studies for harms. www.cochranejournalclub.com
  • 6. Description of eligible studies • Fifty eligible reports were identified and included, an increase of 2 over the previous version of the review. • 40 trials (with 59 sub-studies, and more than 70,000 people) reported data on effectiveness, efficacy and harms of influenza vaccines. 20 (25 sub studies) of the trials tested unlicensed aerosol vaccines, which had a very modest performance and were not included in the meta-analyses. • 8 comparative non-randomised studies investigated serious harms. Two of these could not be included in the analysis. • The main findings of the review are based on 26 clinical trials of the effectiveness of inactivated vaccines and 10 studies of the harms of the same vaccines. www.cochranejournalclub.com
  • 7. Results: inactivated influenza vaccines • The risk ratio (RR) for influenza symptoms for vaccines in which the WHO recommended content matched the circulating strain compared to no vaccine or placebo was 0.27 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.46). This gives a vaccine efficacy (VE) of 73% (95% CI 54% to 84%). The VE decreased to 44% (95% CI 23% to 59%) when matching of the vaccine was incomplete or not reported (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41, 0.77). • The risk difference (RD) in the case of complete matching of the vaccine is –0.03 (95% CI –0.05 to –0.02). This corresponds to a number needed to vaccinate (NNV) of 33 (ie an average of 33 healthy adults need to be vaccinated for one fewer to develop influenza symptoms). With incomplete matching or if matching was not reported, the RD was –0.01 (95% CI –0.03 to 0.00), with a NNV of 100. www.cochranejournalclub.com 7
  • 8. Efficacy of influenza vaccine in healthy adults (vaccine content completely matching circulating strain) Based on 8 clinical trials, 11,285 participants 100 healthy adults, vaccinated 100 healthy adults, not vaccinated 1 develops 4 develop influenza influenza www.cochranejournalclub.com 8
  • 9. Efficacy of influenza vaccine in healthy adults (vaccine content incompletely matching circulating strain or not reported) Based on 6 clinical trials with 10,331 participants 100 healthy adults, vaccinated 100 healthy adults, not vaccinated 1 develops 2 develop influenza influenza www.cochranejournalclub.com 9
  • 10. Results: systemic adverse effects • Inactivated vaccines caused myalgia (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.11, based on research involving 2676 people). • Several non-randomised studies assessed the association between inactivated influenza vaccines and a variety of rare potential harms, such as cutaneous melanoma, primary cardiac arrest, demyelinating diseases, pulmonary function, oculo-respiratory syndrome, Guillan Barrè Syndrome and Bell’s Palsy, and the last two of these appear to be related to inactivated vaccines. • The occurrance of Guillan Barrè Syndrome was estimated as 1.6 to 10 extra cases per million vaccinated (based on surveys of more than 21 million people). • Bell’s Palsy was associated with administration of an intranasal inactivated virosomal influenza vaccine (odds ratio 84.0, 95% CI 20.1 to 351.9) within 1 to 91 days after vaccination. The product was withdrawn. www.cochranejournalclub.com 10
  • 11. Results: other outcomes • Based on single studies, inactivated vaccines were not effective in preventing pneumonia (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.04 to 9.43) or hospitalisation (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.12 to 1.12). • They had a minimal effect on working days lost, with a standardized mean difference of –0.21 (95% CI –0.36 to –0.05). • No studies were identified which tested the effect on interruption of transmission. www.cochranejournalclub.com 11
  • 12. Results: local harms • Inactivated vaccines caused erythema (RR 4.01, 95% CI 1.91 to 8.41, based on 3388 observations) and tenderness or soreness (RR 3.11, 95% CI 2.08 to 4.66, based on 6833 observations). • There was no statistically significant effect on arm stiffness (RR 1.62, 95% CI 0.54 to 4.83, based on 50 observations) nor induration (RR 2.24, 95% CI 0.48 to 10.59, based on 543 observations). www.cochranejournalclub.com 12
  • 13. Conclusions • Influenza vaccines have a modest effect in reducing influenza symptoms and working days lost among healthy adults. There is no evidence that they affect complications (such as pneumonia), or transmission. • The dramatic difference between the apparent size of the effect with the risk ratio (RR) and the risk difference (RD) is because RR is a relative measure and RD is an absolute measure taking account of the baseline risk of influenza. • This baseline risk is relatively low. During the winter months there will be 7 episodes of ILI among 100 adults, but fewer than one of these is caused by influenza. www.cochranejournalclub.com 13
  • 14. How many influenza-like illnesses a year? How many of these are influenza? Based on 274 studies of influenza vaccines and 28 epidemiological studies from 1966 to 2007, with more than 3,000,000 participants 100 people Influenza A or B 7 people with flu episodes (only 1 has influenza) www.cochranejournalclub.com 14
  • 15. Useful links • Cochrane Journal Club discussion points • Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults www.cochranejournalclub.com