Segway a failed innovation failed to enter the mainstream; Rogers 2003 Diffusion of Innovations as a basis of thesis presentation. EDTC 5637 Systemic Change Theory & Technology Summer 2014.

1. SEGWAY – A Failed
Innovation
Cynthia V. Anderson
EDTC 5637 Systemic Change Theory &
Technology
Summer, 2014 Webster University
andecynt@webster.edu
Segway is a battery-powered self-balancing two-wheeled
scooter priced way too high to catch on & has never found
its way into the mainstream.
Thesis: Segway® as an innovation failed to enter the
mainstream because it could not live up to the hype, too
expensive and did not move past an invention to an
innovation process as Rogers theory of innovation
describes.

2. SEGWAY – A Failed
Innovation
Anderson, Cynthia 2
“Getting a new idea
adopted, even when it has
obvious advantages, is
often very difficult” (Rogers
2003)
“I can tell you this much,
everything I’ve done so far in my
life will be insignificant if this
project is successful” ~ Dean
Kamen interview March 7, 1994
(McLean, 2001)

3. SEGWAY – A Failed Innovation
Overview
The Innovation
◦ The Difussion Process
◦ The Idea
Mass Media
Communication
Channels – Getting
the word out
◦ Kept A Secret
◦ Rumors
◦ Overreaching
Persuasion ~ forming
the favorable attitude
◦ Clues~ by influential
Chang Agents
enthusiasts pre-
release
The Big Reveal To
Journal Readers
◦ Time Magazine
Innovation Name
Reveal
What “it” will do
The Big Reveal To
Television Viewers
◦ Good Morning
America
◦ Frasier
◦ Tonight Show with Jay
LenoAnderson, Cynthia 3

4. SEGWAY – A Failed Innovation
Overview
◦ Popular Science
Award Winner
Innovation
Characteristics~
adoption determents
◦ Relative Advantage
~Proven wrong
Accidents
Disability Mobility
Compatibility
Cities Not Built around
it
◦ Complexity/Simplicit
y
Training needed
◦ Trialability
Remained unavailable
◦ Observability
Not present to observe
What the general
public did see:
Cartoons/ Poked fun
of
◦ Implementation
Glide St. Louis Tours
Anderson, Cynthia 4

5. SEGWAY – A Failed Innovation
Overview
◦ Confirmation
Disney rejects
Reinvention
The Social System
◦ Rogers Defines
◦ Equality vs. Inequality
◦ Mass Media as part of
the system
Cost
◦ Sales: Projected vs
Reality
◦ Price Projected vs
Reality
Media Messages ~
Cartoons/ Still
Poked fun of
Timeline
Restatement of
Thesis
Anderson, Cynthia 5

6. THE INNOVATION
DIFFUSSION PROCESS
Segway
Anderson, Cynthia 6

7. The Diffusion Process
THE IDEA Communicated through certain channels
over time among the members of a social system
(Rogers, 2003, p.5)
The new product moves from initial
introduction to regular purchase and use
7
Transportation
Solution
High
Efficiency
Zero
Emissions
Use
Dynamic
Stabilization
Technology
Minimal
Amount of
Space
Operate on
Pedestrian
Sidewalks &
Pathways
(Segway Inc., 2014)
Anderson, Cynthia

8. KEPT A SECRET ~
RUMORED TO CHANGE
THE WORLD
Mass Media Communication Channels
Getting The Word Out
Anderson, Cynthia 8

9. Rumors of a new Kamen invention to “Change The World” Codenamed
“Ginger” after Ginger Rogers. Previous invention to solve mobility
problem Codenamed “Fred” after Fred Astaire (Hielemann, 2001).
Anderson, Cynthia 9
(Noble, Barnes &; n.d.)

10. GETTING THE WORD OUT
OVERREACHING PERSUASION - THE FORMING OF A
FAVORABLE ATTITUDE
Mass Media Messages to the consumer: Clues given by influential
Change Agent enthusiasts prior to release
“As big a deal as the PC” ~ Steve Jobs
“Maybe Bigger than the internet” ~John
Doerr, venture capitalist behind Netscape
“The Segway Co. will be the fastest outfit
in history to reach $1 billion in sales” ~
John Doerr
10
(Hielemann, 2001)
Anderson, Cynthia

11. THE BIG REVEAL TO JOURNAL
READERS ~
INNOVATION NAME & WHAT IT
WILL DO
Mass Media Communication Channels ~
Getting The Word Out
Anderson, Cynthia 11

12. GETTING THE WORD OUT
OVERREACHING PERSUASION - THE FORMING OF A
FAVORABLE ATTITUDE CONTINUES
Mass Media Messages to the consumer by inventor Dean Kamen
revealed to the word in a Time Magazine article, December 2nd,
2001 the name of “It” is “SEGWAY”
“The Segway would revolutionize transportation
by curbing car use and relieving urban
congestion.”
“Segways will shrink cities to the point where cars
will not only be undesirable, but unnecessary”
“Segway could help solve the problem of
overpopulated cities…Cities need cars like fish
need bicycles.”
12
(Hielemann, 2001)
Anderson, Cynthia

13. THE BIG REVEAL TO
TELEVISION VIEWERS
Mass Media Communication Channels
Getting The Word Out
Anderson, Cynthia 13

14. MASS MEDIA CHANNELS
KNOWLEDGE STAGE- OVERHYPED ROLLOUT
Inventor Dean Kamen unveils the Segway Personal Transporter, a
two-wheeled, self-balancing scooter to television viewers on Good
Morning America December 3rd, 2001 (Tweney, 2009)
Anderson, Cynthia 14

15. “FRASIER” TELEVISION SHOW APR 9, 2002
SEASON 9
Niles has agreed to an experiment in which he must go everywhere
on a Segway instead of walking (Casey & Grammer, 2002).
Anderson, Cynthia 15
**See full Clip Of Scene By Clicking On Image Or Watch At The End Of The Presentation!**

16. STING, RUSSLE CROWE ON THE TONIGHT SHOW
WITH JAY LENO RIDING SEGWAYS APR 9, 2002
Russel Crowe and Sting (aka Gordon Sumner) are shown the art
of using a Segway HT by inventor Dean Kamen on the Jay Leno
show (Buddy TV, n.d.).
Anderson, Cynthia 16

17. POPULAR SCIENCE MAGAZINE'S "THE BEST OF
WHAT'S NEW AWARD” NOVEMBER 2002 ISSUE
Segway Model PT awarded in the “General Technology” category
(Popular Science, 2002)
Anderson, Cynthia 17

18. CHARACTERISTICS
Segway Innovation Adoption determinant -
Overreaching behavior change required to adopt
Anderson, Cynthia 18

19. Innovation Characteristics
All Adoption Determinants
Overreaching behavior change
required to adopt
Relative Advantages Proven Wrong
◦ 5 gyroscopes for self balancing
◦ Used by the disabled to enhance mobility
Anderson, Cynthia 19

20. Innovation Characteristics
RELATIVE ADVANTAGE:
The degree to which it is perceived to be
better than what it supersedes (Stand-up
Scooters).
The underlying principle is that the greater
the perceived relative advantage of an
innovation, the more rapid its rate of adoption
(Rogers, 2003, p. 229).
Electric, with 5 gyroscopes for
self balancing
Travel all terrain swiftly
without pollution
Speed and direction controlled
by user
Customizable to fulfill a wide-
range of activities
Used by the disabled to
enhance mobility
20Anderson, Cynthia
(Segway Inc., 2014) (Heilemann, 2001)

21. U.S. PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH FALLS OFF
A SEGWAY
Soon after Bush's tumble in 2003 all of the models on the market
were recalled because of a battery issue that caused riders to fall
off when the battery ran low. (Asher, 2010)
Anderson, Cynthia 21
Characteristics - Relative Advantage Proven Wrong – Adoption Determent

22. CONNECTICUT MAN AWARDED $10 MILLION FOR HEAD
INJURY HE SUSTAINED IN A 2009 SEGWAY ACCIDENT (NBC
CONNECTICUT 2011)
Anderson, Cynthia 22
NEW SEGWAY INC. OWNER JIMI HESELDEN, 62, DROVE HIS
TWO-WHEELED SCOOTER OFF A CLIFF AT HIS ESTATE IN
ENGLAND FALLING TO HIS DEATH RIDING A SEGWAY ON HIS
ESTATE (BROOKE, 2010)
Characteristics - Relative Advantage Proven Wrong – Adoption Determent
A Bridgeport jury has awarded $10 million to a 23-year-old man
who suffered a brain injury in a Segway accident in2009. Jury
determined NH-based Segway & 2 employees responsible for
John Ezzo's injuries

23. Accidents- injuries sustained riding Segway Severe In
Wake of Heselden’s Death
Anderson, Cynthia 23
Mary Pat McKay of the George
Washington (D.C.) University study
examines 41case reports
24% led to hospital admissions
Higher than the national rate after ER
visits for any reason.
(McKay, MD, 2010)
Characteristics - Relative Advantage Proven Wrong – Adoption Determent

24. Used by the disabled
to enhance mobility
◦ As of January 2009
(8 years after
launch) “Segway is
not yet considered a
mobility device for
people with
disabilities”
(Sawatzky, 2009, p.
7)
No significance
between wheelchair
outcome time measure
and Segway time
measure on obstacle
course (Sawatzky,
2009, p. 1)
Anderson, Cynthia 24
Relative Advantage Proven Wrong - Used by the disabled to
enhance mobility – “The Segway for people with disabilities:
meeting clients' mobility goals.” American Journal Of Physical
Medicine (Sawatzky, 2009)
Characteristics - Relative Advantage Proven Wrong – Adoption Determent

25. Capability: (assimilation into individuals life)The degree to
which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with
the existing values, past experiences, and needs of potential
adopters (Rogers, 2003, p. 240)
Cities will be built around it
◦ March 2002 (3 months after launch)
Kamen stated, “The bad news is if you
read any [local] regulation to the letter of
the law, it says we don’t belong on the
sidewalk” (Armstrong & Guidera, 2002, p.
2).
Anderson, Cynthia 25
Adoption determinant - Overreaching behavior change required to adopt – Innovation
Characteristics

26. Complexity: the degree to which an innovation is perceived
as difficult to understand and use (Rogers, 2003, p. 257)
Needed Training – Too difficult to understand
on one’s own to adopt.
Anderson, Cynthia 26
(Janssen's Travel Adventure Photos and Andy Janssen's Life History
Website, 2008)
Adoption determinant - Overreaching behavior change required to adopt – Innovation
Characteristics

27. Trialability: the degree to which an innovation may be
experimented with on a limited basis. If an innovation is trialable,
it results in less uncertainty for adoption (Rogers, 2003, p. 258).
1yr 1mon after launch, Segway
remained unavailable to consumers to
try it out
◦ “‘Should we sell it like consumer
products…?’ says Kamen. ‘It’s not clear,
so we're looking at various options’”
(Keenan, 2003, p. 42).
Anderson, Cynthia 27
Adoption determinant - Overreaching behavior change required to adopt – Innovation
Characteristics

28. Observability: the degree to which the results of an innovation
are visible to peers and personal networks creating either
positive or negative reactions (Rogers, 2003, p. 258).
Innovation was not present to
observe
Communication among
peers & personal networks
did not occur = negative
reactions.
Individuals never saw the
results of an innovation =
less likely to adopt.
Public Reaction: Look
smug/Look like a dork/don’t
want to be seen riding them;
“Company itself was a kind of
Segway” (Graham, 2009)
What the General Public
Did See
Anderson, Cynthia 28

29. Implementation when an individual/decision making
unit puts idea into use (Rogers, 2003 p. 169).
Anderson, Cynthia 29
“Segways are a great way to tour St. Louis as you can
accomplish much more sightseeing in less time than walking
tours. And, unlike bus tours, you can still get close enough to
be part of the scenery!” (Glide St. Louis Tours)

30. Confirmation: Seeks reinforcement of a decision already
made; may reverse previous decision if exposed to
conflicting messages (Rogers, p. 169)
Disney rejects Segway use in theme parks- not
approved by FDA as a medical device (Burgin,
2013).
Reinvention
Segway continues to
produce transportation
gliders for the following
target markets:
 Gliders
 Commuters
 Hunters (Shown)
 Adventurers
Anderson, Cynthia 30
(Segway Inc., 2014)

31. THE SOCIAL SYSTEM
Segway
Anderson, Cynthia 31

32. Rogers Defines The Social
System
“Social determinism or the social
construction of technology, argues that
technology is shaped by social
factors.”
“Technology is a product of society,
and is influenced by the norms and
values of the social system.”
Anderson, Cynthia 32
(Rogers, 2003, p. 148)

33. EQUALITY VS.
INEQUALITY
When a system’s structure is already very unequal, the consequences of an innovation
(especially if it is a relatively high-cost innovation) will lead to an even greater inequality in the
form of wider socioeconomic gap (Rogers 2003, P. 471)
1. “Ups have greater access to information that
creates awareness ~ Tech & business journals
discussion on the introduction of the Segway is
not mainstream’s (average consumer)source for
awareness
2. Have greater access to innovation-evaluation
information from peers ~ Evaluations of the
Segways were made from couches watching
television personalities demonstrate the product
3. “Ups” possess greater slack resources for
adopting innovations than do “downs” ~ At a price
of 5 thousand for a motorized scooter, the
mainstream public disposable income did not
meet the need
Anderson, Cynthia 33

34. Mass Media Channels As A Social System
Cartoonist continue to poke fun
34
Images is copyright protected. The copyright owner reserves all rights.
(Cartoonist Group, 2005)
Anderson, Cynthia

35. COST ~
PROJECTED SALES &
PRICE VS. REALITY
Segway’s
Anderson, Cynthia 35

36. High Price Limited Applicability & Legal
Issues
Projected Sales: 50,000 – 100,000 1st year
Reality Sales: 6,000 in the first 21 months with
only aditional10,000 units through 2004
Projected Price point: $2000 Reality: $4000
Kamen interview statement about price
differentiation: “I can’t tell you why we didn’t hit the
target” (Dumaine, 2013)
Analyst attribute poor sales to
◦ High price
◦ Limited applicability
◦ Legal issues (illegal for street or side walk use in
many cities. (Schweber, 2005)
Anderson, Cynthia 36

37. TIMELINE
Segway’s
Anderson, Cynthia 37

38. “I can tell you this much,
everything I’ve done so
far in my life will be
insignificant if this project
is successful.” ~ Dean
Kamen interview March
7, 1994 (McLean, 2001)
Segway Timeline March 1994 March 7th, 1994
Rumblings of a
mysterious project
Timeline

39. Segway woories the Federal
Government will designate
“It” as a Motor Vehicle
July 1999
Segway Founded
R&D to focus on creating
compact, maneuverable
devices to operate on
pedestrian sidewalks &
pathways
March 2001 2001
best-known backer,
venture capitalist John
Doerr forcast 50 – 100
Thousand in the 1st year of
sales
Timeline

40. Segway woories the Federal
Government will designate
“It” as a Motor Vehicle
January 2001
The first, vague details of
Kamen's supersecret
project - codenamed
"Ginger," aka "IT" were
leaked to the press in
January 2001. Because
Kamen wasn't ready to
talk about his invention,
people guessed
March 2001 2001
best-known backer,
venture capitalist John
Doerr forcast 50 – 100
Thousand in the 1st year of
sales
Timeline

41. President G. Miller Resigns;
Former President, Subaru
America
August 2001
CPSC determines
Segway is a Consumer
Product
December 2001 2002
Product launch: Good
Morning America Show
Time Magazine December
7th 2001 “Here ‘It’ Is” article
Timeline

42. Lobying efforts begin to
overturn ban from
sidewalks
March 2002
Banned in San Francisco
CA.
March 2002 2002
Motorized Scooters &
Segways are banned across
the U.S.
Timeline

43. New Owner same year dies
November 2002
Popular Science Awards
Segway “Best of What’s
New
February 2004 September 27th, 2010
Disney Banns Segways from
parks
Timeline

44. 2013
Supreme Court ended
attempts to force Disney to
permit Segways from their
parks
Timeline

45. SEGWAY – A Failed
Innovation
Cynthia V. Anderson
EDTC 5637 Systemic Change Theory &
Technology
Summer, 2014 Webster University
andecynt@webster.edu
Thesis Proven True: Segway® as an innovation, failed to
enter the mainstream because it could not live up to the
hype, too expensive and did not move past an invention to
an innovation process as Rogers Theory of innovation
describes.
Disclaimer: All material provided within this presentation is for
educational purposes only. ~ Cynthia V. Anderson

46. THANK YOU!
Anderson, Cynthia 46
As Promised! Click on the image
of Niles riding a Segway to
watch the full clip of the scene!