This was presented as the Keynote speech in the SIG conference in 2014.

1. Qing Wu, Senior Economist
October, 2014
Understanding World Economy through
Lens of Google Search Trends

2. Google
Trends:
Vodka
and
Hangover
2
Google
trends
mirror
human
behavior,
what
about
using
that
for
insights
of
economy?

3. 3
Leading
Indicator
for
Recession:
CosmeBc
Surgery
great
recession
debt
ceiling
crisis

4. 4
Leading
Indicator
for
Recession:
Underwear
Index

5. 5
IniBal
Claims
and
Unemployment
Benefits
Obama
signed
the
extension
bill
Senate
advanced
the
extension
bill

6. 6
Local
Unemployment
Search
Intensity
Unemployment
intensity
by
DMAs
(2014)

7. 7
Local
Food
Stamp
Search
Intensity
Food
stamp
search
intensity
by
DMAs
(2014)
Es>mated
poverty
rates
by
county
(2008)

8. 8
Unemployment
Search
Trends
for
Other
Countries

9. 9
ReacBons
to
Market
VolaBlity
(VIX)
buy
bond
gold
price
Money
safe

10. 10
Real
Estate:
Home
Sales
Google
trends
mirror
human
behavior
“First
4me
homebuyer
credit”
program:
2008-­‐2010

11. 11
Real
Estate:
ConstrucBon
Spending

12. 12
Auto
Sales
and
Auto
Search
Light
trucks/suv
sales
outpaced
cars!
“Cash-­‐for-­‐clunkers”
boosted
car
sales
but
not
so
much
for
searches.

13. 13
Oil
Price
and
Auto
Choices
Barrel
price
$100
starts
to
boost
Hybrid
interest
significantly!

14. 14
Currency
Exchange
Rate
VolaBlity

15. 15
E-­‐Commerce
Trends:
Varying
Paces

16. 16
E-­‐Commerce
Trend:
Heightened
Holiday
Season
Black
Friday
Cyber
Monday

17. 17
Weather’s
Impact
on
Search:
Driven
by
Behavior
April
October
Search
volume
impact
when
weather
is
colder
(-­‐10C):
consumer
electronics

18. 18
Weather’s
Impact
on
Search:
Driven
by
Weather
June
October
Search
volume
impact
when
weather
is
colder
(-­‐10C):
HVAC
&
Climate
Control

19. Takeaway: Use big data and Google trends
to get economics insights!
THANK YOU
19