Simple, but groundbreaking, and powerful policy prescription for energy transition, nationally, with applications internationally, and locally

1. Rebuild America
The future for large liquid capital
pools

2. Big problems
❑ Climate Changecost the US $100 Billion
in 2013
❑ Entering period un-managed risk- asset
values and to markets
❑ Every major scientific body on the planet
is in agreement the cause

3. Worst Case Scenarios
Potential outcomes include:
Desertification of the bread basket
City evacuations
Mass migrations
Cities flooding etc.

4. Risk management
❑ Highlights weakness in existing risk
models; extreme risk, marginal growth in
old forms
❑ If insurance catches up, will upend many
business models
❑ High risk suggests a rapid shift to a new
path

5. Need for speed
❑ 6 degree Fahrenheit shift by 2060 (World
Bank)
❑ Several analysis suggest to avoid worst
outcomes requires huge >70% emission
reduction in over next 10 years

6. Need for speed
❑ Degree of uncertainty: There exist 2-3
possibilities for immediate jeopardy, as in
6 degree Fahrenheit shift over a 5-10
year horizon?
❑ Even if <2% What benefits taking that
risk?

7. Scientific and Business
Consensus
❑ Every major scientific organization, in the
world, the World Bank, and the Pope,
President, are calling Climate Change a
real, immediate threat
❑ On the right, the remaining hold outs, a
self sufficiency movement will agree to
local energy production and jobs

8. Big problems: Market conditions
❑ American infrastructure is decaying, and
in need of upgrades
❑ Oil and Coal are volatile – with price
swings 50% in the past year, with carbon
regulation likely
❑ Will natural gas- methane be next?

9. Big problems: Market conditions
❑ Economy is quasi-stabilized; large
degree of uncertainty
❑ Recovery is low on middle class and
trade jobs
❑ Huge opportunity cost: $500 billion in
unnecessary energy spending, per year

10. What's the hold up?
❑ Banks don’t fund these deals. So they
are for people who can, and want to drop
a half year salary for future savings
❑ The pace of PACE financing, now a well
proven economic force, is still glacial

11. Where does the money come
from?
❑ It's already there. The US spends 1.2
trillion per year on energy
❑ Cutting that in half saves 600 billion per
year
❑ 15-year payout comes to 9 Trillion

12. Embrace the change
❑ Conversion to conservation and clean
energy will cost minimum $7 Trillion
❑ Requires upgrades to every structure in
the United States
❑ Climate emergency means it has to get
done- Rapidly.
❑ Aim for 5 years, miss and hit 7

13. Embrace the change
❑ Makes possible GDP growth rate
blistering 8-10%
❑ 4+ million middle class jobs, non
outsourceable
❑ Increases gov't revenues by $100s of
billions without raising taxes

14. Gov 1 : National Buildings
Standards Bill
❑ Compliance with simple energy efficiency
and local energy generation standards
❑ Energy upgrades for all American
buildings
❑ Economic boost in every state, as 100
million buildings need work

15. Gov 2 Lend Loss program
❑ Also issues $100 billion dollars lend loss
insurance covers of 1 Trillion in loans
❑ Actual loss rates are 5%- really, 0% as
any losses will get packaged into
property
❑ Payoff on insurance is 5 years; creates a
decent secondary insurance market

16. Govt 3- Training +Capacity
build
❑ 25$ Billion on training programs
❑ 500,000 paid trainings for low income
folks+ coal miners
❑ Builds capacity for training for a total of
2,000,000 trained in energy audits,
retrofits, and generation

17. Building owners:
❑ Quick approval on cheap renovation
money, upgrade to the new standard
❑ Regulation coming anyway
❑ Deal size is up to 40% appraisal value

18. Building owners:
❑ Building standard: Envelope R-20 and
windows R-8, min 35% local, emission
free energy
❑ Money used for : efficiency, cosmetic,
and local energy generation

19. Big Oil becomes Big Energy
❑ Big Oil becomes big Energy, as they are
1st financiers on gas--> energy stations
❑ Exploration dollars become alternative
generation plant dollars
❑ Oil is really too volatile anyway. It’s
clear now, alternative energy is the way.